906 resultados para Complex systems prediction


Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In this paper, we present a study on a deterministic partially self-avoiding walk (tourist walk), which provides a novel method for texture feature extraction. The method is able to explore an image on all scales simultaneously. Experiments were conducted using different dynamics concerning the tourist walk. A new strategy, based on histograms. to extract information from its joint probability distribution is presented. The promising results are discussed and compared to the best-known methods for texture description reported in the literature. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This Letter addresses the problem of modeling the highway systems of different countries by using complex networks formalism. More specifically, we compare two traditional geographical models with a modified geometrical network model where paths, rather than edges, are incorporated at each step between the origin and the destination vertices. Optimal configurations of parameters are obtained for each model and used for the comparison. The highway networks of Australia, Brazil, India, and Romania are considered and shown to be properly modeled by the modified geographical model. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In this work we study, under the Stratonovich definition, the problem of the damped oscillatory massive particle subject to a heterogeneous Poisson noise characterized by a rate of events, lambda(t), and a magnitude, Phi, following an exponential distribution. We tackle the problem by performing exact time averages over the noise in a similar way to previous works analysing the problem of the Brownian particle. From this procedure we obtain the long-term equilibrium distributions of position and velocity as well as analytical asymptotic expressions for the injection and dissipation of energy terms. Considerations on the emergence of stochastic resonance in this type of system are also set forth.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Mathematical models, as instruments for understanding the workings of nature, are a traditional tool of physics, but they also play an ever increasing role in biology - in the description of fundamental processes as well as that of complex systems. In this review, the authors discuss two examples of the application of group theoretical methods, which constitute the mathematical discipline for a quantitative description of the idea of symmetry, to genetics. The first one appears, in the form of a pseudo-orthogonal (Lorentz like) symmetry, in the stochastic modelling of what may be regarded as the simplest possible example of a genetic network and, hopefully, a building block for more complicated ones: a single self-interacting or externally regulated gene with only two possible states: ` on` and ` off`. The second is the algebraic approach to the evolution of the genetic code, according to which the current code results from a dynamical symmetry breaking process, starting out from an initial state of complete symmetry and ending in the presently observed final state of low symmetry. In both cases, symmetry plays a decisive role: in the first, it is a characteristic feature of the dynamics of the gene switch and its decay to equilibrium, whereas in the second, it provides the guidelines for the evolution of the coding rules.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This study reports a systematic state-of-the-art characterization of new sulfur-chlorine species on the [H, S(2), Cl] potential energy surface. Coupled cluster theory singles and doubles with perturbative contributions of connected triples, using the series of correlation consistent basis sets with extrapolations to the complete basis set limit (CBS), were employed to quantify the energetic quantities involved in the isomerization processes on this surface. The structures and vibrational frequencies are unique for some species and represent the most accurate investigation to date. These molecules are potentially a new route of coupling the sulfur and chlorine chemistries in the atmosphere, and conditions of high concentration of H(2)S (HS) like in volcanic eruptions might contribute to their formation. Also an assessment of the MP2/CBS approach relative to CCSD(T)/CBS provides insights on the expected performance of MP2/CBS on the characterization of polysulfides, and also of more complex systems containing disulfide bridges. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This work reports a state-of-the-art theoretical characterization of four new sulfur-bromine species and five transition states on the [H, S(2), Br] potential energy surface. Our highest level theoretical approach employed the method coupled cluster singles and doubles with perturbative contributions of connected triples, CCSD(T), along with the series of correlation-consistent basis sets and with extrapolation to the complete basis set (CBS) limit in the optimization of the geometrical parameters and to quantify the energetic quantities. The structural and vibrational frequencies here reported are unique and represent the most accurate investigation to date of these species. The global minimum corresponds to a skewed structure HSSBr with a disulfide bond; this is followed by a pyramidal-like structure, SSHBr, 18.85 kcal/mol above the minimum. Much higher in energy, we found another skewed structure, HSBrS (50.29 kcal/mol), with one S-Br dative-type bond, and another pyramidal-like one, HBrSS (109.80 kcal/mol), with two S-Br dative-type bonds. The interconversion of HSSBr into SSHBr can occur via a transfer of either the hydrogen or the bromine atom but involves a very high barrier of about 43 kcal/mol. These molecules are potentially a new route of coupling the sulfur and bromine chemistry in the atmosphere, and conditions of high concentration of H(2)S like in volcanic eruptions might contribute to their formation. We note that HSSBr can act as a reservoir molecule for the reaction between the radicals HSS and Br. Also, an assessment of the methods DFT/B3LYP/CBS and MP2/CBS relative to CCSD(T)/CBS provides insights on the expected performance of these methods on the characterization of polysulfides and also of more complex systems containing disulfide bridges.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

BDI agent languages provide a useful abstraction for complex systems comprised of interactive autonomous entities, but they have been used mostly in the context of single agents with a static plan library of behaviours invoked reactively. These languages provide a theoretically sound basis for agent design but are very limited in providing direct support for autonomy and societal cooperation needed for large scale systems. Some techniques for autonomy and cooperation have been explored in the past in ad hoc implementations, but not incorporated in any agent language. In order to address these shortcomings we extend the well known AgentSpeak(L) BDI agent language to include behaviour generation through planning, declarative goals and motivated goal adoption. We also develop a language-specific multiagent cooperation scheme and, to address potential problems arising from autonomy in a multiagent system, we extend our agents with a mechanism for norm processing leveraging existing theoretical work. These extensions allow for greater autonomy in the resulting systems, enabling them to synthesise new behaviours at runtime and to cooperate in non-scripted patterns.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe how order-generated rules applied to organizing form dualities can assist in creating the conditions for emergent, self-organized behavior in organizations, thereby offering an operational deployment of complexity theory.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper begins by showing that the concept of dualities is consistent with complexity-thinking. In addition, when applied to organizing forms, dualities represent a practical way of affecting an organization's balance between chaos and order. Thus, when augmented with order-generating rules, organizing form dualities provide an access point for the practical instigation of edge of chaos conditions and the potential for emergence.

Findings
– The paper maintains that many attempts to “manage” complexity have been associated with changes to organizing forms, specifically toward new forms of organizing. It is suggested that organizing form dualities provide some management guidance for encouraging the “edge of chaos” conditions advocated in complexity theory, although the details of self-organization cannot be prescribed given the assumptions of non-linearity associated with complexity theory perspectives. Finally, it is proposed that organizing dualities can elucidate the nature and application of order-generating rules in non-linear complex systems.

Practical implications – Dualities offer some guidance toward the practical implementation of complexity theory as they represent an accessible sub-system where the forces for order and chaos – traditional and new forms of organizing respectively – are accessible and subject to manipulation.

Originality/value
– The commonalities between dualities and complexity theory are intuitive, but little conceptual work has shown how the former can be employed as a guide to managing organizing forms. Moreover, this approach demonstrates that managers may be able to stimulate “edge of chaos” conditions in a practical way, without making positivistic assumptions about the causality associated with their efforts.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

For making good decisions in the area of petroleum production, it is becoming a big problem how to timely gather sufficient and correct information, which may be stored in databases, data files, or on the World Wide Web. In this paper, Gaia methodology and Open Agent Architecture were employed to contribute a framework to solve above problem. The framework consists of three levels, namely, role mode, agent type, and agent instance. The model with five roles is analyzed. Four agent types are designed Six agent instances are developed for constructing the system of petroleum information services. The experimental results show that all agents in the system can work cooperatively to organize and retrieve relevant petroleum information. The successful implementation of the framework shows that agent-based technology can significantly facilitate the construction of complex systems in distributed heterogeneous data resource environment.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Multi-agent Systems (MASs) offer strong models for representing complex and dynamic real-world environments. Taking financial investment planning as an example, this paper describes how to model complex systems from agent perspectives. Different agents and their behaviours are identified for financial investment planning. These agents are put together as an agent-based system. The experimental results show that all agents in the system can work cooperatively to provide reasonable investment advice. The system is very flexible and robust. The success of the system indicates that (MASs) can significantly facilitate the modelling of complex systems.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This thesis provides an examination of the work of instructional designers in distance education, through the conceptual lens of chaos theory. Chaos theory was chosen as an analytical tool because of its ability to reveal the patterns and processes of complex systems as they move between order and turbulence. Recent work in the social sciences, specifically literary theory, has provided impetus for applications of chaos theory to educational settings. Specifically, chaos theory is used to analyse eight case studies of projects volunteered by instructional designers working in five institutions in Hong Kong and Australia. Data were gathered over a period of months with each participant, chiefly through interviews, but also involving diary accounts, electronic mail and letters. The methodology was thus qualitative, specifically informed by Eisner's vision of the ‘critical connoisseur’. Eisner equates an ‘enlightened eye’ with attainment of the skills of a critical connoisseur. First, an effective qualitative researcher must develop connoisseurship, the art of appreciation. On its own, though, connoisseurship is not enough; it is a private act, and thus needs a public face or presence. Criticism is this link, criticism being the art of disclosure. The critical connoisseur aims to help others to increase perception and deepen understanding of an educational situation or event. In addition to the empirical work, a parallel strand of this thesis investigates the theory and reported practice of instructional design. A brief history of instructional design is presented, along with discussion of acknowledged deficiencies of current theory and approaches. Recent reported investigations of both theory and practice are analysed from the viewpoint of chaos theory. Examination of key contributions in the literature of instructional design and distance education reveals considerable resonance between these contributions and the fundamental properties of chaotic systems. Links are made, in both the theoretical and empirical strands, between instructional design and the behaviour of dissipative structures, attractors and the process of bifurcation. Use is also made of the time-dependent nature of chaos theory as a theory of becoming, rather than one of being. The thesis comprises eight chapters, two appendices and a references section. The introductory chapter explains the research problem, and outlines the structure of the thesis. Methodological considerations are left until after an assessment of instructional design literature and (reported) practice. This deliberately theoretical investigation (Chapters 2 and 3) comprises the first of the parallel strands that are presented. The basic conclusions are that instructional design theory has not been particularly helpful to or used by instructional designers, and that chaos theory might provide an alternative way of viewing instructional design practice. The other parallel strand is the empirical work, which for four chapters outlines the methodology and my findings concerning the role of instructional designers in distance education. The methodology is detailed in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 establishes the contexts of the participants, by examining their backgrounds and introductions to their roles. It also investigates their views on their role and status within their institutions and with working colleagues. Chapter 6 is an exploration of the major issues that influenced the work of the instructional designers. These are the issues that arose naturally in the interviews as the participants outlined the development and interactions that took place on a day to day basis. Time emerges as a key influence in their work, and its effects on the projects are outlined and analysed. The ways that instructional designers give advice to those with whom they work is also investigated. The next chapter continues consideration of their work, but this time as they reflect on their role and its demands. This includes their reactions to the various metaphors that have appeared in the literature, along with those that they introduced into our discussions. The links that are established between the two parallel strands are drawn more explicitly in the final chapter, Chapter 8, which is a notion of what a model of instructional design based on my conclusions might resemble. It summarises the evidence that it is not necessarily by striving for order—in fact quite the opposite — during key periods of course development, that leads to creative outcomes. The introduction of uncertainty and turbulence does, in some cases and under some conditions, move the system to a higher level. The image that is offered from chaos theory is that of time-bound dissipative structures, interacting with their open environment at far-from-equilibrium conditions, and transforming themselves from disorder to order through bifurcation. The role of strange or chaotic attractors is highlighted in the process. The first appendix gives background information in terms of the methodology. The second is the heart of the data upon which the thesis draws. That is, the second appendix outlines the case studies of the participants. Most are short summaries, but the final one is a detailed study, tracing the progress of the design and development of a subject in distance education.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Modeling helps to understand and predict the outcome of complex systems. Inductive modeling methodologies are beneficial for modeling the systems where the uncertainties involved in the system do not permit to obtain an accurate physical model. However inductive models, like artificial neural networks (ANNs), may suffer from a few drawbacks involving over-fitting and the difficulty to easily understand the model itself. This can result in user reluctance to accept the model or even complete rejection of the modeling results. Thus, it becomes highly desirable to make such inductive models more comprehensible and to automatically determine the model complexity to avoid over-fitting. In this paper, we propose a novel type of ANN, a mixed transfer function artificial neural network (MTFANN), which aims to improve the complexity fitting and comprehensibility of the most popular type of ANN (MLP - a Multilayer Perceptron).

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Pulsed field gradient NMR is a powerful method for the measurement of diffusion coefficients in liquids and solids and has begun to attract much attention in the ionic liquids field. However, aspects of the methodology as traditionally applied to solutions may not be uniformly applicable in these more viscous and chemically complex systems. In this paper we present data which shows that the Pulsed Gradient Spin Echo (PGSE) method in particular suffers from intrinsic internal gradients and can produce apparent diffusion coefficients which vary by as much as 20% for different 1H nuclei within a given moleculean obvious anomaly. In contrast, we show that the Pulsed Gradient Stimulated Echo method does not suffer from this problem to the same extent and produces self-consistent data to a high degree of accuracy (better than 1%). This level of significance has allowed the detection, in this work, of subtle mixing effects in [C3mpyr][NTf2] and [C4mpyr][NTf2] mixtures.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

How best to assess trade and industrial policy in developing countries is a controversial question that unlocks a host of modelling complexities. Large computable general-equilibrium (CGE) models dominate many economic policy debates, but recent developments in the field have demonstrated that it is by no means clear that they give reliable results to questions of how trade reforms affect the poor. Over the last decade or so, a new approach to modelling complex systems has emerged using agent-based models (ABMs). This paper explores the question of whether ABMs are useful for economic policy-makers seeking to quantitatively model the effects of trade and industrial policies and whether constructive interfaces could be developed between CGE models and ABMs. The paper argues that in developing economic policy, ABMs can and should be used in conjunction with CGE models and that there is much to be gained from a greater understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different modelling approaches, and what domains are most appropriate for their use. It concludes with some reflections on the reasons for the success of CGE approaches and ways in which ABMs could be made more widely understood and used among economists.