Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

Fear and anxiety at the basis of adolescent externalizing and internalizing behaviors: a case study.

Juvenile delinquency is rarely associated with success in psychotherapeutic treatment. Up until now, few data have been recorded regarding possible overlaps or common features of conduct disorders with anxiety disorders. This case report of a delinquent adolescent's presenting an obsessive-compulsive disorder discusses possible underlying common features of externalizing and internalizing disorders, mainly in terms of fear and anxiety regulation. The successful psychotherapy is discussed with regard to efficient psychological assessment and treatment of delinquent adolescents, and it underlies the importance of detailed analysis of psychopathology in cases of juvenile delinquency.

Comparing the artificial neural network with parcial least squares for prediction of soil organic carbon and pH at different moisture content levels using visible and near-infrared spectroscopy

Visible and near infrared (vis-NIR) spectroscopy is widely used to detect soil properties. The objective of this study is to evaluate the combined effect of moisture content (MC) and the modeling algorithm on prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC) and pH. Partial least squares (PLS) and the Artificial neural network (ANN) for modeling of SOC and pH at different MC levels were compared in terms of efficiency in prediction of regression. A total of 270 soil samples were used. Before spectral measurement, dry soil samples were weighed to determine the amount of water to be added by weight to achieve the specified gravimetric MC levels of 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 %. A fiber-optic vis-NIR spectrophotometer (350-2500 nm) was used to measure spectra of soil samples in the diffuse reflectance mode. Spectra preprocessing and PLS regression were carried using Unscrambler® software. Statistica® software was used for ANN modeling. The best prediction result for SOC was obtained using the ANN (RMSEP = 0.82 % and RPD = 4.23) for soil samples with 25 % MC. The best prediction results for pH were obtained with PLS for dry soil samples (RMSEP = 0.65 % and RPD = 1.68) and soil samples with 10 % MC (RMSEP = 0.61 % and RPD = 1.71). Whereas the ANN showed better performance for SOC prediction at all MC levels, PLS showed better predictive accuracy of pH at all MC levels except for 25 % MC. Therefore, based on the data set used in the current study, the ANN is recommended for the analyses of SOC at all MC levels, whereas PLS is recommended for the analysis of pH at MC levels below 20 %.

Executive Summary, Feasibility Report on Proposed Amtrak Service Quad Cities-Chicago, January 7, 2008

Since the introduction of expanded levels of intrastate service on October 30, 2006, Amtrak trains in Illinois have produced impressive gains in both ridership and ticket revenue. This success and continuing stakeholder support has given rise to a formal request from the Illinois Department of Transportation (“Ill. DOT”) to Amtrak to develop a feasibility study regarding possible service consisting of a morning and an evening train in each direction between Chicago and the Quad Cities. The area between Chicago and the Quad Cities includes many rapidly growing communities. From Chicago toward the West and South, many towns and cities have experienced double digit growth increases in population since the year 2000. Southern DuPage, Cook and Will counties have seen especially strong growth, pressuring highway infrastructure, utilities, and schools. Community development and highway congestion are readily apparent when traveling the nearly 3 hour, 175 mile route between Chicago and the Quad Cities. As information, there are only three weekday round trip bus frequencies available between Chicago and the Quad Cities. The Quad City International Airport offers a total of 10 daily scheduled round trip flights to Chicago's O'Hare International Airport via two separate carriers flying regional jets. The Quad Cities (Davenport, Moline, Rock Island, and Bettendorf) are located along the Mississippi River. Nearly 60% of its visitors are from the Chicago area. With dozens of miles of scenic riverfront, river boating, casinos, and thousands of acres of expansive public spaces, the Quad Cities area is a major draw from both Iowa and Illinois. The huge Rock Island Arsenal, one of the largest military arsenals in the country and located along the river, is transitioning to become the headquarters of the United States First Army. As will be discussed later in the report, there is only one logical rail route through the Quad Cities themselves. The Iowa Interstate Railroad operates through the Quad Cities along the river and heads west through Iowa. The Quad Cities are considering at least three potential locations for an Amtrak station. A study now underway supported by several local stakeholders will recommend a site which will then be considered, given available local and other financial support. If Amtrak service were to terminate in the Quad Cities, an overnight storage track of sufficient length along with ample parking and certain other requirements covered elsewhere in the report would be required.

Feasibility Study on Proposed Amtrak service from Chicago, to Iowa City, Iowa via Quad Cities, December 5, 2007

Soon after the Illinois Department of Transportation (“Ill. DOT”) requested Amtrak to conduct a feasibility study on proposed Amtrak service between Chicago and the Illinois Quad Cities, the Iowa Department of Transportation (“Iowa DOT”) asked that the study be extended to Iowa City and later to Des Moines. This report examines the feasibility of extending service to Iowa City. The completed report for the proposed Chicago – Quad Cities��� service was delivered to Ill. DOT in early January 2008. It assumes a stand-alone train operation strictly within the State of Illinois and makes no reference to extending the service into the State of Iowa. Therefore, there is no discussion about potential cost sharing allocations for capital improvements or operating losses between the two states which will become a matter of future negotiations between the two jurisdictions. That being said, this report on extending the service to Iowa City is simply an addendum to the Quad Cities report and covers such topics as additional capital infrastructure improvements that would be required in Iowa, impacts on operating expenses, revised ridership and revenue projections, and the like. With one minor exception, the recommended level of capital improvements within Illinois will still be required if the service to Iowa City is initiated. It is thus important for the readers of this report to refer to the Illinois study for detailed information on that state’s portion of the route alternatives.

Iowa Traffic Control Devices and Pavement Markings: A Manual for Cities and Counties April 2001

Iowa Traffic Control Devices and Pavement Markings: A Manual for Cities and Counties has been developed to provide state and local transportation agencies with suggestions and examples related to traffic control devices and pavement markings. Both rural and urban applications are included. The primary source of information for this document is the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD), but many additional references have also been used. A complete listing of these is included in the appendix to this manual, and the reader is invited to consult these references for more in-depth information. The contents of this manual are not intended to represent standard practice or to imply legal requirements for installation in any particular manner. This document should be used as a supplement to the MUTCD, not as a substitute for any requirements contained therein. Engineering judgement should be applied to all decisions regarding traffic control devices and pavement markings. All references to the MUTCD in this manual apply to the millennium edition. The reader should be aware that many millennium revisions are allowed phase-in periods by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), ranging from two to ten years. These extended compliance periods should be considered when making decisions regarding traffic control devices and pavement markings. A new addition to the MUTCD, Part 5, “Traffic Control Devices for Low-Volume Roads,” also contains valuable recommendations for signing and marking low volume roads. This manual is presented in an easy to use threering format. Topics included in the complete guide manual may not apply to all jurisdictions and can easily be removed or modified as desired. Desired millennium MUTCD sections may be added for quick reference using the divider at the end of this document. Contents may also be available on CD-ROM in the future.

10 ans de lutte contre la violence domestique dans le canton de Vaud: résumé de la recherche menée par l'Unité de Médecine des Violences (UMV) sur mandat de la Commission cantonale de lutte contre la violence domestique (CCLVD)

[Sommaire] Introduction. - 1. Quelques données de base: le contexte juridique, la violence domestique: une réalité chiffrée, principales institutions du réseau d'aide dans le canton de Vaud. - 2. Résumé de la recherche "10 ans de lutte contre la violence domestique dans le canton de Vaud": contexte, méthode, résultats, recommandations à l'intention de la CCLVD. - 3. Axes stratégiques de la politique cantonale de prévention de lutte contre la violence domestique 2011-2015. - Bibliographie [Introduction (extrait)] La violence entre membres d'une même famille ou entre proches, à savoir la violence domestique, a longtemps été considérée comme une affaire privée et un tabou. Un important changement de mentalité s'est toutefois opéré ces 20 dernières années. La lutte contre la violence envers les femmes d'une manière générale et contre la violence domestique en particulier préoccupe de plus en plus les organes internationaux, nationaux et locaux et est reconnue comme une tâche d'intérêt public. [...] Dans le canton de Vaud, en 1999, le Bureau de l'égalité entre les femmes et les hommes (BEFH) a mandaté l'Unité de Prévention de l'Institut de médecine sociale et préventive du CHUV, afin de mener une étude sur la violence conjugale, auprès des institutions concernées2. Cette recherche visait à établir un état des lieux et à identifier les besoins prioritaires. En 2001, des recommandations ont émergé de cette étude sous la forme de 40 mesures. Six d'entre elles ont été retenues comme prioritaires par la Conseillère d'Etat Madame Jacqueline Maurer Mayor. Presque 10 ans après, en automne 2008, la Commission cantonale de lutte contre la violence domestique (CCLVD), instituée par le Conseil d'Etat afin de coordonner les efforts en vue de la prévention et de la lutte contre la violence domestique, a décidé de faire un bilan sur la réalisation de ces mesures, d'identifier les besoins actuels des professionnel-le-s de terrain et les problématiques émergeantes. Les résultats de cette étude, menée par L'Unité d médecine des violences (UMV) ont servi de fondement à la CCLVD dans l'établissement d'un plan stratégique 2011-2015, en matière de lutte contre la violence conjugale dans le canton de Vaud. Le présent document présente à la fois un éclairage contextuel sur la situation dans le canton de Vaud aujourd'hui et une synthèse de la recherche précitée.

Interstate 74 Quad Cities Corridor Study Scott County, Iowa and Rock Island County, Illinois Project Number IM-74-1(122)0-13-82 FHWA-IOWA-EIS-09-01-F, February 2009

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and the Iowa and Illinois Departments of Transportation (Iowa DOT and IDOT) have identified the Selected Alternative for improving Interstate 74 (I-74) from its southern terminus at Avenue of the Cities (23rd Avenue) in Moline, Illinois to its northern terminus one mile north of the I-74 interchange with 53rd Street in Davenport, Iowa. The Selected Alternative identified and discussed in this Record of Decision is the preferred alternative identified in the Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS). The purpose of the proposed improvements is to improve capacity, travel reliability, and safety along I-74 between its termini, and provide consistency with local land use planning goals. The need for the proposed improvements to the I-74 corridor is based on a combination of factors related to providing better transportation service and sustaining economic development.

Development of a Traffic Control Devices and Pavement Markings Manual for Iowa's Cities and Counties with a Survery of Common Practices, April 2001

Transportation agencies in Iowa are responsible for a significant public investment with the installation and maintenance of traffic control devices and pavement markings. Included in this investment are thousands of signs and other inventory items, equipment, facilities, and staff. The proper application of traffic control devices and pavement markings is critical to public safety on streets and highways, and local governments have a prescribed responsibility under the Code of Iowa to properly manage these assets. This research report addresses current traffic control and pavement marking application, maintenance, and management in Iowa.

Linear least squares estimation of the first order moving average parameter

We propose an iterative procedure to minimize the sum of squares function which avoids the nonlinear nature of estimating the first order moving average parameter and provides a closed form of the estimator. The asymptotic properties of the method are discussed and the consistency of the linear least squares estimator is proved for the invertible case. We perform various Monte Carlo experiments in order to compare the sample properties of the linear least squares estimator with its nonlinear counterpart for the conditional and unconditional cases. Some examples are also discussed

New Violence Risk Assessment Aids Parole and Offender Programming Decisions, Data Download, Department of Corrections

In recent years, the Department of Corrections has made major strides in assessing offenders’ risk to reoffend, particularly in measuring changes in that risk over time. Earlier this year, the DOC worked with the Board of Parole to develop a risk assessment that focuses on assessing offenders’ risk to commit violent crimes.