998 resultados para Automobiles -- Groupes motopropulseurs
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Record of the Fatalities for Motor Vehicle Accidents in Iowa per week.
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Abstract : The role of order effects has been widely shown and discussed in areas such as memory and social impression formation. This work focuses in a first half on order effects influencing the verdict chosen at the end of a criminal trial. Contrary to impression formation but according to trial's characteristics, it has been hypothesised that a recency effect would influence the verdict's choice. Three groups of students (N = 576) received a mock trial resume with a specific order stemming from the combination of three witnesses, one expert and two ocular witnesses. Results show a recency effect, the last testimony provoking significantly more acquittals if discriminating, and more condemnations if incriminating. The second half of this work starts from Gestalt and sociopsychological researches presenting numerous insights into cognitive organization of perceptions and opinions. It has been postulated that a witness probative value will change according to the emitted verdict, an incriminating witness or expert possessing a higher probative value in a condemning verdict than in an innocenting one, on the other hand a discriminating witness or expert having a higher probative value in an acquittal than in a condemnation. Results using a seven points scale measuring witnesses' probative value confirm this hypothesis. Argumentations written by the subjects to explain their verdict and refering to the accusing expert also show a congruency effect as categories of arguments are identical in case of condemnation or acquittal, the only difference between both types of verdicts residing in the frequency of these categories following the judgement, higher use of incriminating arguments in case of guiltiness and higher use of discriminating ones if the accused is found innocent. Résumé : L'intervention des effets sériels a fait l'objet de nombreuses recherches dans le domaine de la mémoire et de la formation d'impression en psychologie sociale. Ce travail s'intéresse dans une première partie aux effets d'ordre pouvant influencer le choix du verdict à la fin d'un procès pénal. Contrairement aux résultats obtenus en matière de formation d'impression, mais conformément aux caractéristiques d'un procès, l'hypothèse de l'intervention d'un effet de récence a été formulée, affirmant que les derniers témoins influencent le plus le choix du verdict. Trois groupes d'étudiants (N = 576) ont lu le résumé d'un procès fictif présentant trois témoignages, deux témoins visuels à décharge et un expert à charge. Chaque groupe recevait un ordre spécifique de présentation des témoins de sorte que l'expert se trouvait en première, deuxième ou troisième position. Les résultats montrent un effet de récence, le dernier témoin provoquant davantage d'acquittements s'il est disculpant et davantage de condamnations s'il est inculpant. La seconde partie de ce travail émane des recherches effectuées dans le domaine de la théorie de la forme et de la psychologie sociale ayant un intérêt marqué pour l'organisation cognitive de nos perceptions et de nos opinions. L'hypothèse que nous avons posée souligne le lien entretenu entre l'évaluation de la force probante d'un témoin et le verdict émis : un témoignage discriminant possédera plus de poids en cas d'acquittement qu'en cas de condamnation, inversement un témoignage incriminant aura plus de poids en cas de condamnation qu'en cas d'acquittement. L'utilisation d'une échelle en sept points mesurant la force probante des deux types de témoins confirme cette hypothèse, l'estimation de la valeur accordée à un même témoin variant selon le type de verdict choisi. Les argumentations de chaque verdict ont également montré que les catégories d'arguments se référant à l'expert étaient identiques en cas de condamnation ou d'acquittement de l'inculpé, par contre les fréquences de ces catégories entretiennent un lien congruent avec le verdict, celles inculpantes étant majoritairement utilisées pour asseoir la culpabilité mais peu représentées en cas d'acquittement, inversement celles disculpantes apparaissant bien plus lorsqu'il s'agit d'innocenter l'inculpé que pour le condamner.
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Record of the Fatalities for Motor Vehicle Accidents in Iowa per week.
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Record of the Fatalities for Motor Vehicle Accidents in Iowa per week.
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Record of the Fatalities for Motor Vehicle Accidents in Iowa per week.
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Record of the Fatalities for Motor Vehicle Accidents in Iowa per week.
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RESUME: L'objectif de cette étude était de déterminer l'impact de la grossesse non compliquée sur l'onde de pouls de la pression aortique centrale. Méthode 66 femmes au total avec une grossesse simple ont été réparties en trois groupes selon le stade de leur gestation: premier trimestre (T1, n=22), deuxième trimestre (T2, n=20) et troisième trimestre (T3, n=24). Le groupe contrôle (C, n=21) était constitué de femmes non enceintes, en bonne santé habituelle, prenant une contraception oestroprogestative. La tonométrie d'aplanation a été utilisée pour l'acquisition des ondes de pouls centrale un appareil disponible dans le commerce (SphygmoCor) permet l'enregistrement de l'onde de pouls périphérique avec un tonomètre d'aplanation de l'artère radiale au niveau du poignet, puis effectue sa transformation en sa forme centrale, grâce à une analyse de Fourrier et une fonction de transfert. L'influence des ondes réfléchies sur l'onde de pouls a été déterminée non seulement pendant la systole (augmentation systolique), comme on procède habituellement dans l'analyse de l'onde de pouls, mais aussi pendant la diastole (augmentation diastolique). Résultats Au cours de la grossesse, les pressions centrales systolique et diastolique sont restées inchangées et comparables aux valeurs mesurées chez les femmes qui ne sont pas enceintes. Dans le groupe contrôle, l'augmentation systolique s'élevait à 8.1±7.5% de la pression de pouls ; il n'y avait pas de différence statistiquement significative avec les valeurs obtenues chez les femmes enceintes, et ce, à n'importe quel stade de la grossesse (T1 : 4.6±11.4%, T2: 5.0±9.3%, T3 : 4.7±8.1%). Par contre, l'amplitude de l'augmentation diastolique diminuait avec la progression de la grossesse (C 6.5±2.4%, T1 : 5.2±3.1%, T2 : 3.8±2.6%; P=0.002 versus C; T3 : 2.3±2.0%; P<0.0001 versus C et P=0.004 versus T 1). Conclusion La grossesse ne modifie pas la forme de l'onde de pouls systolique centrale, ce qui implique de la part du système cardiovasculaire une adaptation fine à la demande croissante de flux sanguin, et ce, à tous les stades de la grossesse. Par contre, l'amplitude de l'onde de réflexion atteignant l'aorte pendant la diastole diminue progressivement au cours de la grossesse. Perspectives De récentes études montrent qu'une valeur anormalement haute de l'augmentation systolique de la pression centrale, comme on peut la déterminer avec la tonométrie d'aplanation, pourrait être un indice de trouble hypertensif de la grossesse débutant. Cette technique simple pourrait être d'autant plus facile à mettre en oeuvre si les valeurs normales pour l'augmentation systolique étaient indépendantes du stade de la grossesse, comme le suggèrent nos résultats, du moins pour les mesures prises en position assise.
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We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.
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Record of the Fatalities for Motor Vehicle Accidents in Iowa per week.
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Record of the Fatalities for Motor Vehicle Accidents in Iowa per week.
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Record of the Fatalities for Motor Vehicle Accidents in Iowa per week.
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Record of the Fatalities for Motor Vehicle Accidents in Iowa per week.
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Record of the Fatalities for Motor Vehicle Accidents in Iowa per week.
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Record of the Fatalities for Motor Vehicle Accidents in Iowa per week.
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Record of the Fatalities for Motor Vehicle Accidents in Iowa per week.
