On the solution of first excursion problems by simulation with applications to probabilistic seismic performance assessment

In a probabilistic assessment of the performance of structures subjected to uncertain environmental loads such as earthquakes, an important problem is to determine the probability that the structural response exceeds some specified limits within a given duration of interest. This problem is known as the first excursion problem, and it has been a challenging problem in the theory of stochastic dynamics and reliability analysis. In spite of the enormous amount of attention the problem has received, there is no procedure available for its general solution, especially for engineering problems of interest where the complexity of the system is large and the failure probability is small.

The application of simulation methods to solving the first excursion problem is investigated in this dissertation, with the objective of assessing the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitations modeled by stochastic processes. From a simulation perspective, the major difficulty in the first excursion problem comes from the large number of uncertain parameters often encountered in the stochastic description of the excitation. Existing simulation tools are examined, with special regard to their applicability in problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. Two efficient simulation methods are developed to solve the first excursion problem. The first method is developed specifically for linear dynamical systems, and it is found to be extremely efficient compared to existing techniques. The second method is more robust to the type of problem, and it is applicable to general dynamical systems. It is efficient for estimating small failure probabilities because the computational effort grows at a much slower rate with decreasing failure probability than standard Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation methods are applied to assess the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitation. Failure analysis is also carried out using the samples generated during simulation, which provide insight into the probable scenarios that will occur given that a structure fails.

An assessment of post-plague reintroduced native white-clawed crayfish, a Ustropotamobius pallipes, in the Sherston Avon and Tetbury Avon, Wiltshire

This article reports on the success of reintroducing native crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes) in the Sherston and Tetbury Avon, following extinction of the population from crayfish plague. The authors describe and review the survey methods that were used and identify a survey technique that was found to be the most rapid and robust for monitoring crayfish populations. Such a survey technique could be adopted as a standard method.

Corroborative studies on the effects of sample variation on three macroinvertebrate biological assessment methods at different water quality states

In recent collaborative biological sampling exercises organised by the Nottingham Regional Laboratory of the Severn-Trent Water Authority, the effect of handnet sampling variation on the quality and usefulness of the data obtained has been questioned, especially when this data is transcribed into one or more of the commonly used biological methods of water quality assessment. This study investigates if this effect is constant at sites with similar typography but differing water quality states when the sampling method is standardized and carried out by a single operator. An argument is made for the use of a lowest common denominator approach to give a more consistent result and obviate the effect of sampling variation on these biological assessment methods.

Implementation of the nursing process in a health area: models and assessment structures used

Objective: to analyze what nursing models and nursing assessment structures have been used in the implementation of the nursing process at the public and private centers in the health area Gipuzkoa (Basque Country). Method: a retrospective study was undertaken, based on the analysis of the nursing records used at the 158 centers studied. Results: the Henderson model, Carpenito's bifocal structure, Gordon's assessment structure and the Resident Assessment Instrument Nursing Home 2.0 have been used as nursing models and assessment structures to implement the nursing process. At some centers, the selected model or assessment structure has varied over time. Conclusion: Henderson's model has been the most used to implement the nursing process. Furthermore, the trend is observed to complement or replace Henderson's model by nursing assessment structures.

A working guide to the assessment, implementation and post project monitoring of fisheries habitat improvement schemes in South Cumbria

Due to changes in land use over the last century, the physical nature of many streams and rivers in the British Isles has probably changed. In some cases this change may be large for example as a result of flood defence schemes and is easily observed, whilst in other cases altered land use, farming, forestry or urbanization may have resulted in more subtle changes to river features. This working guide draws together a way of assessing habitat in any stream or river and determine sites or reaches on the assessed watercourse that may benefit from habitat improvement schemes. It will determine a method of measuring existing habitat in a broad sense, whilst referring to R and D studies currently being undertaken in this area. A method of prioritising any proposed habitat restoration work will be suggested. The limitations of fisheries improvement schemes in terms of cross functional acceptance (flood defence and conservation) will be examined along with suggested proposals for some example watercourses. The need for pre and post enhancement monitoring will be discussed as will the requirement for maintenance programs on schemes. Finally methods for determining the cost benefits of small schemes will be examined, compared to other currently used enhancement strategies. This will allow small scale revenue schemes to be used to back up pre project cost benefit analysis as required in future capital submissions.

An assessment of the efficiency of three active fish capture methods and a study of roach / bream hybrids on the Crossens drainage system near Southport.

An assessment of three methods of fish capture, to establish the best fishing method which reflects the best range of sizes and species of fish in a given area. The methods used were trawl netting, electrofishing, and seine netting which were assessed on the Crossens drainage system near Southport. The report also includes a study of roach / bream hybrids that were found at the site, which focuses on their distinguishing features and compared with the features of roach and bream.

A simple spreadsheet model to incorporate seasonal growth into length-based stock assessment methods

The paper describes a method by which seasonal growth can be incorporated into length-converted catch curves and cohort analyses using a spreadsheet. The method is based on calculating the length of fish using seasonal growth parameters on a daily basis. A LOOKUP function is then used to find the age corresponding to the length.

Indirect validation of the age-reading method for Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) using otoliths from marked and recaptured fish

Two examples of indirect validation are described for age-reading methods of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus). Aging criteria that exclude faint translucent zones (checks) in counts of annuli and criteria that include faint zones were both tested. Otoliths from marked and recaptured fish were used to back-calculate the length of each fish at the time of its release by using measurements of the area of annuli. Estimated fish size at time of release and actual observed fish size were similar, supporting the assumption that translucent zones are laid down on an annual basis. A second method for validating reading criteria used otolith age and von Bertalanffy parameters, estimated from the tagging data, to predict how much each fish grew in length after tagging. We found that otolith aging criteria applied to otoliths from tagged and recovered Pacific cod predicted quite accurately the growth increments that we observed in these specimens. These results provide further evidence that the current aging criteria are not underestimating the age of the fish and support our current interpretation of checks (i.e., as subannual marks). We expect these indirect validations to advance age determination for Pacific cod, which in turn would enhance development of stock assessment methods based on age structure for this species in the eastern Bering Sea.

Deriving acceptable biological catch from the overfishing limit: implications for assessment models

The recently revised Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act requires that U.S. fishery management councils avoid overfishing by setting annual catch limits (ACLs) not exceeding recommendations of the councils’ scientific advisers. To meet that requirement, the scientific advisers will need to know the overfishing limit (OFL) estimated in each stock assessment, with OFL being the catch available from applying the limit fishing mortality rate to current or projected stock biomass. The advisers then will derive ‘‘acceptable biological catch’’ (ABC) from OFL by reducing OFL to allow for scientific uncertainty, and ABC becomes their recommendation to the council. We suggest methodology based on simple probability theory by which scientific advisers can compute ABC from OFL and the statistical distribution of OFL as estimated by a stock assessment. Our method includes approximations to the distribution of OFL if it is not known from the assessment; however, we find it preferable to have the assessment model estimate the distribution of OFL directly. Probability-based methods such as this one provide well-defined approaches to setting ABC and may be helpful to scientific advisers as they translate the new legal requirement into concrete advice.

A sudden collapse in distribution of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) off southwestern Australia enables an objective re-assessment of biomass estimates

Fishery-independent estimates of spawning biomass (BSP) of the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) on the south and lower west coasts of Western Australia (WA) were obtained periodically between 1991 and 1999 by using the daily egg production method (DEPM). Ichthyoplankton data collected during these surveys, specifically the presence or absence of S. sagax eggs, were used to investigate trends in the spawning area of S. sagax within each of four regions. The expectation was that trends in BSP and spawning area were positively related. With the DEPM model, estimates of BSP will change proportionally with spawning area if all other variables remain constant. The proportion of positive stations (PPS), i.e., stations with nonzero egg counts — an objective estimator of spawning area — was high for all south coast regions during the early 1990s (a period when the estimated BSP was also high) and then decreased after the mid-1990s. There was a decrease in PPS from the mid-1990s to 1999. The particularly low estimates in 1999 followed a severe epidemic mass mortality of S. sagax throughout their range across southern Australia. Deviations from the expected relationship between BSP and PPS were used to identify uncertainty around estimates of BSP. Because estimation of spawning area is subject to less sampling bias than estimation of BSP, the deviation in the relation between the two provides an objective basis for adjusting some estimates of the latter. Such an approach is particularly useful for fisheries management purposes when sampling problems are suspected to be present. The analysis of PPS undertaken from the same set of samples from which the DEPM estimate is derived will help provide information for stock assessments and for the management of purse-seine fisheries.

A general framework for integrating environmental time series into stock assessment models: model description, simulation testing, and example

We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning.

Demographic assessment of the blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) in Chesapeake Bay using extractable lipofuscins as age markers

The blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) plays an important economic and ecological role in estuaries and coastal habitats from the Gulf of Mexico to the east coast of North America, but demographic assessments are limited by length-based methods. We applied an alternative aging method using biochemical measures of metabolic byproducts (lipofuscins) sequestered in the neural tissue of eyestalks to examine population age structure. From Chesapeake Bay, subsamples of animals collected from the 1998–99 (n=769) and 1999–2000 (n=367) winter dredge surveys were collected and lipofuscin was measured. Modal analysis of the lipofuscin index provided separation into three modes, whereas carapace-width data collected among the same individuals showed two broad modes. Lipofuscin modal analysis indicated that most adults (carapace width >120 mm) were <2 years old. The results indicate that use of extractable lipofuscin can provide a more accurate and better resolved estimation of demographic structure of blue crab populations in the field than size alone.

Report of Catch Assessment Survey of Lake Albert – Albert Nile conducted in July 2012

A Catch Assessment Surveys (CAS) with the overall objective of generating information on the fish production and commercial value of the fisheries of Lake Albert and Albert Nile system was implemented by the National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NAFIRRI) in collaboration with the Department of Fisheries Resources (DFR), Local Government staff (FOs) and BMU members at selected landing sites on Lake Albert (12 landing sites) and Albert Nile (26 landing sites) in July 2012. A total 622 and 313 boat days on Lake Albert and Albert Nile respectively were sampled for a period of 9 days. Results indicate an annual landing of 151,600 and 5,900 tonnes (t) of fish with an estimated beach value of 122.5 and 14 Billion (UShs) from Lake Albert and Albert Nile respectively. Over 80% of the catch from Lake Albert comprised the small pelagic species; Neobola bredoi (Muziri) and Brycinus nurse (Ragoogi) followed by Nile perch (6%). However, due to low market value of the small fishes and the high prices attached to Nile perch for industrial processing and export market, the contribution of the latter to beach value rose to 34% of the total. The contribution of the light fishery based on small pelagic species (B. nurse and N. bredoi) are insignificant on Albert Nile. Even if the small pelagic species may be present in the river system, a light fishery based on these two is yet to be developed. Proportionally, Albert Nile still remain a multispecies fishery with over 20 fish species harvested commercially. Interestingly, the Albert Nile fishery still remains primitive with simple crafts and gears (mainly dugout canoes, traps, and gillnets). This could suggest that the more developed the system becomes the higher the level of transformation in its fisheries leading to simplification, characterized by reduction in multispecies nature and dominance of few species. Illegal gears especially undersized gillnet of mesh size less than 4 inches were the most dominant in the Lake Albert and Albert Nile fisheries. They captured large quantities of immature fish particularly when used to target Nile perch, Bagrus, Nile tilapia, and large Barbus spp. Their impact when used to target the smaller species (Ragoogi, Angara & Ngasia) is yet to be evaluated. A specific study to analyze selectivity and impacts of these nets is a recommended. However, the dominance of 1.5” mesh sizes especially on Albert Nile to target Angara, Ngassia and Barbus, is definitely destructive to their fisheries and should be checked forthwith. In addition, there is an emerging fishing method locally referred to as “Salsio or Luzira” whereby fishers stay on the lake from 3 days up to 2 weeks without returning to the landing site. They carry with them food and salt for processing the catches on the lake, and in the case of Albert Nile on make shift shelters on islands and in the game park. They normally use gillnets of 3-3½ inch mesh size and caught mainly Nile perch & Bagrus (Pethi & Munama). On return they land several tons of fish. Most of these Catches are not captured in the estimates presented in our analyses since we target daily fishing boats. The possible impacts of this fishing method should be studied and appropriate action recommended.

Phone-level pronunciation scoring and assessment for interactive language learning

This paper investigates a method of automatic pronunciation scoring for use in computer-assisted language learning (CALL) systems. The method utilizes a likelihood-based `Goodness of Pronunciation' (GOP) measure which is extended to include individual thresholds for each phone based on both averaged native confidence scores and on rejection statistics provided by human judges. Further improvements are obtained by incorporating models of the subject's native language and by augmenting the recognition networks to include expected pronunciation errors. The various GOP measures are assessed using a specially recorded database of non-native speakers which has been annotated to mark phone-level pronunciation errors. Since pronunciation assessment is highly subjective, a set of four performance measures has been designed, each of them measuring different aspects of how well computer-derived phone-level scores agree with human scores. These performance measures are used to cross-validate the reference annotations and to assess the basic GOP algorithm and its refinements. The experimental results suggest that a likelihood-based pronunciation scoring metric can achieve usable performance, especially after applying the various enhancements.

Quantitative and qualitative assessment of plankton: some ecological aspect and water quality parameters of the river Meghna, Bangladesh

Investigation on the seasonal distribution and abundance of various major taxa of phyto and zooplankton and the corresponding physico-chemical characteristics were carried out in four selected stations between the latitude 22°35.494N N-23°23.987 N and longitude 90°35.793 E- 90°49.061 E of the Meghna river system, Bangladesh. Drop count method was followed for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of both phyto- and zooplankton. A total of 41 phytoplankton genera belonging to 17 families and 13 zooplankton genera belonging to 11 families were recorded. Zooplankton growth cycle was noticeably less (3.0%) than the phytoplankton abundance almost throughout the study period. Quantity of plankton registered to increase chronologically from the upper to lower stretches of the river. During summer investigation the load of phytoplankton was recorded maximum (11,300-51,850 No/1). Ratio-wise quantitative difference between zoo- and phytoplankton in composition of the total standing crop fluctuated between 1.0:5.5 and 1:1037. Among the phytoplanktonic groups, Chlorophyceae was found to be dominating (95.0%) in all sampling stations. Protococcus, a single genus of Chlorophyceae played a unique role during summer, contributing the highest density of about 74.0%. The pattern of qualitative and quantitative difference of plankton standing crop in different sampling sites can be attributed to the existing physico-chemical characteristics, mainly water temperature, pH and hardness.