Development of Clinical Decision Support Systems based on Mathematical Models of Physiological Systems

In the last years of research, I focused my studies on different physiological problems. Together with my supervisors, I developed/improved different mathematical models in order to create valid tools useful for a better understanding of important clinical issues. The aim of all this work is to develop tools for learning and understanding cardiac and cerebrovascular physiology as well as pathology, generating research questions and developing clinical decision support systems useful for intensive care unit patients. I. ICP-model Designed for Medical Education We developed a comprehensive cerebral blood flow and intracranial pressure model to simulate and study the complex interactions in cerebrovascular dynamics caused by multiple simultaneous alterations, including normal and abnormal functional states of auto-regulation of the brain. Individual published equations (derived from prior animal and human studies) were implemented into a comprehensive simulation program. Included in the normal physiological modelling was: intracranial pressure, cerebral blood flow, blood pressure, and carbon dioxide (CO2) partial pressure. We also added external and pathological perturbations, such as head up position and intracranial haemorrhage. The model performed clinically realistically given inputs of published traumatized patients, and cases encountered by clinicians. The pulsatile nature of the output graphics was easy for clinicians to interpret. The manoeuvres simulated include changes of basic physiological inputs (e.g. blood pressure, central venous pressure, CO2 tension, head up position, and respiratory effects on vascular pressures) as well as pathological inputs (e.g. acute intracranial bleeding, and obstruction of cerebrospinal outflow). Based on the results, we believe the model would be useful to teach complex relationships of brain haemodynamics and study clinical research questions such as the optimal head-up position, the effects of intracranial haemorrhage on cerebral haemodynamics, as well as the best CO2 concentration to reach the optimal compromise between intracranial pressure and perfusion. We believe this model would be useful for both beginners and advanced learners. It could be used by practicing clinicians to model individual patients (entering the effects of needed clinical manipulations, and then running the model to test for optimal combinations of therapeutic manoeuvres). II. A Heterogeneous Cerebrovascular Mathematical Model Cerebrovascular pathologies are extremely complex, due to the multitude of factors acting simultaneously on cerebral haemodynamics. In this work, the mathematical model of cerebral haemodynamics and intracranial pressure dynamics, described in the point I, is extended to account for heterogeneity in cerebral blood flow. The model includes the Circle of Willis, six regional districts independently regulated by autoregulation and CO2 reactivity, distal cortical anastomoses, venous circulation, the cerebrospinal fluid circulation, and the intracranial pressure-volume relationship. Results agree with data in the literature and highlight the existence of a monotonic relationship between transient hyperemic response and the autoregulation gain. During unilateral internal carotid artery stenosis, local blood flow regulation is progressively lost in the ipsilateral territory with the presence of a steal phenomenon, while the anterior communicating artery plays the major role to redistribute the available blood flow. Conversely, distal collateral circulation plays a major role during unilateral occlusion of the middle cerebral artery. In conclusion, the model is able to reproduce several different pathological conditions characterized by heterogeneity in cerebrovascular haemodynamics and can not only explain generalized results in terms of physiological mechanisms involved, but also, by individualizing parameters, may represent a valuable tool to help with difficult clinical decisions. III. Effect of Cushing Response on Systemic Arterial Pressure. During cerebral hypoxic conditions, the sympathetic system causes an increase in arterial pressure (Cushing response), creating a link between the cerebral and the systemic circulation. This work investigates the complex relationships among cerebrovascular dynamics, intracranial pressure, Cushing response, and short-term systemic regulation, during plateau waves, by means of an original mathematical model. The model incorporates the pulsating heart, the pulmonary circulation and the systemic circulation, with an accurate description of the cerebral circulation and the intracranial pressure dynamics (same model as in the first paragraph). Various regulatory mechanisms are included: cerebral autoregulation, local blood flow control by oxygen (O2) and/or CO2 changes, sympathetic and vagal regulation of cardiovascular parameters by several reflex mechanisms (chemoreceptors, lung-stretch receptors, baroreceptors). The Cushing response has been described assuming a dramatic increase in sympathetic activity to vessels during a fall in brain O2 delivery. With this assumption, the model is able to simulate the cardiovascular effects experimentally observed when intracranial pressure is artificially elevated and maintained at constant level (arterial pressure increase and bradicardia). According to the model, these effects arise from the interaction between the Cushing response and the baroreflex response (secondary to arterial pressure increase). Then, patients with severe head injury have been simulated by reducing intracranial compliance and cerebrospinal fluid reabsorption. With these changes, oscillations with plateau waves developed. In these conditions, model results indicate that the Cushing response may have both positive effects, reducing the duration of the plateau phase via an increase in cerebral perfusion pressure, and negative effects, increasing the intracranial pressure plateau level, with a risk of greater compression of the cerebral vessels. This model may be of value to assist clinicians in finding the balance between clinical benefits of the Cushing response and its shortcomings. IV. Comprehensive Cardiopulmonary Simulation Model for the Analysis of Hypercapnic Respiratory Failure We developed a new comprehensive cardiopulmonary model that takes into account the mutual interactions between the cardiovascular and the respiratory systems along with their short-term regulatory mechanisms. The model includes the heart, systemic and pulmonary circulations, lung mechanics, gas exchange and transport equations, and cardio-ventilatory control. Results show good agreement with published patient data in case of normoxic and hyperoxic hypercapnia simulations. In particular, simulations predict a moderate increase in mean systemic arterial pressure and heart rate, with almost no change in cardiac output, paralleled by a relevant increase in minute ventilation, tidal volume and respiratory rate. The model can represent a valid tool for clinical practice and medical research, providing an alternative way to experience-based clinical decisions. In conclusion, models are not only capable of summarizing current knowledge, but also identifying missing knowledge. In the former case they can serve as training aids for teaching the operation of complex systems, especially if the model can be used to demonstrate the outcome of experiments. In the latter case they generate experiments to be performed to gather the missing data.

Il ruolo della Narrative in Medical Ethics, Medical Practice e Medical Education. Elementi di ricerca

La mia tesi di dottorato ha ad oggetto lo studio e l’analisi del ruolo della Narrative all’interno di tre ambiti, quali Medical Ethics, Clinical Practice e Medical Education. La tesi è strutturata in 4 capitoli: i primi tre vanno a comporre la parte teorica mentre nel quarto capitolo viene riportata una ricerca sul campo da me svolta negli Stati Uniti. Nel primo capitolo, analizzo il ruolo della narrative all’interno della Medical Ethics specificando che cosa si intenda con etica narrativa, quali sono le motivazione alla base del suo sviluppo e chi sono i suoi principali esponenti. In questo capitolo, inoltre, esamino i problemi che l’etica narrativa solleva suggerendo un nuovo modo in cui essa si integra alla riflessione bioetica. Il secondo capitolo è dedicato al contributo della narrative nella Medical Practice investigando sia le modalità attraverso le quali il paziente può avvalersi della narrazione per analizzare la sua esperienza di malattia sia la cosiddetta Medicina Narrativa. Il terzo capitolo è dedicato all'analisi delle Medical Humanities, ossia di quelle discipline che all’interno della Medical Education si stanno rivelando strumenti efficaci per una formazione più equilibrata e completa dei professionisti della salute. Il quarto capitolo, invece, è dedicato alla descrizione di una ricerca svolta presso l’University of California – Irvine . Durante questa esperienza ho frequentato i corsi del Program in Medical Humanities and Arts diretto dalla Prof.ssa J. Shapiro, (programma in vigore da 13 anni e implementato allo scopo di migliorare alcune competenze nei futuri medici quali: l'empatia, l’altruismo, la compassione e la predisposizione alla cura verso i pazienti, oltre che per affinare le comunicazione clinica e la capacità di osservazione) e intervistato gli studenti che hanno preso parte a queste lezioni.

Ranibizumab (Lucentis) in neovascular age-related macular degeneration: evidence from clinical trials

BACKGROUND: Neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD) has a poor prognosis if left untreated, frequently resulting in legal blindness. Ranibizumab is approved for treating neovascular AMD. However, further guidance is needed to assist ophthalmologists in clinical practice to optimise treatment outcomes. METHODS: An international retina expert panel assessed evidence available from prospective, multicentre studies evaluating different ranibizumab treatment schedules (ANCHOR, MARINA, PIER, SAILOR, SUSTAIN and EXCITE) and a literature search to generate evidence-based and consensus recommendations for treatment indication and assessment, retreatment and monitoring. RESULTS: Ranibizumab is indicated for choroidal neovascular lesions with active disease, the clinical parameters of which are outlined. Treatment initiation with three consecutive monthly injections, followed by continued monthly injections, has provided the best visual-acuity outcomes in pivotal clinical trials. If continued monthly injections are not feasible after initiation, a flexible strategy appears viable, with monthly monitoring of lesion activity recommended. Initiation regimens of fewer than three injections have not been assessed. Continuous careful monitoring with flexible retreatment may help avoid vision loss recurring. Standardised biomarkers need to be determined. CONCLUSION: Evidence-based guidelines will help to optimise treatment outcomes with ranibizumab in neovascular AMD.

Impact of stent overlap on angiographic and long-term clinical outcome in patients undergoing drug-eluting stent implantation

Objectives We compared the angiographic and long-term clinical outcomes of patients with and without overlap of drug-eluting stents (DES). Background DES overlap has been associated with delayed healing and increased inflammation in experimental studies, but its impact on clinical outcome is not well established. Methods We analyzed the angiographic and clinical outcomes of 1,012 patients treated with DES in the SIRTAX (Sirolimus-Eluting Versus Paclitaxel-Eluting Stents for Coronary Revascularization) trial according to the presence or absence of stent overlap and the number of stents per vessel: 134 (13.2%) patients with multiple DES in a vessel with overlap, 199 (19.7%) patients with multiple DES in a vessel without overlap, and 679 (67.1%) patients with 1 DES per vessel. Results Angiographic follow-up at 8 months showed an increased late loss in DES overlap patients (0.33 ± 0.61 mm) compared with the other groups (0.18 ± 0.43 mm and 0.15 ± 0.38 mm, p < 0.01). The smallest minimal lumen diameter was located at the zone of stent overlap in 17 (68%) of 25 patients with stent overlap who underwent target lesion revascularization. Major adverse cardiac events were more common in patients with DES overlap (34 events, 25.4%) than in the other groups (42 events, 21.1% and 95 events, 14.0%) at 3 years (p < 0.01). Both the risk of target lesion revascularization (20.2% vs. 16.1% vs. 9.7%, p < 0.01) and the composite of death or myocardial infarction (17.2% vs. 14.1% vs. 9.1%, p = 0.01) were increased in patients with DES overlap compared with the other groups. Conclusions DES overlap occurs in >10% of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention in routine clinical practice and is associated with impaired angiographic and long-term clinical outcome, including death or myocardial infarction. (Sirolimus-Eluting Versus Paclitaxel-Eluting Stents for Coronary Revascularization; NCT00297661).

Host and viral genetic correlates of clinical definitions of HIV-1 disease progression

Various patterns of HIV-1 disease progression are described in clinical practice and in research. There is a need to assess the specificity of commonly used definitions of long term non-progressor (LTNP) elite controllers (LTNP-EC), viremic controllers (LTNP-VC), and viremic non controllers (LTNP-NC), as well as of chronic progressors (P) and rapid progressors (RP).

Multiplex assays for biomarker research and clinical application: translational science coming of age

Over the last decade, translational science has come into the focus of academic medicine, and significant intellectual and financial efforts have been made to initiate a multitude of bench-to-bedside projects. The quest for suitable biomarkers that will significantly change clinical practice has become one of the biggest challenges in translational medicine. Quantitative measurement of proteins is a critical step in biomarker discovery. Assessing a large number of potential protein biomarkers in a statistically significant number of samples and controls still constitutes a major technical hurdle. Multiplexed analysis offers significant advantages regarding time, reagent cost, sample requirements and the amount of data that can be generated. The two contemporary approaches in multiplexed and quantitative biomarker validation, antibody-based immunoassays and MS-based multiple (or selected) reaction monitoring, are based on different assay principles and instrument requirements. Both approaches have their own advantages and disadvantages and therefore have complementary roles in the multi-staged biomarker verification and validation process. In this review, we discuss quantitative immunoassay and multiple reaction monitoring/selected reaction monitoring assay principles and development. We also discuss choosing an appropriate platform, judging the performance of assays, obtaining reliable, quantitative results for translational research and clinical applications in the biomarker field.

Sample size estimation: an overview with applications to orthodontic clinical trial designs

Proper sample size estimation is an important part of clinical trial methodology and closely related to the precision and power of the trial's results. Trials with sufficient sample sizes are scientifically and ethically justified and more credible compared with trials with insufficient sizes. Planning clinical trials with inadequate sample sizes might be considered as a waste of time and resources, as well as unethical, since patients might be enrolled in a study in which the expected results will not be trusted and are unlikely to have an impact on clinical practice. Because of the low emphasis of sample size calculation in clinical trials in orthodontics, it is the objective of this article to introduce the orthodontic clinician to the importance and the general principles of sample size calculations for randomized controlled trials to serve as guidance for study designs and as a tool for quality assessment when reviewing published clinical trials in our specialty. Examples of calculations are shown for 2-arm parallel trials applicable to orthodontics. The working examples are analyzed, and the implications of design or inherent complexities in each category are discussed.

Soft-Tissue Simulation for Cranio-Maxillofacial Surgery: Clinical Needs and Technical Aspects

Computerized soft-tissue simulation can provide unprecedented means for predicting facial outlook pre-operatively. Surgeons can virtually perform several surgical plans to have the best surgical results for their patients while considering corresponding soft-tissue outcome. It could be used as an interactive communication tool with their patients as well. There has been comprehensive amount of works for simulating soft-tissue for cranio-maxillofacial surgery. Although some of them have been realized as commercial products, none of them has been fully integrated into clinical practice due to the lack of accuracy and excessive amount of processing time. In this chapter, state-of-the-art and general workflow in facial soft-tissue simulation will be presented, along with an example of patient-specific facial soft-tissue simulation method.

Double-blinded, randomized controlled trial comparing real versus placebo acupuncture to improve tolerance of diagnostic esophagogastroduodenoscopy without sedation: a study protocol

Background Sedation prior to performance of diagnostic esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGDE) is widespread and increases patient comfort. But 98% of all serious adverse events during EGDEs are ascribed to sedation. The S3 guideline for sedation procedures in gastrointestinal endoscopy published in 2008 in Germany increases patient safety by standardization. These new regulations increase costs because of the need for more personnel and a prolonged discharge procedure after examinations with sedation. Many patients have difficulties to meet the discharge criteria regulated by the S3 guideline, e.g. the call for a second person to escort them home, to resign from driving and working for the rest of the day, resulting in a refusal of sedation. Therefore, we would like to examine if an acupuncture during elective, diagnostic EGDEs could increase the comfort of patients refusing systemic sedation. Methods/Design A single-center, double blinded, placebo controlled superiority trial to compare the success rates of elective, diagnostic EGDEs with real and placebo acupuncture. All patients aged 18 years or older scheduled for elective, diagnostic EGDE who refuse a systemic sedation are eligible. 354 patients will be randomized. The primary endpoint is the rate of successful EGDEs with the randomized technique. Intervention: Real or placebo acupuncture before and during EGDE. Duration of study: Approximately 24 months. Discussion Organisation/Responsibility The ACUPEND - Trial will be conducted in accordance with the protocol and in compliance with the moral, ethical, and scientific principles governing clinical research as set out in the Declaration of Helsinki (1989) and Good Clinical Practice (GCP). The Interdisciplinary Endoscopy Center (IEZ) of the University Hospital Heidelberg is responsible for design and conduct of the trial, including randomization and documentation of patients' data. Data management and statistical analysis will be performed by the independent Institute for Medical Biometry and Informatics (IMBI) and the Center of Clinical Trials (KSC) at the Department of General, Visceral and Transplantation Surgery, University of Heidelberg.

Exercise training in heart failure: from theory to practice. A consensus document of the Heart Failure Association and the European Association for Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation

The European Society of Cardiology heart failure guidelines firmly recommend regular physical activity and structured exercise training (ET), but this recommendation is still poorly implemented in daily clinical practice outside specialized centres and in the real world of heart failure clinics. In reality, exercise intolerance can be successfully tackled by applying ET. We need to encourage the mindset that breathlessness may be evidence of signalling between the periphery and central haemodynamic performance and regular physical activity may ultimately bring about favourable changes in myocardial function, symptoms, functional capacity, and increased hospitalization-free life span and probably survival. In this position paper, we provide practical advice for the application of exercise in heart failure and how to overcome traditional barriers, based on the current scientific and clinical knowledge supporting the beneficial effect of this intervention.

Uses and misuses of the STROBE statement: bibliographic study

Objectives Appropriate reporting is central to the application of findings from research to clinical practice. The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) recommendations consist of a checklist of 22 items that provide guidance on the reporting of cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies, in order to facilitate critical appraisal and interpretation of results. STROBE was published in October 2007 in several journals including The Lancet, BMJ, Annals of Internal Medicine and PLoS Medicine. Within the framework of the revision of the STROBE recommendations, the authors examined the context and circumstances in which the STROBE statement was used in the past. Design The authors searched the Web of Science database in August 2010 for articles which cited STROBE and examined a random sample of 100 articles using a standardised, piloted data extraction form. The use of STROBE in observational studies and systematic reviews (including meta-analyses) was classified as appropriate or inappropriate. The use of STROBE to guide the reporting of observational studies was considered appropriate. Inappropriate uses included the use of STROBE as a tool to assess the methodological quality of studies or as a guideline on how to design and conduct studies. Results The authors identified 640 articles that cited STROBE. In the random sample of 100 articles, about half were observational studies (32%) or systematic reviews (19%). Comments, editorials and letters accounted for 15%, methodological articles for 8%, and recommendations and narrative reviews for 26% of articles. Of the 32 observational studies, 26 (81%) made appropriate use of STROBE, and three uses (10%) were considered inappropriate. Among 19 systematic reviews, 10 (53%) used STROBE inappropriately as a tool to assess study quality. Conclusions The STROBE reporting recommendations are frequently used inappropriately in systematic reviews and meta-analyses as an instrument to assess the methodological quality of observational studies.

Clinical long-term outcome after implantation of titanium nitride-oxide coated stents compared with paclitaxel- or sirolimus-eluting stents: propensity-score matched analysis

We performed a propensity score matched analysis to explore whether TiNOX stents are superior to paclitaxel- (PES) and sirolimus-eluting stents (SES) in routine clinical practice.

Assessment of three frequently used blood glucose monitoring devices in clinical routine

Self-monitoring of blood glucose plays an important role in the management of diabetes and has been shown to improve metabolic control. The use of blood glucose meters in clinical practice requires sufficient reliability to allow adequate treatment. Direct comparison of different blood glucose meters in clinical practice, independent of the manufactures is scarce. We, therefore, aimed to evaluate three frequently used blood glucose meters in daily clinical practice.

Comparison of tendency-oriented perimetry and dynamic strategy in octopus perimetry as a screening tool in a clinical setting: a prospective study

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to compare the results of tendency-oriented perimetry (TOP) and a dynamic strategy in octopus perimetry as screening methods in clinical practice. DESIGN: A prospective single centre observational case series was performed. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: In a newly opened general ophthalmologic practice 89 consecutive patients (171 eyes) with a clinical indication for octopus static perimetry testing (ocular hypertension or suspicious optic nerve cupping) were examined prospectively with TOP and a dynamic strategy. The visual fields were graded by 3 masked observers as normal, borderline or abnormal without any further clinical information. RESULTS: 83% eyes showed the same result for both strategies. In 14% there was a small difference (with one visual field being abnormal or normal, the other being borderline). In only 2.9% of the eyes (5 cases) was there a contradictory result. In 4 out of 5 cases the dynamic visual field was abnormal and TOP was normal. 4 of these cases came back for a second examination. In all 4 the follow-up examination showed a normal second dynamic visual field. CONCLUSIONS: Octopus static perimetry using a TOP strategy is a fast, patient-friendly and very reliable screening tool for the general ophthalmological practice. We found no false-negative results in our series.