A proposal to revive the European Fiscal Framework. Bruegel Policy Contribution ISSUE 2016/07 MARCH 2016

Pro-cyclical fiscal tightening might be one reason for the anaemic economic recovery in Europe, raising questions about the effectiveness of the EU’s fiscal framework in achieving its two main objectives: public debt sustainability and fiscal stabilisation. • In theory, the current EU fiscal rules, with cyclically adjusted targets, flexibility clauses and the option to enter an excessive deficit procedure, allow for large-scale fiscal stabilisation during a recession. However, implementation of the rules is hindered by the badly-measured structural balance indicator and incorrect forecasts, leading to erroneous policy recommendations. The large number of flexibility clauses makes the system opaque. • The current inefficient European fiscal framework should be replaced with a system based on rules that are more conducive to the two objectives, more transparent, easier to implement and which have a higher potential to be complied with. • The best option, re-designing the fiscal framework from scratch, is currently unrealistic. Therefore we propose to eliminate the structural balance rules and to introduce a new public expenditure rule with debt-correction feedback, embodied in a multi-annual framework, which would also support the central bank’s inflation target. A European Fiscal Council could oversee the system.

Automatic Fiscal Stabiliser: Make it happen! EPC Discussion Paper, 2 May 2016

The eurozone crisis triggered a whole new series of innovations in EU economic governance in order to make the Union more resilient for the next economic downswing. But one of the more persistent issues are the socio-economic divergences between member states, identified by the Five Presidents’ Report as a major problem in the functioning of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Debates took place in recent years about automatic stabilisers, and more specifically about the possibility of introducing an unemployment insurance within the EMU. While the need for some form of fiscal risk-sharing has become a dominant view in expert circles, there has been much less progress among the main political parties and stakeholders. In this study, Regula Hess and László Andor analyse the political feasibility of the adoption of an automatic fiscal stabiliser (AFS) for the eurozone by evaluating actors’ positions towards three distinctive proposals: 1) cyclical shock insurance, 2) reinsurance, 3) a European basic unemployment insurance; they included an empirical case study of France and Germany as the most relevant players within the intergovernmental bargaining constellation. Although the authors realise the current political context makes the adoption of an AFS improbable, Hess and Andor encourage stakeholders to further pursue the discussion, as windows of opportunities can open at any time, and even give some suggestions on what the parameters of the most feasible proposal might be.

Escenarios productivos diversos en Mendoza : En la búsqueda de una fruticultura comercial (1900-1930)

La conformación de una economía regional diversificada en Mendoza encuentra antecedentes en las primeras décadas del siglo XX. En efecto, los sectores dirigentes, empresarios y técnicos buscaron alternativas con vistas a matizar los efectos de crisis cíclicas que afectaban a la vitivinicultura. De modo que este período tiene un marcado carácter transicional, en el que se verifica una complejización del panorama agroproductivo como resultado de la conjunción de diversos factores que son detectados y analizados en este trabajo

Lithology, mineralogy and geochemistry of ODP Hole 118-735B and 176-735B respectively

Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 735B, located on Atlantis Bank on the Southwest Indian Ridge, penetrated 1508 meters below seafloor with an average recovery of 87%, providing a nearly continuous sample of a significant part of oceanic Layer 3. Based on variations in texture and mineralogy, 12 major lithologic units are recognized in the section, ranging from 39.5 to 354 m thick. The principal lithologies include troctolite, troctolitic gabbro, olivine gabbro and microgabbro, gabbro, gabbronorite and Fe-Ti oxide gabbro, gabbronorite, and microgabbro. Highly deformed mylonites, cataclasites, and amphibole gneisses are locally present, as are small quantities of pyroxenite, anorthositic gabbro, and trondhjemite. Downhole variations in mineral composition, particularly for olivine and clinopyroxene, show a number of cyclic variations. Plagioclase compositions show the widest variations and correspond to different degrees of deformation and alteration as well as primary processes. Downhole chemical variations correspond reasonably well with variations in mineral compositions. Iron and titanium mainly reflect the presence of Fe-Ti oxide gabbros but show some cyclical variations in the lower part of the core where oxide gabbros are sparse. CaO is highly variable but shows a small but consistent increase downhole. MgO is more uniform than CaO and shows a very small downward increase. Sulfur and CO2 contents are generally low, but S shows significant enrichment in lithologic Unit IV, which consists of Fe-Ti oxide gabbro, reflecting the presence of sulfide minerals in the sequence. The lithologic, mineralogical, and geochemical data provided here will allow detailed comparisons with ophiolite sections as well as sections of in situ ocean crust drilled in the future.

Table 1. Radiocarbon dates from TPC522 and box core surface samples from BC521 and BC523

Recent intensification of wind-driven upwelling of warm upper circumpolar deep water (UCDW) has been linked to accelerated melting of West Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers. To better assess the long term relationship between UCDWupwelling and the stability of theWest Antarctic Ice Sheet, we present a multi-proxy reconstruction of surface and bottom water conditions in Marguerite Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), through the Holocene. A combination of sedimentological, diatom and foraminiferal records are, for the first time, presented together to infer a decline in UCDW influence within Marguerite Bay through the early to mid Holocene and the dominance of cyclic forcing in the late Holocene. Extensive glacial melt, limited sea ice and enhanced primary productivity between 9.7 and 7.0 ka BP is considered to be most consistent with persistent incursions of UCDW through Marguerite Trough. From 7.0 ka BP sea ice seasons increased and productivity decreased, suggesting that UCDW influence within Marguerite Bay waned, coincident with the equatorward migration of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW). UCDW influence continued through the mid Holocene, and by 4.2 ka BP lengthy sea ice seasons persisted within Marguerite Bay. Intermittent melting and reforming of this sea ice within the late Holocene may be indicative of episodic incursions of UCDW into Marguerite Bay during this period. The cyclical changes in the oceanography within Marguerite Bay during the late Holocene is consistent with enhanced sensitively to ENSO forcing as opposed to the SWW-forcing that appears to have dominated the early to mid Holocene. Current measurements of the oceanography of the WAP continental shelf suggest that the system has now returned to the early Holocene-like oceanographic configuration reported here, which in both cases has been associated with rapid deglaciation.

CEPAL Review no. 118

Special issue: 40 years of CEPAL Review

Escenarios productivos diversos en Mendoza : En la búsqueda de una fruticultura comercial (1900-1930)

La conformación de una economía regional diversificada en Mendoza encuentra antecedentes en las primeras décadas del siglo XX. En efecto, los sectores dirigentes, empresarios y técnicos buscaron alternativas con vistas a matizar los efectos de crisis cíclicas que afectaban a la vitivinicultura. De modo que este período tiene un marcado carácter transicional, en el que se verifica una complejización del panorama agroproductivo como resultado de la conjunción de diversos factores que son detectados y analizados en este trabajo

Futures dreaming outside and on the margins of the western world

In this article, we challenge the hegemony of western science fiction, arguing that western science fiction is particular even as it claims universality. Its view remains based on ideas of the future as forward time. In contrast, in non-western science fiction the future is seen outside linear terms: as cyclical or spiral, or in terms of ancestors. In addition, western science fiction has focused on the good society as created by technological progress, while non-western science fiction and futures thinking has focused on the fantastic, on the spiritual, on the realization of eupsychia-the perfect self. However, most theorists assert that the non-west has no science fiction, ignoring Asian and Chinese science fiction history, and western science fiction continues to 'other' the non-west as well as those on the margins of the west (African-American woman, for example). Nonetheless, while most western science fiction remains trapped in binary opposites-alien/non-alien; masculine/feminine; insider/outsider-writers from the west's margins are creating texts that contradict tradition and modernity, seeking new ways to transcend difference. Given that the imagination of the future creates the reality of tomorrow, creating new science fictions is not just an issue of textual critique but of opening up possibilities for all our futures.

Artificial pumping errors in the Kool-Parker scaling model of soil moisture hysteresis

Hysteresis models that eliminate the artificial pumping errors associated with the Kool-Parker (KP) soil moisture hysteresis model, such as the Parker-Lenhard (PL) method, can be computationally demanding in unsaturated transport models since they need to retain the wetting-drying history of the system. The pumping errors in these models need to be eliminated for correct simulation of cyclical systems (e.g. transport above a tidally forced watertable, infiltration and redistribution under periodic irrigation) if the soils exhibit significant hysteresis. A modification is made here to the PL method that allows it to be more readily applied to numerical models by eliminating the need to store a large number of soil moisture reversal points. The modified-PL method largely eliminates any artificial pumping error and so essentially retains the accuracy of the original PL approach. The modified-PL method is implemented in HYDRUS-1D (version 2.0), which is then used to simulate cyclic capillary fringe dynamics to show the influence of removing artificial pumping errors and to demonstrate the ease of implementation. Artificial pumping errors are shown to be significant for the soils and system characteristics used here in numerical experiments of transport above a fluctuating watertable. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generative acts: Family and community involvement of older Australians

The article adopts a developmental approach to successful human aging by exploring the concept of generativity in relation to a study of older Australians' lived experiences of involvement in the family and community. Qualitative data, collected through focus group interviews, were analyzed interpretively using recent developments in Erikson's theory of generativity as a framework. As a result, the present study contributes an in-depth understanding of the role of generative acts to the lives of older people. The data provide illustrative support for Erikson's contention of a generativity/stagnation crisis in later life. Involvement in the family and community is seen as a productive and generative activity, which promotes a positive experience of aging. Two further emergent themes are also explored. First, the experiences of study participants illustrate the reciprocal and cyclical nature of grand-generativity, and the importance of intergenerational relationships. Finally, the data contribute to our knowledge of cultural generativity, and in particular the passing on of cultural knowledge through narratives and modeling.

Spring Phenology of Butterflies : The role of seasonal variation in life-cycle regulation

Animals and plants in temperate regions must adapt their life cycle to pronounced seasonal variation. The research effort that has gone into studying these cyclical life history events, or phenological traits, has increased greatly in recent decades. As phenological traits are often correlated to temperature, they are relevant to study in terms of understanding the effect of short term environmental variation as well as long term climate change. Because of this, changes in phenology are the most obvious and among the most commonly reported responses to climate change. Moreover, phenological traits are important for fitness as they determine the biotic and abiotic environment an individual encounters. Fine-tuning of phenology allows for synchronisation at a local scale to mates, food resources and appropriate weather conditions. On a between-population scale, variation in phenology may reflect regional variation in climate. Such differences can not only give insights to life cycle adaptation, but also to how populations may respond to environmental change through time. This applies both on an ecological scale through phenotypic plasticity as well as an evolutionary scale through genetic adaptation. In this thesis I have used statistical and experimental methods to investigate both the larger geographical patterns as well as mechanisms of fine-tuning of phenology of several butterfly species. The main focus, however, is on the orange tip butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines, in Sweden and the United Kingdom. I show a contrasting effect of spring temperature and winter condition on spring phenology for three out of the five studied butterfly species. For A. cardamines there are population differences in traits responding to these environmental factors between and within Sweden and the UK that suggest adaptation to local environmental conditions. All populations show a strong negative plastic relationship between spring temperature and spring phenology, while the opposite is true for winter cold duration. Spring phenology is shifted earlier with increasing cold duration. The environmental variables show correlations, for example, during a warm year a short winter delays phenology while a warm spring speeds phenology up. Correlations between the environmental variables also occur through space, as the locations that have long winters also have cold springs. The combined effects of these two environmental variables cause a complex geographical pattern of phenology across the UK and Sweden. When predicting phenology with future climate change or interpreting larger geographical patterns one must therefore have a good enough understanding of how the phenology is controlled and take the relevant environmental factors in to account. In terms of the effect of phenological change, it should be discussed with regards to change in life cycle timing among interacting species. For example, the phenology of the host plants is important for A. cardamines fitness, and it is also the main determining factor for oviposition. In summary, this thesis shows that the broad geographical pattern of phenology of the butterflies is formed by counteracting environmental variables, but that there also are significant population differences that enable fine-tuning of phenology according to the seasonal progression and variation at the local scale.

A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area

We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Canonical solution groups of a homomorphism : manipulator kinematics, nonparametric regression and distributed object systems

The kinematic mapping of a rigid open-link manipulator is a homomorphism between Lie groups. The homomorphisrn has solution groups that act on an inverse kinematic solution element. A canonical representation of solution group operators that act on a solution element of three and seven degree-of-freedom (do!) dextrous manipulators is determined by geometric analysis. Seven canonical solution groups are determined for the seven do! Robotics Research K-1207 and Hollerbach arms. The solution element of a dextrous manipulator is a collection of trivial fibre bundles with solution fibres homotopic to the Torus. If fibre solutions are parameterised by a scalar, a direct inverse funct.ion that maps the scalar and Cartesian base space coordinates to solution element fibre coordinates may be defined. A direct inverse pararneterisation of a solution element may be approximated by a local linear map generated by an inverse augmented Jacobian correction of a linear interpolation. The action of canonical solution group operators on a local linear approximation of the solution element of inverse kinematics of dextrous manipulators generates cyclical solutions. The solution representation is proposed as a model of inverse kinematic transformations in primate nervous systems. Simultaneous calibration of a composition of stereo-camera and manipulator kinematic models is under-determined by equi-output parameter groups in the composition of stereo-camera and Denavit Hartenberg (DH) rnodels. An error measure for simultaneous calibration of a composition of models is derived and parameter subsets with no equi-output groups are determined by numerical experiments to simultaneously calibrate the composition of homogeneous or pan-tilt stereo-camera with DH models. For acceleration of exact Newton second-order re-calibration of DH parameters after a sequential calibration of stereo-camera and DH parameters, an optimal numerical evaluation of DH matrix first order and second order error derivatives with respect to a re-calibration error function is derived, implemented and tested. A distributed object environment for point and click image-based tele-command of manipulators and stereo-cameras is specified and implemented that supports rapid prototyping of numerical experiments in distributed system control. The environment is validated by a hierarchical k-fold cross validated calibration to Cartesian space of a radial basis function regression correction of an affine stereo model. Basic design and performance requirements are defined for scalable virtual micro-kernels that broker inter-Java-virtual-machine remote method invocations between components of secure manageable fault-tolerant open distributed agile Total Quality Managed ISO 9000+ conformant Just in Time manufacturing systems.

The mechanisms of melt stabilisation of polyolefins

The effects of melt stabilisers on the oxidative degradation of polyolefins (polypropylene, low density polyethylene) have been studied under a variety of processing conditions . The changes in the both chemical and physical properties of unstabilised polymers occurring during processing were found to be strongly dependent on the amount of oxygen present in the mixer. 2 ,6 ,3' ,5' -tetra-tert-butyl-4'-phenoxy-4-methylene-2, 5-cyclohexadiene-1- one (galvinoxyl), iodine, nitroxyl radicals and cupric stearate were found to be very efficient melt stabilisers particularly when processed in a restricted amount of air. The mechanisms of their melt stabilising action have been investigated and a common cyclical regenerative mechanism involving both chain-breaking electron acceptor (CB-A) and chain-breaking electron donor (CB-D) antioxidant activity was found to be involved in each case. 2,6,3',5'-tetra-tert-butyl-4'-hydroxy phenyl-4-rrethylene-2,5-cyclohexadiene- 1-one (hydrogalvinoxy1), 4-hydroxy, 2,2,6, 6-tetra methyl-N-hydroxy piperidine and hydrogen iodide were formed together with olefinic unsaturation in the substrates during the melt processing of the polymers containing galvinoxyl, 4-hydroxy, 2,2,6, 6-tetra methyl piperidine oxyl and iodine respectively. No bonding of the melt stabilisers to the polymers was found to occur. Cupric stearate was found to undergo a similar redox reaction during its action as a melt stabiliser with the formation of unsaturation in the polymer. Evidence for the above processes is presented. The behaviours of melt stabilisers in the subsequent thermal and photooxidation of polyolefins have also been studied. Galvinoxyl which is very effective under both mild and severe processing canditions has been found to be an effective antioxidant during thermal oxidation (oven ageing) and it is also moderately good. as a photo-stabiliser. Iodine and cupric stearate acted efficiently during melt stabilisation of polymers, however they were both ineffective as thermo-oxidative antioxidants and UV stabilisers. Although the melt stabilisation effectiveness of stable nitroxyl radicals (e.g. 4-hydroxy, 2,2,6,6-tetra methyl piperidineoxyl and Bis- (2,2,6 ,6-tetra methyl-4- piperidinyl-N-oxyl) sebacate) is not as high as that of galvinoxyl during processing particularly in excess of air, they have been found to be much more efficient as UV stabilisers for polyolefins. The reasons for this are discussed.

The environmental impacts of technical change

The thesis is concerned with relationships between profit, technology and environmental change. Existing work has concentrated on only a few questions, treated at either micro or macro levels of analysis. And there has been something of an impasse since the neoclassical and neomarxist approaches are either in direct conflict (macro level), or hardly interact (micro level). The aim of the thesis was to bypass this impasse by starting to develop a meso level of analysis that focusses on issues largely ignored in the traditional approaches - on questions about distribution. The first questions looked at were descriptive - what were the patterns of distribution over time of the variability in types and rates of environmental change, and in particular, was there any evidence of periodization? Two case studies were used to examine these issues. The first looked at environmental change in the iron and steel industry since 1700, and the second studied pollution in five industries in the basic processing sector. It was established that environmental change has been markedly periodized, with an apparently fairly regular `cycle length' of about fifty years. The second questions considered were explanatory - whether and how this periodization could be accounted for by reference to variations in aspects of profitability and technical change. In the iron and steel industry, it was found that diffusion rates and the rate of nature of innovation were periodized on the same pattern as was environmental change. And the same sort of variation was also present in the realm of profits, as evidenced by cyclical changes in output growth. Simple theoretical accounts could be given for all the empirically demonstrable links, and it was suggested that the most useful models at this meso level of analysis are provided by structural change models of economic development.