Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

The role of fixed delays in neuronal rate models

Fixed delays in neuronal interactions arise through synaptic and dendritic processing. Previous work has shown that such delays, which play an important role in shaping the dynamics of networks of large numbers of spiking neurons with continuous synaptic kinetics, can be taken into account with a rate model through the addition of an explicit, fixed delay. Here we extend this work to account for arbitrary symmetric patterns of synaptic connectivity and generic nonlinear transfer functions. Specifically, we conduct a weakly nonlinear analysis of the dynamical states arising via primary instabilities of the stationary uniform state. In this way we determine analytically how the nature and stability of these states depend on the choice of transfer function and connectivity. While this dependence is, in general, nontrivial, we make use of the smallness of the ratio in the delay in neuronal interactions to the effective time constant of integration to arrive at two general observations of physiological relevance. These are: 1 - fast oscillations are always supercritical for realistic transfer functions. 2 - Traveling waves are preferred over standing waves given plausible patterns of local connectivity.

Reduction of small infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion rate by statins.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the effect of statins on the annual expansion rate (ER) of small infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients under regular surveillance for small AAA between January 2000 and September 2007, in the Department of Angiology, Lausanne University Hospital, were included. Inclusion criteria were baseline abdominal aortic diameter between 25 and 55 mm, at least two measurements of AAA diameter and a minimum follow up of 6 months. Patients with Marfan disease, infectious or inflammatory AAA, and patients with prior AAA repair were excluded. The influence of statin use and other factors on ER were examined by bivariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Among 589 patients who underwent an abdominal aorta evaluation, 94 patients (89 % men, mean age 69.1 years) were finally included in the analysis. Baseline AAA size was 39.9 ± 7.7 mm (mean±SE) and 48.7 ± 8.4 mm at end of follow-up. Patients had a regular aneurysm size assessment during 38.5 ± 27.7 months. Mean ER was 3.59 mm/y (± 2.81). The 50 patients who were treated with statin during the study period had a lower ER compared to the 44 controls (2.91 vs 4.37 mm/year, p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the considerable individual variations in the AAA expansion rate, and emphasizes the need for regular aortic diameter assessments. In this study, patients treated with statin demonstrate a significant decrease in the ER compared to controls. This finding need to be evaluated in prospective interventional studies powered to demonstrate the potential benefit of statin treatment.

Stochastic demography and the neutral substitution rate in class-structured populations.

The neutral rate of allelic substitution is analyzed for a class-structured population subject to a stationary stochastic demographic process. The substitution rate is shown to be generally equal to the effective mutation rate, and under overlapping generations it can be expressed as the effective mutation rate in newborns when measured in units of average generation time. With uniform mutation rate across classes the substitution rate reduces to the mutation rate.

Pregnancy-related changes in activity energy expenditure and resting metabolic rate in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To measure resting metabolic rate (RMR), activity energy expenditure (AEE), total energy expenditure (TEE) and physical activity pattern, that is, duration and intensity (in metabolic equivalents, METs) of activities performed in late pregnancy compared with postpartum in healthy, well-nourished women living in Switzerland. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Weight, height, RMR, AEE, TEE and physical activity patterns were measured longitudinally in 27 healthy women aged 23-40 years at 38.2+/-1.5 weeks of gestation and 40.0+/-7.2 weeks postpartum. RESULTS: The RMR during late pregnancy was 7480 kJ per day, that is, 1320+/-760 kJ per day (21.4%) higher than the postpartum RMR (P<0.001). Absolute changes in RMR were positively correlated with the corresponding changes in body weight (r=0.61, P<0.001). RMR per kg body weight was similar in late pregnancy vs postpartum (P=0.28). AEE per kg during pregnancy and postpartum was 40+/-13 and 50+/-20 kJ/kg, respectively (P=0.001). There were significant differences in daily time spent at METs<1.5 (1067 vs 998 min, P=0.045), at 2.5< or =METs <3.0 (58 vs 82 min, P=0.002) and METs> or =6 (1 vs 6 min, P=0.014) during pregnancy and postpartum, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Energy expenditure in healthy women living in Switzerland increases in pregnancy compared with the postpartum state. Additional energy expenditure is primarily attributed to an increase in RMR, which is partly compensated by a decrease in AEE. The decrease in physical activity-related energy costs is achieved by selecting less demanding activities and should be taken into account when defining extra energy requirements for late pregnancy in Switzerland.

The effect of subminimal inhibitory concentrations of penicillin on growth rate and haemolysin activity of group G Streptococcus

The influence of the subminimal inhibitory concentrations (1/3 and 1/4 of the MIC) of penicillin on growth rate and on haemolysin production of a strain of group G Streptococcus was studied. It was shown that 1/3 of the MIC almost completely inhibited the bacterial growth, but it was not able to inhibit haemolysin activity in the culture supernate. The generation time of bacteria grown in 1/4 of the MIC was approximately twice longer than that of the control culture. In all cultures, the haemolysin, after being produced (or liberated), reached a peak and decreased to low levels, which could suggest that group G Streptococcus produces some end products of metabolism that are able to inhibit haemolysin activity.

A peripheral dose calculation model for estimating second cancer risk after breast radiotherapy

AbstractBreast cancer is one of the most common cancers affecting one in eight women during their lives. Survival rates have increased steadily thanks to early diagnosis with mammography screening and more efficient treatment strategies. Post-operative radiation therapy is a standard of care in the management of breast cancer and has been shown to reduce efficiently both local recurrence rate and breast cancer mortality. Radiation therapy is however associated with some late effects for long-term survivors. Radiation-induced secondary cancer is a relatively rare but severe late effect of radiation therapy. Currently, radiotherapy plans are essentially optimized to maximize tumor control and minimize late deterministic effects (tissue reactions) that are mainly associated with high doses (» 1 Gy). With improved cure rates and new radiation therapy technologies, it is also important to evaluate and minimize secondary cancer risks for different treatment techniques. This is a particularly challenging task due to the large uncertainties in the dose-response relationship.In contrast with late deterministic effects, secondary cancers may be associated with much lower doses and therefore out-of-field doses (also called peripheral doses) that are typically inferior to 1 Gy need to be determined accurately. Out-of-field doses result from patient scatter and head scatter from the treatment unit. These doses are particularly challenging to compute and we characterized it by Monte Carlo (MC) calculation. A detailed MC model of the Siemens Primus linear accelerator has been thoroughly validated with measurements. We investigated the accuracy of such a model for retrospective dosimetry in epidemiological studies on secondary cancers. Considering that patients in such large studies could be treated on a variety of machines, we assessed the uncertainty in reconstructed peripheral dose due to the variability of peripheral dose among various linac geometries. For large open fields (> 10x10 cm2), the uncertainty would be less than 50%, but for small fields and wedged fields the uncertainty in reconstructed dose could rise up to a factor of 10. It was concluded that such a model could be used for conventional treatments using large open fields only.The MC model of the Siemens Primus linac was then used to compare out-of-field doses for different treatment techniques in a female whole-body CT-based phantom. Current techniques such as conformai wedged-based radiotherapy and hybrid IMRT were investigated and compared to older two-dimensional radiotherapy techniques. MC doses were also compared to those of a commercial Treatment Planning System (TPS). While the TPS is routinely used to determine the dose to the contralateral breast and the ipsilateral lung which are mostly out of the treatment fields, we have shown that these doses may be highly inaccurate depending on the treatment technique investigated. MC shows that hybrid IMRT is dosimetrically similar to three-dimensional wedge-based radiotherapy within the field, but offers substantially reduced doses to out-of-field healthy organs.Finally, many different approaches to risk estimations extracted from the literature were applied to the calculated MC dose distribution. Absolute risks varied substantially as did the ratio of risk between two treatment techniques, reflecting the large uncertainties involved with current risk models. Despite all these uncertainties, the hybrid IMRT investigated resulted in systematically lower cancer risks than any of the other treatment techniques. More epidemiological studies with accurate dosimetry are required in the future to construct robust risk models. In the meantime, any treatment strategy that reduces out-of-field doses to healthy organs should be investigated. Electron radiotherapy might offer interesting possibilities with this regard.RésuméLe cancer du sein affecte une femme sur huit au cours de sa vie. Grâce au dépistage précoce et à des thérapies de plus en plus efficaces, le taux de guérison a augmenté au cours du temps. La radiothérapie postopératoire joue un rôle important dans le traitement du cancer du sein en réduisant le taux de récidive et la mortalité. Malheureusement, la radiothérapie peut aussi induire des toxicités tardives chez les patients guéris. En particulier, les cancers secondaires radio-induits sont une complication rare mais sévère de la radiothérapie. En routine clinique, les plans de radiothérapie sont essentiellement optimisées pour un contrôle local le plus élevé possible tout en minimisant les réactions tissulaires tardives qui sont essentiellement associées avec des hautes doses (» 1 Gy). Toutefois, avec l'introduction de différentes nouvelles techniques et avec l'augmentation des taux de survie, il devient impératif d'évaluer et de minimiser les risques de cancer secondaire pour différentes techniques de traitement. Une telle évaluation du risque est une tâche ardue étant donné les nombreuses incertitudes liées à la relation dose-risque.Contrairement aux effets tissulaires, les cancers secondaires peuvent aussi être induits par des basses doses dans des organes qui se trouvent hors des champs d'irradiation. Ces organes reçoivent des doses périphériques typiquement inférieures à 1 Gy qui résultent du diffusé du patient et du diffusé de l'accélérateur. Ces doses sont difficiles à calculer précisément, mais les algorithmes Monte Carlo (MC) permettent de les estimer avec une bonne précision. Un modèle MC détaillé de l'accélérateur Primus de Siemens a été élaboré et validé avec des mesures. La précision de ce modèle a également été déterminée pour la reconstruction de dose en épidémiologie. Si on considère que les patients inclus dans de larges cohortes sont traités sur une variété de machines, l'incertitude dans la reconstruction de dose périphérique a été étudiée en fonction de la variabilité de la dose périphérique pour différents types d'accélérateurs. Pour de grands champs (> 10x10 cm ), l'incertitude est inférieure à 50%, mais pour de petits champs et des champs filtrés, l'incertitude de la dose peut monter jusqu'à un facteur 10. En conclusion, un tel modèle ne peut être utilisé que pour les traitements conventionnels utilisant des grands champs.Le modèle MC de l'accélérateur Primus a été utilisé ensuite pour déterminer la dose périphérique pour différentes techniques dans un fantôme corps entier basé sur des coupes CT d'une patiente. Les techniques actuelles utilisant des champs filtrés ou encore l'IMRT hybride ont été étudiées et comparées par rapport aux techniques plus anciennes. Les doses calculées par MC ont été comparées à celles obtenues d'un logiciel de planification commercial (TPS). Alors que le TPS est utilisé en routine pour déterminer la dose au sein contralatéral et au poumon ipsilatéral qui sont principalement hors des faisceaux, nous avons montré que ces doses peuvent être plus ou moins précises selon la technTque étudiée. Les calculs MC montrent que la technique IMRT est dosimétriquement équivalente à celle basée sur des champs filtrés à l'intérieur des champs de traitement, mais offre une réduction importante de la dose aux organes périphériques.Finalement différents modèles de risque ont été étudiés sur la base des distributions de dose calculées par MC. Les risques absolus et le rapport des risques entre deux techniques de traitement varient grandement, ce qui reflète les grandes incertitudes liées aux différents modèles de risque. Malgré ces incertitudes, on a pu montrer que la technique IMRT offrait une réduction du risque systématique par rapport aux autres techniques. En attendant des données épidémiologiques supplémentaires sur la relation dose-risque, toute technique offrant une réduction des doses périphériques aux organes sains mérite d'être étudiée. La radiothérapie avec des électrons offre à ce titre des possibilités intéressantes.

Parental heart rate variability during pediatric consultation

OBJECTIVE: Research regarding communication between pediatricians and parents in pediatric consultation has mainly focused on parental satisfaction, on its influence on compliance and on communication techniques used by pediatricians. However, there is paucity in research regarding parental stress levels during pediatric consultation. Therefore, the aim of our study was to measure parental heart rate variability related as a measure of stress levels during pediatric consultation. METHODS: Video recordings with simultaneous monitoring and recording of parental heart rate were obtained from 38 pediatric consultations in the ambulatory or hospital setting of the department of pediatrics (HFR, Fribourg, Switzerland). Pulse variation was measured every 5 seconds and heart rate variability (increase or decrease were analyzed) in relation to various sections of the consultation. RESULTS: Heart rate significantly decreased at the end of the consultation compared to the beginning of the consultation (p= 0.0567). In addition, heart rate significantly decreased at the beginning of clinical examination (p= 0.0476) compared to psychosocial history taking. During the discussion of laboratory findings and diagnosis, heart rate was significantly elevated compared to the discussion of the prognosis (p=0.0505). CONCLUSION: We conclude that pediatric consultation has a significant impact on parental stress levels shown by parental heart variability. In general, it can be shown that stress levels significantly decrease at the end of the consultation compared to the beginning of the consultation. In addition, stress levels decrease at the beginning of clinical examination and increase during psychosocial history taking and discussion of laboratory findings and diagnosis. Therefore, our findings highlight the importance of a thorough consultation which include a comprehensive clinical examination with special care taken regarding psychosocial issues and information given regarding the diagnosis.

Change in individual growth rate and its link to gill-net fishing in two sympatric whitefish species

Size-selective fishing is expected to affect traits such as individual growth rate, but the relationship between the fishery-linked selection differentials and the corresponding phenotypic changes is not well understood. We analysed a 25-year monitoring survey of sympatric populations of the two Alpine whitefish Coregonus albellus and C. fatioi. We determined the fishing-induced selection differentials on growth rates, the actual change of growth rates over time, and potential indicators of reproductive strategies that may change over time. We found marked declines in adult growth rate and significant selection differentials that may partly explain the observed declines. However, when comparing the two sympatric species, the selection differentials on adult growth were stronger in C. albellus while the decline in adult growth rate seemed more pronounced in C. fatioi. Moreover, the selection differential on juvenile growth was significant in C. albellus but not in C. fatioi, while a significant reduction in juvenile growth over the last 25 years was only found in C. fatioi. Our results suggest that size-selective fishing affects the genetics for individual growth in these whitefish, and that the link between selection differentials and phenotypic changes is influenced by species-specific factors.

Confounding effects of heart rate on pulse wave velocity in paced patients with a low degree of atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Pulse wave velocity (PWV), an index of arterial wall stiffness, is modulated by blood pressure (BP). Whether heart rate (HR) is also a modulator of PWV is controversial. Recent research involving mainly patients with high aortic PWV have found either no change or a positive correlation between the two. Given that PWV is increasingly being measured in cardiovascular studies, the relationship between HR and PWV should be known in patients with preserved arterial wall elasticity. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the importance of HR as a determinant of the variability in PWV in patients with a low degree of atherosclerosis. DESIGN AND METHODS: Fourteen patients (five female, nine male; aged 68 +/- 8 years) were evaluated post pacemaker implantation due to sick sinus or carotid hypersensitivity syndromes. Carotid-femoral PWV was measured at rest and during atrial pacing at 80, 90 and 100 bpm (paced HR). Arterial femoral blood flow (AFBF) was measured by echodoppler. RESULTS: PWV increased from 6.2 +/- 1.5 m/s (mean +/- SD) during resting sinus rhythm (HR 62 +/- 8 bpm; mean +/- SD) to 6.8 +/- 1.0, 7.0 +/- 0.9, and 7.6 +/- 1.1 m/s at pacing rates of 80, 90 and 100 bpm, respectively (P < 0.0001). Systolic (SBP) and mean blood pressure (MBP) remained constant at all HR levels, whereas AFBF increased in a linear fashion. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that even in patients with a low degree of atherosclerosis, HR is a potential modulator of carotid-femoral PWV.

The difference between the basal metabolic rate and the sleeping metabolic rate in Japanese.

Previous studies have demonstrated the difference between the basal metabolic rate (BMR) and the sleeping metabolic rate (SMR): however, the difference in the Japanese population has not yet been explored. This study examined the relationship between the BMR and SMR in ninety-four healthy Japanese subjects (37 males and 57 females, 39 +/- 12 y of age and 22.0 +/- 7.4% body fat) in a respiratory chamber. The SMR was significantly lower than the BMR (1416 +/- 245 vs. 1492 +/- 256 kcal/d): however, there was a highly significant correlation between the two (r = 0.867; p < 0.001). The ratio of SMR/BMR largely varied among individuals (0.95 +/-0.08, 8.4% of the coefficient of variation). The ratio was significantly lower in males than in females (0.93 +/- 0.10 vs. 0.97 +/- 0.06, p < 0.05). None of the anthropometric measures (age, weight, body mass index, body surface area or percent body fat) correlated with the ratio. These results showed that SMR was 95%, of BMR on average in a healthy Japanese group. However, when applied over a longer time period (24 h or more), the difference tends to become negligible for most analyses in a group. Although the difference between SMR and BMR will induce a 5% gap of physical activity level defined as the total energy expenditure divided by the BMR or SMR, this factor seems to have little practical importance in epidemiological research.