The climatology of the middle atmosphere in a vertically extended version of the Met Office's climate model. Part I: mean state

The climatology of a stratosphere-resolving version of the Met Office’s climate model is studied and validated against ECMWF reanalysis data. Ensemble integrations are carried out at two different horizontal resolutions. Along with a realistic climatology and annual cycle in zonal mean zonal wind and temperature, several physical effects are noted in the model. The time of final warming of the winter polar vortex is found to descend monotonically in the Southern Hemisphere, as would be expected for purely radiative forcing. In the Northern Hemisphere, however, the time of final warming is driven largely by dynamical effects in the lower stratosphere and radiative effects in the upper stratosphere, leading to the earliest transition to westward winds being seen in the midstratosphere. A realistic annual cycle in stratospheric water vapor concentrations—the tropical “tape recorder”—is captured. Tropical variability in the zonal mean zonal wind is found to be in better agreement with the reanalysis for the model run at higher horizontal resolution because the simulated quasi-biennial oscillation has a more realistic amplitude. Unexpectedly, variability in the extratropics becomes less realistic under increased resolution because of reduced resolved wave drag and increased orographic gravity wave drag. Overall, the differences in climatology between the simulations at high and moderate horizontal resolution are found to be small.

An analysis of long-term trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics in water quality data from Plynlimon, Wales

This paper examines two hydrochemical time-series derived from stream samples taken in the Upper Hafren catchment, Plynlimon, Wales. One time-series comprises data collected at 7-hour intervals over 22 months (Neal et al., submitted, this issue), while the other is based on weekly sampling over 20 years. A subset of determinands: aluminium, calcium, chloride, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon, iron, nitrate, pH, silicon and sulphate are examined within a framework of non-stationary time-series analysis to identify determinand trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics. The results demonstrate that both long-term and high-frequency monitoring provide valuable and unique insights into the hydrochemistry of a catchment. The long-term data allowed analysis of long-termtrends, demonstrating continued increases in DOC concentrations accompanied by declining SO4 concentrations within the stream, and provided new insights into the changing amplitude and phase of the seasonality of the determinands such as DOC and Al. Additionally, these data proved invaluable for placing the short-term variability demonstrated within the high-frequency data within context. The 7-hour data highlighted complex diurnal cycles for NO3, Ca and Fe with cycles displaying changes in phase and amplitude on a seasonal basis. The high-frequency data also demonstrated the need to consider the impact that the time of sample collection can have on the summary statistics of the data and also that sampling during the hours of darkness provides additional hydrochemical information for determinands which exhibit pronounced diurnal variability. Moving forward, this research demonstrates the need for both long-term and high-frequency monitoring to facilitate a full and accurate understanding of catchment hydrochemical dynamics.

Modelling the impact of land use change on water quality in agricultural catchments

Export coefficient modelling was used to model the impact of agriculture on nitrogen and phosphorus loading on the surface waters of two contrasting agricultural catchments. The model was originally developed for the Windrush catchment where the highly reactive Jurassic limestone aquifer underlying the catchment is well connected to the surface drainage network, allowing the system to be modelled using uniform export coefficients for each nutrient source in the catchment, regardless of proximity to the surface drainage network. In the Slapton catchment, the hydrological path-ways are dominated by surface and lateral shallow subsurface flow, requiring modification of the export coefficient model to incorporate a distance-decay component in the export coefficients. The modified model was calibrated against observed total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads delivered to Slapton Ley from inflowing streams in its catchment. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to isolate the key controls on nutrient export in the modified model. The model was validated against long-term records of water quality, and was found to be accurate in its predictions and sensitive to both temporal and spatial changes in agricultural practice in the catchment. The model was then used to forecast the potential reduction in nutrient loading on Slapton Ley associated with a range of catchment management strategies. The best practicable environmental option (BPEO) was found to be spatial redistribution of high nutrient export risk sources to areas of the catchment with the greatest intrinsic nutrient retention capacity.

A benchmark-driven modelling approach for evaluating deployment choices on a multicore architecture

The complexity of current and emerging high performance architectures provides users with options about how best to use the available resources, but makes predicting performance challenging. In this work a benchmark-driven performance modelling approach is outlined that is appro- priate for modern multicore architectures. The approach is demonstrated by constructing a model of a simple shallow water code on a Cray XE6 system, from application-specific benchmarks that illustrate precisely how architectural char- acteristics impact performance. The model is found to recre- ate observed scaling behaviour up to 16K cores, and used to predict optimal rank-core affinity strategies, exemplifying the type of problem such a model can be used for.

Development of frazil modelling in ice shelf water plumes

Abstract Preliminary results are presented from a modelling study directed at the spatial variation of frazil ice formation and its effects on flow underneath large ice shelves. The chosen plume and frazil models are briefly introduced, and results from two simplified cases are outlined. It is found that growth and melting dominate the frazil model in the short term. Secondary nucleation converts larger crystals into several nuclei due to crystal collisions (microattrition) and fluid shear and therefore governs the ice crystal dynamics after the initial supercooling has been quenched. Frazil formation is found to have a significant depth-dependence in an idealised study of an Ice Shelf Water plume. Finally, plans for more extensive and realistic studies are discussed.

A benchmark-driven modelling approach for evaluating deployment choices on a multi-core architecture

The complexity of current and emerging architectures provides users with options about how best to use the available resources, but makes predicting performance challenging. In this work a benchmark-driven model is developed for a simple shallow water code on a Cray XE6 system, to explore how deployment choices such as domain decomposition and core affinity affect performance. The resource sharing present in modern multi-core architectures adds various levels of heterogeneity to the system. Shared resources often includes cache, memory, network controllers and in some cases floating point units (as in the AMD Bulldozer), which mean that the access time depends on the mapping of application tasks, and the core's location within the system. Heterogeneity further increases with the use of hardware-accelerators such as GPUs and the Intel Xeon Phi, where many specialist cores are attached to general-purpose cores. This trend for shared resources and non-uniform cores is expected to continue into the exascale era. The complexity of these systems means that various runtime scenarios are possible, and it has been found that under-populating nodes, altering the domain decomposition and non-standard task to core mappings can dramatically alter performance. To find this out, however, is often a process of trial and error. To better inform this process, a performance model was developed for a simple regular grid-based kernel code, shallow. The code comprises two distinct types of work, loop-based array updates and nearest-neighbour halo-exchanges. Separate performance models were developed for each part, both based on a similar methodology. Application specific benchmarks were run to measure performance for different problem sizes under different execution scenarios. These results were then fed into a performance model that derives resource usage for a given deployment scenario, with interpolation between results as necessary.

Drinking water application of Denargard Tiamulin for control of Brachyspira pilosicoli infection of laying poultry

Avian intestinal spirochaetosis (AIS) caused by Brachyspira spp., and notably Brachyspira pilosicoli, is common in layer flocks and reportedly of increasing incidence in broilers and broiler breeders. Disease manifests as diar- rhoea, increased feed consumption, reduced growth rates and occasional mortality in broilers and these signs are shown in layers also associated with a delayed onset of lay, reduced egg weights, faecal staining of eggshells and non-productive ovaries. Treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin has been used to protect against B. pilosicoli colonisation, persistence and clinical presentation of AIS in commercial layers, but to date there has been no de- finitive study validating efficacy. Here, we used a poultry model of B. pilosicoli infection of layers to compare the impact of three doses of Denagard® Tiamulin. Four groups of thirty 17 week old commercial pre-lay birds were all challenged with B. pilosicoli strain B2904 with three oral doses two days apart. All birds were colonised within 2 days after the final oral challenge and mild onset of clinical signs were observed thereafter. A fifth group that was unchallenged and untreated was also included for comparison as healthy birds. Five days after the final oral Brachypira challenge three groups were given Denagard® Tiamulin in drinking water made up following the manufacturer's recommendations with doses verified as 58.7 ppm, 113 ppm and 225 ppm. Weight gain body condition and the level of diarrhoea of birds infected with B. pilosicoli were improved and shedding of the organism reduced significantly (p = 0.001) following treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin irrespective of dose given. The level and duration of colonisation of organs of birds infected with B. pilosicoli was also reduced. Confirming previous findings we showed that the ileum, caeca, colon, and both liver and spleen were colonised and here we demonstrated that treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin resulted in significant reduction in the numbers of Brachyspira found in each of these sites and dramatic reduction in faecal shedding (p b 0.001) to ap- proaching zero as assessed by culture of cloacal swabs. Although the number of eggs produced per bird and the level of eggshell staining appeared unaffected, egg weights of treated birds were greater than those of untreated birds for a period of approximately two weeks following treatment. These data conclusively demonstrate the ef- fectiveness of Denagard® Tiamulin in reducing B. pilosicoli infection in laying hens.

Drinking water application of Denagard® Tiamulin for control of Brachyspira pilosicoli infection of laying poultry

Avian intestinal spirochaetosis (AIS) caused by Brachyspira spp., and notably Brachyspira pilosicoli, is common in layer flocks and reportedly of increasing incidence in broilers and broiler breeders. Disease manifests as diarrhoea,increased feed consumption, reduced growth rates and occasional mortality in broilers and these signs are shown in layers also associated with a delayed onset of lay, reduced egg weights, faecal staining of eggshells and non-productive ovaries. Treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin has been used to protect against B. pilosicoli colonisation, persistence and clinical presentation of AIS in commercial layers, but to date there has been no definitive study validating efficacy. Here, we used a poultry model of B. pilosicoli infection of layers to compare the impact of three doses of Denagard® Tiamulin. Four groups of thirty 17 week old commercial pre-lay birds were all challengedwith B. pilosicoli strain B2904with three oral doses two days apart. All birdswere colonised within 2 days after the final oral challenge and mild onset of clinical signs were observed thereafter. A fifth group that was unchallenged and untreated was also included for comparison as healthy birds. Five days after the final oral Brachypira challenge three groups were given Denagard® Tiamulin in drinking water made up following the manufacturer's recommendations with doses verified as 58.7 ppm, 113 ppm and 225 ppm. Weight gain body condition and the level of diarrhoea of birds infected with B. pilosicoli were improved and shedding of the organism reduced significantly (p = 0.001) following treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin irrespective of dose given. The level and duration of colonisation of organs of birds infected with B. pilosicoli was also reduced. Confirming previous findings we showed that the ileum, caeca, colon, and both liver and spleen were colonised and here we demonstrated that treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin resulted in significant reduction in the numbers of Brachyspira found in each of these sites and dramatic reduction in faecal shedding (p b 0.001) to approaching zero as assessed by culture of cloacal swabs. Although the number of eggs produced per bird and the level of eggshell staining appeared unaffected, egg weights of treated birds were greater than those of untreated birds for a period of approximately two weeks following treatment. These data conclusively demonstrate the effectiveness of Denagard® Tiamulin in reducing B. pilosicoli infection in laying hens.

Application of chemometric methods in the evaluation of chemical and spectroscopic data on organic matter from Oxisols in sewage sludge applications

Chemometric methods can contribute to soil research by permitting the extraction of more information from the data. The aim of this work was to use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate data obtained through chemical and spectroscopic methods on the changes in the humification process of soil organic matter from two tropical soils after sewage sludge application. In this case, humic acids extracted from Typic Eutrorthox and Typic Haplorthox soils with and without sewage sludge application for 7 consecutive years were studied. The results obtained for all of the samples and methods showed two clusters: samples extracted from the two soil types. These expected results indicated the textural difference between the two soils was more significant than the differences between treatments (control and sewage sludge application) or between depths. In this case, an individual chemometric treatment was made for each type of soil. It was noted that the characterization of the humic acids extracted from soils with and without sewage sludge application after 7 consecutive years using several methods supplies important results about changes in the humification degree of soil organic matter, These important result obtained by Principal Component Analysis justify further research using these methods to characterize the changes in the humic acids extracted from sewage sludge-amended soils. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Application Of Renewable Energy For Prefab Houses In Germany

Within the framework of the REBUS project the German building industry has been investigated regarding their energy concepts. The intention was to evaluatethe establishment of renewable energy sources on the German market for new built houses and prefab houses in particular. For this purpose the products of 85manufacturers of prefab houses have been analyzed. Of special interest was the applicationof heating and hot water systems driven by solar energy and biomass. The results show that both techniques are well accepted and established. Almost 90% of themanufacturers offer solar systems on request and almost 70% heating systems based on Pellets. 24% offered solar and 7% as standard options in their range. From theachieved figures the potential of the Swedish market can be worked out. Strategies to introduce renewable energy to a greater extent to Swedish house manufacturers and builders might also be found.

System Integration of PV/T Collectors in Solar Cooling Systems

The demand for cooling and air-conditioning of building is increasingly ever growing. This increase is mostly due to population and economic growth in developing countries, and also desire for a higher quality of thermal comfort. Increase in the use of conventional cooling systems results in larger carbon footprint and more greenhouse gases considering their higher electricity consumption, and it occasionally creates peaks in electricity demand from power supply grid. Solar energy as a renewable energy source is an alternative to drive the cooling machines since the cooling load is generally high when solar radiation is high. This thesis examines the performance of PV/T solar collector manufactured by Solarus company in a solar cooling system for an office building in Dubai, New Delhi, Los Angeles and Cape Town. The study is carried out by analyzing climate data and the requirements for thermal comfort in office buildings. Cooling systems strongly depend on weather conditions and local climate. Cooling load of buildings depend on many parameters such as ambient temperature, indoor comfort temperature, solar gain to the building and internal gains including; number of occupant and electrical devices. The simulations were carried out by selecting a suitable thermally driven chiller and modeling it with PV/T solar collector in Polysun software. Fractional primary energy saving and solar fraction were introduced as key figures of the project to evaluate the performance of cooling system. Several parametric studies and simulations were determined according to PV/T aperture area and hot water storage tank volume. The fractional primary energy saving analysis revealed that thermally driven chillers, particularly adsorption chillers are not suitable to be utilizing in small size of solar cooling systems in hot and tropic climates such as Dubai and New Delhi. Adsorption chillers require more thermal energy to meet the cooling load in hot and dry climates. The adsorption chillers operate in their full capacity and in higher coefficient of performance when they run in a moderate climate since they can properly reject the exhaust heat. The simulation results also indicated that PV/T solar collector have higher efficiency in warmer climates, however it requires a larger size of PV/T collectors to supply the thermally driven chillers for providing cooling in hot climates. Therefore using an electrical chiller as backup gives much better results in terms of primary energy savings, since PV/T electrical production also can be used for backup electrical chiller in a net metering mechanism.

A data driven approach for automating vehicle activated signs

Vehicle activated signs (VAS) display a warning message when drivers exceed a particular threshold. VAS are often installed on local roads to display a warning message depending on the speed of the approaching vehicles. VAS are usually powered by electricity; however, battery and solar powered VAS are also commonplace. This thesis investigated devel-opment of an automatic trigger speed of vehicle activated signs in order to influence driver behaviour, the effect of which has been measured in terms of reduced mean speed and low standard deviation. A comprehen-sive understanding of the effectiveness of the trigger speed of the VAS on driver behaviour was established by systematically collecting data. Specif-ically, data on time of day, speed, length and direction of the vehicle have been collected for the purpose, using Doppler radar installed at the road. A data driven calibration method for the radar used in the experiment has also been developed and evaluated. Results indicate that trigger speed of the VAS had variable effect on driv-ers’ speed at different sites and at different times of the day. It is evident that the optimal trigger speed should be set near the 85th percentile speed, to be able to lower the standard deviation. In the case of battery and solar powered VAS, trigger speeds between the 50th and 85th per-centile offered the best compromise between safety and power consump-tion. Results also indicate that different classes of vehicles report differ-ences in mean speed and standard deviation; on a highway, the mean speed of cars differs slightly from the mean speed of trucks, whereas a significant difference was observed between the classes of vehicles on lo-cal roads. A differential trigger speed was therefore investigated for the sake of completion. A data driven approach using Random forest was found to be appropriate in predicting trigger speeds respective to types of vehicles and traffic conditions. The fact that the predicted trigger speed was found to be consistently around the 85th percentile speed justifies the choice of the automatic model.

Application Of Real-Time Control Strategy To Improve Nitrogen Removal In Wastewater Treatment

Biological nitrogen removal is an important task in the wastewater treatment. However, the actual removal of total nitrogen (TN) in the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) is often unsatisfactory due to several causes, one of which is the insufficient availability of carbon source. One possible approach to improve the nitrogen removal therefore is addition of external carbon source, while the amount of which is directly related to operation cost of a WWTP. It is obviously necessary to determine the accurate amount of addition of external carbon source according to the demand depending on the influent wastewater quality. This study focused on the real-time control of external carbon source addition based on the on-line monitoring of influent wastewater quality. The relationship between the influent wastewater quality (specifically the concentration of COD and ammonia) and the demand of carbon source was investigated through experiments on a pilot-scale A/O reactor (1m3) at the Nanjing WWTP, China. The minimum doses of carbon source addition at different situations of influent wastewater quality were determined to ensure the effluent wastewater quality meets the discharge standard. The obtained relationship is expected to be applied in the full-scale WWTPs. .

Application of chemometric methods in the evaluation of chemical and spectroscopic data on organic matter from Oxisols in sewage sludge applications

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)