952 resultados para Distributed Lag Non-linear Models
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The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period
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Introduction. Leaf area is often related to plant growth, development, physiology and yield. Many non-destructive models have been proposed for leaf area estimation of several plant genotypes, demonstrating that leaf length, leaf width and leaf area are closely correlated. Thus, the objective of our study was to develop a reliable model for leaf area estimation from linear measurements of leaf dimensions for citrus genotypes. Materials and methods. Leaves of citrus genotypes were harvested, and their dimensions (length, width and area) were measured. Values of leaf area were regressed against length, width, the square of length, the square of width and the product (length x width). The most accurate equations, either linear or second-order polynomial, were regressed again with a new data set; then the most reliable equation was defined. Results and discussion. The first analysis showed that the variables length, width and the square of length gave better results in second-order polynomial equations, while the linear equations were more suitable and accurate when the width and the product (length x width) were used. When these equations were regressed with the new data set, the coefficient of determination (R(2)) and the agreement index 'd' were higher for the one that used the variable product (length x width), while the Mean Absolute Percentage Error was lower. Conclusion. The product of the simple leaf dimensions (length x width) can provide a reliable and simple non-destructive model for leaf area estimation across citrus genotypes.
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Objetivou-se com este trabalho, desenvolver modelos de programação não-linear para sistematização de terras, aplicáveis para áreas com formato regular e que minimizem a movimentação de terra, utilizando o software GAMS para o cálculo. Esses modelos foram comparados com o Método dos Quadrados Mínimos Generalizado, desenvolvido por Scaloppi & Willardson (1986), sendo o parâmetro de avaliação o volume de terra movimentado. Concluiu-se que, ambos os modelos de programação não-linear desenvolvidos nesta pesquisa mostraram-se adequados para aplicação em áreas regulares e forneceram menores valores de movimentação de terra quando comparados com o método dos quadrados mínimos.
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We continue our discussion of the q-state Potts models for q less than or equal to 4, in the scaling regimes close to their critical and tricritical points. In a previous paper, the spectrum and full S-matrix of the models on an infinite line were elucidated; here, we consider finite-size behaviour. TBA equations are proposed for all cases related to phi(21) and phi(12) perturbations of unitary minimal models. These are subjected to a variety of checks in the ultraviolet and infrared limits, and compared with results from a recently-proposed non-linear integral equation. A non-linear integral equation is also used to study the flows from tricritical to critical models, over the full range of q. Our results should also be of relevance to the study of the off-critical dilute A models in regimes 1 and 2. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.
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We discuss in this paper equations describing processes involving non-linear and higher-order diffusion. We focus on a particular case (u(t) = 2 lambda (2)(uu(x))(x) + lambda (2)u(xxxx)), which is put into analogy with the KdV equation. A balance of nonlinearity and higher-order diffusion enables the existence of self-similar solutions, describing diffusive shocks. These shocks are continuous solutions with a discontinuous higher-order derivative at the shock front. We argue that they play a role analogous to the soliton solutions in the dispersive case. We also discuss several physical instances where such equations are relevant.
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We couple non-linear sigma-models to Liouville gravity, showing that integrability properties of symmetric space models still hold for the matter sector. Using similar arguments for the fermionic counterpart, namely Gross-Neveu-type models, we verify that such conclusions must also hold for them, as recently suggested.
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We obtain the exact classical algebra obeyed by the conserved non-local charges in bosonic non-linear sigma models. Part of the computation is specialized for a symmetry group O(N). As it turns out the algebra corresponds to a cubic deformation of the Kac-Moody algebra. We generalize the results for the presence of a Wess-Zumino term. The algebra is very similar to the previous one, now containing a calculable correction of order one unit lower. The relation with Yangians and the role of the results in the context of Lie-Poisson algebras are also discussed.
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We present a simple mathematical model of a wind turbine supporting tower. Here, the wind excitation is considered to be a non-ideal power source. In such a consideration, there is interaction between the energy supply and the motion of the supporting structure. If power is not enough, the rotation of the generator may get stuck at a resonance frequency of the structure. This is a manifestation of the so-called Sommerfeld Effect. In this model, at first, only two degrees of freedom are considered, the horizontal motion of the upper tip of the tower, in the transverse direction to the wind, and the generator rotation. Next, we add another degree of freedom, the motion of a free rolling mass inside a chamber. Its impact with the walls of the chamber provides control of both the amplitude of the tower vibration and the width of the band of frequencies in which the Sommerfeld effect occur. Some numerical simulations are performed using the equations of motion of the models obtained via a Lagrangian approach.
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The edges detection model by a non-linear anisotropic diffusion, consists in a mathematical model of smoothing based in Partial Differential Equation (PDE), alternative to the conventional low-pass filters. The smoothing model consists in a selective process, where homogeneous areas of the image are smoothed intensely in agreement with the temporal evolution applied to the model. The level of smoothing is related with the amount of undesired information contained in the image, i.e., the model is directly related with the optimal level of smoothing, eliminating the undesired information and keeping selectively the interest features for Cartography area. The model is primordial for cartographic applications, its function is to realize the image preprocessing without losing edges and other important details on the image, mainly airports tracks and paved roads. Experiments carried out with digital images showed that the methodology allows to obtain the features, e.g. airports tracks, with efficiency.
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Includes bibliography
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Numerical modeling of the interaction among waves and coastal structures is a challenge due to the many nonlinear phenomena involved, such as, wave propagation, wave transformation with water depth, interaction among incident and reflected waves, run-up / run-down and wave overtopping. Numerical models based on Lagrangian formulation, like SPH (Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics), allow simulating complex free surface flows. The validation of these numerical models is essential, but comparing numerical results with experimental data is not an easy task. In the present paper, two SPH numerical models, SPHysics LNEC and SPH UNESP, are validated comparing the numerical results of waves interacting with a vertical breakwater, with data obtained in physical model tests made in one of the LNEC's flume. To achieve this validation, the experimental set-up is determined to be compatible with the Characteristics of the numerical models. Therefore, the flume dimensions are exactly the same for numerical and physical model and incident wave characteristics are identical, which allows determining the accuracy of the numerical models, particularly regarding two complex phenomena: wave-breaking and impact loads on the breakwater. It is shown that partial renormalization, i.e. renormalization applied only for particles near the structure, seems to be a promising compromise and an original method that allows simultaneously propagating waves, without diffusion, and modeling accurately the pressure field near the structure.
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A transmission line digital model is developed direct in the phase and time domains. The successive modal transformations considered in the three-phase representation are simplified and then the proposed model can be easily applied to several operation condition based only on the previous knowing of the line parameters, without a thorough theoretical knowledge of modal analysis. The proposed model is also developed based on lumped elements, providing a complete current and voltage profile at any point of the transmission system. This model makes possible the modeling of non-linear power devices and electromagnetic phenomena along the transmission line using simple electric circuit components, representing a great advantage when compared to several models based on distributed parameters and inverse transforms. In addition, an efficient integration method is proposed to solve the system of differential equations resulted from the line modeling by lumped elements, thereby making possible simulations of transient and steady state using a wide and constant integration step. © 2012 IEEE.
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Studies investigating the use of random regression models for genetic evaluation of milk production in Zebu cattle are scarce. In this study, 59,744 test-day milk yield records from 7,810 first lactations of purebred dairy Gyr (Bos indicus) and crossbred (dairy Gyr × Holstein) cows were used to compare random regression models in which additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled using orthogonal Legendre polynomials or linear spline functions. Residual variances were modeled considering 1, 5, or 10 classes of days in milk. Five classes fitted the changes in residual variances over the lactation adequately and were used for model comparison. The model that fitted linear spline functions with 6 knots provided the lowest sum of residual variances across lactation. On the other hand, according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC), a model using third-order and fourth-order Legendre polynomials for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects, respectively, provided the best fit. However, the high rank correlation (0.998) between this model and that applying third-order Legendre polynomials for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects, indicates that, in practice, the same bulls would be selected by both models. The last model, which is less parameterized, is a parsimonious option for fitting dairy Gyr breed test-day milk yield records. © 2013 American Dairy Science Association.
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Background: Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed, neglected parasite that can cause malaria and death in tropical areas. It is associated with an estimated 80-300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms could play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and non-vector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Considering that the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda calls for novel strategies to eliminate malaria transmission locally, we used mathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector is present but malaria is absent. Methodology/Principal Findings: The Ross-Macdonald model and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized using newly collected data and data from the literature. The basic reproduction number (R0) estimated employing Ross-Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reported since 1980. In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroborated the absence of malaria transmission. In addition, the diffuse competition mechanism was negatively correlated with the risk of malaria transmission, which suggests a protective effect provided by the forest ecosystem. There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation between the mechanism of dead-end transmission of parasites and the risk of malaria transmission, suggesting a protective effect only under certain circumstances (e.g., a high abundance of wild warm-blooded animals). Conclusions/Significance: To achieve biological conservation and to eliminate Plasmodium parasites in human populations, the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda should take biodiversity issues into consideration. © 2013 Laporta et al.
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The objective of the present study was to evaluate the genetic and non-genetic effects that influencevigor at birth and preweaning mortality in Nellore calves. A total of 11,727 records of births that occurred between 1978 and 2006, offspring of 363 sires, were analyzed. Poor calf vigor at birth (VB) and preweaning mortality divided into stillbirth (SB), early mortality (EM) and total mortality (TM) were analyzed as binary variables. Generalized linear models were used for the evaluation of non-genetic effects and generalized linear mixed models for genetic effects (sire and animal models). The incidences were 4.75% for VB, 2.66% for SB, 5.28% for EM, and 7.99% for TM. Birth weight was the effect that most influenced the traits studied. Calves weighing less than 22kg(females) and less than 24kg (males) were at a higher risk of low vigor and preweaning mortality. Preweaning mortality was higher among calves born from cows aged .3 and .11 years at calving compared with cows aged 7 to 10 years. Male calves presented less vigor and higher preweaning mortality than female calves. Selection for postweaning weight did not influence preweaning mortality. The heritability estimates ranged between 0.01 and 0.09 for VB, 0.00 and 0.27 for SB, 0.03 and 0.17 for EM and 0.02 and 0.10 for TM. Stillbirth should be included as a selection criterion in breeding programs of Nellore cattle, alone or as part of a selection index, aiming to reduce preweaning mortality. © 2013 Sociedade Brasileira de Zootecnia.