The rise and fall of open solar flux during the current grand solar maximum

We use geomagnetic activity data to study the rise and fall over the past century of the solar wind flow speed VSW, the interplanetary magnetic field strength B, and the open solar flux FS. Our estimates include allowance for the kinematic effect of longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow speed. As well as solar cycle variations, all three parameters show a long-term rise during the first half of the 20th century followed by peaks around 1955 and 1986 and then a recent decline. Cosmogenic isotope data reveal that this constitutes a grand maximum of solar activity which began in 1920, using the definition that such grand maxima are when 25-year averages of the heliospheric modulation potential exceeds 600 MV. Extrapolating the linear declines seen in all three parameters since 1985, yields predictions that the grand maximum will end in the years 2013, 2014, or 2027 using VSW, FS, or B, respectively. These estimates are consistent with predictions based on the probability distribution of the durations of past grand solar maxima seen in cosmogenic isotope data. The data contradict any suggestions of a floor to the open solar flux: we show that the solar minimum open solar flux, kinematically corrected to allow for the excess flux effect, has halved over the past two solar cycles.

Transpolar voltage and polar cap flux during the substorm cycle and steady convection events

Transpolar voltages observed during traversals of the polar cap by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-13 spacecraft during 2001 are analyzed using the expanding-contracting polar cap model of ionospheric convection. Each of the 10,216 passes is classified by its substorm phase or as a steady convection event (SCE) by inspection of the AE indices. For all phases, we detect a contribution to the transpolar voltage by reconnection in both the dayside magnetopause and in the crosstail current sheet. Detection of the IMF influence is 97% certain during quiet intervals and >99% certain during substorm/SCE growth phases but falls to 75% in substorm expansion phases: It is only 27% during SCEs. Detection of the influence of the nightside voltage is only 19% certain during growth phases, rising during expansion phases to a peak of 96% in recovery phases: During SCEs, it is >99%. The voltage during SCEs is dominated by the nightside, not the dayside, reconnection. On average, substorm expansion phases halt the growth phase rise in polar cap flux rather than reversing it. The main destruction of the excess open flux takes place during the 6- to 10-hour interval after the recovery phase (as seen in AE) and at a rate which is relatively independent of polar cap flux because the NENL has by then retreated to the far tail. The best estimate of the voltage associated with viscous-like transfer of closed field lines into the tail is around 10 kV.

Flux comparison of Eulerian and Lagrangian estimates of Agulhas leakage: A case study using a numerical model

Estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the volume flux of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is difficult because of the presence of other circulation systems in the Agulhas region. Indian Ocean water in the Atlantic Ocean is vigorously mixed and diluted in the Cape Basin. Eulerian integration methods, where the velocity field perpendicular to a section is integrated to yield a flux, have to be calibrated so that only the flux by Agulhas leakage is sampled. Two Eulerian methods for estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage are tested within a high-resolution two-way nested model with the goal to devise a mooring-based measurement strategy. At the GoodHope line, a section halfway through the Cape Basin, the integrated velocity perpendicular to that line is compared to the magnitude of Agulhas leakage as determined from the transport carried by numerical Lagrangian floats. In the first method, integration is limited to the flux of water warmer and more saline than specific threshold values. These threshold values are determined by maximizing the correlation with the float-determined time series. By using the threshold values, approximately half of the leakage can directly be measured. The total amount of Agulhas leakage can be estimated using a linear regression, within a 90% confidence band of 12 Sv. In the second method, a subregion of the GoodHope line is sought so that integration over that subregion yields an Eulerian flux as close to the float-determined leakage as possible. It appears that when integration is limited within the model to the upper 300 m of the water column within 900 km of the African coast the time series have the smallest root-mean-square difference. This method yields a root-mean-square error of only 5.2 Sv but the 90% confidence band of the estimate is 20 Sv. It is concluded that the optimum thermohaline threshold method leads to more accurate estimates even though the directly measured transport is a factor of two lower than the actual magnitude of Agulhas leakage in this model.

Chlorine tolerant, multilayer reverse-somosis membranes with high permeate flux and high salt rejection

A new class of high molecular weight polyethersulfone ionomers is described in which the ionic content can be varied, at will, over a very wide and fully-controllable range. A novel type of coating process enables these materials to be deposited from alcohol-type solvents as cohesive but very thin (50 – 250 nm) films on porous support-membranes, giving high-flux membranes (3.3 – 5.0 L m-2 h-1 bar-1) with very good, though not outstanding salt rejection (typically 92 - 96%). A secondary layer, of formaldehyde-cross-linked polyvinyl alcohol, can be deposited from aqueous solution on the surface of the ionomer membrane, and this layer increases salt rejection to greater than 99% without serious loss of water permeability. The final multi-layer membrane shows excellent chlorine tolerance in reverse-osmosis operation.

Time series analysis of lava flux

We have applied time series analytical techniques to the flux of lava from an extrusive eruption. Tilt data acting as a proxy for flux are used in a case study of the May–August 1997 period of the eruption at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We justify the use of such a proxy by simple calibratory arguments. Three techniques of time series analysis are employed: spectral, spectrogram and wavelet methods. In addition to the well-known ~9-hour periodicity shown by these data, a previously unknown periodic flux variability is revealed by the wavelet analysis as a 3-day cycle of frequency modulation during June–July 1997, though the physical mechanism responsible is not clear. Such time series analysis has potential for other lava flux proxies at other types of volcanoes.

Temporal and spatial variability of mobile fauna on a submarine cliff and boulder scree complex: a community in flux

The mobile component of a community inhabiting a submarine boulder scree/cliff was investigated at Lough Hyne, Ireland at dawn, midday, dusk and night over a 1-week period. Line transects (50 m) were placed in the infralittoral (6 m) and circumlittoral (18 m) zones and also the interface between these two zones (12 m). The dominant mobile fauna of this cliff consisted of echinoderms (6 species), crustaceans (10 species) and fish (23 species). A different component community was identified at each time/depth interval using Multi-Dimensional Scaling (MDS) even though both species diversity (Shannon-Wiener indices) and richness (number of species) remained constant. These changes in community composition provided indirect evidence for migration by these mobile organisms. However, little evidence was found for migration between different zones with the exception of the several wrasse species. These species were observed to spend the daytime foraging in the deeper zone, but returned to the upper zone at night presumably for protection from predators. For the majority of species, migration was considered to occur to cryptic habitats such as holes and crevices. The number of organisms declined during the night, although crustacean numbers peaked, while fish and echinoderms were most abundant during day, possibly due to predator-prey interactions. This submarine community is in a state of flux, whereby, community characteristics, including trophic and energetic relationships, varied over small temporal (daily) and spatial (m) scales.

The effect of temperature, photosynthetic photon flux density, and photoperiod on the vegetative growth and flowering of 'Autumn Bliss' raspberry

The effects of temperature, photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) and photoperiod on vegetative growth and flowering of the raspberry (Rubus idaeus L.) 'Autumn Bliss' were investigated. Increased temperature resulted in an increased rate of vegetative growth and a greater rate of progress to flowering. Optimum temperatures lay in the low to mid 20degreesC range. Above this the rate of plant development declined. Increased PPFD also advanced flowering. While photoperiod did not significantly affect the rate of vegetative growth, flowering occurred earliest at intermediate photoperiods and was delayed by extreme photoperiods. These responses suggest that there is potential for adjusting cropping times of raspberry grown under protection by manipulating the environment, especially temperature.

Critical flux in ultrafiltration of skimmed milk

he best operating conditions, using the critical flux concept during ultrafiltration of skimmed milk, were evaluated for tubular membranes. It was found that irreversible fouling was greatly reduced by operating at or below the critical flux, but was not totally eliminated. The critical flux of skimmed milk was found to be the weak form. The critical flux at cross flow velocity 3.4 in s(-1) for MWCO 200 kDa membrane was 56.9 kg m(-2) h(-1) while for MWCO 25 kDa membranes it was 45 kg m(2) h(-1) suggesting that membrane pore size influenced the flux. The critical flux increased with increasing wall shear stress and decreased with increasing protein concentration. Empirical equations, for predicting the critical flux (J(crit)) for skimmed milk with a protein concentration (c(b)) in the range 3-7% w/w and wall shear stress (tau(w)) in the range 7-60 Pa for MWCO 200 kDa and 25 kDa membranes were J(crit) = 5.1 (tau(w)/c(b)) and J(crit) = 4.0 (tau(w)/c(b)) respectively. In general, the rejections of protein and lactose at the critical flux were not affected by protein concentration, wall shear stress and membrane used, and they were similar to those found when operating at the limiting flux.

Suprathermal electron flux peaks at stream interfaces: Signature of solar wind dynamics or tracer for open magnetic flux transport on the Sun?

The high variability of the intensity of suprathermal electron flux in the solar wind is usually ascribed to the high variability of sources on the Sun. Here we demonstrate that a substantial amount of the variability arises from peaks in stream interaction regions, where fast wind runs into slow wind and creates a pressure ridge at the interface. Superposed epoch analysis centered on stream interfaces in 26 interaction regions previously identified in Wind data reveal a twofold increase in 250 eV flux (integrated over pitch angle). Whether the peaks result from the compression there or are solar signatures of the coronal hole boundary, to which interfaces may map, is an open question. Suggestive of the latter, some cases show a displacement between the electron and magnetic field peaks at the interface. Since solar information is transmitted to 1 AU much more quickly by suprathermal electrons compared to convected plasma signatures, the displacement may imply a shift in the coronal hole boundary through transport of open magnetic flux via interchange reconnection. If so, however, the fact that displacements occur in both directions and that the electron and field peaks in the superposed epoch analysis are nearly coincident indicate that any systematic transport expected from differential solar rotation is overwhelmed by a random pattern, possibly owing to transport across a ragged coronal hole boundary.

Export of dissolved organic carbon from an upland peatland during storm events: implications for flux estimates

Most of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exported from catchments is transported during storm events. Accurate assessments of DOC fluxes are essential to understand long-term trends in the transport of DOC from terrestrial to aquatic systems, and also the loss of carbon from peatlands to determine changes in the source/sink status of peatland carbon stores. However, many long-term monitoring programmes collect water samples at a frequency (e.g. weekly/monthly) less than the time period of a typical storm event (typically <1–2 days). As widespread observations in catchments dominated by organo-mineral soils have shown that both concentration and flux of DOC increases during storm events, lower frequency monitoring could result in substantial underestimation of DOC flux as the most dynamic periods of transport are missed. However, our intensive monitoring study in a UK upland peatland catchment showed a contrasting response to these previous studies. Our results showed that (i) DOC concentrations decreased during autumn storm events and showed a poor relationship with flow during other seasons; and that (ii) this decrease in concentrations during autumn storms caused DOC flux estimates based on weekly monitoring data to be over-estimated, rather than under-estimated, because of over rather than under estimation of the flow-weighted mean concentration used in flux calculations. However, as DOC flux is ultimately controlled by discharge volume, and therefore rainfall, and the magnitude of change in discharge was greater than the magnitude of decline in concentrations, DOC flux increased during individual storm events. The implications for long-term DOC trends are therefore contradictory, as increased rainfall could increase flux but cause an overall decrease in DOC concentrations from peatland streams. Care needs to be taken when interpreting long-term trends in DOC flux rather than concentration; as flux is calculated from discharge estimates, and discharge is controlled by rainfall, DOC flux and rainfall/discharge will always be well correlated.