Modelos lineares generalizados bayesianos para dados longitudinais

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Phylogeny and cryptic diversity in geckos (Phyllopezus; Phyllodactylidae; Gekkota) from South America's open biomes

The gecko genus Phyllopezus occurs across South America's open biomes: Cerrado, Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTF, including Caatinga), and Chaco. We generated a multi-gene dataset and estimated phylogenetic relationships among described Phyllopezus taxa and related species. We included exemplars from both described Phyllopezus pollicaris subspecies, P. p. pollicaris and P. p. przewalskii. Phylogenies from the concatenated data as well as species trees constructed from individual gene trees were largely congruent. All phylogeny reconstruction methods showed Bogertia lutzae as the sister species of Phyllopezus maranjonensis, rendering Phyllopezus paraphyletic. We synonymized the monotypic genus Bogertia with Phyllopezus to maintain a taxonomy that is isomorphic with phylogenetic history. We recovered multiple, deeply divergent, cryptic lineages within P. pollicaris. These cryptic lineages possessed mtDNA distances equivalent to distances among other gekkotan sister taxa. Described P. pollicaris subspecies are not reciprocally monophyletic and current subspecific taxonomy does not accurately reflect evolutionary relationships among cryptic lineages. We highlight the conservation significance of these results in light of the ongoing habitat loss in South America's open biomes. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Study of using marker assisted selection on a beef cattle breeding program by model comparison

A data set of a commercial Nellore beef cattle selection program was used to compare breeding models that assumed or not markers effects to estimate the breeding values, when a reduced number of animals have phenotypic, genotypic and pedigree information available. This herd complete data set was composed of 83,404 animals measured for weaning weight (WW), post-weaning gain (PWG), scrotal circumference (SC) and muscle score (MS), corresponding to 116,652 animals in the relationship matrix. Single trait analyses were performed by MTDFREML software to estimate fixed and random effects solutions using this complete data. The additive effects estimated were assumed as the reference breeding values for those animals. The individual observed phenotype of each trait was adjusted for fixed and random effects solutions, except for direct additive effects. The adjusted phenotype composed of the additive and residual parts of observed phenotype was used as dependent variable for models' comparison. Among all measured animals of this herd, only 3160 animals were genotyped for 106 SNP markers. Three models were compared in terms of changes on animals' rank, global fit and predictive ability. Model 1 included only polygenic effects, model 2 included only markers effects and model 3 included both polygenic and markers effects. Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods performed by TM software was used to analyze the data for model comparison. Two different priors were adopted for markers effects in models 2 and 3, the first prior assumed was a uniform distribution (U) and, as a second prior, was assumed that markers effects were distributed as normal (N). Higher rank correlation coefficients were observed for models 3_U and 3_N, indicating a greater similarity of these models animals' rank and the rank based on the reference breeding values. Model 3_N presented a better global fit, as demonstrated by its low DIC. The best models in terms of predictive ability were models 1 and 3_N. Differences due prior assumed to markers effects in models 2 and 3 could be attributed to the better ability of normal prior in handle with collinear effects. The models 2_U and 2_N presented the worst performance, indicating that this small set of markers should not be used to genetically evaluate animals with no data, since its predictive ability is restricted. In conclusion, model 3_N presented a slight superiority when a reduce number of animals have phenotypic, genotypic and pedigree information. It could be attributed to the variation retained by markers and polygenic effects assumed together and the normal prior assumed to markers effects, that deals better with the collinearity between markers. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Weibull and generalised exponential overdispersion models with an application to ozone air pollution

We consider the problem of estimating the mean and variance of the time between occurrences of an event of interest (inter-occurrences times) where some forms of dependence between two consecutive time intervals are allowed. Two basic density functions are taken into account. They are the Weibull and the generalised exponential density functions. In order to capture the dependence between two consecutive inter-occurrences times, we assume that either the shape and/or the scale parameters of the two density functions are given by auto-regressive models. The expressions for the mean and variance of the inter-occurrences times are presented. The models are applied to the ozone data from two regions of Mexico City. The estimation of the parameters is performed using a Bayesian point of view via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

From Amazonia to the Atlantic forest: Molecular phylogeny of Phyzelaphryninae frogs reveals unexpected diversity and a striking biogeographic pattern emphasizing conservation challenges

Documenting the Neotropical amphibian diversity has become a major challenge facing the threat of global climate change and the pace of environmental alteration. Recent molecular phylogenetic studies have revealed that the actual number of species in South American tropical forests is largely underestimated, but also that many lineages are millions of years old. The genera Phyzelaphryne (1 sp.) and Adelophryne (6 spp.), which compose the subfamily Phyzelaphryninae, include poorly documented, secretive, and minute frogs with an unusual distribution pattern that encompasses the biotic disjunction between Amazonia and the Atlantic forest. We generated >5.8 kb sequence data from six markers for all seven nominal species of the subfamily as well as for newly discovered populations in order to (1) test the monophyly of Phyzelaphryninae, Adelophryne and Phyzelaphryne, (2) estimate species diversity within the subfamily, and (3) investigate their historical biogeography and diversification. Phylogenetic reconstruction confirmed the monophyly of each group and revealed deep subdivisions within Adelophryne and Phyzelaphryne, with three major clades in Adelophryne located in northern Amazonia, northern Atlantic forest and southern Atlantic forest. Our results suggest that the actual number of species in Phyzelaphryninae is, at least, twice the currently recognized species diversity, with almost every geographically isolated population representing an anciently divergent candidate species. Such results highlight the challenges for conservation, especially in the northern Atlantic forest where it is still degraded at a fast pace. Molecular dating revealed that Phyzelaphryninae originated in Amazonia and dispersed during early Miocene to the Atlantic forest. The two Atlantic forest clades of Adelophryne started to diversify some 7 Ma minimum, while the northern Amazonian Adelophryne diversified much earlier, some 13 Ma minimum. This striking biogeographic pattern coincides with major events that have shaped the face of the South American continent, as we know it today. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular phylogeny, morphology and their implications for the taxonomy of Eriocaulaceae

The pantropical family Eriocaulaceae includes ten genera and c. 1,400 species, with diversity concentrated in the New World. The last complete revision of the family was published more than 100 years ago, and until recently the generic and infrageneric relationships were poorly resolved. However, a multi-disciplinary approach over the last 30 years, using morphological and anatomical characters, has been supplemented with additional data from palynology, chemistry, embryology, population genetics, cytology and, more recently, molecular phylogenetic studies. This led to a reassessment of phylogenetic relationships within the family. In this paper we present new data for the ITS and trnL-F regions, analysed separately and in combination, using maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference. The data confirm previous results, and show that many characters traditionally used for differentiating and circumscribing the genera within the family are homoplasious. A new generic key with characters from various sources and reflecting the current taxonomic changes is presented.

Cryptic species in the cosmopolitan Bugulan eritina complex (Bryozoa,Cheilostomata)

Previous analyses of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) and γ-proteobacterial endosymbiont diversity have suggested that the marine bryozoan Bugula neritina is a complex of three cryptic species, namely Types S, D and N. Types D and N were previously reported to have restricted distributions along California (western USA) and Delaware and Connecticut (eastern USA), respectively, whereas Type S is considered widespread in tropical, subtropical and temperate regions due to anthropogenic transport. Here, Bayesian species delimitation analysis of a data set composed of two mitochondrial (COI and large ribosomal RNA subunit [16S]) and two nuclear genes (dynein light chain roadblock type-2 protein [DYN] and voltage-dependent anion-selective channel protein [VDAC]) demonstrated that Types S, D and N correspond to three biological species. This finding was significantly supported, in spite of the combinations of priors applied for ancestral population size and root age. Furthermore, COI sequences were used to assess the introduction patterns of the cosmopolitan Type S species. Two COI haplotypes of Type S (S1a and S1d) were found occurring at a global scale. Mantel tests showed correlation between these haplotypes and local sea surface temperature tolerance. Accordingly, the distributions of Type S haplotypes may reflect intraspecific temperature tolerance variation, in addition to the role of introduction vectors. Finally, we show that the Type N may also have been introduced widely, as this species was found for the first time in Central California and north-eastern Australia.

Sphärische Blockcopolymer Mizellen in Homopolymerschmelze als weiche Modellkolloide

Zusammenfassung: Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde die Dynamik in Blockcopolymer-Homopolymerblends mit sphärischen Mikrophasen untersucht.Anhand eines PI-PS-Blockcopolymers in drei verschiedenen PI-Homopolymeren wurde der Einfluss des Molekulargewichts des Homopolymers betrachtet. Die Ergebnisse aus Forcierter Rayleigh Streuung (Diffusion) und Rheologie (Relaxation) zeigen, dass sich die PS-PI-Mizellen in allen drei Homopolymeren kolloid-ähnlich verhalten. Die Analyse nach der Theorie des freien Volumens ergab, dass es sich bei den Mizellen um weiche Partikel handelt, deren Größe und Deformierbarkeit mit sinkendem Matrix-Molekulargewicht zunimmt.Der Einfluss des Blocklängenverhältnisses wurde an zwei PB-PS- Blockcopolymeren mit unterschiedlich langen PS-Blöcken (Kern) untersucht. Diese unterschieden sich jedoch in ihrem dynamischen Verhalten nicht maßgeblich. Es wurde jedoch ein deutlicher Unterschied zum PI-PS- System (s.o.) gefunden. Der zuvor gefundene Partikelcharakter wird für die PB-PS-Copolymere nicht mehr beobachtet. Dies wird auf den im Vergleich zum PI-PS-Copolymer deutlich längeren Coronablock zurückgeführt.

Genetic patterns in recovered specimens of Caretta caretta from the Adriatic Sea

The Adriatic Sea is considered a feeding and developmental area for Mediterranean loggerhead turtles, but this area is severely threatened by human impacts. In the Adriatic Sea loggerhead turtles are often found stranded or floating, but they are also recovered as by-catch from fishing activities. Nevertheless, information about population structuring and origin of individuals found in the Adriatic Sea are still limited. Cooperation with fishermen and a good network of voluntary collaborators are essential for understanding their distribution, ecology and for developing conservation strategies in the Adriatic Sea. In this study, a comparative analysis of biometric data and DNA sequence polymorphism of the long fragment of the mitochondrial control region was carried out on ninety-three loggerheads recovered from three feeding areas in the Adriatic Sea: North-western, North-eastern and South Adriatic. Differences in turtles body sizes (e.g. Straight Carapace Length) among the three recovery areas and relationship between SCL and the type of recovery were investigated. The origin of turtles from Mediterranean rookeries and the use of the Adriatic feeding habitats by loggerheads in different life-stages were assessed to understand the migratory pathway of the species. The analysis of biometric data revealed a significant difference in turtle sizes between the Southern and the Northern Adriatic. Moreover, size of captured turtles resulted significantly different from the size of stranded and floating individuals. Actually, neritic sub-adults and adults are more affected by incidental captures than juveniles because of their feeding behavior. The Bayesian mixed-stock analysis showed a strong genetic relationship between the Adriatic aggregates and Mediterranean rookeries, while a low pro¬portion of individuals of Atlantic origin were detected in the Adriatic feeding grounds. The presence of migratory pathways towards the Adriatic Sea due to the surface current system was reinforced by the finding of individuals bearing haplotypes endemic to the nesting populations of Libya, Greece and Israel. A relatively high contribution from Turkey and Cyprus to the Northwest and South Adriatic populations was identified when the three sampled areas were analyzed independently. These results have to be taken in account in a conservative perspective, since coastal hazards, affecting the population of turtles feeding in the Adriatic Sea may also affect the nesting populations of the Eastern Mediterranean with a unique genetic pattern.

Geographical partitioning of goat diversity in Europe and the Middle East

Thirty microsatellite markers were analysed in 1426 goats from 45 traditional or rare breeds in 15 European and Middle Eastern countries. In all populations inbreeding was indicated by heterozygosity deficiency (mean FIS = 0.10). Genetic differentiation between breeds was moderate with a mean FST value of 0.07, but for most (c. 71%) northern and central European breeds, individuals could be assigned to their breeds with a success rate of more than 80%. Bayesian-based clustering analysis of allele frequencies and multivariate analysis revealed at least four discrete clusters: eastern Mediterranean (Middle East), central Mediterranean, western Mediterranean and central/northern Europe. About 41% of the genetic variability among the breeds could be explained by their geographical origin. A decrease in genetic diversity from the south-east to the north-west was accompanied by an increase in the level of differentiation at the breed level. These observations support the hypothesis that domestic livestock migrated from the Middle East towards western and northern Europe and indicate that breed formation was more systematic in north-central Europe than in the Middle East. We propose that breed differentiation and molecular diversity are independent criteria for conservation.

Adaptive sensing for target tracking applications

In a statistical inference scenario, the estimation of target signal or its parameters is done by processing data from informative measurements. The estimation performance can be enhanced if we choose the measurements based on some criteria that help to direct our sensing resources such that the measurements are more informative about the parameter we intend to estimate. While taking multiple measurements, the measurements can be chosen online so that more information could be extracted from the data in each measurement process. This approach fits well in Bayesian inference model often used to produce successive posterior distributions of the associated parameter. We explore the sensor array processing scenario for adaptive sensing of a target parameter. The measurement choice is described by a measurement matrix that multiplies the data vector normally associated with the array signal processing. The adaptive sensing of both static and dynamic system models is done by the online selection of proper measurement matrix over time. For the dynamic system model, the target is assumed to move with some distribution and the prior distribution at each time step is changed. The information gained through adaptive sensing of the moving target is lost due to the relative shift of the target. The adaptive sensing paradigm has many similarities with compressive sensing. We have attempted to reconcile the two approaches by modifying the observation model of adaptive sensing to match the compressive sensing model for the estimation of a sparse vector.

What Makes Science Hard for Newcomers?

Part I What makes science hard for newcomers? 1) The background (briefly) of my research - (why the math anxiety model doesn’t fit) 2) The Tier analysis (a visual) – message: there are many types of science learners in your class than simply younger versions of yourself 3) Three approaches (bio, chem, physics) but only one Nature 4) The (different) vocabularies of the three Sciences 5) How mathematics is variously used in Science Part II Rules and rules-driven assignments- lQ vs OQ1) How to incorporate creativity into assignments and tests? 2) Tests- borrowing “thought questions" from other fields (If Columbus hadn't discovered the new World, when and under whose law would it have been discovered?) 3) Grading practices (partial credit, post-exam credit for finding and explaining nontrivial errors 4) Icing on the cake – applications, examples of science/engineering from Tuesdays NY Times Part III Making Change at the Departmental Level 1) Taking control of at least some portion of the curriculum 2) Varying style of presentation 3) Taking control of at least some portion of the exams 4) GRADING pros and cons of grading on a curve 5) Updating labs and lab reporting.

Effects of study precision and risk of bias in networks of interventions: a network meta-epidemiological study

BACKGROUND Empirical research has illustrated an association between study size and relative treatment effects, but conclusions have been inconsistent about the association of study size with the risk of bias items. Small studies give generally imprecisely estimated treatment effects, and study variance can serve as a surrogate for study size. METHODS We conducted a network meta-epidemiological study analyzing 32 networks including 613 randomized controlled trials, and used Bayesian network meta-analysis and meta-regression models to evaluate the impact of trial characteristics and study variance on the results of network meta-analysis. We examined changes in relative effects and between-studies variation in network meta-regression models as a function of the variance of the observed effect size and indicators for the adequacy of each risk of bias item. Adjustment was performed both within and across networks, allowing for between-networks variability. RESULTS Imprecise studies with large variances tended to exaggerate the effects of the active or new intervention in the majority of networks, with a ratio of odds ratios of 1.83 (95% CI: 1.09,3.32). Inappropriate or unclear conduct of random sequence generation and allocation concealment, as well as lack of blinding of patients and outcome assessors, did not materially impact on the summary results. Imprecise studies also appeared to be more prone to inadequate conduct. CONCLUSIONS Compared to more precise studies, studies with large variance may give substantially different answers that alter the results of network meta-analyses for dichotomous outcomes.

Comprehension of Co-Speech Gestures in Aphasic Patients: An Eye Movement Study.

BACKGROUND: Co-speech gestures are omnipresent and a crucial element of human interaction by facilitating language comprehension. However, it is unclear whether gestures also support language comprehension in aphasic patients. Using visual exploration behavior analysis, the present study aimed to investigate the influence of congruence between speech and co-speech gestures on comprehension in terms of accuracy in a decision task. METHOD: Twenty aphasic patients and 30 healthy controls watched videos in which speech was either combined with meaningless (baseline condition), congruent, or incongruent gestures. Comprehension was assessed with a decision task, while remote eye-tracking allowed analysis of visual exploration. RESULTS: In aphasic patients, the incongruent condition resulted in a significant decrease of accuracy, while the congruent condition led to a significant increase in accuracy compared to baseline accuracy. In the control group, the incongruent condition resulted in a decrease in accuracy, while the congruent condition did not significantly increase the accuracy. Visual exploration analysis showed that patients fixated significantly less on the face and tended to fixate more on the gesturing hands compared to controls. CONCLUSION: Co-speech gestures play an important role for aphasic patients as they modulate comprehension. Incongruent gestures evoke significant interference and deteriorate patients' comprehension. In contrast, congruent gestures enhance comprehension in aphasic patients, which might be valuable for clinical and therapeutic purposes.

Vinos de Mendoza : relación precio en góndola versus calidad en degustación a ciegas

Cuando un posible consumidor de vinos decide su compra, lo hace influenciado por factores relacionados no sólo con la calidad del producto sino también con el conocimiento que tiene de la marca. Esta investigación se inició con un mapeo de vinos ofrecidos en puntos de venta minorista del Gran Mendoza, para luego realizar una degustación a ciegas con panelistas de la provincia de Mendoza, de sectores de ingresos medios, cuya única condición era la de ser consumidor de vinos. Los vinos elegidos para degustar fueron los que tenían presencia importante en los lugares de venta. Además se realizó una selección en góndola simulada, con vinos presentados con sus precios y packaging. La apreciación sensorial se complementó con el precio que el consumidor pagaría por lo que estaba degustando. En la selección en góndola el panelista no eligió el envase tetrabrik aunque después, al degustar a ciegas el producto, había predisposición a pagar mayor precio que el de mercado. La explicación de tal comportamiento podría encontrarse en que el envase tetrabrik podría asociarse a una clase social baja, mientras que la botella a las clases sociales de mayor ingreso. El análisis sensorial (sentidos: visual, olfativo, gustativo y equilibrio) permitió observar que los panelistas otorgan puntuaciones superiores a la media del rango especificado, en los precios más bajos. El consumidor tiene disposición a pagar precios menores a medida que los precios en góndola son más altos.