Size matters: plasticity in metabolic scaling shows body-size may modulate responses to climate change

Variability in metabolic scaling in animals, the relationship between metabolic rate ( R) and body mass ( M), has been a source of debate and controversy for decades. R is proportional to Mb, the precise value of b much debated, but historically considered equal in all organisms. Recent metabolic theory, however, predicts b to vary among species with ecology and metabolic level, and may also vary within species under different abiotic conditions. Under climate change, most species will experience increased temperatures, and marine organisms will experience the additional stressor of decreased seawater pH ('ocean acidification'). Responses to these environmental changes are modulated by myriad species-specific factors. Body-size is a fundamental biological parameter, but its modulating role is relatively unexplored. Here, we show that changes to metabolic scaling reveal asymmetric responses to stressors across body-size ranges; b is systematically decreased under increasing temperature in three grazing molluscs, indicating smaller individuals were more responsive to warming. Larger individuals were, however, more responsive to reduced seawater pH in low temperatures. These alterations to the allometry of metabolism highlight abiotic control of metabolic scaling, and indicate that responses to climate warming and ocean acidification may be modulated by body-size.

TTIP and Climate Change – How real are Race to the Bottom Concerns?

This paper examines concerns about the impact that TTIP could have on existing and future climate policies and laws from the inclusion of provisions on investment protection including investor-to-State dispute settlement (ISDS), the reduction of non-tariff barriers and the introduction of rules for trade in energy and raw materials. It argues that from an environmental perspective, ISDS should not necessarily be seen as a regime that goes against the defence of the environment or prevention of climate change. Although it might be used to challenge policies of an EU home State that increase levels of environmental protection, it can also be used to contest changes in an EU home State’s environmental policies that would reduce the protection of the environment, if foreign investment is affected. To a large extent, this also holds true for other areas of TTIP negotiations. While the achievement of a balance between rules that promote trade and those that maintain policy space for governments to respond to environmental concerns has to be closely monitored, benefits for climate could be seized from harmonisation of carbon laws at the level of the strictest regulations of two parties, provisions that promote trade in low carbon technologies and renewable energy and bilateral cooperation on climate change.

Political economy of low sulfurization and air pollution control policy in Japan : SOx emission reduction by fuel conversion

In the early stages of the development of Japan’s environmental policy, sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions, which seriously damage health, was the most important air pollution problem. In the second half of the 1960s and the first half of the 1970s, the measures against SOx emissions progressed quickly, and these emissions were reduced drastically. The most important factor of the reduction was the conversion to a low-sulfur fuel for large-scale fuel users, such as the electric power industry. However, industries started conversion to low-sulfur fuel not due to environmental concerns, but simply to reduce costs. Furthermore, the interaction among the various interests of the electric power industry, oil refineries, the central government, local governments, and citizens over the energy and environmental policies led to the measures against SOx emissions by fuel conversion.

Climate change technology transfer to developing countries: evidence analysis and policy recommendations

Developing countries are experiencing unprecedented levels of economic growth. As a result, they will be responsible for most of the future growth in energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Curbing GHG emissions in developing countries has become one of the cornerstones of a future international agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, setting caps for developing countries’ GHG emissions has encountered strong resistance in the current round of negotiations. Continued economic growth that allows poverty eradication is still the main priority for most developing countries, and caps are perceived as a constraint to future growth prospects. The development, transfer and use of low-carbon technologies have more positive connotations, and are seen as the potential path towards low-carbon development. So far, the success of the UNFCCC process in improving the levels of technology transfer (TT) to developing countries has been limited. This thesis analyses the causes for such limited success and seeks to improve on the understanding about what constitutes TT in the field of climate change, establish the factors that enable them in developing countries and determine which policies could be implemented to reinforce these factors. Despite the wide recognition of the importance of technology and knowledge transfer to developing countries in the climate change mitigation policy agenda, this issue has not received sufficient attention in academic research. Current definitions of climate change TT barely take into account the perspective of actors involved in actual climate change TT activities, while respective measurements do not bear in mind the diversity of channels through which these happen and the outputs and effects that they convey. Furthermore, the enabling factors for TT in non-BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) developing countries have been seldom investigated, and policy recommendations to improve the level and quality of TTs to developing countries have not been adapted to the specific needs of highly heterogeneous countries, commonly denominated as “developing countries”. This thesis contributes to enriching the climate change TT debate from the perspective of a smaller emerging economy (Chile) and by undertaking a quantitative analysis of enabling factors for TT in a large sample of developing countries. Two methodological approaches are used to study climate change TT: comparative case study analysis and quantitative analysis. Comparative case studies analyse TT processes in ten cases based in Chile, all of which share the same economic, technological and policy frameworks, thus enabling us to draw conclusions on the enabling factors and obstacles operating in TT processes. The quantitative analysis uses three methodologies – principal component analysis, multiple regression analysis and cluster analysis – to assess the performance of developing countries in a number of enabling factors and the relationship between these factors and indicators of TT, as well as to create groups of developing countries with similar performances. The findings of this thesis are structured to provide responses to four main research questions: What constitutes technology transfer and how does it happen? Is it possible to measure technology transfer, and what are the main challenges in doing so? Which factors enable climate change technology transfer to developing countries? And how do different developing countries perform in these enabling factors, and how can differentiated policy priorities be defined accordingly? vi Resumen Los paises en desarrollo estan experimentando niveles de crecimiento economico sin precedentes. Como consecuencia, se espera que sean responsables de la mayor parte del futuro crecimiento global en demanda energetica y emisiones de Gases de Efecto de Invernadero (GEI). Reducir las emisiones de GEI en los paises en desarrollo es por tanto uno de los pilares de un futuro acuerdo internacional en el marco de la Convencion Marco de las Naciones Unidas para el Cambio Climatico (UNFCCC). La posibilidad de compromisos vinculantes de reduccion de emisiones de GEI ha sido rechazada por los paises en desarrollo, que perciben estos limites como frenos a su desarrollo economico y a su prioridad principal de erradicacion de la pobreza. El desarrollo, transferencia y uso de tecnologias bajas en carbono tiene connotaciones mas positivas y se percibe como la via hacia un crecimiento bajo en carbono. Hasta el momento, la UNFCCC ha tenido un exito limitado en la promocion de transferencias de tecnologia (TT) a paises en desarrollo. Esta tesis analiza las causas de este resultado y busca mejorar la comprension sobre que constituye transferencia de tecnologia en el area de cambio climatico, cuales son los factores que la facilitan en paises en desarrollo y que politicas podrian implementarse para reforzar dichos factores. A pesar del extendido reconocimiento sobre la importancia de la transferencia de tecnologia a paises en desarrollo en la agenda politica de cambio climatico, esta cuestion no ha sido suficientemente atendida por la investigacion existente. Las definiciones actuales de transferencia de tecnologia relacionada con la mitigacion del cambio climatico no tienen en cuenta la diversidad de canales por las que se manifiestan o los efectos que consiguen. Los factores facilitadores de TT en paises en desarrollo no BRIC (Brasil, Rusia, India y China) apenas han sido investigados, y las recomendaciones politicas para aumentar el nivel y la calidad de la TT no se han adaptado a las necesidades especificas de paises muy heterogeneos aglutinados bajo el denominado grupo de "paises en desarrollo". Esta tesis contribuye a enriquecer el debate sobre la TT de cambio climatico con la perspectiva de una economia emergente de pequeno tamano (Chile) y el analisis cuantitativo de factores que facilitan la TT en una amplia muestra de paises en desarrollo. Se utilizan dos metodologias para el estudio de la TT a paises en desarrollo: analisis comparativo de casos de estudio y analisis cuantitativo basado en metodos multivariantes. Los casos de estudio analizan procesos de TT en diez casos basados en Chile, para derivar conclusiones sobre los factores que facilitan u obstaculizan el proceso de transferencia. El analisis cuantitativo multivariante utiliza tres metodologias: regresion multiple, analisis de componentes principales y analisis cluster. Con dichas metodologias se busca analizar el posicionamiento de diversos paises en cuanto a factores que facilitan la TT; las relaciones entre dichos factores e indicadores de transferencia tecnologica; y crear grupos de paises con caracteristicas similares que podrian beneficiarse de politicas similares para la promocion de la transferencia de tecnologia. Los resultados de la tesis se estructuran en torno a cuatro preguntas de investigacion: .Que es la transferencia de tecnologia y como ocurre?; .Es posible medir la transferencia de tecnologias de bajo carbono?; .Que factores facilitan la transferencia de tecnologias de bajo carbono a paises en desarrollo? y .Como se puede agrupar a los paises en desarrollo en funcion de sus necesidades politicas para la promocion de la transferencia de tecnologias de bajo carbono?

Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, select alternatives and development of plans for adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it.

There is evidence that the climate changes and that now, the change is influenced and accelerated by the CO2 augmentation in atmosphere due to combustion by humans. Such ?Climate change? is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most countries and international organisms UNO (e.g. Rio de Janeiro 1992), OECD, EC, etc . . . the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. The Protocol of Kyoto 1997 set international efforts about CO2 emissions, but it was partial and not followed e.g. by USA and China . . . , and in Durban 2011 the ineffectiveness of humanity on such global real challenges was set as evident. Among all that, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs, and the authors propose to enter in that frame for study. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model must help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, which will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly in especially vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will consider criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion) and environmental, at the present moment and the future. The intention is to obtain tools for aiding to get a realistic position for these challenges, which are an important part of the future problems of humanity in next decades.

A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe

The effects of climate change will be felt by most farmers in Europe over the next decades. This study provides consistent results of the impact of climate change on arable agriculture in Europe by using high resolution climate data, socio-economic data, and impact assessment models, including farmer adaptation. All scenarios are consistent with the spatial distribution of effects, exacerbating regional disparities and current vulnerability to climate. Since the results assume no restrictions on the use of water for irrigation or on the application of agrochemicals, they may be considered optimistic from the production point of view and somewhat pessimistic from the environmental point of view. The results provide an estimate of the regional economic impact of climate change, as well as insights into the importance of mitigation and adaptation policies.

Facing the climate change challenges in the mining and mineral industry as providers of a sustainable manufacturing process

A sustainable manufacturing process must rely on an also sustainable raw materials and energy supply. This paper is intended to show the results of the studies developed on sustainable business models for the minerals industry as a fundamental previous part of a sustainable manufacturing process. As it has happened in other economic activities, the mining and minerals industry has come under tremendous pressure to improve its social, developmental, and environmental performance. Mining, refining, and the use and disposal of minerals have in some instances led to significant local environmental and social damage. Nowadays, like in other parts of the corporate world, companies are more routinely expected to perform to ever higher standards of behavior, going well beyond achieving the best rate of return for shareholders. They are also increasingly being asked to be more transparent and subject to third-party audit or review, especially in environmental aspects. In terms of environment, there are three inter-related areas where innovation and new business models can make the biggest difference: carbon, water and biodiversity. The focus in these three areas is for two reasons. First, the industrial and energetic minerals industry has significant footprints in each of these areas. Second, these three areas are where the potential environmental impacts go beyond local stakeholders and communities, and can even have global impacts, like in the case of carbon. So prioritizing efforts in these areas will ultimately be a strategic differentiator as the industry businesses continues to grow. Over the next forty years, world?s population is predicted to rise from 6.300 million to 9.500 million people. This will mean a huge demand of natural resources. Indeed, consumption rates are such that current demand for raw materials will probably soon exceed the planet?s capacity. As awareness of the actual situation grows, the public is demanding goods and services that are even more environmentally sustainable. This means that massive efforts are required to reduce the amount of materials we use, including freshwater, minerals and oil, biodiversity, and marine resources. It?s clear that business as usual is no longer possible. Today, companies face not only the economic fallout of the financial crisis; they face the substantial challenge of transitioning to a low-carbon economy that is constrained by dwindling natural resources easily accessible. Innovative business models offer pioneering companies an early start toward the future. They can signal to consumers how to make sustainable choices and provide reward for both the consumer and the shareholder. Climate change and carbon remain major risk discontinuities that we need to better understand and deal with. In the absence of a global carbon solution, the principal objective of any individual country should be to reduce its global carbon emissions by encouraging conservation. The mineral industry internal response is to continue to focus on reducing the energy intensity of our existing operations through energy efficiency and the progressive introduction of new technology. Planning of the new projects must ensure that their energy footprint is minimal from the start. These actions will increase the long term resilience of the business to uncertain energy and carbon markets. This focus, combined with a strong demand for skills in this strategic area for the future requires an appropriate change in initial and continuing training of engineers and technicians and their awareness of the issue of eco-design. It will also need the development of measurement tools for consistent comparisons between companies and the assessments integration of the carbon footprint of mining equipments and services in a comprehensive impact study on the sustainable development of the Economy.

Effectiveness of improved cookstoves to reduce indoor air pollution in developing countries. The case of the cassamance natural subregion, Western Africa

The Spanish NGO "Alianza por la Solidaridad" has installed improved cookstoves in 3000 households during 2012 and 2013 to improve energy efficiency reducing fuelwood consumption and to improve in-door air quality. The type of cookstoves were Noflaye Jeeg and Noflaye Jaboot and were installed in the Cassamance Natural Subregion covering part of Senegal, The Gambia and Guinea-Bissau. The Technical University of Madrid (UPM) has conducted a field study on a sample of these households to assess the effect of improved cookstoves on kitchen air quality. Measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and fine particle matter (PM2.5) were taken for 24-hr period before and after the installation of improved cook-stoves. The 24-hr mean CO concentrations were lower than the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for Guinea-Bissau but higher for Senegal and Gambia, even after the installation of improved cookstoves. As for PM2.5 concentrations, 24-hr mean were always higher than these guidelines. However, improved cookstoves produced significant reductions on 24-hr mean CO and PM2.5 concentrations in Senegal and for mean and maximum PM2.5 concentration on Gambia. Although this variability needs to be explained by further research to determine which other factors could affect indoor air pollution, the study provided a better understanding of the problem and envisaged alternatives to be implemented in fu-ture phases of the NGO project.

Analyzing adaptation to climate change in the water and the agricultural sectors in the Spanish Guadiana basin.

1. Introduction: setting and problem definition 2. The Adaptation Pathway –2.1 Stage 1: appraising risks and opportunities •Step 1: Impact analysis •Step 2: Policy analysis •Step 3: Socio-institutional analysis –2.2 Stage 2: appraising and choosing adaptation opt ions •Step 4: identifying and prioritizing adaptation o ptions 3. Conclusions

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.

Advancements in the design and validation of an air pollution integrated assessment model for Spain

This paper describes the design and application of the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated model for Spain (AERIS). Currently, AERIS can provide concentration profiles of NO2, O3, SO2, NH3, PM, as a response to emission variations of relevant sectors in Spain. Results are calculated using transfer matrices based on an air quality modelling system (AQMS) composed by the WRF (meteorology), SMOKE (emissions) and CMAQ (atmospheric-chemical processes) models. The AERIS outputs were statistically tested against the conventional AQMS and observations, revealing a good agreement in both cases. At the moment, integrated assessment in AERIS focuses only on the link between emissions and concentrations. The quantification of deposition, impacts (health, ecosystems) and costs will be introduced in the future. In conclusion, the main asset of AERIS is its accuracy in predicting air quality outcomes for different scenarios through a simple yet robust modelling framework, avoiding complex programming and long computing times.

The Economic Impacts Of Climate Change On The Chilean Agricultural Sector

The agricultural sector could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades. Climate change impacts are related to changes in the growth period, extreme weather events, and changes in temperature and recipitation patterns, among others. All of these impacts may have significant consequences on agricultural production(Bates, et al.2008. A main issue regarding climate change impacts is related to the uncertainty associated with their occurrence. Climate change impacts can bestimated with simulation models based on several assumptions, among which the future patterns of emissions of greenhouse g asses are quite likely the most relevant, driving the development of future scenarios, i.e. plausible visions of how the future may unfold. Those scenarios are developed as storylines associated with different assumptions about climate and socioeconomic conditions and emissions, with reference figures, such as demographic projections, average global temperatures, etc.(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000). Within this context, climate change impact assessment is forced to consider multiple and interconnected sources of uncertainty in order to produce valuable information for policymakers.

Analysis of Contributions to NO2 Ambient Air Quality Levels in Madrid City (Spain) through Modeling. Implications for the Development of Policies and Air Quality Monitoring

As environmental standards become more stringent (e.g. European Directive 2008/50/EC), more reliable and sophisticated modeling tools are needed to simulate measures and plans that may effectively tackle air quality exceedances, common in large cities across Europe, particularly for NO2. Modeling air quality in urban areas is rather complex since observed concentration values are a consequence of the interaction of multiple sources and processes that involve a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Besides a consistent and robust multi-scale modeling system, comprehensive and flexible emission inventories are needed. This paper discusses the application of the WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ system to the Madrid city (Spain) to assess the contribution of the main emitting sectors in the region. A detailed emission inventory was compiled for this purpose. This inventory relies on bottom-up methods for the most important sources. It is coupled with the regional traffic model and it makes use of an extensive database of industrial, commercial and residential combustion plants. Less relevant sources are downscaled from national or regional inventories. This paper reports the methodology and main results of the source apportionment study performed to understand the origin of pollution (main sectors and geographical areas) and define clear targets for the abatement strategy. Finally the structure of the air quality monitoring is analyzed and discussed to identify options to improve the monitoring strategy not only in the Madrid city but the whole metropolitan area.

Brown trout thermal niche and climate change: expected changes in the distribution of cold-water fish in central Spain

This paper addresses the determination of the realized thermal niche and the effects of climate change on the range distribution of two brown trout populations inhabiting two streams in the Duero River basin (Iberian Peninsula) at the edge of the natural distribution area of this species. For reaching these goals, new methodological developments were applied to improve reliability of forecasts. Water temperature data were collected using 11 thermographs located along the altitudinal gradient, and they were used to model the relationship between stream temperature and air temperature along the river continuum. Trout abundance was studied using electrofishing at 37 sites to determine the current distribution. The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 change scenarios adopted by the International Panel of Climate Change for its Fifth Assessment Report were used for simulations and local downscaling in this study. We found more reliable results using the daily mean stream temperature than maximum daily temperature and their respective seven days moving-average to determine the distribution thresholds. Thereby, the observed limits of the summer distribution of brown trout were linked to thresholds between 18.1ºC and 18.7ºC. These temperatures characterise a realised thermal niche narrower than the physiological thermal range. In the most unfavourable climate change scenario, the thermal habitat loss of brown trout increased to 38% (Cega stream) and 11% (Pirón stream) in the upstream direction at the end of the century; however, at the Cega stream, the range reduction could reach 56% due to the effect of a ?warm-window? opening in the piedmont reach.

An integrated assessment of two decades of air pollution policy making in Spain: Impacts, costs and improvements

This paper analyses the effects of policy making for air pollution abatement in Spain between 2000 and 2020 under an integrated assessment approach with the AERIS model for number of pollutants (NOx/NO2, PM10/PM2.5, O3, SO2, NH3 and VOC). The analysis of the effects of air pollution focused on different aspects: compliance with the European limit values of Directive 2008/50/EC for NO2 and PM10 for the Spanish air quality management areas; the evaluation of impacts caused by the deposition of atmospheric sulphur and nitrogen on ecosystems; the exceedance of critical levels of NO2 and SO2 in forest areas; the analysis of O3-induced crop damage for grapes, maize, potato, rice, tobacco, tomato, watermelon and wheat; health impacts caused by human exposure to O3 and PM2.5; and costs on society due to crop losses (O3), disability-related absence of work staff and damage to buildings and public property due to soot-related soiling (PM2.5). In general, air quality policy making has delivered improvements in air quality levels throughout Spain and has mitigated the severity of the impacts on ecosystems, health and vegetation in 2020 as target year. The findings of this work constitute an appropriate diagnosis for identifying improvement potentials for further mitigation for policy makers and stakeholders in Spain.