Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Dating polygenetic metamorphic assemblages along a transect across the Western Alps

Multichronometric analyses were performed on samples from a transect in the French-Italian Western Alps crossing nappes derived from the Briançonnais terrane and the Piemonte-Liguria Ocean, in an endeavour to constrain the high-pressure (HP) metamorphism and the retrogression history. 12 samples of white mica were analysed by 39Ar-40Ar stepwise heating, complemented by 2 samples from the Monte Rosa 100 km to the NE and also attributed to the Briançonnais terrane. One Sm-Nd and three Lu-Hf garnet ages from eclogites were also obtained. White mica ages decrease from ca. 300 Ma in the westernmost samples (Zone Houillère), reaching ca. 300 °C during Alpine metamorphism, to < 48 Ma in the internal units to the East, which reached ca. 500 °C during Alpine orogeny. The conventional “thermochronological” interpretation postulates Cretaceous Eo-Alpine HP metamorphism and younger “cooling ages” in the higher-temperature samples. However, Eocene Lu-Hf and Sm-Nd ages from the same samples cannot be interpreted as post-metamorphic cooling ages, which makes a Cretaceous eclogitization untenable. The age date from this transect require instead to replace conventional “thermochronology” by an approach combining age dating with detailed geochemical, petrological and microstructural investigations. Petrology reveals important mineralogical differences along the transect. Samples from the Zone Houillère mostly contain detrital mica. White mica with Si > 6.45 atoms per formula unit becomes more abundant eastward. Across the whole traverse, HP phengitic mica forms the D1 foliation. Syn-D2 mica is Si-poorer and associated with nappe stacking, exhumation, and hydrous retrogression under greenschist facies conditions. D1 phengite is very often corroded, overgrown or intergrown by syn-D2 muscovite. Most importantly, syn-D2 recrystallization is not limited to S2 schistosity domains; microchemical fingerprinting shows that it also can form pseudomorphs after crystals that could be mistaken to have formed during D1 based on microstructural arguments alone. Thereby the Cl concentration in white mica is a useful discriminator, since D2 retrogression was associated with a less saline fluid than eclogitization. Once the petrological stage is set, geochronology is straightforward. All samples contain mixtures of detrital, syn-D1 and syn-D2 mica, and retrogression phases (D3) in greatly varying proportions according to local pressure-temperature-fluid activity-deformation conditions. The correlation of age vs. Cl/K clearly identifies 47 ± 1 Ma as the age of formation of syn-D1 mica along the entire transect, including the Monte Rosa nappe samples. The inferred age of the greenschist-facies low-Si syn-D2 mica generation ranges within 39-43 Ma, with local variations. Coexistence of D1 and D2 ages, and the constancy of non-reset D1 ages along the entire transect, are strong evidence that the D1 white mica ages are very close to formation ages. Volume diffusion of Ar in white mica (activation energy E = 250 kJ/mol; pressure-adjusted diffusion coefficient D’0 < 0.03 cm2 s-1) has a subordinate effect on mineral ages compared to both prograde and retrograde recrystallization in most samples. Eocene Lu-Hf and Sm-Nd garnet ages are prograde and predate the HP peak.

UNESCO World Heritage „Prehistoric pile-dwellings around the Alps“: Chances and Challenges for Management and Research of Cultural Heritage Under Water

Research in prehistoric sites of lakes and bogs around the Alps started more than 150 years ago. In 2004 Switzerland took the initiative to propose an international UNESCO world heritage nomination, which was successful in 2011. Six countries – Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia and Switzerland – joined forces to obtain the precious label for an invisible cultural heritage of outstanding universal value. Archaeological sites under water or in bogs are of special importance because objects made of organic material like wood, bark, plant fibres and others survive in this milieu for hundred or thousands of years. The alpine pile-dwelling sites offer a highly precise dating possibility by using dendrochronology. All in all these sites have a high scientific potential but run also risks of long term conservation. Beside the scientific chances there are risks to consider: public access is difficult and a major challenge. New ideas are demanded to keep alive public interest.

Ancient DNA, a Neolithic legging from the Swiss Alps and the early history of goat

Ancient DNA from a Neolithic legging (1st half of the 3rd millennium BC) found at Lenk, Schnidejoch (2750 m a.sl.) in the Swiss Alps has demonstrated, that modern distribution of genetic variation does not reflect past spatio-temporal signatures. The legging was made from the skin of a domestic goat (Capra hircus), belonging to the caprine haplogroup B1, which is marginal in Europe today, but represents a third highly diverse goat haplogroup entering Europe already in the Neolithic. Population expansion of lineage B therefore happened more than 4500 years ago, but their members were at some point almost completely replaced by goats of today's common A and C haplogroups.

Microstructural, chemical and isotopic evidence for the origin of late neolithic leather recovered from an ice field in the Swiss Alps

Archaeological leather samples recovered from the ice field at the Schnidejoch Pass (altitude 2756 m amsl) in the western Swiss Alps were studied using optical, chemical molecular and isotopic (δ13C and δ15N of the bulk leather, and compound-specific δ13C analyses of the organic-solvent extracted fatty acids) methods to obtain insight into the origin of the leather and ancient tanning procedures. For comparison, leathers from modern native animals in alpine environment (red deer, goat, sheep, chamois, and calf/cow) were analyzed using the same approach. Optical and electron microscopically comparisons of Schnidejoch and modern leathers showed that the gross structure (pattern of collagen fibrils and intra-fibrils material) of archaeological leather had survived essentially intact for five millennia. The SEM studies of the hairs from the most important archaeological find, a Neolithic leather legging, show a wave structure of the hair cuticle, which is a diagnostic feature for goatskins. The variations of the bulk δ13C and δ15N values, and δ13C values of the main fatty acids are within the range expected for pre-industrial temperate C3 environment. The archaeological leather samples contain a mixture of indigenous (from the animal) and exogenous plant/animal lipids. An important amount of waxy n-alkanes, n-alkan-1-ols and phytosterols (β-sitosterol, sitostanol) in all samples, and abundant biomarker of conifers (nonacosan-10-ol) in the legging leathers clearly indicate that the Neolithic people were active in a subalpine coniferous forest, and that they used an aqueous extract of diverse plant material for tanning leather.

Precambrian to Paleozoic zircon record in the Siviez-Mischabel basement (western Swiss Alps)

U–Pb zircon analyses from three meta-igneous and two metasedimentary rocks from the Siviez-Mischabel nappe in the western Swiss Alps are presented, and are used to derive an evolutionary history spanning from Paleoarchean crustal growth to Permian magmatism. The oldest components are preserved in zircons from metasedimentary albitic schists. The oldest zircon core in these schists is 3.4 Ga old. Detrital zircons reveal episodes of crustal growth in the Neoarchean (2.7–2.5 Ga), Paleoproterozoic (2.2–1.9 Ma) and Neoproterozoic (800–550 Ma, Pan-African event). The maximum age of deposition for the metasedimentary rocks is given by the youngest detrital zircons within both metasedimentary samples dated at ~490 Ma (Cambrian-Ordovician boundary). This is in the age range of two granitoid samples dated at 505 ± 4 and 482 ± 7 Ma, and indicates sedimentation and magmatism in an extensional setting preceding an Ordovician orogeny. The third felsic meta-igneous rock gives a Permian age of intrusion, and is part of a long-lasting Variscan to post-Variscan magmatic activity. The zircons record only minor disturbance of the U–Pb system during the Alpine orogeny.

The role of human-induced fire and sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) cultivation on the long-term landscape dynamics of the southern Swiss Alps

Changes in fire occurrence during the last decades in the southern Swiss Alps make knowledge on fire history essential to understand future evolution of the ecosystem composition and functioning. In this context, palaeoecology provides useful insights into processes operating at decadal-to-millennial time scales, such as the response of plant communities to intensified fire disturbances during periods of cultural change. We provide a high-resolution macroscopic charcoal and pollen series from Guèr, a well-dated peat sequence at mid-elevation (832 m.a.s.l.) in southern Switzerland, where the presence of local settlements is documented since the late Bronze Age and the Iron Age. Quantitative fire reconstruction shows that fire activity sharply increased from the Neolithic period (1–3 episodes/1000 year) to the late Bronze and Iron Age (7–9 episodes/1000 year), leading to extensive clearance of the former mixed deciduous forest (Alnus glutinosa, Betula, deciduous Quercus). The increase in anthropogenic pollen indicators (e.g. Cerealia-type, Plantago lanceolata) together with macroscopic charcoal suggests anthropogenic rather than climatic forcing as the main cause of the observed vegetation shift. Fire and controlled burning were extensively used during the late Roman Times and early Middle Ages to promote the introduction and establishment of chestnut (Castanea sativa) stands, which provided an important wood and food supply. Fire occurrence declined markedly (from 9 to 5–6 episodes/1000 year) during late Middle Ages because of fire suppression, biomass removal by human population, and landscape fragmentation. Land-abandonment during the last decades allowed forest to partly re-expand (mainly Alnus glutinosa, Betula) and fire frequency to increase.