On-line tool condition monitoring and control system in forging processes

Cold bulk metal forming has made large-scale production of small complex solid parts economically feasible. Tooling used in metal forming poses many uncertainties in the preliminary cost estimation and production process and continual tool replacement and maintenance dramatically reduces productivity and raises manufacturing cost. In order to tackle this, an on-line tool condition monitoring system using artificial neural network (ANN) to integrate information from multiple sensors for forging process has been developed. Together with the force, acoustic emission signals and process conditions, information developed from theoretical models is integrated into the ANN tool monitoring system to predict tool life and provide the maintenance schedule.

Auditing construction costs during building design : a case study of cost planning in action

Building cost planning was originally developed in the framework of traditional procurement methods with conventional documentation, tendering and administration processes. With the advent of alternative forms of procurement with more fluid approaches to design stages and documentation, the need for sound cost planning does not appear to diminish. As a process established on solid theoretical foundations, cost planning should be robust enough to adapt and flourish in a variety of procurement environments. However, little documentation and analysis of transformed and adapted forms of cost planning appear to have been made. This case study of a design-construct company in Melbourne, Australia, presents and explores a contemporary form of building cost planning integrated into a design cost management approach adopted by a construction company experienced in alternative forms of procurement. The article traces this process on a design-construct project from inception to the end of the design development stage and tender. Whilst the fundamental framework of cost planning remains intact, the focus and detail in each of the stages are guided by the company's priority for greater financial control over the cost and value implications of design and other decisions. This recently established working model of design cost management in this company has been designed to deliver added value to the client through a better balance of time, cost and quality in each project.

The potential for tobacco control to reduce PBS costs for smoking-related cardiovaccular disease

Objective: To estimate Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) subsidies for drugs to treat smoking-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) in 2001-02, and over the period of the government's Intergenerational Report (IGR), assuming current smoking prevalence rates and a 5% absolute reduction.

Design and setting: An Australian epidemiological study, using prescribing data, aetiological fraction methodology, and IGR trends.

Main outcome measures: Estimated smoking-related PBS subsidy costs in 2001-02 and predicted cumulative subsidies until 2041-42, under current and reduced smoking prevalence assumptions.

Results: The PBS costs of smoking-related CVD in 2001-02 were $126 million, 9.77% of the cost of drugs for CVD and 2.96% of total PBS subsidies. The cumulative difference in these costs over the 40-year period with a 5% drop in smoking prevalence was predicted to be $4.5 billion, a 17% reduction. The saving would be $1.14 billion discounting future costs at 5% per year.

Conclusions: Further investment in tobacco control interventions could curb the increasing cost of the PBS and contribute to government efforts to ensure the viability of Australia's healthcare-financing programs. The net present value of a campaign to reduce smoking prevalence was estimated at $1 billion, with an internal rate of return of 33%.

Cost-effectiveness of a family-based GP-mediated intervention targeting overweight and moderately obese children

Objective
 To assess from a societal perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of a family-based GP-mediated intervention targeting overweight and moderately obese children. The intervention was modelled on the LEAP (live, eat and play) trial, a randomised controlled trial conducted by the Centre for Community Child Health, Melbourne, Australia in 2002–2003. This study was undertaken as part of the assessing cost-effectiveness (ACE) in obesity project which evaluated, using consistent methods, 13 interventions targeting unhealthy weight gain in children and adolescents.
Method
A logic pathway was used to model the effects of the intervention compared to no intervention on body mass index (BMI) and health outcomes (disability-adjusted life years—DALYs). Disease costs and health benefits were tracked until the cohort of eligible children reached the age of 100 years or death. Simulation-modelling techniques were used to present a 95% uncertainty interval around the cost-effectiveness ratio. The intervention was also assessed against a series of filters (‘equity’, ‘strength of evidence’, ‘acceptability’, ‘feasibility’, sustainability’ and ‘side-effects’) to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions.
Results
The intervention, as modelled, reached 9685 children aged 5–9 years with a BMI z-score of ≥3.0, and cost $AUD6.3M (or $AUD4.8M excluding time costs). It resulted in an incremental saving of 2300 BMI units which translated to 511 DALYs. The cost-offsets stemming from the intervention totalled $AUD3.6M, resulting in a net cost per DALY saved of $AUD4670 (dominated; $0.1M) (dominated means intervention costs more for less effect).
Conclusion
Compared to a ‘no intervention’ control group, the intervention was cost-effective under current assumptions, although the uncertainty intervals were wide. A key question related to the long-term sustainability of the small incremental weight loss reported, based on the 9-month follow-up results for LEAP.

The role of trust in joint venture control : a theoretical framework

This paper develops a theoretical framework and a number of propositions for systematically studying the role of trust in the control and performance of Joint Ventures, a prominent form of inter-firm alliance. The proposed framework is more complete than the frameworks available in the extant literature because it incorporates both transaction related risks and the partner related risks which are likely to impact on the reliance on particular control patterns. Partner-related risks in joint ventures are represented by the level of inter-partner trust, while transaction-related risks are represented by the Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) variables of asset specificity, task complexity, performance measurability, and environmental uncertainty.

The framework also links one of the established management control typologies (i.e., behaviour, outcome, and social) to two of the alliance control patterns (bureaucratic-based pattern, and trust-based pattern) identified in the literature on alliance control.

Design and analysis of hull configurations for a low-cost, autonomous underwater robot as an enabling technology for system of system applications

The objective of this research is to model and analyze candidate hull configurations for a low-cost, modular, autonomous underwater robot. As the computational power and speed of microprocessors continue to progress, we are seeing a growth in the research, development, and the utilization of underwater robots. The number of applications is broadening in the R&D and science communities, especially in the area of multiple, collaborative robots. These underwater collaborative robots represent an instantiation of a System of Systems (SoS). While each new researcher explores a unique application, control method, etc. a new underwater robot vehicle is designed, developed, and deployed. This sometimes leads to one-off designs that are costly. One limit to the wide-scale utilization of underwater robotics is the cost of development. Another limit is the ability to modify the configuration for new applications and evolving requirements. Consequently, we are exploring autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) hull designs towards the goal of modularity, vehicle dexterity, and minimizing the cost. In our analysis, we have employed 3D solid modeling tools and finite element methods. In this paper we present our initial results and discuss ongoing work.

Control and simulation of robotic swarms in heterogeneous environments

Simulation provides a low cost method of initial testing of control for robotic swarms. The expansion of robotic swarms to heterogeneous environments drives the need to model cooperative operation in those environments. The Autonomous Control Engineering center at The University of Texas at San Antonio is investigating methods of simulation techniques and simulation environments. This paper presents results from adapting simulation tools for diverse environments.

A low-cost intelligent gas sensing device for military applications

The field of electronic noses and gas sensing has been developing rapidly since the introduction of the silicon based sensors. There are numerous systems that can detect and indicate the level of a specific gas. We introduce here a system that is low power, small and cheap enough to be used in mobile robotic platforms while still being accurate and reliable enough for confident use. The design is based around a small circuit board mounted in a plastic case with holes to allow the sensors to protrude through the top and allow the natural flow of gas evenly across them. The main control board consists of a microcontroller PCB with surface mount components for low cost and power consumption. The firmware of the device is based on an algorithm that uses an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) which receives input from an array of gas sensors. The various sensors feeding the ANN allow the microcontroller to determine the gas type and quantity. The Testing of the device involves the training of the ANN with a number of different target gases to determine the weightings for the ANN. Accuracy and reliability of the ANN is validated through testing in a specific gas filled environment.

Is early intervention in psychosis cost-effective over the long term?

Objective: This study assesses the long-term cost-effectiveness of a comprehensive model of mental health care for first-episode psychosis. The study is an extension of a previous economic evaluation of the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre (EPPIC) that assessed the first-year costs and outcomes of treatment.

Method: The current study used a matched, historical control group design with a follow-up of approximately 8 years. Complete follow-up data were available for 65 of the original 102 participants. Direct public mental health service costs incurred subsequent to the first year of treatment and symptomatic and functional outcomes of 32 participants initially treated for up to 2 years at EPPIC were compared with a matched cohort of 33 participants initially treated by generic mental health services. Treatment-related resource use was measured and valued using Australian published prices.

Results: Almost 8 years after initial treatment, EPPIC subjects displayed lower levels of positive psychotic symptoms (P = .007), were more likely to be in remission (P = .008), and had a more favorable course of illness (P = .011) than the controls. Fifty-six percent of the EPPIC cohort were in paid employment over the last 2 years compared with 33% of controls (P = .083). Each EPPIC patient costs on average A$3445 per annum to treat compared with controls, who each costs A$9503 per annum.

Conclusions: Specialized early psychosis programs can deliver a higher recovery rate at one-third the cost of standard public mental health services. Residual methodological limitations and limited sample size indicate that further research is required to verify this finding.

Towards development of a quality cost model for automotive stamping

The current work used discrete event simulation techniques to model the economics of quality within an actual automotive stamping plant. Automotive stamping is a complex, capital intensive process requiring part-specific tooling and specialised machinery. Quality control and quality improvement is difficult in the stamping environment due to the general lack of process understanding and the large number to interacting variables. These factors have prevented the widespread use of statistical process control. In this work, a model of the quality control techniques used at the Ford Geelong Stamping plant is developed and indirectly validated against results from production. To date, most discrete event models are of systems where the quality control process is clearly defined by the rules of statistical process control. However, the quality control technique used within the stamping plant is for the operator to perform a 100% visual inspection while unloading the finished panels. In the developed model, control is enacted after a cumulative count of defective items is observed, thereby approximating the operator who allows a number of defective panels to accumulate before resetting the line. Analysis of this model found that the cost sensitivity to inspection error is dependent upon the level of control and that the level of control determines line utilisation. Additional analysis of this model demonstrated that additional inspection processes would lead to more stable cost structures but these structures many not necessarily be lower cost. The model was subsequently applied to investigate the economics of quality improvement. The quality problem of panel blemishes, induced by slivers (small metal fragments), was chosen as a case stuffy. Errors of 20-30% were observed during direct validation of the cost model and it was concluded that the use of discrete event simulation models for applications requiring high accuracy would not be possible unless the production system was of low complexity. However, the model could be used to evaluate the sensitivity of input factors and investigating the effects of a number of potential improvement opportunities. Therefore, the research concluded that it is possible to use discrete event simulation to determine the quality economics of an actual stamping plant. However, limitations imposed by inability of the model to consider a number of external factors, such as continuous improvement, operator working conditions or wear and the lack of reliable quality data, result in low cost accuracy. Despite this, it still can be demonstrated that discrete event simulation has significant benefits over the alternate modelling methods.

Intersection of autonomy and social control : negotiating teenage motherhood

Contrary to popular belief, teenage mothers are a declining proportion of birthing women; however they receive much negative public attention. Of particular public concern is the high cost of supporting teenage mothers, in terms of financial, health and welfare resources. Historically, the typical founding mother of white Australia was single, but post-war changes in the family structure incorporated the expectation that children be born into two-parent households with the male as the breadwinner. Policy changes in the seventies saw the introduction of the Sole Parents Pension which meant that many birthing teenage women could choose to keep their infants rather than have a clandestine adoption or an enforced marriage. The parenting practices of teenage mothers have been criticised for being less than optimal, and mother and child are reported as being disadvantaged cognitively, psychosocially, and educationally. One widespread nursing service which provides support for new mothers in Victoria is the Maternal and Child Health Service; however, teenage mothers appear reluctant to use such services. Why this should be so became an important question for this research, since little is known about the parenting practices of teenage mothers. This study therefore sought to explore mothering from the perspective of five sole supporting teenage mothers each of whom had a child over six months of age. The research methodology took an interpretive ethnographic approach and was guided by feminist principles. The data were collected through repeated interviewing, participant observation, informal discussions with key informants, field notes and journalling. Data analysis was aided by the use of the software, program NUD-IST. It was found that the young women in this study each chose to give birth with full realisation that their existence was dependent on the Welfare State. Unanticipated, however, were the many structural barriers which made their lives cataclysmic, but these reinforced their determination to prove themselves worthy and capable mothers. The young women negotiated motherhood through a range of social supports and through maternal practice. Unquestionably, their social dependency on the welfare system forced them into marginal citizen status. Moreover, absolute and intrinsic poverty levels were experienced, brought about by inadequate welfare payments. Formal support agencies, such as the Maternal and Child Health nurses were rarely approached to provide childrearing support beyond the initial months following birthing, since the teenagers' basic needs such as shelter, food and clothing took precedence over their parenting needs. Additionally, some nurses were perceived to hold judgmental attitudes towards teenage mothers. It was far easier to forestall confrontation with nurses and the other 'older' women clientele by avoiding them. Thus XI they turned to charitable agencies who provided a safety net in the form of emergency supplies of money, food, or equipment. Informal networks of friends provided alternative modes of support when family help failed to materialise. The children, however, provided the young women with an opportunity to transform their lives by breaking free of the past, and by creating a new, mature existence for themselves. Despite being abandoned by family, friends, lovers and society, in the privacy and isolation of their own homes, they attempted to provide a more nurturing environment for their children than they themselves had received. Each bestowed unconditional maternal love on the child and were rewarded through the pleasures of watching their children grow and develop into worthwhile individuals. The children became the focus of their attention and their reason for living. In the course of their welfare dependency, the young women became public property, targets of surveillance, and were subjected to stigmatising and condescending public attitudes wherever they went. In this way, it was evident that they were an oppressed group, but each found ways of resisting. Rather than focussing on their oppressive or disabling lives, or dwelling on their disadvantaged status, the young women sought their identities as mature women through motherhood and by demonstrating that they could do this important job well. Through motherhood their lives had meaning and a sense of purpose. The thesis concludes that motherhood in the teenage years is difficult. However, if appropriate supports are made available, teenage mothers need be no different from non-teenage mothers. But with state resources shrinking, and their own resources limited, teenage mothers are disadvantaged. In some ways, this study showed that all levels of support were inadequate, although those provided through the charitable organizations were seen to be the most appropriate. This reflects the current policy of economic rationalism adopted by most Western liberal democracies in the 1980s and 1990s and no less by the former Keating Labor Government in Australia.

A prospective study on building quality : enforcement of control in the Australian housing industry

The Australian housing industry is beset with quality issues with repeated building defects causing problems with customer satisfaction and housing performance. These defects are caused by a combination of initial poor workmanship and poor quality materials and subsequently by poorly executed or inadequate maintenance. These poor work practices increase the cost and maintenance of housing. The waste and rectification work generated by such practices means that the housing industry generally is not engaged with sustainability. Building Control is part of achieving quality of building output. Whilst the Australian Building Code has regulations for initial-build material quality and workmanship, there is no continuing control and effective enforcement over a house over its life span. Sustainability is not dealt with as a topic at all in the Building Code with only energy efficiency concerns regulated. Inadequate knowledge transfer, to the mainly small builders who produce the majority of Australia’s housing, is seen to be a key issue. Mechanisms to make the transfer of knowledge to those who need to use it need to be improved. Building regulations, for example, could be more visual and accessible in their content and small builders should be encouraged to update their knowledge and skills. This comparative research will guide industry service providers in improving their performance and suggest how overall housing quality can be improved (thereby reducing wasteful practices), by considering more appropriate mechanisms for knowledge transfer among industry service providers in the Australian housing industry.

Optimisation of Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis (Vectobac) applications for the blackfly control programme on the Orange River, South Africa

The Orange River, South Africa’s largest river, is a critical water resource for the country. In spite of the clear economic benefits of regulating river flows through a series of impoundments, one of the significant undesirable ecological consequences of this regulation has been the regular outbreaks of the pest blackfly species Simulium chutteri and S. damnosum s.l. (Diptera: Simuliidae). The current control programme, carried out by the South African National Department of Agriculture, uses regular applications, by helicopter, of the target-specific bacterial larvicide Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis. While cost-benefit analyses show significant benefits to the control programme, benefits could potentially be further increased through applying smaller volumes of larvicide in an optimised manner, which incorporates upstream residual amounts of pesticide through downstream carry. Using an optimisation technique applied in the West African Onchocerciasis Control Programme, to a 136 km stretch of the Orange River which includes 31 blackfly breeding sites, we demonstrate that 28.5% less larvicide could be used to potentially achieve the same control of blackfly. This translates into potential annual savings of between R540 000 and R1 800 000. A comparison of larvicide volumes estimated using traditional vs. optimised approaches at different discharges, illustrates that the savings on optimisation decline linearly with increasing flow volumes. Larvicide applications at the lowest discharge considered (40 m³·s^-1) showed the greatest benefits from optimisations, with benefits remaining but decreasing to a theoretical 30% up to median flows of 100 m3·s-1. Given that almost 70% of flows in July are less than 100 m³·s^-1, we suggest that an optimised approach is appropriate for the Orange River Blackfly Control Programme, particularly for flow volumes of less than 100 m³·s^-1. We recommend that trials be undertaken over two reaches of the Orange River, one using the traditional approach, and another using the optimised approach, to test the efficacy of using optimised volumes of B.t.i.

Cost effectiveness of preventing falls and improving mobility in people with Parkinson disease : protocol for an economic evaluation alongside a clinical trial

Background Cost of illness studies show that Parkinson disease (PD) is costly for individuals, the healthcare system and society. The costs of PD include both direct and indirect costs associated with falls and related injuries.
Methods This protocol describes a prospective economic analysis conducted alongside a randomised controlled trial (RCT). It evaluates whether physical therapy is more cost effective than usual care from the perspective of the health care system. Cost effectiveness will be evaluated using a three-way comparison of the cost per fall averted and the cost per quality adjusted life year saved across two physical therapy interventions and a control group.
Conclusion This study has the potential to determine whether targetted physical therapy as an adjunct to standard care can be cost effective in reducing falls in people with PD.

Energetic cost of bot fly parasitism in free-ranging eastern chipmunks

The energy and nutrient demands of parasites on their hosts are frequently invoked as an explanation for negative impacts of parasitism on host survival and reproductive success. Although cuterebrid bot flies are among the physically largest and most-studied insect parasites of mammals, the only study conducted on metabolic consequences of bot fly parasitism revealed a surprisingly small effect of bot flies on host metabolism. Here we test the prediction that bot fly parasitism increases the resting metabolic rate (RMR) of free-ranging eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus), particularly in juveniles who have not previously encountered parasites and have to allocate energy to growth. We found no effect of bot fly parasitism on adults. In juveniles, however, we found that RMR strongly increased with the number of bot fly larvae hosted. For a subset of 12 juveniles during a year where parasite prevalence was particularly high, we also compared the RMR before versus during the peak of bot fly prevalence, allowing each individual to act as its own control. Each bot fly larva resulted in a ~7.6% increase in the RMR of its host while reducing juvenile growth rates. Finally, bot fly parasitism at the juvenile stage was positively correlated with adult stage RMR, suggesting persistent effects of bot flies on RMR. This study is the first to show an important effect of bot fly parasitism on the metabolism and growth of a wild mammal. Our work highlights the importance of studying cost of parasitism over multiple years in natural settings, as negative effects on hosts are more likely to emerge in periods of high energetic demand (e.g. growing juveniles) and/or in harsh environmental conditions (e.g. low food availability).