Multivariate methods for correlated effects sizes

Current statistical methods for estimation of parametric effect sizes from a series of experiments are generally restricted to univariate comparisons of standardized mean differences between two treatments. Multivariate methods are presented for the case in which effect size is a vector of standardized multivariate mean differences and the number of treatment groups is two or more. The proposed methods employ a vector of independent sample means for each response variable that leads to a covariance structure which depends only on correlations among the $p$ responses on each subject. Using weighted least squares theory and the assumption that the observations are from normally distributed populations, multivariate hypotheses analogous to common hypotheses used for testing effect sizes were formulated and tested for treatment effects which are correlated through a common control group, through multiple response variables observed on each subject, or both conditions.^ The asymptotic multivariate distribution for correlated effect sizes is obtained by extending univariate methods for estimating effect sizes which are correlated through common control groups. The joint distribution of vectors of effect sizes (from $p$ responses on each subject) from one treatment and one control group and from several treatment groups sharing a common control group are derived. Methods are given for estimation of linear combinations of effect sizes when certain homogeneity conditions are met, and for estimation of vectors of effect sizes and confidence intervals from $p$ responses on each subject. Computational illustrations are provided using data from studies of effects of electric field exposure on small laboratory animals. ^

Association between cerebral oxygen metabolic rate and the incidence of nosocomial pneumonia in head injury patients

The development of nosocomial pneumonia was monitored in 96 head-trauma patients requiring mechanical ventilation for up to 10 days. Pneumonia occurred in 28 patients (29.2%) or 53.9 cases per 1,000 admission days. The incidence of nosocomial pneumonia was negatively correlated with cerebral oxygen metabolic rate (CMRO$\sb2$) measured during the first five days. The relative risk of nosocomial pneumonia for patients with CMRO$\sb2$ less than 0.6 umol/gm/min is 2.08 (1.09$-$3.98) times those patients with CMRO$\sb2$ greater than 0.6 umol/gm/min. The association between cerebral oxygen metabolic rate and nosocomial pneumonia was not affected by adjustment of potential confounding factors including age, cimetidine and other infections. These findings provide evidences underlying the CNS-immune system interaction. ^

Bayesian inference and its application to meta-analysis of epidemiologic data

In Part One, the foundations of Bayesian inference are reviewed, and the technicalities of the Bayesian method are illustrated. Part Two applies the Bayesian meta-analysis program, the Confidence Profile Method (CPM), to clinical trial data and evaluates the merits of using Bayesian meta-analysis for overviews of clinical trials.^ The Bayesian method of meta-analysis produced similar results to the classical results because of the large sample size, along with the input of a non-preferential prior probability distribution. These results were anticipated through explanations in Part One of the mechanics of the Bayesian approach. ^

Mitral valve prolapse and its relationship with stroke

The purpose of this study was to elucidate the relationship between mitral valve prolapse and stroke. A population-based historical cohort investigation was conducted among residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota who had an initial echocardiographic diagnosis of mitral valve prolapse from 1975 through 1989. This cohort (N = 1085) was followed for stroke outcomes using the resources of an operational medical record linkage system. There was an overall two-fold increase in the incidence of stroke among individuals with mitral valve prolapse relative to a standard population (standardized morbidity ratio = 2.12, 95% confidence limits = 1.33-3.21). When the data were partitioned by duration of follow-up from the diagnosis of mitral valve prolapse, or by the calendar years at echocardiographic diagnosis, respectively, the association between mitral valve prolapse and stroke was not modified. Mitral valve prolapse subjects 85 years and older were at highest increased risk of developing strokes relative to the general population (standardized morbidity ratio = 5.47, 95% confidence limits = 2.20-11.24). Coronary heart disease, atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus and hypertension, were unlikely to have confounded the association between mitral valve prolapse and stroke.^ The cumulative risk of first stroke among individuals initially diagnosed with mitral valve prolapse age 15 to 64 years, given survival to 15.2 years of follow-up, was 4.0%. The cumulative risk of first stroke among individuals initially diagnosed with mitral valve prolapse age 65 to 74 years, given survival to 11.2 years of follow-up, was 13.2%. The cumulative risk of first stroke among individuals initially diagnosed with mitral valve prolapse age 75 years and older, given survival to 6.7 years of follow-up, was 30.6%.^ Among individuals with mitral valve prolapse, age, diabetes, and atrial fibrillation were associated with an increased risk of stroke. Atrial fibrillation was associated with a four-fold rate of stroke and diabetes associated with a seven-fold rate of stroke.^ Findings from this research support the hypothesis that mitral valvular heart prolapse is linked with a stroke sequela. ^

The effect of life events on blood pressure and body mass index in children

In Conroe, Texas, 492 students ages 5 to 15 participated in a screening examination for cardiovascular risk factor study. Among 492 students, 141 elementary and junior high students participated in the present sub-study to investigate the effect of the number of recent life events on blood pressure and on body mass index. Using the elementary and junior high school Coddington scales, life events occurring in the past 12 months were measured for students ages 9 to 14 years, no significant differences in life events were observed by age and sex. The number of life events was not related to blood pressure but was positively correlated to body mass index in children and adolescents. ^

Modeling the survival of T-cell lymphocytes using compound branching processes

Radiotherapy has been a method of choice in cancer treatment for a number of years. Mathematical modeling is an important tool in studying the survival behavior of any cell as well as its radiosensitivity. One particular cell under investigation is the normal T-cell, the radiosensitivity of which may be indicative to the patient's tolerance to radiation doses.^ The model derived is a compound branching process with a random initial population of T-cells that is assumed to have compound distribution. T-cells in any generation are assumed to double or die at random lengths of time. This population is assumed to undergo a random number of generations within a period of time. The model is then used to obtain an estimate for the survival probability of T-cells for the data under investigation. This estimate is derived iteratively by applying the likelihood principle. Further assessment of the validity of the model is performed by simulating a number of subjects under this model.^ This study shows that there is a great deal of variation in T-cells survival from one individual to another. These variations can be observed under normal conditions as well as under radiotherapy. The findings are in agreement with a recent study and show that genetic diversity plays a role in determining the survival of T-cells. ^

Maximal exercise hemodynamics and risk of mortality in apparently healthy men and women

The use of exercise electrocardiography (ECG) to detect latent coronary heart disease (CHD) is discouraged in apparently healthy populations because of low sensitivity. These recommendations however, are based on the efficacy of evaluation of ischemia (ST segment changes) with little regard for other measures of cardiac function that are available during exertion. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the association of maximal exercise hemodynamic responses with risk of mortality due to all-causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and coronary heart disease (CHD) in apparently healthy individuals. Study participants were 20,387 men (mean age = 42.2 years) and 6,234 women (mean age = 41.9 years) patients of a preventive medicine center in Dallas, TX examined between 1971 and 1989. During an average of 8.1 years of follow-up, there were 348 deaths in men and 66 deaths in women. In men, age-adjusted all-cause death rates (per 10,000 person years) across quartiles of maximal systolic blood pressure (SBP) (low to high) were: 18.2, 16.2, 23.8, and 24.6 (p for trend $<$0.001). Corresponding rates for maximal heart rate were: 28.9, 15.9, 18.4, and 15.1 (p trend $<$0.001). After adjustment for confounding variables including age, resting systolic pressure, serum cholesterol and glucose, body mass index, smoking status, physical fitness and family history of CVD, risks (and 95% confidence interval (CI)) of all-cause mortality for quartiles of maximal SBP, relative to the lowest quartile, were: 0.96 (0.70-1.33), 1.36 (1.01-1.85), and 1.37 (0.98-1.92) for quartiles 2-4 respectively. Similar risks for maximal heart rate were: 0.61 (0.44-0.85), 0.69 (0.51-0.93), and 0.60 (0.41-0.87). No associations were noted between maximal exercise rate-pressure product mortality. Similar results were seen for risk of CVD and CHD death. In women, similar trends in age-adjusted all-cause and CVD death rates across maximal SBP and heart rate categories were observed. Sensitivity of the exercise test in predicting mortality was enhanced when ECG results were evaluated together with maximal exercise SBP or heart rate with a concomitant decrease in specificity. Positive predictive values were not improved. The efficacy of the exercise test in predicting mortality in apparently healthy men and women was not enhanced by using maximal exercise hemodynamic responses. These results suggest that an exaggerated systolic blood pressure or an attenuated heart rate response to maximal exercise are risk factors for mortality in apparently healthy individuals. ^

The use of the computerized and revised vital record in conducting etiologic studies on neural tube defects

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the adequacy of computerized vital records in Texas for conducting etiologic studies on neural tube defects (NTDs), using the revised and expanded National Centers for Health Statistics vital record forms introduced in Texas in 1989.^ Cases of NTDs (anencephaly and spina bifida) among Harris County (Houston) residents were identified from the computerized birth and death records for 1989-1991. The validity of the system was then measured against cases ascertained independently through medical records and death certificates. The computerized system performed poorly in its identification of NTDs, particularly for anencephaly, where the false positive rate was 80% with little or no improvement over the 3-year period. For both NTDs the sensitivity and predictive value positive of the tapes were somewhat higher for Hispanic than non-Hispanic mothers.^ Case control studies were conducted utilizing the tape set and the independently verified data set, using controls selected from the live birth tapes. Findings varied widely between the data sets. For example, the anencephaly odds ratio for Hispanic mothers (vs. non-Hispanic) was 1.91 (CI = 1.38-2.65) for the tape file, but 3.18 (CI = 1.81-5.58) for verified records. The odds ratio for diabetes was elevated for the tape set (OR = 3.33, CI = 1.67-6.66) but not for verified cases (OR = 1.09, CI = 0.24-4.96), among whom few mothers were diabetic. It was concluded that computerized tapes should not be solely relied on for NTD studies.^ Using the verified cases, Hispanic mother was associated with spina bifida, and Hispanic mother, teen mother, and previous pregnancy terminations were associated with anencephaly. Mother's birthplace, education, parity, and diabetes were not significant for either NTD.^ Stratified analyses revealed several notable examples of statistical interaction. For anencephaly, strong interaction was observed between Hispanic origin and trimester of first prenatal care.^ The prevalence was 3.8 per 10,000 live births for anencephaly and 2.0 for spina bifida (5.8 per 10,000 births for the combined categories). ^

Genetic epidemiology of gallbladder disease in Mexican Americans and cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase gene sequence variation

Among Mexican Americans, the second largest minority group in the United States, the prevalence of gallbladder disease is markedly elevated. Previous data from both genetic admixture and family studies indicate that there is a genetic component to the occurrence of gallbladder disease in Mexican Americans. However, prior to this thesis no formal genetic analysis of gallbladder disease had been carried out nor had any contributing genes been identified.^ The results of complex segregation analysis in a sample of 232 Mexican American pedigrees documented the existence of a major gene having two alleles with age- and gender-specific effects influencing the occurrence of gallbladder disease. The estimated frequency of the allele increasing susceptibility was 0.39. The lifetime probabilities that an individual will be affected by gallbladder disease were 1.0, 0.54, and 0.00 for females of genotypes "AA", "Aa", and "aa", respectively, and 0.68, 0.30, and 0.00 for males, respectively. This analysis provided the first conclusive evidence for the existence of a common single gene having a large effect on the occurrence of gallbladder disease.^ Human cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase is the rate-limiting enzyme in bile acid synthesis. The results of an association study in both a random sample and a matched case/control sample showed that there is a significant association between cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase gene variation and the occurrence of gallbladder disease in Mexican Americans males but not in females. These data have implicated a specific gene, 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase, in the etiology of gallbladder disease in this population.^ Finally, I asked whether the inferred major gene from complex segregation analysis is genetically linked to the cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase gene. Three pedigrees predicted to be informative for linkage analysis by virtue of supporting the major gene hypothesis and having parents with informative genotypes and multiple offspring were selected for this linkage analysis. In each of these pedigrees, the recombination fractions maximized at 0 with a positive, albeit low, LOD score. The results of this linkage analysis provide preliminary and suggestive evidence that the cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase gene and the inferred gallbladder disease susceptibility gene are genetically linked. ^

Genetic epidemiologic methods in risk determination in Li-Fraumeni syndrome

Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) is characterized by a variety of neoplasms occurring at a young age with an apparent autosomal dominant transmission. Individuals in pedigrees with LFS have high incidence of second malignancies. Recently LFS has been found to be associated with germline mutations of a tumor-suppressor gene, p53. Because LFS is rare and indeed not a clear-cut disease, it is not known whether all cases of LFS are attributable to p53 germline mutations and how p53 plays in cancer occurrence in such cancer syndrome families. In the present study, DNAs from constitutive cells of two-hundred and thirty-three family members from ten extended pedigrees were screened for p53 mutations. Six out of the ten LFS families had germline mutations at the p53 locus, including point and deletion mutations. In these six families, 55 out of 146 members were carriers of p53 mutations. Except one, all mutations occurred in exons 5 to 8 (i.e., the "hot spot" region) of the p53 gene. The age-specific penetrance of cancer was estimated after the genotype for each family member at risk was determined. The penetrance was 0.15, 0.29, 0.35, 0.77, and 0.91 by 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 year-old, respectively, in male carriers; 0.19, 0.44, 0.76, and 0.90 by 20, 30, 40, and 50 year-old, respectively, in female carriers. These results indicated that one cannot escape from tumorigenesis if one inherits a p53 mutant allele; at least ninety percent of p53 carriers will develop cancer by the age of 60. To evaluate the possible bias due to the unexamined blood-relatives in LFS families, I performed a simulation analysis in which a p53 genotype was assigned to each unexamined person based on his cancer status and liability to cancer. The results showed that the penetrance estimates were not biased by the unexamined relatives. I also determined the sex, site, and age-specific penetrance of breast cancer in female carriers and lung cancer in male carriers. The penetrance of breast cancer in female carriers was 0.81 by age 45; the penetrance of lung cancer in male carriers was 0.78 by age 60, indicating that p53 play a key role for tumorigenesis in common cancers. ^

Genetic susceptibility, cigarette smoking, and wood dust exposure in lung cancer: Case control analyses

This case control study was conducted to assess the association between lung cancer risk, mutagen sensitivity (a marker of cancer susceptibility), and a putative lung carcinogen, wood dust exposure. There were 165 cases (98 African-Americans, 67 Mexican-Americans) with newly diagnosed, previously untreated lung cancer, and 239 controls, frequency-matched on age, sex, and ethnicity.^ Mutagen sensitivity ($\ge$1 break/cell) was associated with a statistically significant elevated risk for lung cancer (odds ratio (OR) = 4.1, 95% confidence limits (CL) = 2.3,7.2). Wood dust exposure was also a significant predictor of risk (OR = 2.8, 95% CL = 1.2,6.6) after controlling for smoking and mutagen sensitivity. When stratified by ethnicity, wood dust exposure was a significant risk factor for African-Americans (OR = 4.0, 95% CL = 1.4,11.5), but not for Mexican-Americans (OR = 1.5, 95% CL = 0.3,7.1). Stratified analysis suggested a greater than multiplicative interaction between wood dust exposure and both mutagen sensitivity and smoking.^ The cases had significantly more breaks on chromosomes 4 and 5 than the controls did with ORs of 4.9 (95% CL = 2.0, 11.7) and 3.9 (95% CL = 1.6, 9.3), respectively. Breaks at 4p14, 4q27, 4q31, 5q21-22, 5q31, and 5q33 were significantly more common in lung cancer patients than in controls. Lung cancer risk had a dose-response relationship with breaks on chromosomes 4 and 5. Cigarette smoking had a strong interaction with breaks on chromosomes 2, 4, and 5.^ In a molecular cytogenetic study, using chromosome painting and G-banding, we showed that: (1) the proportion of chromosome 5 abnormalities surviving as chromosome-type aberrations remained significantly higher in cells of lung cancer cases (14%) than in controls (5%) (P $<$ 0.001). However, no significant differences were detected in chromosome 4 abnormalities between cases and controls; (2) the proportion of chromosome 5q13-22 abnormalities was 5.3% in the cases and 0.7% in the controls (P $<$ 0.001). 5q13-22 regions represented 40% of all abnormalities on chromosome 5 in the cases and only 14% in the controls.^ This study suggests that mutagen sensitivity, wood dust exposure, and cigarette smoking were independent risk factors for lung cancer, and the susceptibility of particular chromosome loci to mutagenic damage may be a genetic marker for specific types of lung cancer. ^

Studies of the expression of DNA repair related genes

This dissertation examines the biological functions and the regulation of expression of DNA ligase I by studying its expression under different conditions.^ The gene expression of DNA ligase I was induced two- to four-fold in S-phase lymphoblastoid cells but was decreased to 15% of control after administration of a DNA damaging agent, 4-nitroquinoline-1-oxide. When cells were induced into differentiation, the expression level of DNA ligase I was decreased to less than 15% of that of the control cells. When the gene of DNA ligase I was examined for tissue specific expression in adult rats, high levels of DNA ligase I mRNA were observed in testis (8-fold), intermediate levels in ovary and brain (4-fold), and low levels were found in intestine, spleen, and liver (1- to 2-fold).^ In confluent cells of normal skin fibroblasts, UV irradiation induced the gene expression of DNA ligase I at 24 and 48 h. The induction of DNA ligase I gene expression requires active p53 protein. Introducing a vector containing the wild type p53 protein in the cells caused an induction of the DNA ligase I protein 24 h after the treatment.^ Our results indicate that, in addition to the regulation by phosphorylation/dephosphorylation, cellular DNA ligase I activity can be regulated at the gene transcription level, and the p53 tumor suppresser is one of the transcription factors for the DNA ligase I gene. Also, our results suggest that DNA ligase I is involved in DNA repair as well as in DNA replication.^ Also, as an early attempt to clone the human homolog of the yeast CDC9 gene which has been shown to be involved in DNA replication, DNA repair, and DNA recombination, we have identified a human gene with mRNA of 1.7 kb. This dissertation studies the gene regulation and the possible biological functions of this new human gene by examining its expression at different stages of the cell cycle, during cell differentiation, and in cellular response to DNA damage.^ The new gene that we recently identified from human cells is highly expressed in brain and reproductive organs (BRE). This BRE gene encodes an mRNA of 1.7-1.9 kb, with an open reading frame of 1,149 bp, and gives rise to a deduced polypeptide of 383 amino acid residues. No extensive homology was found between BRE and sequences from the EMBL-Gene Banks. BRE showed tissue-specific expression in adult rats. The steady state mRNA levels were high in testis (5-6 fold), ovary and brain (3-4 fold) compared to the spleen level, but low in intestine and liver (1-2 fold). The expression of this gene is responsive to DNA damage and/or retinoic acid (RA) treatment. Treatment of fibroblast cells with UV irradiation and 4-nitroquinoline-1-oxide caused more than 90% and 50% decreases in BRE mRNA, respectively. Similar decreases in BRE expression were observed after treatment of the brain glioma cell line U-251 and the promyelocytic cell line HL-60 with retinoic acid. (Abstract shortened by UMI). ^

Natural history of placebo treatment in adults acquiring travelers' diarrhea in Mexico

The natural history of placebo treated travelers' diarrhea and the prognostic factors of recovery from diarrhea were evaluated using 9 groups of placebo treated subjects from 9 clinical trial studies conducted since 1975, for use as a historical control in the future clinical trial of antidiarrheal agents. All of these studies were done by the same group of investigators in one site (Guadalajara, Mexico). The studies are similar in terms of population, measured parameters, microbiologic identification of enteropathogens and definitions of parameters. The studies had two different durations of followup. In some studies, subjects were followed for two days, and in some they were followed for five days.^ Using definitions established by the Infectious Diseases society of America and the Food and Drug Administration, the following efficacy parameters were evaluated: Time to last unformed stool (TLUS), number of unformed stools post-initiation of placebo treatment for five consecutive days of followup, microbiologic cure, and improvement of diarrhea. Among the groups that were followed for five days, the mean TLUS ranged from 59.1 to 83.5 hours. Fifty percent to 78% had diarrhea lasting more than 48 hours and 25% had diarrhea more than five days. The mean number of unformed stools passed on the first day post-initiation of therapy ranged from 3.6 to 5.8 and, for the fifth day ranged from 0.5 to 1.5. By the end of followup, diarrhea improved in 82.6% to 90% of the subjects. Subjects with enterotoxigenic E. coli had 21.6% to 90.0% microbiologic cure; and subjects with shigella species experienced 14.3% to 60.0% microbiologic cure.^ In evaluating the prognostic factors of recovery from diarrhea (primary efficacy parameter in evaluating the efficacy of antidiarrheal agents against travelers' diarrhea). The subjects from five studies were pooled and the Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the predictors of prolonged diarrhea. After adjusting for design characteristics of each trial, fever with a rate ratio (RR) of 0.40, presence of invasive pathogens with a RR of 0.41, presence of severe abdominal pain and cramps with a RR of 0.50, number of watery stools more than five with a RR of 0.60, and presence of non-invasive pathogens with a RR of 0.84 predicted a longer duration of diarrhea. Severe vomiting with a RR of 2.53 predicted a shorter duration of diarrhea. The number of soft stools, presence of fecal leukocytes, presence of nausea, and duration of diarrhea before enrollment were not associated with duration of diarrhea. ^

A Bayesian analysis for spatial processes with application to mapping

In geographical epidemiology, maps of disease rates and disease risk provide a spatial perspective for researching disease etiology. For rare diseases or when the population base is small, the rate and risk estimates may be unstable. Empirical Bayesian (EB) methods have been used to spatially smooth the estimates by permitting an area estimate to "borrow strength" from its neighbors. Such EB methods include the use of a Gamma model, of a James-Stein estimator, and of a conditional autoregressive (CAR) process. A fully Bayesian analysis of the CAR process is proposed. One advantage of this fully Bayesian analysis is that it can be implemented simply by using repeated sampling from the posterior densities. Use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique such as Gibbs sampler was not necessary. Direct resampling from the posterior densities provides exact small sample inferences instead of the approximate asymptotic analyses of maximum likelihood methods (Clayton & Kaldor, 1987). Further, the proposed CAR model provides for covariates to be included in the model. A simulation demonstrates the effect of sample size on the fully Bayesian analysis of the CAR process. The methods are applied to lip cancer data from Scotland, and the results are compared. ^

TRANSOVARIAL TRANSMISSION OF YELLOW FEVER VIRUS BY A SYLVATIC VECTOR, HAEMAGOGUS EQUINUS (THEOBALD)

The potential of a sylvatic vector to act as reservoir of yellow fever virus was assessed in Haemagogus equinus (Theobald). Mosquitoes from the Maje'75 laboratory colony and a Panamanian human isolated strain of yellow fever virus were used. Female mosquitoes infected with yellow fever virus had a minimum transovarial transmission rate of 1:5745. This is the first time transovarial transmission of yellow fever virus has been demonstrated in a New World sylvatic vector. Transovarial transmission of yellow fever virus in this sylvatic mosquito species may be an alternative mechanism for biological survival of the virus during adverse periods or in the absence of susceptible vertebrate hosts. ^