The combined effect of pravastatin and aspirin on clinical cardiovascular events

The 3-hydroxy-3methylglutaryl coenzyme A (HMG-CoA) reductase inhibitors, or statins, can achieve significant reductions in plasma low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol levels. Experimental and clinical evidence now shows that some statins interfere with formation of atherosclerotic lesions independent of their hypolipidemic properties. Vulnerable plaque rupture can result in thrombus formation and artery occlusion; this plaque deterioration is responsible for most acute coronary syndromes, including myocardial infarction (MI), unstable angina, and coronary death, as well as coronary heart diseaseequivalent non-hemorrhagic stroke. Inhibition of HMG-CoA reductase has potential pleiotropic effects other than lipid-lowering, as statins block mevalonic acid production, a precursor to cholesterol and numerous other metabolites. Statins' beneficial effects on clinical events may also thus involve nonlipid-related mechanisms that modify endothelial function, inflammatory responses, plaque stability, and thrombus formation. Aspirin, routinely prescribed to post-MI patients as adjunct therapy, may potentiate statins beneficial effects, as aspirin does not compete metabolically with statins but acts similarly on atherosclerotic lesions. Common functions of both medications include inhibition of platelet activity and aggregation, reduction in atherosclerotic plaque macrophage cell count, and prevention of atherosclerotic vessel endothelial dysfunction. The Cholesterol and Recurrent Events (CARE) trial provides an ideal population in which to examine the combined effects of pravastatin and aspirin. Lipid levels, intermediate outcomes, are examined by pravastatin and aspirin status, and differences between the two pravastatin groups are found. A modified Cox proportional-hazards model with aspirin as a time-dependent covariate was used to determine the effect of aspirin and pravastatin on the clinical cardiovascular composite endpoint of coronary heart disease death, recurrent MI or stroke. Among those assigned to pravastatin, use of aspirin reduced the composite primary endpoint by 35%; this result was similar by gender, race, and diabetic status. Older patients demonstrated a nonsignificant 21% reduction in the primary outcome, whereas the younger had a significant reduction of 43% in the composite primary outcome. Secondary outcomes examined include coronary artery bypass graft (38% reduction), nonsurgical bypass, peripheral vascular disease, and unstable angina. Pravastatin and aspirin in a post-MI population was found to be a beneficial combination that seems to work through lipid and nonlipid, anti-inflammatory mechanisms. ^

Outcomes associated with chemotherapy in elderly patients with early stage operable breast cancer

Background. Various clinical trials have proved the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy in women with breast cancer. Chemotherapy efficacy and guidelines for its use differ by stage of tumor and age of the patient with no clear recommendations for patients aged 70 and above. Objective. To examine the clinical and economic outcomes associated with chemotherapy use in and to examine the disparities in treatment and survival in elderly patients with early stage operable breast cancer by age and axillary node status. Methods. We studied a cohort of 23,110 node positive and 31,572 node negative women aged 65 and over diagnosed with incident American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage I, II or IIIa breast cancer between January 1, 1991 and December 31, 2002 using SEER-Medicare data. Total patient costs were estimated using the phase of care approach and adjusted cost estimates were obtained from regression analysis using a 3% discount rate. Cox proportional hazard ratio of mortality was used to determine the effectiveness of chemotherapy. Propensity score approach was also used to minimize the bias associated with receipt of chemotherapy. To assess disparity in treatment, multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the relative odds of receiving surgery, chemotherapy and radiation after BCS for African Americans compared to Whites. Results. Regression adjusted cost estimates for all node positive patients receiving chemotherapy was approximately $2,300 and was significantly higher (p<0.05) than for patients not receiving chemotherapy. Mortality was significantly lower in node positive and node negative women aged 65-74 years receiving chemotherapy. There was a significant difference between African American and White women in receiving BCS and radiation after BCS; however this difference was explained by patient demographics, tumor characteristics and socioeconomic status (SES). African American node positive women were 21% less likely to receive chemotherapy than White women (OR, 0.79; CI, 0.68-0.92) in multivariate analysis. Conclusion. Chemotherapy is associated with increased survival in patients aged 65-74 and total costs attributable to chemotherapy differ by phase and age of the patient. Underutilization of systemic adjuvant chemotherapy in African American women requires attention and may serve as potential areas for appropriate intervention.^

Comparison of Bayesian and frequentist approaches in clinical outcomes between hospitals

Many public health agencies and researchers are interested in comparing hospital outcomes, for example, morbidity, mortality, and hospitalization across areas and hospitals. However, since there is variation of rates in clinical trials among hospitals because of several biases, we are interested in controlling for the bias and assessing real differences in clinical practices. In this study, we compared the variations between hospitals in rates of severe Intraventricular Haemorrhage (IVH) infant using Frequentist statistical approach vs. Bayesian hierarchical model through simulation study. The template data set for simulation study was included the number of severe IVH infants of 24 intensive care units in Australian and New Zealand Neonatal Network from 1995 to 1997 in severe IVH rate in preterm babies. We evaluated the rates of severe IVH for 24 hospitals with two hierarchical models in Bayesian approach comparing their performances with the shrunken rates in Frequentist method. Gamma-Poisson (BGP) and Beta-Binomial (BBB) were introduced into Bayesian model and the shrunken estimator of Gamma-Poisson (FGP) hierarchical model using maximum likelihood method were calculated as Frequentist approach. To simulate data, the total number of infants in each hospital was kept and we analyzed the simulated data for both Bayesian and Frequentist models with two true parameters for severe IVH rate. One was the observed rate and the other was the expected severe IVH rate by adjusting for five predictors variables for the template data. The bias in the rate of severe IVH infant estimated by both models showed that Bayesian models gave less variable estimates than Frequentist model. We also discussed and compared the results from three models to examine the variation in rate of severe IVH by 20th centile rates and avoidable number of severe IVH cases. ^

Exploring the use of pharmaceutical patient assistance programs as an option to improve access to and affordability of prescription drugs

Background. Pharmaceutical-sponsored patient assistance programs (PAPs) are charity programs that provide free or reduced-priced medications to eligible patients. PAPs have the potential to improve prescription drug accessibility for patients but currently there is limited information about their use and effectiveness. ^ Objectives and methods. This dissertation described the use of PAPs in the U.S. through the conduct of two studies: (1) a systematic review of primary studies of PAPs from commercially-published and “grey” literature sources; and (2) a retrospective, cross-sectional study of cancer patients' use of PAPs at a tertiary care cancer outpatient center. ^ Results. (1) The systematic review identified 33 studies: 15 evaluated the impact of PAP enrollment assistance programs on patient healthcare outcomes; 7 assessed institutional costs of providing enrollment assistance; 7 surveyed stakeholders; 4 examined other aspects. Standardized mean differences calculated for disease indicator outcomes (most of which were single group, pre-posttest designs) showed significant decreases in glycemic and lipid control, and inconsistent results for blood pressure. Grey literature abstracts reported insufficient statistics for calculations. Study heterogeneity made weighted summary estimates inappropriate. Economic analyses indicated positive financial benefits to institutions providing enrollment assistance (cost) compared to the wholesale value of the medications provided (benefit); analyses did not value health outcomes. Mean quality of reporting scores were higher for observational studies in commercially-published articles versus full text, grey literature reports. (2) The cross-sectional study found that PAP outpatients were significantly more likely to be uninsured, indigent, and < 65 years old than non-PAP patients. Nearly all non-PAP and PAP prescriptions were for non-cancer conditions, either for co-morbidities (e.g., hypertension) or the management of treatment side effects (e.g., pain). Oral chemotherapies from PAPs were significantly more likely to be for breast versus other cancers, and be a newer, targeted versus traditional chemotherapy.^ Conclusions. In outpatient settings, PAP enrollment assistance plus additional medication services (e.g., counseling, reminders, and free samples) is associated with improved disease indicators for patients. Healthcare institutions, including cancer centers, can offset financial losses from uncompensated drug costs and recoup costs invested in enrollment assistance programs by procuring free PAP medications. Cancer patients who are indigent and uninsured may be able to access more outpatient medications for their supportive care needs through PAPs, than for cancer treatment options like oral chemotherapies. Because of the selective availability of drugs through PAPs, there may be more options for newer, oral, targeted chemotherapies for the treatment breast cancer versus other for other cancers.^

Relationship between parental feeding practices and weight status in a lower socioeconomic pre-school population

High prevalence of overweight and obesity among preschool children in the low income population is consistently documented in research with one of every seven low-income, preschool-aged children classified as obese. Parental feeding practices have the potential to be contributing factors to the obesity epidemic. However, the impact of parental feeding practices on obesity in preschool age children has not been well explored. The purpose of this study was to determine relationships between the parental feeding practices of using dessert, sweets or candy as a reward for finishing foods, restricting dessert if the child does not finish their plate at dinner, asking the child to consume everything on their plate at dinner, and having family dinners to obesity in low income, preschool age children.^ A cross-sectional secondary data analysis was completed using the STATA 11 statistical software. Descriptive statistics were completed to summarize demographic and BMI data of participants, as well as parental feeding behavior variables. Pearson’s correlation was implemented to determine a correlation between parental feeding behavior variables and BMI z scores. Predictive relationships between the variables were explored through multivariable linear regression analysis. Regression analyses were also completed factoring in the confounders of gender, age, and ethnicity.^ Results revealed (1) no significant correlations or predictive trends between the use of rewards, forced consumption, or family dinner and BMI in low income preschool age children, and (2) a significant negative correlation and predictive trend between restriction of desserts and BMI in low income preschool age children. Since the analysis supported the null hypothesis for the practices of reward use, forced consumption, and family dinner, these practices are not considered risk factors for obese level BMIs. The inverse association found for practice of restriction and BMI suggests it is unnecessary to discourage parents from using restriction. Limitations of the study included the sample size, reliability of the answers provided on the Healthy Home Survey by participant guardians, and generalizability of the sample to the larger population.^

Integrated pest management in multi-story public housing for the elderly in Houston, Texas

Integrated pest management is a viable alternative to traditional pest control methods. A paired sample design was utilized to measure the effect of IPM education on the number of cockroaches in a 200 unit, seven story public housing building for the elderly in Houston, TX. Glue traps were placed in 71 randomly selected apartments (5traps/unit) and left in place for two nights. Baseline cockroach counts were shared with the property manager, maintenance/janitorial staff, service coordinator, pest control professional and tenant representatives at the end of a one day “Integrated Pest Management in Multi-Family Housing” training course.^ There was a significant decrease in the average number of cockroaches after IPM education and implementation of IPM principles (P < 0.0003). Positive changes in behavior by members of the IPM team and changes in the housing authority operational plan were also found. Paired t-tests comparing the difference between mean cockroach counts at baseline and follow-up by location within the apartment all demonstrated a significant decrease in the number of cockroaches.^ Results supported the premise that IPM education and the implementation of IPM principles are effective measures to change pest control behaviors and control cockroaches. Cockroach infestations in multi-story housing are not solely determined by the actions of individual tenants. The actions of other residents, property managers and pest control professionals are also important factors in pest control.^ Findings support the implementation of IPM education and the adoption of IPM practices by public housing authorities. This study adds to existing evidence that clear communication of policies, a team approach and a commitment to ongoing inspection and monitoring of pests combined with corrective action to eliminate food, water and harborage and the judicial use of low risk pesticides have the potential to improve the living conditions of elderly residents living in public housing.^

Behavioral journalism newsletters to increase employee participation in a free worksite wellness center

Background. Providing an worksite fitness center for employees is an effective setting to increase an adult’s levels of physical activity, demonstrably reducing health care costs and elevating employee productivity. Increasing compliance and adherence among employees to consistently utilize an onsite facility remains a challenge.^ Purpose. To illustrate if two electronic behavioral journalism newsletters can increase employee participation in a free worksite wellness center.^ Design. A randomized control trial was implemented. ^ Setting. A large petroleum-producing corporation located in Houston, Texas Subjects.70 full or part time employees that had checked into visited the wellness center during September, October, and November 2009. ^ Intervention. Two behavioral journalism newsletters were created based on authentic community member role model interviews. Newsletters were distributed to intervention group participants via company email. Intervention and control group participant’s visits to the wellness center were monitored via a key card check in system at the facility for two weeks following the newsletter intervention.^ Analysis. Count variable statistics were used to identify rate differences between the intervention and control group wellness center visits. A binomial test for equality of proportions was used to identify differences between participants that had at least one visit to the wellness center compared with those with none.^ Results. Both intervention and control groups had a baseline of zero wellness center visits. The control group had a mean visit rate 0.441 and the intervention group had 0.857. A 0.416, almost one half more visits were found among the intervention group.^ Conclusion. This study indicates that behavioral journalism newsletters featuring a role model from within the worksite population can be a cost effective communication method to improve participation in an onsite wellness center. ^

Impact of real time polymerase chain reaction technology on the therapeutic approach to treatment of staphylococcal infections

Can the early identification of the species of staphylococcus responsible for infection by the use of Real Time PCR technology influence the approach to the treatment of these infections? ^ This study was a retrospective cohort study in which two groups of patients were compared. The first group, ‘Physician Aware’ consisted of patients in whom physicians were informed of specific staphylococcal species and antibiotic sensitivity (using RT-PCR) at the time of notification of the gram stain. The second group, ‘Physician Unaware’ consisted of patients in whom treating physicians received the same information 24–72 hours later as a result of blood culture and antibiotic sensitivity determination. ^ The approach to treatment was compared between ‘Physician Aware’ and ‘Physician Unaware’ groups for three different microbiological diagnoses—namely MRSA, MSSA and no-SA (or coagulase negative Staphylococcus). ^ For a diagnosis of MRSA, the mean time interval to the initiation of Vancomycin therapy was 1.08 hours in the ‘Physician Aware’ group as compared to 5.84 hours in the ‘Physician Unaware’ group (p=0.34). ^ For a diagnosis of MSSA, the mean time interval to the initiation of specific anti-MSSA therapy with Nafcillin was 5.18 hours in the ‘Physician Aware’ group as compared to 49.8 hours in the ‘Physician Unaware’ group (p=0.007). Also, for the same diagnosis, the mean duration of empiric therapy in the ‘Physician Aware’ group was 19.68 hours as compared to 80.75 hours in the ‘Physician Unaware’ group (p=0.003) ^ For a diagnosis of no-SA or coagulase negative staphylococcus, the mean duration of empiric therapy was 35.65 hours in the ‘Physician Aware’ group as compared to 44.38 hours in the ‘Physician Unaware’ group (p=0.07). However, when treatment was considered a categorical variable and after exclusion of all cases where anti-MRS therapy was used for unrelated conditions, only 20 of 72 cases in the ‘Physician Aware’ group received treatment as compared to 48 of 106 cases in the ‘Physician Unaware’ group. ^ Conclusions. Earlier diagnosis of MRSA may not alter final treatment outcomes. However, earlier identification may lead to the earlier institution of measures to limit the spread of infection. The early diagnosis of MSSA infection, does lead to treatment with specific antibiotic therapy at an earlier stage of treatment. Also, the duration of empiric therapy is greatly reduced by early diagnosis. The early diagnosis of coagulase negative staphylococcal infection leads to a lower rate of unnecessary treatment for these infections as they are commonly considered contaminants. ^

Genome-wide association study of LDL-cholesterol over ApoB ratio

Genome-Wide Association Study analytical (GWAS) methods were applied in a large biracial sample of individuals to investigate variation across the genome for its association with a surrogate low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particle size phenotype, the ratio of LDL-cholesterol level over ApoB level. Genotyping was performed on the Affymetrix 6.0 GeneChip with approximately one million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The ratio of LDL cholesterol to ApoB was calculated, and association tests used multivariable linear regression analysis with an additive genetic model after adjustment for the covariates sex, age and BMI. Association tests were performed separately in African Americans and Caucasians. There were 9,562 qualified individuals in the Caucasian group and 3,015 qualified individuals in the African American group. Overall, in Caucasians two statistically significant loci were identified as being associated with the ratio of LDL-cholesterol over ApoB: rs10488699 (p<5 x10-8, 11q23.3 near BUD13) and the SNP rs964184 (p<5 x10-8 11q23.3 near ZNF259). We also found rs12286037 ((p<4x10-7) (11q23.3) near APOA5/A4/C3/A1 with suggestive associate in the Caucasian sample. In exploratory analyses, a difference in the pattern of association between individuals taking and not taking LDL-cholesterol lowering medications was observed. Individuals who were not taking medications had smaller p-value than those taking medication. In the African-American group, there were no significant (p<5x10-8) or suggestive associations (p<4x10-7) with the ratio of LDL-cholesterol over ApoB after adjusting for age, BMI, and sex and comparing individuals with and without LDL-cholesterol lowering medication. Conclusions: There were significant and suggestive associations between SNP genotype and the ratio of LDL-cholesterol to ApoB in Caucasians, but these associations may be modified by medication treatment.^

Effect of parental weight status on the food packed in preschool children's lunches

Problem. Recent statistics show that over a fifth of children aged 2-5 years in 2006-2008 were overweight, with 7% above the 97 th percentile of the BMI-for-age growth charts (extreme obesity). Because poor diet is an important environmental determinant of obesity and the preschool years are crucial developmentally, examination of factors related to diet in the pre-school years is important for obesity prevention efforts. ^ Objective. The goals of this study were to determine the association between BMI of the parents and the number of servings of fruits, vegetables, and whole grains (FVWG) packed; the nutrient content of preschool children’s lunches; and norms and expectations about FVWG intake.^ Methods. This study was a cross sectional analysis of parents enrolled in the Lunch is in the Bag program at baseline. The independent measure was weight status of the parents/caregivers, which was determined using body mass index (BMI) calculated from self-reported height and weight. BMI was classified as healthy weight (BMI <25) or overweight/obese (BMI ≥25). Outcomes for the study included the number of servings of fruits, vegetables and whole grains (FVWG) in sack lunches, as well as the nutrient content of the lunches, and psychosocial constructs related to FVWG consumption. Linear regression analysis was conducted and adjusted for confounders to examine the associations of these outcomes with parental weight status, the main predictor. ^ Results. A total of 132 parent/child dyads were enrolled in the study; 59.09% (n=78) of the parents/caregivers were healthy weight and 39.01% (n=54) of the parents/caregivers were overweight/obese. Parents/caregivers in the study were predominantly white (68%, n=87) and had at least some college education (98%, n=128). No significant associations were found between the weight status of the parents and the servings of fruits, vegetables and whole grain packed in preschool children’s lunchboxes. The results were similar for the association of parental weight status and the nutrient contents of the packed lunches. Both healthy weight and overweight/obese parents packed less than the recommended amounts of vegetables (mean servings = 0.49 and 0.534, respectively) and whole grains (mean servings = 0.58 and 0.511, respectively). However, the intentions of the obese/overweight parents were higher compare to the healthy for vegetables and whole grains.^ Conclusion. Results from this study indicate that there are few differences in the servings of fruits, vegetables and whole grains packed by healthy weight parents/caregivers compared to overweight/obese parents/caregivers in a high income, well-educated population, although neither group met the recommended number of servings of vegetables or whole grains. Thus, results indicate the need for behaviorally-based health promotion programs for parents, regardless of their weight status; however, this study should be replicated with larger and more diverse populations to determine if these results are similar with less homogenous populations.^

Secondary data analysis of lead screening compliance in high-risk children

Introduction. Despite the ban of lead-containing gasoline and paint, childhood lead poisoning remains a public health issue. Furthermore, a Medicaid-eligible child is 8 times more likely to have an elevated blood lead level (EBLL) than a non-Medicaid child, which is the primary reason for the early detection lead screening mandate for ages 12 and 24 months among the Medicaid population. Based on field observations, there was evidence that suggested a screening compliance issue. Objective. The purpose of this study was to analyze blood lead screening compliance in previously lead poisoned Medicaid children and test for an association between timely lead screening and timely childhood immunizations. The mean months between follow-up tests were also examined for a significant difference between the non-compliant and compliant lead screened children. Methods. Access to the surveillance data of all childhood lead poisoned cases in Bexar County was granted by the San Antonio Metropolitan Health District. A database was constructed and analyzed using descriptive statistics, logistic regression methods and non-parametric tests. Lead screening at 12 months of age was analyzed separately from lead screening at 24 months. The small portion of the population who were also related were included in one analysis and removed from a second analysis to check for significance. Gender, ethnicity, age of home, and having a sibling with an EBLL were ruled out as confounders for the association tests but ethnicity and age of home were adjusted in the nonparametric tests. Results. There was a strong significant association between lead screening compliance at 12 months and childhood immunization compliance, with or without including related children (p<0.00). However, there was no significant association between the two variables at the age of 24 months. Furthermore, there was no significant difference between the median of the mean months of follow-up blood tests among the non-compliant and compliant lead screened population for at the 12 month screening group but there was a significant difference at the 24 month screening group (p<0.01). Discussion. Descriptive statistics showed that 61% and 56% of the previously lead poisoned Medicaid population did not receive their 12 and 24 month mandated lead screening on time, respectively. This suggests that their elevated blood lead level may have been diagnosed earlier in their childhood. Furthermore, a child who is compliant with their lead screening at 12 months of age is 2.36 times more likely to also receive their childhood immunizations on time compared to a child who was not compliant with their 12 month screening. Even though there was no statistical significant association found for the 24 month group, the public health significance of a screening compliance issue is no less important. The Texas Medicaid program needs to enforce lead screening compliance because it is evident that there has been no monitoring system in place. Further recommendations include a need for an increased focus on parental education and the importance of taking their children for wellness exams on time.^

Public service use by residents of Jackson Hinds Gardens before and after enrollment

Homelessness is associated with high use of public services such as health care and criminal justice services. Intervention designs to reverse homelessness have broadly fallen into two categories: either standard care which employs requisitely addressing the causes of homelessness, or housing first, which emphasizes provision of permanent housing without requisitely addressing the causes of homelessness. Multiple cities have recently commenced housing first interventions. Locally, Houston’s first housing first development is the Jackson Hinds Gardens project. The purpose of this study is to analyze the public service use of residents of housing first in Houston. Residents of Jackson Hinds Gardens who have been enrolled for at least 6 months were evaluated for public service use for an equal amount of time preceding and during their residence at Jackson Hinds. Resident interactions with county health services and criminal justice entities were determined by electronic database searches; these data were supplemented by life experience interview data. Service usage values pre- and post-enrollment at Jackson Hinds Gardens were compared by paired t-test analyses. We found that ER and inpatient usage decreased following enrollment in Jackson Hinds, although these reductions were not significant. In contrast, outpatient care and number of medications significantly increased following enrollment. These analyses inform on the effects of housing first in another major city, as well as informing the ethical considerations regarding housing first versus standard care. ^

Genetic epidemiology of childhood brain tumors

A rare familial cancer syndrome involving childhood brain tumors (CBT), breast cancer, sarcomas and an array of other tumors has been described (Li and Fraumeni 1969, 1975, 1982, 1987). A survey of CBT identified through the Connnecticut Tumor Registry in 1984 revealed a high frequency of CBT, leukemia and other childhood cancer in siblings of CBT patients (Farwell and Flannery, 1984). Other syndromes such as neurofibromatosis and nevoid basal cell carcinoma syndrome have also been associated with CBT; however, no systematic family studies have been conducted to determine the extent to which cancer aggregates in family members of CBT patients. This family study was designed to determine the frequency of cancer aggregation overall or at specific sites, to determine the frequency of known or potentially hereditary syndromes in families of CBT patients, and to determine a genetic model to characterize familial cancer syndromes and to identify specific kindreds to which such a model(s) might apply. This study includes 244 confirmed CBT patients referred to the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center between the years 1944 and 1983, diagnosed under the age of 15 years and resident in the U.S. or Canada. Family histories were obtained on the proband's first (parents, siblings and offspring) and second degree (proband's aunts, uncles and grandparents) relatives following sequential sampling scheme rules. To determine if cancer aggregates in families, we compared the cancer experience in the population to that expected in the general population using Connecticut Tumor Registry calendar year, age, race and sex-specific rates. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for cancer overall was 0.91 (41 observed (O) and 44.94 expected (E); 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.65-1.24). We observed a significant excess of colon cancer among the proband's first degree relatives (O/E = 5/1.64; 95% CI = 1.01-7.65), in particular those under age 45 year. Segregation analysis showed evidence for multifactorial inheritance in the small percentage (N = 5) of the families. ^

A multiplicative model for standardizing vital rates without using external standards

Standardization is a common method for adjusting confounding factors when comparing two or more exposure category to assess excess risk. Arbitrary choice of standard population in standardization introduces selection bias due to healthy worker effect. Small sample in specific groups also poses problems in estimating relative risk and the statistical significance is problematic. As an alternative, statistical models were proposed to overcome such limitations and find adjusted rates. In this dissertation, a multiplicative model is considered to address the issues related to standardized index namely: Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) and Comparative Mortality Factor (CMF). The model provides an alternative to conventional standardized technique. Maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of the model are used to construct an index similar to the SMR for estimating relative risk of exposure groups under comparison. Parametric Bootstrap resampling method is used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model, behavior of estimated parameters and variability in relative risk on generated sample. The model provides an alternative to both direct and indirect standardization method. ^

A comparison of techniques for forecasting utilization of Veterans Affairs hospitals

This study demonstrated that accurate, short-term forecasts of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital utilization can be made using the Patient Treatment File (PTF), the inpatient discharge database of the VA. Accurate, short-term forecasts of two years or less can reduce required inventory levels, improve allocation of resources, and are essential for better financial management. These are all necessary achievements in an era of cost-containment.^ Six years of non-psychiatric discharge records were extracted from the PTF and used to calculate four indicators of VA hospital utilization: average length of stay, discharge rate, multi-stay rate (a measure of readmissions) and days of care provided. National and regional levels of these indicators were described and compared for fiscal year 1984 (FY84) to FY89 inclusive.^ Using the observed levels of utilization for the 48 months between FY84 and FY87, five techniques were used to forecast monthly levels of utilization for FY88 and FY89. Forecasts were compared to the observed levels of utilization for these years. Monthly forecasts were also produced for FY90 and FY91.^ Forecasts for days of care provided were not produced. Current inpatients with very long lengths of stay contribute a substantial amount of this indicator and it cannot be accurately calculated.^ During the six year period between FY84 and FY89, average length of stay declined substantially, nationally and regionally. The discharge rate was relatively stable, while the multi-stay rate increased slightly during this period. FY90 and FY91 forecasts show a continued decline in the average length of stay, while the discharge rate is forecast to decline slightly and the multi-stay rate is forecast to increase very slightly.^ Over a 24 month ahead period, all three indicators were forecast within a 10 percent average monthly error. The 12-month ahead forecast errors were slightly lower. Average length of stay was less easily forecast, while the multi-stay rate was the easiest indicator to forecast.^ No single technique performed significantly better as determined by the Mean Absolute Percent Error, a standard measure of error. However, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models performed well overall and are recommended for short-term forecasting of VA hospital utilization. ^