Advanced mean field methods:theory and practice

A major problem in modern probabilistic modeling is the huge computational complexity involved in typical calculations with multivariate probability distributions when the number of random variables is large. Because exact computations are infeasible in such cases and Monte Carlo sampling techniques may reach their limits, there is a need for methods that allow for efficient approximate computations. One of the simplest approximations is based on the mean field method, which has a long history in statistical physics. The method is widely used, particularly in the growing field of graphical models. Researchers from disciplines such as statistical physics, computer science, and mathematical statistics are studying ways to improve this and related methods and are exploring novel application areas. Leading approaches include the variational approach, which goes beyond factorizable distributions to achieve systematic improvements; the TAP (Thouless-Anderson-Palmer) approach, which incorporates correlations by including effective reaction terms in the mean field theory; and the more general methods of graphical models. Bringing together ideas and techniques from these diverse disciplines, this book covers the theoretical foundations of advanced mean field methods, explores the relation between the different approaches, examines the quality of the approximation obtained, and demonstrates their application to various areas of probabilistic modeling.

Computer aided selection of candidate vaccine antigens

Immunoinformatics is an emergent branch of informatics science that long ago pullulated from the tree of knowledge that is bioinformatics. It is a discipline which applies informatic techniques to problems of the immune system. To a great extent, immunoinformatics is typified by epitope prediction methods. It has found disappointingly limited use in the design and discovery of new vaccines, which is an area where proper computational support is generally lacking. Most extant vaccines are not based around isolated epitopes but rather correspond to chemically-treated or attenuated whole pathogens or correspond to individual proteins extract from whole pathogens or correspond to complex carbohydrate. In this chapter we attempt to review what progress there has been in an as-yet-underexplored area of immunoinformatics: the computational discovery of whole protein antigens. The effective development of antigen prediction methods would significantly reduce the laboratory resource required to identify pathogenic proteins as candidate subunit vaccines. We begin our review by placing antigen prediction firmly into context, exploring the role of reverse vaccinology in the design and discovery of vaccines. We also highlight several competing yet ultimately complementary methodological approaches: sub-cellular location prediction, identifying antigens using sequence similarity, and the use of sophisticated statistical approaches for predicting the probability of antigen characteristics. We end by exploring how a systems immunomics approach to the prediction of immunogenicity would prove helpful in the prediction of antigens.

Modelling tribology of slider and disk in a computer hard drive system

Issues of wear and tribology are increasingly important in computer hard drives as slider flying heights are becoming lower and disk protective coatings thinner to minimise spacing loss and allow higher areal density. Friction, stiction and wear between the slider and disk in a hard drive were studied using Accelerated Friction Test (AFT) apparatus. Contact Start Stop (CSS) and constant speed drag tests were performed using commercial rigid disks and two different air bearing slider types. Friction and stiction were captured during testing by a set of strain gauges. System parameters were varied to investigate their effect on tribology at the head/disk interface. Chosen parameters were disk spinning velocity, slider fly height, temperature, humidity and intercycle pause. The effect of different disk texturing methods was also studied. Models were proposed to explain the influence of these parameters on tribology. Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) were used to study head and disk topography at various test stages and to provide physical parameters to verify the models. X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) was employed to identify surface composition and determine if any chemical changes had occurred as a result of testing. The parameters most likely to influence the interface were identified for both CSS and drag testing. Neural Network modelling was used to substantiate results. Topographical AFM scans of disk and slider were exported numerically to file and explored extensively. Techniques were developed which improved line and area analysis. A method for detecting surface contacts was also deduced, results supported and explained observed AFT behaviour. Finally surfaces were computer generated to simulate real disk scans, this allowed contact analysis of many types of surface to be performed. Conclusions were drawn about what disk characteristics most affected contacts and hence friction, stiction and wear.

Analysis and simulation of computer controlled cellular mobile radio systems

Cellular mobile radio systems will be of increasing importance in the future. This thesis describes research work concerned with the teletraffic capacity and the canputer control requirements of such systems. The work involves theoretical analysis and experimental investigations using digital computer simulation. New formulas are derived for the congestion in single-cell systems in which there are both land-to-mobile and mobile-to-mobile calls and in which mobile-to-mobile calls go via the base station. Two approaches are used, the first yields modified forms of the familiar Erlang and Engset formulas, while the second gives more complicated but more accurate formulas. The results of computer simulations to establish the accuracy of the formulas are described. New teletraffic formulas are also derived for the congestion in multi -cell systems. Fixed, dynamic and hybrid channel assignments are considered. The formulas agree with previously published simulation results. Simulation programs are described for the evaluation of the speech traffic of mobiles and for the investigation of a possible computer network for the control of the speech traffic. The programs were developed according to the structured progranming approach leading to programs of modular construction. Two simulation methods are used for the speech traffic: the roulette method and the time-true method. The first is economical but has some restriction, while the second is expensive but gives comprehensive answers. The proposed control network operates at three hierarchical levels performing various control functions which include: the setting-up and clearing-down of calls, the hand-over of calls between cells and the address-changing of mobiles travelling between cities. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the control netwvork and indicate that small mini -computers inter-connected via voice grade data channels would be capable of providing satisfactory control

Distributed control of computer communication systems

Flow control in Computer Communication systems is generally a multi-layered structure, consisting of several mechanisms operating independently at different levels. Evaluation of the performance of networks in which different flow control mechanisms act simultaneously is an important area of research, and is examined in depth in this thesis. This thesis presents the modelling of a finite resource computer communication network equipped with three levels of flow control, based on closed queueing network theory. The flow control mechanisms considered are: end-to-end control of virtual circuits, network access control of external messages at the entry nodes and the hop level control between nodes. The model is solved by a heuristic technique, based on an equivalent reduced network and the heuristic extensions to the mean value analysis algorithm. The method has significant computational advantages, and overcomes the limitations of the exact methods. It can be used to solve large network models with finite buffers and many virtual circuits. The model and its heuristic solution are validated by simulation. The interaction between the three levels of flow control are investigated. A queueing model is developed for the admission delay on virtual circuits with end-to-end control, in which messages arrive from independent Poisson sources. The selection of optimum window limit is considered. Several advanced network access schemes are postulated to improve the network performance as well as that of selected traffic streams, and numerical results are presented. A model for the dynamic control of input traffic is developed. Based on Markov decision theory, an optimal control policy is formulated. Numerical results are given and throughput-delay performance is shown to be better with dynamic control than with static control.

Mathematical methods in power system stability studies

In this thesis various mathematical methods of studying the transient and dynamic stabiIity of practical power systems are presented. Certain long established methods are reviewed and refinements of some proposed. New methods are presented which remove some of the difficulties encountered in applying the powerful stability theories based on the concepts of Liapunov. Chapter 1 is concerned with numerical solution of the transient stability problem. Following a review and comparison of synchronous machine models the superiority of a particular model from the point of view of combined computing time and accuracy is demonstrated. A digital computer program incorporating all the synchronous machine models discussed, and an induction machine model, is described and results of a practical multi-machine transient stability study are presented. Chapter 2 reviews certain concepts and theorems due to Liapunov. In Chapter 3 transient stability regions of single, two and multi~machine systems are investigated through the use of energy type Liapunov functions. The treatment removes several mathematical difficulties encountered in earlier applications of the method. In Chapter 4 a simple criterion for the steady state stability of a multi-machine system is developed and compared with established criteria and a state space approach. In Chapters 5, 6 and 7 dynamic stability and small signal dynamic response are studied through a state space representation of the system. In Chapter 5 the state space equations are derived for single machine systems. An example is provided in which the dynamic stability limit curves are plotted for various synchronous machine representations. In Chapter 6 the state space approach is extended to multi~machine systems. To draw conclusions concerning dynamic stability or dynamic response the system eigenvalues must be properly interpreted, and a discussion concerning correct interpretation is included. Chapter 7 presents a discussion of the optimisation of power system small sjgnal performance through the use of Liapunov functions.

Computer control of machines utilising independent drive mechanisms

The thesis describes an investigation into methods for the specification, design and implementation of computer control systems for flexible manufacturing machines comprising multiple, independent, electromechanically-driven mechanisms. An analysis is made of the elements of conventional mechanically-coupled machines in order that the operational functions of these elements may be identified. This analysis is used to define the scope of requirements necessary to specify the format, function and operation of a flexible, independently driven mechanism machine. A discussion of how this type of machine can accommodate modern manufacturing needs of high-speed and flexibility is presented. A sequential method of capturing requirements for such machines is detailed based on a hierarchical partitioning of machine requirements from product to independent drive mechanism. A classification of mechanisms using notations, including Data flow diagrams and Petri-nets, is described which supports capture and allows validation of requirements. A generic design for a modular, IDM machine controller is derived based upon hierarchy of control identified in these machines. A two mechanism experimental machine is detailed which is used to demonstrate the application of the specification, design and implementation techniques. A computer controller prototype and a fully flexible implementation for the IDM machine, based on Petri-net models described using the concurrent programming language Occam, is detailed. The ability of this modular computer controller to support flexible, safe and fault-tolerant operation of the two intermittent motion, discrete-synchronisation independent drive mechanisms is presented. The application of the machine development methodology to industrial projects is established.

Computer aided process planning (CAPP) for flat rolling of copper alloys

The manufacture of copper alloy flat rolled metals involves hot and cold rolling operations, together with annealing and other secondary processes, to transform castings (mainly slabs and cakes) into such shapes as strip, plate, sheet, etc. Production is mainly to customer orders in a wide range of specifications for dimensions and properties. However, order quantities are often small and so process planning plays an important role in this industry. Much research work has been done in the past in relation to the technology of flat rolling and the details of the operations, however, there is little or no evidence of any research in the planning of processes for this type of manufacture. Practical observation in a number of rolling mills has established the type of manual process planning traditionally used in this industry. This manual approach, however, has inherent drawbacks, being particularly dependent on the individual planners who gain their knowledge over a long span of practical experience. The introduction of the retrieval CAPP approach to this industry was a first step to reduce these problems. But this could not provide a long-term answer because of the need for an experienced planner to supervise generation of any plan. It also fails to take account of the dynamic nature of the parameters involved in the planning, such as the availability of resources, operation conditions and variations in the costs. The other alternative is the use of a generative approach to planning in the rolling mill context. In this thesis, generative methods are developed for the selection of optimal routes for single orders and then for batches of orders, bearing in mind equipment restrictions, production costs and material yield. The batch order process planning involves the use of a special cluster analysis algorithm for optimal grouping of the orders. This research concentrates on cold-rolling operations. A prototype model of the proposed CAPP system, including both single order and batch order planning options, has been developed and tested on real order data in the industry. The results were satisfactory and compared very favourably with the existing manual and retrieval methods.

Computer aided design and analysis of cold formed sections

The work reported in this thesis is concerned with the improvement and expansion of the assistance given to the designer by the computer in the design of cold formed sections. The main contributions have been in four areas, which have consequently led to the fifth, the development of a methodology to optimise designs. This methodology can be considered an `Expert Design System' for cold formed sections. A different method of determining section properties of profiles was introduced, using the properties of line and circular elements. Graphics were introduced to show the outline of the profile on screen. The analysis of beam loading has been expanded to beam loading conditions where the number of supports, point loads, and uniform distributive loads can be specified by the designer. The profile can then be checked for suitability for the specified type of loading. Artificial Intelligence concepts have been introduced to give the designer decision support from the computer, in combination with the computer aided design facilities. The more complex decision support was adopted through the use of production rules. All the support was based on the British standards. A method has been introduced, by which the appropriate use of stiffeners can be determined and consequently designed by the designer. Finally, the methodology by which the designer is given assistance from the computer, without constraining the designer, was developed. This methodology gives advice to the designer on possible methods of improving the design, but allows the designer to reject that option, and analyse the profile accordingly. The methodology enables optimisation to be achieved by the designer, designing variety of profiles for a particular loading, and determining which one is best suited.

Computer aided geometric design of form-rolls for NC manufacture

Conventional methods of form-roll design and manufacture for Cold Roll-Forming of thin-walled metal sections have been entirely manual, time consuming and prone to errors, resulting in inefficiency and high production costs. With the use of computers, lead time can be significantly improved, particularly for those aspects involving routine but tedious human decisions and actions. This thesis describes the development of computer aided tools for producing form-roll designs for NC manufacture in the CAD/CAM environment. The work was undertaken to modernise the existing activity of a company manufacturing thin-walled sections. The investigated areas of the activity, including the design and drafting of the finished section, the flower patterns, the 10 to 1 templates, and the rolls complete with pinch-difference surfaces, side-rolls and extension-contours, have been successfully computerised by software development . Data generated by the developed software can be further processed for roll manufacturing using NC lathes. The software has been specially designed for portability to facilitate its implementation on different computers. The Opening-Radii method of forming was introduced as a subsitute to the conventional method for better forming. Most of the essential aspects in roll design have been successfully incorporated in the software. With computerisation, extensive standardisation in existing roll design practices and the use of more reliable and scientifically-based methods have been achieved. Satisfactory and beneficial results have also been obtained by the company in using the software through a terminal linked to the University by a GPO line. Both lead time and productivity in roll design and manufacture have been significantly improved. It is therefore concluded that computerisation in the design of form-rolls for automation by software development is viable. The work also demonstrated the promising nature of the CAD/CAM approach.

A simulation study of a localised computer network

An investigation is carried out into the design of a small local computer network for eventual implementation on the University of Aston campus. Microprocessors are investigated as a possible choice for use as a node controller for reasons of cost and reliability. Since the network will be local, high speed lines of megabit order are proposed. After an introduction to several well known networks, various aspects of networks are discussed including packet switching, functions of a node and host-node protocol. Chapter three develops the network philosophy with an introduction to microprocessors. Various organisations of microprocessors into multicomputer and multiprocessor systems are discussed, together with methods of achieving reliabls computing. Chapter four presents the simulation model and its implentation as a computer program. The major modelling effort is to study the behaviour of messages queueing for access to the network and the message delay experienced on the network. Use is made of spectral analysis to determine the sampling frequency while Sxponentially Weighted Noving Averages are used for data smoothing.

Industrial new product planning:a study of the sources of new product ideas and the development of new product proposals in the UK computer industry

This thesis presents a study of the sources of new product ideas and the development of new product proposals in an organisation in the UK Computer Industry. The thesis extends the work of von Hippel by showing how the phenomenon which he describes as "the Customer Active Paradigm for new product idea generation" can be observed to operate in this Industry. Furthermore, this thesis contrasts his Customer Active Paradigm with the more usually encountered Manufacturer Active Paradigm. In a second area, the thesis draws a number of conclusions relating to methods of market research, confirming existing observations and demonstrating the suitability of flexible interview strategies in certain circumstances. The thesis goes on to demonstrate the importance of free information flow within the organisation, making it more likely that sought and unsought opportunities can be exploited. It is shown that formal information flows and documents are a necessary but not sufficient means of influencing the formation of the organisation's dominant ideas on new product areas. The findings also link the work of Tushman and Katz on the role of "Gatekeepers" with the work of von Hippel by showing that the role of gatekeeper is particularly appropriate and useful to an organisation changing from Customer Active to Manufacturer Active methods of idea generation. Finally, the thesis provides conclusions relating to the exploitation of specific new product opportunities facing the sponsoring organisation.

The application of parallel processing methods to vibrational analysis

The trend in modal extraction algorithms is to use all the available frequency response functions data to obtain a global estimate of the natural frequencies, damping ratio and mode shapes. Improvements in transducer and signal processing technology allow the simultaneous measurement of many hundreds of channels of response data. The quantity of data available and the complexity of the extraction algorithms make considerable demands on the available computer power and require a powerful computer or dedicated workstation to perform satisfactorily. An alternative to waiting for faster sequential processors is to implement the algorithm in parallel, for example on a network of Transputers. Parallel architectures are a cost effective means of increasing computational power, and a larger number of response channels would simply require more processors. This thesis considers how two typical modal extraction algorithms, the Rational Fraction Polynomial method and the Ibrahim Time Domain method, may be implemented on a network of transputers. The Rational Fraction Polynomial Method is a well known and robust frequency domain 'curve fitting' algorithm. The Ibrahim Time Domain method is an efficient algorithm that 'curve fits' in the time domain. This thesis reviews the algorithms, considers the problems involved in a parallel implementation, and shows how they were implemented on a real Transputer network.

A comparison of pseudo-paper and paper prototyping methods for mobile evaluations

The research presented in this paper is part of an ongoing investigation into how best to support meaningful lab-based usability evaluations of mobile technologies. In particular, we report on a comparative study of (a) a standard paper prototype of a mobile application used to perform an early-phase seated (static) usability evaluation, and (b) a pseudo-paper prototype created from the paper prototype used to perform an early-phase,contextually-relevant, mobile usability evaluation. We draw some initial conclusions regarding whether it is worth the added effort of conducting a usability evaluation of a pseudo-paper prototype in a contextually-relevant setting during early-phase user interface development.