Data assimilation for precipitation nowcasting using Bayesian inference

This work introduces a new variational Bayes data assimilation method for the stochastic estimation of precipitation dynamics using radar observations for short term probabilistic forecasting (nowcasting). A previously developed spatial rainfall model based on the decomposition of the observed precipitation field using a basis function expansion captures the precipitation intensity from radar images as a set of ‘rain cells’. The prior distributions for the basis function parameters are carefully chosen to have a conjugate structure for the precipitation field model to allow a novel variational Bayes method to be applied to estimate the posterior distributions in closed form, based on solving an optimisation problem, in a spirit similar to 3D VAR analysis, but seeking approximations to the posterior distribution rather than simply the most probable state. A hierarchical Kalman filter is used to estimate the advection field based on the assimilated precipitation fields at two times. The model is applied to tracking precipitation dynamics in a realistic setting, using UK Met Office radar data from both a summer convective event and a winter frontal event. The performance of the model is assessed both traditionally and using probabilistic measures of fit based on ROC curves. The model is shown to provide very good assimilation characteristics, and promising forecast skill. Improvements to the forecasting scheme are discussed

Bayesian data assimilation

This thesis addresses data assimilation, which typically refers to the estimation of the state of a physical system given a model and observations, and its application to short-term precipitation forecasting. A general introduction to data assimilation is given, both from a deterministic and' stochastic point of view. Data assimilation algorithms are reviewed, in the static case (when no dynamics are involved), then in the dynamic case. A double experiment on two non-linear models, the Lorenz 63 and the Lorenz 96 models, is run and the comparative performance of the methods is discussed in terms of quality of the assimilation, robustness "in the non-linear regime and computational time. Following the general review and analysis, data assimilation is discussed in the particular context of very short-term rainfall forecasting (nowcasting) using radar images. An extended Bayesian precipitation nowcasting model is introduced. The model is stochastic in nature and relies on the spatial decomposition of the rainfall field into rain "cells". Radar observations are assimilated using a Variational Bayesian method in which the true posterior distribution of the parameters is approximated by a more tractable distribution. The motion of the cells is captured by a 20 Gaussian process. The model is tested on two precipitation events, the first dominated by convective showers, the second by precipitation fronts. Several deterministic and probabilistic validation methods are applied and the model is shown to retain reasonable prediction skill at up to 3 hours lead time. Extensions to the model are discussed.

Data Assimilation Technique For Flood Monitoring and Prediction

This paper focuses on the development of methods and cascade of models for flood monitoring and forecasting and its implementation in Grid environment. The processing of satellite data for flood extent mapping is done using neural networks. For flood forecasting we use cascade of models: regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, hydrological model and hydraulic model. Implementation of developed methods and models in the Grid infrastructure and related projects are discussed.

Understanding Immigrants' Travel Behavior in Florida: Neighborhood Effects and Behavioral Assimilation

The goal of this study was to develop Multinomial Logit models for the mode choice behavior of immigrants, with key focuses on neighborhood effects and behavioral assimilation. The first aspect shows the relationship between social network ties and immigrants’ chosen mode of transportation, while the second aspect explores the gradual changes toward alternative mode usage with regard to immigrants’ migrating period in the United States (US). Mode choice models were developed for work, shopping, social, recreational, and other trip purposes to evaluate the impacts of various land use patterns, neighborhood typology, socioeconomic-demographic and immigrant related attributes on individuals’ travel behavior. Estimated coefficients of mode choice determinants were compared between each alternative mode (i.e., high-occupancy vehicle, public transit, and non-motorized transport) with single-occupant vehicles. The model results revealed the significant influence of neighborhood and land use variables on the usage of alternative modes among immigrants. Incorporating these indicators into the demand forecasting process will provide a better understanding of the diverse travel patterns for the unique composition of population groups in Florida.

A new stepwise carbon cycle data assimilation system using multiple data streams to constrain the simulated land surface carbon cycle

Acknowledgements. This work was mainly funded by the EU FP7 CARBONES project (contracts FP7-SPACE-2009-1-242316), with also a small contribution from GEOCARBON project (ENV.2011.4.1.1-1-283080). This work used eddy covariance data acquired by the FLUXNET community and in particular by the following networks: AmeriFlux (U.S. Department of Energy, Biological and Environmental Research, Terrestrial Carbon Program; DE-FG02-04ER63917 and DE-FG02-04ER63911), AfriFlux, AsiaFlux, CarboAfrica, CarboEuropeIP, CarboItaly, CarboMont, ChinaFlux, Fluxnet-Canada (supported by CFCAS, NSERC, BIOCAP, Environment Canada, and NRCan), GreenGrass, KoFlux, LBA, NECC, OzFlux, TCOS-Siberia, USCCC. We acknowledge the financial support to the eddy covariance data harmonization provided by CarboEuropeIP, FAO-GTOS-TCO, iLEAPS, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, National Science Foundation, University of Tuscia, Université Laval and Environment Canada and US Department of Energy and the database development and technical support from Berkeley Water Center, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Microsoft Research eScience, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, University of California-Berkeley, University of Virginia. Philippe Ciais acknowledges support from the European Research Council through Synergy grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 “IMBALANCE-P”. The authors wish to thank M. Jung for providing access to the GPP MTE data, which were downloaded from the GEOCARBON data portal (https://www.bgc-jena.mpg.de/geodb/projects/Data.php). The authors are also grateful to computing support and resources provided at LSCE and to the overall ORCHIDEE project that coordinate the development of the code (http://labex.ipsl.fr/orchidee/index.php/about-the-team).

Iron assimilation by the clam Laternula elliptica from Potter Cove, King Georg Island, Antarctica

Iron stable isotope signatures (d56Fe) in hemolymph (bivalve blood) of the Antarctic bivalve Laternula elliptica were analyzed by Multiple Collector-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS) to test whether the isotopic fingerprint can be tracked back to the predominant sources of the assimilated Fe. An earlier investigation of Fe concentrations in L. elliptica hemolymph suggested that an assimilation of reactive and bioavailable Fe (oxyhydr)oxide particles (i.e. ferrihydrite), precipitated from pore water Fe around the benthic boundary, is responsible for the high Fe concentration in L. elliptica (Poigner et al., 2013, doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2013.10.027). At two stations in Potter Cove (King George Island, Antarctica) bivalve hemolymph showed mean d56Fe values of -1.19 ± 0.34 per mil and -1.04 ± 0.39 per mil, respectively, which is between 0.5 per mil and 0.85 per mil lighter than the pool of easily reducible Fe (oxyhydr)oxides of the surface sediments (-0.3 per mil to -0.6 per mil). This is in agreement with the enrichment of lighter Fe isotopes at higher trophic levels, resulting from the preferential assimilation of light isotopes from nutrition. Nevertheless, d56Fe hemolymph values from both stations showed a high variability, ranging between -0.21 per mil (value close to unaltered/primary Fe(oxyhydr)oxide minerals) and -1.91 per mil (typical for pore water Fe or diagenetic Fe precipitates), which we interpret as a "mixed" d56Fe signature caused by Fe assimilation from different sources with varying Fe contents and d56Fe values. Furthermore, mass dependent Fe fractionation related to physiological processes within the bivalve cannot be ruled out. This is the first study addressing the potential of Fe isotopes for tracing back food sources of bivalves.

How game changers catalyzed, disrupted, and incentivized social innovation: three historical cases of nature conservation, assimilation, and women’s rights

We explore the impact of “game changers” on the dynamics of innovation over time in three problem domains, that of wilderness protection, women’s rights, and assimilation of indigenous children in Canada. Taking a specifically historical and cross-scale approach, we look at one social innovation in each problem domain. We explore the origins and history of the development of the National Parks in the USA, the legalization of contraception in the USA and Canada, and the residential school system in Canada. Based on a comparison of these cases, we identify three kinds of game changers, those that catalyze social innovation, which we define as “seminal,” those that disrupt the continuity of social innovation, which we label exogenous shocks, and those that provide opportunities for novel combinations and recombinations, which we label as endogamous game changers.

Variational ensemble Kalman filtering applied to data assimilation problems in computational fluid dynamics

One challenge on data assimilation (DA) methods is how the error covariance for the model state is computed. Ensemble methods have been proposed for producing error covariance estimates, as error is propagated in time using the non-linear model. Variational methods, on the other hand, use the concepts of control theory, whereby the state estimate is optimized from both the background and the measurements. Numerical optimization schemes are applied which solve the problem of memory storage and huge matrix inversion needed by classical Kalman filter methods. Variational Ensemble Kalman filter (VEnKF), as a method inspired the Variational Kalman Filter (VKF), enjoys the benefits from both ensemble methods and variational methods. It avoids filter inbreeding problems which emerge when the ensemble spread underestimates the true error covariance. In VEnKF this is tackled by resampling the ensemble every time measurements are available. One advantage of VEnKF over VKF is that it needs neither tangent linear code nor adjoint code. In this thesis, VEnKF has been applied to a two-dimensional shallow water model simulating a dam-break experiment. The model is a public code with water height measurements recorded in seven stations along the 21:2 m long 1:4 m wide flume’s mid-line. Because the data were too sparse to assimilate the 30 171 model state vector, we chose to interpolate the data both in time and in space. The results of the assimilation were compared with that of a pure simulation. We have found that the results revealed by the VEnKF were more realistic, without numerical artifacts present in the pure simulation. Creating a wrapper code for a model and DA scheme might be challenging, especially when the two were designed independently or are poorly documented. In this thesis we have presented a non-intrusive approach of coupling the model and a DA scheme. An external program is used to send and receive information between the model and DA procedure using files. The advantage of this method is that the model code changes needed are minimal, only a few lines which facilitate input and output. Apart from being simple to coupling, the approach can be employed even if the two were written in different programming languages, because the communication is not through code. The non-intrusive approach is made to accommodate parallel computing by just telling the control program to wait until all the processes have ended before the DA procedure is invoked. It is worth mentioning the overhead increase caused by the approach, as at every assimilation cycle both the model and the DA procedure have to be initialized. Nonetheless, the method can be an ideal approach for a benchmark platform in testing DA methods. The non-intrusive VEnKF has been applied to a multi-purpose hydrodynamic model COHERENS to assimilate Total Suspended Matter (TSM) in lake Säkylän Pyhäjärvi. The lake has an area of 154 km2 with an average depth of 5:4 m. Turbidity and chlorophyll-a concentrations from MERIS satellite images for 7 days between May 16 and July 6 2009 were available. The effect of the organic matter has been computationally eliminated to obtain TSM data. Because of computational demands from both COHERENS and VEnKF, we have chosen to use 1 km grid resolution. The results of the VEnKF have been compared with the measurements recorded at an automatic station located at the North-Western part of the lake. However, due to TSM data sparsity in both time and space, it could not be well matched. The use of multiple automatic stations with real time data is important to elude the time sparsity problem. With DA, this will help in better understanding the environmental hazard variables for instance. We have found that using a very high ensemble size does not necessarily improve the results, because there is a limit whereby additional ensemble members add very little to the performance. Successful implementation of the non-intrusive VEnKF and the ensemble size limit for performance leads to an emerging area of Reduced Order Modeling (ROM). To save computational resources, running full-blown model in ROM is avoided. When the ROM is applied with the non-intrusive DA approach, it might result in a cheaper algorithm that will relax computation challenges existing in the field of modelling and DA.

How essential are Argo observations to constrain a global ocean data assimilation system?

Observing system experiments (OSEs) are carried out over a 1-year period to quantify the impact of Argo observations on the Mercator Ocean 0.25° global ocean analysis and forecasting system. The reference simulation assimilates sea surface temperature (SST), SSALTO/DUACS (Segment Sol multi-missions dALTimetrie, d'orbitographie et de localisation précise/Data unification and Altimeter combination system) altimeter data and Argo and other in situ observations from the Coriolis data center. Two other simulations are carried out where all Argo and half of the Argo data are withheld. Assimilating Argo observations has a significant impact on analyzed and forecast temperature and salinity fields at different depths. Without Argo data assimilation, large errors occur in analyzed fields as estimated from the differences when compared with in situ observations. For example, in the 0–300 m layer RMS (root mean square) differences between analyzed fields and observations reach 0.25 psu and 1.25 °C in the western boundary currents and 0.1 psu and 0.75 °C in the open ocean. The impact of the Argo data in reducing observation–model forecast differences is also significant from the surface down to a depth of 2000 m. Differences between in situ observations and forecast fields are thus reduced by 20 % in the upper layers and by up to 40 % at a depth of 2000 m when Argo data are assimilated. At depth, the most impacted regions in the global ocean are the Mediterranean outflow, the Gulf Stream region and the Labrador Sea. A significant degradation can be observed when only half of the data are assimilated. Therefore, Argo observations matter to constrain the model solution, even for an eddy-permitting model configuration. The impact of the Argo floats' data assimilation on other model variables is briefly assessed: the improvement of the fit to Argo profiles do not lead globally to unphysical corrections on the sea surface temperature and sea surface height. The main conclusion is that the performance of the Mercator Ocean 0.25° global data assimilation system is heavily dependent on the availability of Argo data.

Assimilation or Transnationalism? Evidence from the Latino National Survey for Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, and South Americans who Immigrated to the USA from 1958 to 2005

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Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests.

The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cy- cle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combina- tion of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 include aboveground wood productivity measure- ments and 35 litter productivity measurements), their asso- ciated canopy photosynthetic capacity (enhanced vegetation index, EVI) and climate, we ask how carbon assimilation and aboveground allocation are related to climate seasonal- ity in tropical forests and how they interact in the seasonal carbon cycle. We found that canopy photosynthetic capacity seasonality responds positively to precipitation when rain- fall is < 2000 mm yr-1 (water-limited forests) and to radia- tion otherwise (light-limited forests). On the other hand, in- dependent of climate limitations, wood productivity and lit- terfall are driven by seasonal variation in precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. Consequently, light-limited forests present an asynchronism between canopy photosyn- thetic capacity and wood productivity. First-order control by precipitation likely indicates a decrease in tropical forest pro- ductivity in a drier climate in water-limited forest, and in cur- rent light-limited forest with future rainfall < 2000 mm yr-1.