Optimal simultaneous maximum a posterioriestimation of states, noise statistics and parameters I. Algorithm

The simultaneous state and parameter estimation problem for a linear discrete-time system with unknown noise statistics is treated as a large-scale optimization problem. The a posterioriprobability density function is maximized directly with respect to the states and parameters subject to the constraint of the system dynamics. The resulting optimization problem is too large for any of the standard non-linear programming techniques and hence an hierarchical optimization approach is proposed. It turns out that the states can be computed at the first levelfor given noise and system parameters. These, in turn, are to be modified at the second level.The states are to be computed from a large system of linear equations and two solution methods are considered for solving these equations, limiting the horizon to a suitable length. The resulting algorithm is a filter-smoother, suitable for off-line as well as on-line state estimation for given noise and system parameters. The second level problem is split up into two, one for modifying the noise statistics and the other for modifying the system parameters. An adaptive relaxation technique is proposed for modifying the noise statistics and a modified Gauss-Newton technique is used to adjust the system parameters.

Optimal simultaneous maximum a posterioriestimation of states, noise statistics and parameters II. Numerical performance

A very general and numerically quite robust algorithm has been proposed by Sastry and Gauvrit (1980) for system identification. The present paper takes it up and examines its performance on a real test example. The example considered is the lateral dynamics of an aircraft. This is used as a vehicle for demonstrating the performance of various aspects of the algorithm in several possible modes.

Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.

Performance parameters of some new hybrid hypergols

Abstract is not available.

The effect of solar activity on temperatures in the equatorial mesosphere

A study of the response of neutral temperatures in the equatorial mesosphere to variations in solar activity has been carried out by investigating the correlation between the 10.7 cm solar radio flux and temperatures obtained from a series of 51 rocket soundings conducted over Thumba, India (8°N, 77°E) during the period December 1970–December 1971. A strong positive correlation between these two parameters has been obtained, indicating mesospheric heating effects caused by day-to-day variations in solar EUV emission. The correlation analysis indicates that this response persists over several days and that the peak correlation between the temperatures and the F10.7 index occurs with a time lag of less than 24 hr.

Estimation of cosmological parameters using adaptive importance sampling

We present a Bayesian sampling algorithm called adaptive importance sampling or population Monte Carlo (PMC), whose computational workload is easily parallelizable and thus has the potential to considerably reduce the wall-clock time required for sampling, along with providing other benefits. To assess the performance of the approach for cosmological problems, we use simulated and actual data consisting of CMB anisotropies, supernovae of type Ia, and weak cosmological lensing, and provide a comparison of results to those obtained using state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). For both types of data sets, we find comparable parameter estimates for PMC and MCMC, with the advantage of a significantly lower wall-clock time for PMC. In the case of WMAP5 data, for example, the wall-clock time scale reduces from days for MCMC to hours using PMC on a cluster of processors. Other benefits of the PMC approach, along with potential difficulties in using the approach, are analyzed and discussed.

Chemical mass closure and source-specific composition of atmospheric particles

It has been known for decades that particles can cause adverse health effects as they are deposited within the respiratory system. Atmospheric aerosol particles influence climate by scattering solar radiation but aerosol particles act also as the nuclei around which cloud droplets form. The principal objectives of this thesis were to investigate the chemical composition and the sources of fine particles in different environments (traffic, urban background, remote) as well as during some specific air pollution situations. Quantifying the climate and health effects of atmospheric aerosols is not possible without detailed information of the aerosol chemical composition. Aerosol measurements were carried out at nine sites in six countries (Finland, Germany, Czech, Netherlands, Greece and Italy). Several different instruments were used in order to measure both the particulate matter (PM) mass and its chemical composition. In the off-line measurements the samples were collected first on a substrate or filter and gravimetric and chemical analysis were conducted in the laboratory. In the on-line measurements the sampling and analysis were either a combined procedure or performed successively within the same instrument. Results from the impactor samples were analyzed by the statistical methods. This thesis comprises also a work where a method for the determination carbonaceous matter size distribution by using a multistage impactor was developed. It was found that the chemistry of PM has usually strong spatial, temporal and size-dependent variability. In the Finnish sites most of the fine PM consisted of organic matter. However, in Greece sulfate dominated the fine PM and in Italy nitrate made the largest contribution to the fine PM. Regarding the size-dependent chemical composition, organic components were likely to be enriched in smaller particles than inorganic ions. Data analysis showed that organic carbon (OC) had four major sources in Helsinki. Secondary production was the major source in Helsinki during spring, summer and fall, whereas in winter biomass combustion dominated OC. The significant impact of biomass combustion on OC concentrations was also observed in the measurements performed in Central Europe. In this thesis aerosol samples were collected mainly by the conventional filter and impactor methods which suffered from the long integration time. However, by filter and impactor measurements chemical mass closure was achieved accurately, and a simple filter sampling was found to be useful in order to explain the sources of PM on the seasonal basis. The online instruments gave additional information related to the temporal variations of the sources and the atmospheric mixing conditions.

Atmospheric survey of pollen of Parthenium hysterophorus

An aerobiological survey to study the incidence and concentration of the pollen of Parthenium hysterophorus was conducted in Bangalore, India for a period of one year. This study indicated that Parthenium pollen was present in the atmosphere in significant amounts eigher as single pollen grains or in the form of clumps during the months of June to August.

Estimates of genetic parameters for growth and wood properties in Eucalyptus pellita F. Muell. to support tree breeding in Vietnam

Key message Eucalyptus pellita demonstrated good growth and wood quality traits in this study, with young plantation grown timber being suitable for both solid and pulp wood products. All traits examined were under moderate levels of genetic control with little genotype by environment interaction when grown on two contrasting sites in Vietnam. Context Eucalyptus pellita currently has a significant role in reforestation in the tropics. Research to support expanded of use of this species is needed: particularly, research to better understand the genetic control of key traits will facilitate the development of genetically improved planting stock. Aims This study aimed to provide estimates of the heritability of diameter at breast height over bark, wood basic density, Kraft pulp yield, modulus of elasticity and microfibril angle, and the genetic correlations among these traits, and understand the importance of genotype by environment interactions in Vietnam. Methods Data for diameter and wood properties were collected from two 10-year-old, open-pollinated progeny trials of E. pellita in Vietnam that evaluated 104 families from six native range and three orchard sources. Wood properties were estimated from wood samples using near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Data were analysed using mixed linear models to estimate genetic parameters (heritability, proportion of variance between seed sources and genetic correlations). Results Variation among the nine sources was small compared to additive variance. Narrow-sense heritability and genetic correlation estimates indicated that simultaneous improvements in most traits could be achieved from selection among and within families as the genetic correlations among traits were either favourable or close to zero. Type B genetic correlations approached one for all traits suggesting that genotype by environment interactions were of little importance. These results support a breeding strategy utilizing a single breeding population advanced by selecting the best individuals across all seed sources. Conclusion Both growth and wood properties have been evaluated. Multi-trait selection for growth and wood property traits will lead to more productive populations of E. pellita both with improved productivity and improved timber and pulp properties.

Parameters Affecting the Extraction of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons with Pressurised Hot Water

Pressurised hot water extraction (PHWE) exploits the unique temperature-dependent solvent properties of water minimising the use of harmful organic solvents. Water is environmentally friendly, cheap and easily available extraction medium. The effects of temperature, pressure and extraction time in PHWE have often been studied, but here the emphasis was on other parameters important for the extraction, most notably the dimensions of the extraction vessel and the stability and solubility of the analytes to be extracted. Non-linear data analysis and self-organising maps were employed in the data analysis to obtain correlations between the parameters studied, recoveries and relative errors. First, pressurised hot water extraction (PHWE) was combined on-line with liquid chromatography-gas chromatography (LC-GC), and the system was applied to the extraction and analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediment. The method is of superior sensitivity compared with the traditional methods, and only a small 10 mg sample was required for analysis. The commercial extraction vessels were replaced by laboratory-made stainless steel vessels because of some problems that arose. The performance of the laboratory-made vessels was comparable to that of the commercial ones. In an investigation of the effect of thermal desorption in PHWE, it was found that at lower temperatures (200ºC and 250ºC) the effect of thermal desorption is smaller than the effect of the solvating property of hot water. At 300ºC, however, thermal desorption is the main mechanism. The effect of the geometry of the extraction vessel on recoveries was studied with five specially constructed extraction vessels. In addition to the extraction vessel geometry, the sediment packing style and the direction of water flow through the vessel were investigated. The geometry of the vessel was found to have only minor effect on the recoveries, and the same was true of the sediment packing style and the direction of water flow through the vessel. These are good results because these parameters do not have to be carefully optimised before the start of extractions. Liquid-liquid extraction (LLE) and solid-phase extraction (SPE) were compared as trapping techniques for PHWE. LLE was more robust than SPE and it provided better recoveries and repeatabilities than did SPE. Problems related to blocking of the Tenax trap and unrepeatable trapping of the analytes were encountered in SPE. Thus, although LLE is more labour intensive, it can be recommended over SPE. The stabilities of the PAHs in aqueous solutions were measured using a batch-type reaction vessel. Degradation was observed at 300ºC even with the shortest heating time. Ketones and quinones and other oxidation products were observed. Although the conditions of the stability studies differed considerably from the extraction conditions in PHWE, the results indicate that the risk of analyte degradation must be taken into account in PHWE. The aqueous solubilities of acenaphthene, anthracene and pyrene were measured, first below and then above the melting point of the analytes. Measurements below the melting point were made to check that the equipment was working, and the results were compared with those obtained earlier. Good agreement was found between the measured and literature values. A new saturation cell was constructed for the solubility measurements above the melting point of the analytes because the flow-through saturation cell could not be used above the melting point. An exponential relationship was found between the solubilities measured for pyrene and anthracene and temperature.

Comprehensive Two-Dimensional Gas Chromatography: Instrumental and Methodological Development

Comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC×GC) offers enhanced separation efficiency, reliability in qualitative and quantitative analysis, capability to detect low quantities, and information on the whole sample and its components. These features are essential in the analysis of complex samples, in which the number of compounds may be large or the analytes of interest are present at trace level. This study involved the development of instrumentation, data analysis programs and methodologies for GC×GC and their application in studies on qualitative and quantitative aspects of GC×GC analysis. Environmental samples were used as model samples. Instrumental development comprised the construction of three versions of a semi-rotating cryogenic modulator in which modulation was based on two-step cryogenic trapping with continuously flowing carbon dioxide as coolant. Two-step trapping was achieved by rotating the nozzle spraying the carbon dioxide with a motor. The fastest rotation and highest modulation frequency were achieved with a permanent magnetic motor, and modulation was most accurate when the motor was controlled with a microcontroller containing a quartz crystal. Heated wire resistors were unnecessary for the desorption step when liquid carbon dioxide was used as coolant. With use of the modulators developed in this study, the narrowest peaks were 75 ms at base. Three data analysis programs were developed allowing basic, comparison and identification operations. Basic operations enabled the visualisation of two-dimensional plots and the determination of retention times, peak heights and volumes. The overlaying feature in the comparison program allowed easy comparison of 2D plots. An automated identification procedure based on mass spectra and retention parameters allowed the qualitative analysis of data obtained by GC×GC and time-of-flight mass spectrometry. In the methodological development, sample preparation (extraction and clean-up) and GC×GC methods were developed for the analysis of atmospheric aerosol and sediment samples. Dynamic sonication assisted extraction was well suited for atmospheric aerosols collected on a filter. A clean-up procedure utilising normal phase liquid chromatography with ultra violet detection worked well in the removal of aliphatic hydrocarbons from a sediment extract. GC×GC with flame ionisation detection or quadrupole mass spectrometry provided good reliability in the qualitative analysis of target analytes. However, GC×GC with time-of-flight mass spectrometry was needed in the analysis of unknowns. The automated identification procedure that was developed was efficient in the analysis of large data files, but manual search and analyst knowledge are invaluable as well. Quantitative analysis was examined in terms of calibration procedures and the effect of matrix compounds on GC×GC separation. In addition to calibration in GC×GC with summed peak areas or peak volumes, simplified area calibration based on normal GC signal can be used to quantify compounds in samples analysed by GC×GC so long as certain qualitative and quantitative prerequisites are met. In a study of the effect of matrix compounds on GC×GC separation, it was shown that quality of the separation of PAHs is not significantly disturbed by the amount of matrix and quantitativeness suffers only slightly in the presence of matrix and when the amount of target compounds is low. The benefits of GC×GC in the analysis of complex samples easily overcome some minor drawbacks of the technique. The developed instrumentation and methodologies performed well for environmental samples, but they could also be applied for other complex samples.

Pen parameters for improving the performance of sheep imported from Australia to Persian Gulf feedlots

Summer in the Persian Gulf region presents physiological challenges for Australian sheep that are part of the live export supply chain coming from the Australian winter. Many feedlots throughout the Gulf have very high numbers of animals during June to August in order to cater for the increased demand for religious festivals. From an animal welfare perspective it is important to understand the necessary requirements of feed and water trough allowances, and the amount of pen space required, to cope with exposure to these types of climatic conditions. This study addresses parameters that are pertinent to the wellbeing of animals arriving in the Persian Gulf all year round. Three experiments were conducted in a feedlot in the Persian Gulf between March 2010 and February 2012, totalling 44 replicate pens each with 60 or 100 sheep. The applied treatments covered animal densities, feed-bunk lengths and water trough lengths. Weights, carcass attributes and health status were the key recorded variables. Weight change results showed superior performance for animal densities of ≥1.2 m2/head during hot conditions (24-h average temperatures greater than 33 °C, or a diurnal range of around 29–37 °C). However the space allowance for animals can be decreased, with no demonstrated detrimental effect, to 0.6 m2/head under milder conditions. A feed-bunk length of ≥5 cm/head is needed, as 2 cm/head showed significantly poorer animal performance. When feeding at 90 ad libitum 10 cm/head was optimal, however under a maintenance feeding regime (1 kg/head/day) 5 cm/head was adequate. A minimum water trough allowance of 1 cm/head is required. However, this experiment was conducted during milder conditions, and it may well be expected that larger water trough lengths would be needed in hotter conditions. Carcass weights were determined mainly by weights at feedlot entry and subsequent weight gains, while dressing percentage was not significantly affected by any of the applied treatments. There was no demonstrated effect of any of the treatments on the number of animals that died, or were classified as unwell. However, across all the treatments, these animals lost significantly more weight than the healthy animals, so the above recommendations, which are aimed at maintaining weight, should also be applicable for good animal health and welfare. Therefore, best practice guidelines for managing Australian sheep in Persian Gulf feedlots in the hottest months (June–August) which present the greatest environmental and physical challenge is to allow feed-bunk length 5 cm/head on a maintenance-feeding program and 10 cm/head for 90 ad libitum feeding, and the space allowance per animal should be ≥1.2 m2/head. Water trough allocation should be at least 1 cm/head with provision for more in the summer when water intake potentially doubles.

Thermal activation parameters for low temperature deformation of alpha-hafnium

Abstract is not available.