Agent-based model to rural-urban migration analysis

In this paper, we analyze the rural-urban migration phenomenon as it is usually observed in economies which are in the early stages of industrialization. The analysis is conducted by means of a statistical mechanics approach which builds a computational agent-based model. Agents are placed on a lattice and the connections among them are described via an Ising-like model. Simulations on this computational model show some emergent properties that are common in developing economies, such as a transitional dynamics characterized by continuous growth of urban population, followed by the equalization of expected wages between rural and urban sectors (Harris-Todaro equilibrium condition), urban concentration and increasing of per capita income. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic correlations between categorical morphological traits in Nelore cattle by applying Bayesian analysis under a threshold animal model

P>In this study, Bayesian analysis under a threshold animal model was used to estimate genetic correlations between morphological traits (body structure, finishing precocity and muscling) in Nelore cattle evaluated at weaning and yearling. Visual scores obtained from 7651 Nelore cattle at weaning and from 4155 animals at yearling, belonging to the Brazilian Nelore Program, were used. Genetic parameters for the morphological traits were estimated by two-trait Bayesian analysis under a threshold animal model. The genetic correlations between the morphological traits evaluated at two ages of the animal (weaning and yearling) were positive and high for body structure (0.91), finishing precocity (0.96) and muscling (0.94). These results indicate that the traits are mainly determined by the same set of genes of additive action and that direct selection at weaning will also result in genetic progress for the same traits at yearling. Thus, selection of the best genotypes during only one phase of life of the animal is suggested. However, genetic differences between morphological traits were better detected during the growth phase to yearling. Direct selection for body structure, finishing precocity and muscling at only one age, preferentially at yearling, is recommended as genetic differences between traits can be detected at this age.

A Bayesian Analysis of Spectral ARMA Model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Theoretical model and experimental analysis of glulam beam reinforced with FRP

This work present a study of glulam beams reinforced with FRP. It was developed a theoretical model that calculates strength and stiffness of the beams. The model allows for the calculation of the bending moment, the hypothetical distribution of linear strains along the height of the beam, and considers the wood has a linear elastic fragile behavior in tension parallel to the fibers and bilinear in compression parallel to the fibers, initially elastic and subsequently inelastic, with a negative decline in the stress-strain diagram. The stiffness was calculated by the transformed section method. Twelve non-reinforced and fiberglass reinforced glulam beams were evaluated experimentally to validate the proposed theoretical model. The results obtained indicate good congruence between the experimental and theoretical values.

Experimental analysis and adherence test of the electromagnetic zero-sequence blocking model

This paper reveals new contributions to the analysis and development of mitigating harmonic distortion devices. Considering the variety of sequential distribution of harmonic current, in the use of passive filters, one can point out the electromagnetic blocking device, which have received particular attention due to its robustness and low cost of installation. In this context, aiming the evaluation of the reliability of the results obtained through mathematical modeling, experimental tests are carried out using a low-power prototype, highlighting particular aspects related to its function as a zero-sequence harmonic blocking. © 2011 IEEE.

Chemometric analysis of Hymenoptera toxins and defensins: A model for predicting the biological activity of novel peptides from venoms and hemolymph

When searching for prospective novel peptides, it is difficult to determine the biological activity of a peptide based only on its sequence. The trial and error approach is generally laborious, expensive and time consuming due to the large number of different experimental setups required to cover a reasonable number of biological assays. To simulate a virtual model for Hymenoptera insects, 166 peptides were selected from the venoms and hemolymphs of wasps, bees and ants and applied to a mathematical model of multivariate analysis, with nine different chemometric components: GRAVY, aliphaticity index, number of disulfide bonds, total residues, net charge, pI value, Boman index, percentage of alpha helix, and flexibility prediction. Principal component analysis (PCA) with non-linear iterative projections by alternating least-squares (NIPALS) algorithm was performed, without including any information about the biological activity of the peptides. This analysis permitted the grouping of peptides in a way that strongly correlated to the biological function of the peptides. Six different groupings were observed, which seemed to correspond to the following groups: chemotactic peptides, mastoparans, tachykinins, kinins, antibiotic peptides, and a group of long peptides with one or two disulfide bonds and with biological activities that are not yet clearly defined. The partial overlap between the mastoparans group and the chemotactic peptides, tachykinins, kinins and antibiotic peptides in the PCA score plot may be used to explain the frequent reports in the literature about the multifunctionality of some of these peptides. The mathematical model used in the present investigation can be used to predict the biological activities of novel peptides in this system, and it may also be easily applied to other biological systems. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.

Analysis of the lightning attractive radius of power transmission lines through the use of a physically-oriented model

Models of different degrees of complexity are found in the literature for the estimation of lightning striking distances and attractive radius of objects and structures. However, besides the oversimplifications of the physical nature of the lightning discharge on which most of them are based, till recently the tridimensional structure configuration could not be considered. This is an important limitation, as edges and other details of the object affect the electric field and, consequently, the upward leader initiation. Within this context, the Self-consistent leader initiation and propagation model (SLIM) proposed by Becerra and Cooray is state-of-the-art leader inception and propagation leader model based on the physics of leader discharges which enables the tridimensional geometry of the structure to be taken into account. In this paper, the model is used for estimating the striking distance and attractive radius of power transmission lines. The results are compared with those obtained from the electrogeometric and Eriksson's models. © 2003-2012 IEEE.

An analysis of economic and social development in Barbados: a model for Small Island Developing States

Includes bibliography

Demographic, economic-demographic and other demographically related model: an analysis

Includes bibliography

Analysis of Lattice Size, Energy Density and Denaturation for a One-Dimensional DNA Model

There are several mechanical models to describe the DNA phenomenology. In this work the DNA denaturation is stu- died under thermodynamical and dynamical point of view using the well known Peyrard-Bishop model. The thermody-namics analysis using the transfer integral operator method is briefly reviewed. In particular, the lattice size is discussed and a conjecture about the minimum energy to denaturation is proposed. In terms of the dynamical aspects of the model, the equations of motion for the system are integrated and the results determine the energy density where the denatura- tion occurs. The behavior of the lattice near the phase transition is analyzed. The relation between the thermodynamical and dynamical results is discussed.

Bayesian age and growth analysis of the shortfin mako shark Isurus oxyrinchus in the Western South Atlantic Ocean using a flexible model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Analysis of effectiveness of three forest interventionist techniques and proposal of a new and integrated model of forest restoration

We assessed the efficacy of three different forest intervention techniques, in terms of phytosociological and edaphic responses, that were implemented in 2007. In a farm where trees are planted and managed for cellulose production as well as set aside for environmental conservation, four stands were analysed: three of them were considered degraded and were managed using different intervention techniques (transposition, perch, and abandonment), and a fourth stand comprising pristine vegetation was considered a control (reference). Floristic and phytosociology data were collected in three 10 × 10 m plots established in each stand. Also, a total of 48 soil samples were collected to analyse physical and chemical attributes of the topsoil for the different stands. In terms of biodiversity, all the treatments showed significantly lower values when compared to the reference area. However, the soils in all the treatment and reference stands are similar in terms of physical and chemical attributes. Taking into account the specificities of each restoration technique, we verified that the integrated use of a set of management practices, constituted by the (1) abandonment of the area and (2) following a selective killing of the eucalyptus, is the most suitable and promising model to provide fast and effective restoration in terms of environmental indicators.

A mixed model QTL analysis for sugarcane multiple-harvest-location trial data

Sugarcane-breeding programs take at least 12 years to develop new commercial cultivars. Molecular markers offer a possibility to study the genetic architecture of quantitative traits in sugarcane, and they may be used in marker-assisted selection to speed up artificial selection. Although the performance of sugarcane progenies in breeding programs are commonly evaluated across a range of locations and harvest years, many of the QTL detection methods ignore two- and three-way interactions between QTL, harvest, and location. In this work, a strategy for QTL detection in multi-harvest-location trial data, based on interval mapping and mixed models, is proposed and applied to map QTL effects on a segregating progeny from a biparental cross of pre-commercial Brazilian cultivars, evaluated at two locations and three consecutive harvest years for cane yield (tonnes per hectare), sugar yield (tonnes per hectare), fiber percent, and sucrose content. In the mixed model, we have included appropriate (co)variance structures for modeling heterogeneity and correlation of genetic effects and non-genetic residual effects. Forty-six QTLs were found: 13 QTLs for cane yield, 14 for sugar yield, 11 for fiber percent, and 8 for sucrose content. In addition, QTL by harvest, QTL by location, and QTL by harvest by location interaction effects were significant for all evaluated traits (30 QTLs showed some interaction, and 16 none). Our results contribute to a better understanding of the genetic architecture of complex traits related to biomass production and sucrose content in sugarcane.

Fuzzy linguistic model for bioelectrical impedance vector analysis

Backgrounds Ea aims: The boundaries between the categories of body composition provided by vectorial analysis of bioimpedance are not well defined. In this paper, fuzzy sets theory was used for modeling such uncertainty. Methods: An Italian database with 179 cases 18-70 years was divided randomly into developing (n = 20) and testing samples (n = 159). From the 159 registries of the testing sample, 99 contributed with unequivocal diagnosis. Resistance/height and reactance/height were the input variables in the model. Output variables were the seven categories of body composition of vectorial analysis. For each case the linguistic model estimated the membership degree of each impedance category. To compare such results to the previously established diagnoses Kappa statistics was used. This demanded singling out one among the output set of seven categories of membership degrees. This procedure (defuzzification rule) established that the category with the highest membership degree should be the most likely category for the case. Results: The fuzzy model showed a good fit to the development sample. Excellent agreement was achieved between the defuzzified impedance diagnoses and the clinical diagnoses in the testing sample (Kappa = 0.85, p < 0.001). Conclusions: fuzzy linguistic model was found in good agreement with clinical diagnoses. If the whole model output is considered, information on to which extent each BIVA category is present does better advise clinical practice with an enlarged nosological framework and diverse therapeutic strategies. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian analysis of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson cure rate model

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for the right-censored survival data when immune or cured individuals may be present in the population from which the data is taken. In our approach the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution which generalizes the Poisson distribution. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a real data set are considered.