Do location specific forecasts pose a new challenge for communicating uncertainty?

In the last decade, the growth of local, site-specific weather forecasts delivered by mobile phone or website represents arguably the fastest change in forecast consumption since the beginning of Television weather forecasts 60 years ago. In this study, a street-interception survey of 274 members of the public a clear first preference for narrow weather forecasts above traditional broad weather forecasts is shown for the first time, with a clear bias towards this preference for users under 40. The impact of this change on the understanding of forecast probability and intensity information is explored. While the correct interpretation of the statement ‘There is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow’ is still low in the cohort, in common with previous studies, a clear impact of age and educational attainment on understanding is shown, with those under 40 and educated to degree level or above more likely to correctly interpret it. The interpretation of rainfall intensity descriptors (‘Light’, ‘Moderate’, ‘Heavy’) by the cohort is shown to be significantly different to official and expert assessment of the same descriptors and to have large variance amongst the cohort. However, despite these key uncertainties, members of the cohort generally seem to make appropriate decisions about rainfall forecasts. There is some evidence that the decisions made are different depending on the communication format used, and the cohort expressed a clear preference for tabular over graphical weather forecast presentation.

Design and baseline characteristics of the Food4Me study: a web-based randomised controlled trial of personalised nutrition in seven European countries

Improving lifestyle behaviours has considerable potential for reducing the global burden of non-communicable diseases, promoting better health across the life-course and increasing well-being. However, realising this potential will require the development, testing and implementation of much more effective behaviour change interventions than are used conventionally. Therefore, the aim of this study was to conduct a multi-centre, web-based, proof-of-principle study of personalised nutrition (PN) to determine whether providing more personalised dietary advice leads to greater improvements in eating patterns and health outcomes compared to conventional population-based advice. A total of 5,562 volunteers were screened across seven European countries; the first 1,607 participants who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were recruited into the trial. Participants were randomly assigned to one of the following intervention groups for a 6-month period: Level 0-control group-receiving conventional, non-PN advice; Level 1-receiving PN advice based on dietary intake data alone; Level 2-receiving PN advice based on dietary intake and phenotypic data; and Level 3-receiving PN advice based on dietary intake, phenotypic and genotypic data. A total of 1,607 participants had a mean age of 39.8 years (ranging from 18 to 79 years). Of these participants, 60.9 % were women and 96.7 % were from white-European background. The mean BMI for all randomised participants was 25.5 kg m(-2), and 44.8 % of the participants had a BMI ≥ 25.0 kg m(-2). Food4Me is the first large multi-centre RCT of web-based PN. The main outcomes from the Food4Me study will be submitted for publication during 2015.

Standardized evaluation of algorithms for computer-aided diagnosis of dementia based on structural MRI: The CADDementia challenge

Algorithms for computer-aided diagnosis of dementia based on structural MRI have demonstrated high performance in the literature, but are difficult to compare as different data sets and methodology were used for evaluation. In addition, it is unclear how the algorithms would perform on previously unseen data, and thus, how they would perform in clinical practice when there is no real opportunity to adapt the algorithm to the data at hand. To address these comparability, generalizability and clinical applicability issues, we organized a grand challenge that aimed to objectively compare algorithms based on a clinically representative multi-center data set. Using clinical practice as the starting point, the goal was to reproduce the clinical diagnosis. Therefore, we evaluated algorithms for multi-class classification of three diagnostic groups: patients with probable Alzheimer's disease, patients with mild cognitive impairment and healthy controls. The diagnosis based on clinical criteria was used as reference standard, as it was the best available reference despite its known limitations. For evaluation, a previously unseen test set was used consisting of 354 T1-weighted MRI scans with the diagnoses blinded. Fifteen research teams participated with a total of 29 algorithms. The algorithms were trained on a small training set (n = 30) and optionally on data from other sources (e.g., the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, the Australian Imaging Biomarkers and Lifestyle flagship study of aging). The best performing algorithm yielded an accuracy of 63.0% and an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) of 78.8%. In general, the best performances were achieved using feature extraction based on voxel-based morphometry or a combination of features that included volume, cortical thickness, shape and intensity. The challenge is open for new submissions via the web-based framework: http://caddementia.grand-challenge.org.

A prospective 12-month study of the effect of smoking cessation on periodontal clinical parameters

P>Aim The aim of this 12-month prospective study was to assess the adjunctive effect of smoking cessation in non-surgical periodontal therapy of subjects with severe chronic periodontitis. Materials and methods Of the 201 subjects enrolled from a smoking cessation clinic, 93 were eligible and received non-surgical periodontal treatment and concurrent smoking cessation treatment. Periodontal maintenance was performed every 3 months. Full-mouth periodontal examination in six sites per tooth was performed by a calibrated examiner, blinded to smoking status, at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months after non-surgical periodontal treatment. Furthermore, expired air carbon monoxide concentration measurements and interviews based on a structured questionnaire were performed in order to collect demographic and smoking data. Results Of the 93 eligible subjects, 52 remained in the study after 1 year. Of these, 17 quit smoking and 35 continued smoking or oscillated. After 1 year, only quitters presented significant clinical attachment gain (p=0.04). However, there were no differences between the groups regarding clinical attachment level, probing depth, bleeding on probing and plaque index after 1 year (p > 0.05). Conclusion Smoking cessation promoted clinical attachment gain in chronic periodontitis subjects from a smoking cessation clinic after 1 year of follow-up.

Recurrent Deletion of ZNF630 at Xp11.23 Is Not Associated With Mental Retardation

ZNF630 is a member of the primate-specific Xp11 zinc finger gene cluster that consists of six closely related genes, of which ZNF41, ZNF81, and ZNF674 have been shown to be involved in mental retardation. This suggests that mutations of ZNF630 might influence cognitive function. Here, we detected 12 ZNF630 deletions in a total of 1,562 male patients with mental retardation from Brazil, USA, Australia, and Europe. The breakpoints were analyzed in 10 families, and in all cases they were located within two segmental duplications that share more than 99% sequence identity, indicating that the deletions resulted from non-allelic homologous recombination. In 2,121 healthy male controls, 10 ZNF630 deletions were identified. In total, there was a 1.6-fold higher frequency of this deletion in males with mental retardation as compared to controls, but this increase was not statistically significant (P-value = 0.174). Conversely, a 1.9-fold lower frequency of ZNF630 duplications was observed in patients, which was not significant either (P-value = 0.163). These data do not show that ZNF630 deletions or duplications are associated with mental retardation. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Major gene and multifactorial inheritance of mandibular prognathism

Mandibular prognathism typically shows familial aggregation. Various genetic models have been described and it is assumed to be a multifactorial and polygenic trait, with a threshold for expression. Our goal was to examine specific genetic models of the familial transmission of this trait. The study sample comprised of 2,562 individuals from 55 families. Complete family histories for each proband were ascertained and the affection status of relatives were confirmed by lateral cephalograms, photographs, and dental models. Pedigrees were drawn using PELICAN and complex segregation analysis was performed using POINTER. Parts of some pedigrees were excluded to create one founder pedigrees, so the total N was 2,050. Analysis showed more affected females than males (P = 0.030). The majority of the pedigrees suggest autosomal dominant inheritance. Incomplete penetrance was demonstrated by the ratio of affected/unaffected parents and siblings. The heritability of mandibular prognathism was estimated to be 0.316. We conclude that there is a major gene that influences the expression of mandibular prognathism with clear signs of Mendelian inheritance and a multifactorial component. (C) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

An incremental space to visualize dynamic data sets

In Information Visualization, adding and removing data elements can strongly impact the underlying visual space. We have developed an inherently incremental technique (incBoard) that maintains a coherent disposition of elements from a dynamic multidimensional data set on a 2D grid as the set changes. Here, we introduce a novel layout that uses pairwise similarity from grid neighbors, as defined in incBoard, to reposition elements on the visual space, free from constraints imposed by the grid. The board continues to be updated and can be displayed alongside the new space. As similar items are placed together, while dissimilar neighbors are moved apart, it supports users in the identification of clusters and subsets of related elements. Densely populated areas identified in the incSpace can be efficiently explored with the corresponding incBoard visualization, which is not susceptible to occlusion. The solution remains inherently incremental and maintains a coherent disposition of elements, even for fully renewed sets. The algorithm considers relative positions for the initial placement of elements, and raw dissimilarity to fine tune the visualization. It has low computational cost, with complexity depending only on the size of the currently viewed subset, V. Thus, a data set of size N can be sequentially displayed in O(N) time, reaching O(N (2)) only if the complete set is simultaneously displayed.

Thermochronology of central Ribeira Fold Belt, SE Brazil: Petrological and geochronological evidence for long-term high temperature maintenance during Western Gondwana amalgamation

The studied sector of the central Ribeira Fold Belt (SE Brazil) comprises metatexites, diatexites, charnockites and blastomylonites. This study integrates petrological and thermochronological data in order to constrain the thermotectonic and geodynamic evolution of this Neoproterozoic-Ordovician mobile belt during Western Gondwana amalgamation. New data indicate that after an earlier collision stage at similar to 610 Ma (zircon, U-Pb age), peak metamorphism and lower crust partial melting, coeval with the main regional high grade D(1) thrust deformation, occurred at 572-562 Ma (zircon, U-Pb ages). The overall average cooling rate was low (<5 degrees C/Ma) from 750 to 250 degrees C (at similar to 455 Ma; biotite-WR Rb-Sr age), but disparate cooling paths indicate differential uplift between distinct lithotypes: (a) metatexites and blastomylonites show a overall stable 3-5 degrees C/Ma cooling rate; (b) charnockites and associated rocks remained at T>650 degrees C during sub-horizontal D(2) shearing until similar to 510-470 Ma (garnet-WR Sm-Nd ages) (1-2 degrees C/Ma), being then rapidly exhumed/cooled (8-30 degrees C/Ma) during post-orogenic D(3) deformation with late granite emplacement at similar to 490 Ma (zircon, U-Pb age). Cooling rates based on garnet-biotite Fe-Mg diffusion are broadly consistent with the geochronological cooling rates: (a) metatexites were cooled faster at high temperatures (6 degrees C/Ma) and slowly at low temperatures (0.1 degrees C/Ma), decreasing cooling rates with time; (b) charnockites show low cooling rates (2 degrees C/Ma) near metamorphic peak conditions and high cooling rates (120 degrees C/Ma) at lower temperatures, increasing cooling rates during retrogression. The charnockite thermal evolution and the extensive production of granitoid melts in the area imply that high geothermal gradients were sustained fora long period of time (50-90 Ma). This thermal anomaly most likely reflects upwelling of asthenospheric mantle and magma underplating coupled with long-term generation of high HPE (heat producing elements) granitoids. These factors must have sustained elevated crustal geotherms for similar to 100 Ma, promoting widespread charnockite generation at middle to lower crustal levels. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NONHOMOGENEOUS RANDOM WALKS SYSTEMS ON Z

We consider a random walks system on Z in which each active particle performs a nearest-neighbor random walk and activates all inactive particles it encounters. The movement of an active particle stops when it reaches a certain number of jumps without activating any particle. We prove that if the process relies on efficient particles (i.e. those particles with a small probability of jumping to the left) being placed strategically on Z, then it might survive, having active particles at any time with positive probability. On the other hand, we may construct a process that dies out eventually almost surely, even if it relies on efficient particles. That is, we discuss what happens if particles are initially placed very far away from each other or if their probability of jumping to the right tends to I but not fast enough.

Sensing hazardous metal ions using a fluoroionophore calix[4]arene species containing two 8-oxyquinoline groups

The interaction of a calix[4]arene-based species containing two 8-oxyquinoline chromophore pendants with hazardous metal ions has been investigated using optical absorption and fluorimetric techniques. In the presence of Hg(2+), Cd(2+), and Pb(2+) ions, there is only a small decrease of the calixarene absorption band at 283 nm. The main changes are associated with the absorption band of the 8-oxyquinoline group at 315 nm, undergoing a systematic bathochromic shift to above 350 nm. In addition, a systematic decrease of the oxyquinoline emission at lambda(em) = 392 nm (lambda(exc) = 315 nm) has been observed. These observations are consistent with the coordination of the metal ions to the quinoline groups attached to the calixarene ligand, providing a useful fluoroinophore species for analytical purposes.

The Schwarmgeister: The Development of Ecclesiastical Doctrine Through Schismatic Movements

Throughout the Christian story, Church doctrine and ecclesiology have been shrouded in controversy. From the Council of Nicea in 325, when are early Church fathers debated about the Trinity of Christ all the way to the modern day with Vatican II theological controversies have been important in the molding of Christian doctrine on the structure, role, and function of the Church. What makes those controversies different from the ones I treat in my thesis is that the previously mentioned controversies did not lead to schismatic divisions in the Church. The Donatist controversy and Luther's theological battle with Karlstadt were major movements that endangered the unity of the Church. These controversies propagated crucial writings and teachings in two major areas. The first area is the spiritual power and validity of the sacraments. Second is the role, function, and ecclesiology of the Church, with particular attention to the authority of the ministry. I want to demonstrate that these controversies refined the Church's thinking on sacramental issues such as baptism and Eucharist, as well as address the question of who has the power in the Church? And to what extent do they have the power to press reforms?

A modalidade de licitação pregão

Licitação é um procedimento administrativo pelo qual a Administração Pública Direita ou Indireta efetua aquisição de bens e serviços.Um procedimento que atenda ao interesse público deverá ser praticado com rigor, obedecendo aos critérios estabelecidos em lei, bem como os princípios norteadores da Administração Pública.Em regra, o procedimento é obrigatório, no entanto, a Legislação traz hipóteses de licitação dispensada, dispensável e inexigível.É necessária a realização de todos os atos, pois a falta de algum ensejará anulação do procedimento.As modalidades constantes na Lei Geral de Licitações devem atender aos requisitos peculiares da norma.Não foge á regra a modalidade denominada Pregão, que está prevista em Legislação Especial.É um procedimento que visa à celeridade da contratação, a contratação do bem ou serviço pelo menor preço e possui características próprias, tais como a contratação de bens e serviços comuns, a inversão das fases de habilitação e julgamento, a possibilidade de efetuar lances verbais e a unificação da fase recursal.Bens e serviços comuns são aqueles que são definidos objetivamente pelo edital com base nas especificações de mercado.A inversão de fases do procedimento tem como escopo a habilitação de apenas um licitante, ou seja, o vencedor.Uma inovação ao procedimento licitatório é a fase de lances verbais, onde o participante poderá reduzir sua oferta visando atingir o menor preço e ser declarado vencedor do certame.Para atender ao princípio da celeridade, foi designada uma única fase para recursos, onde o participante poderá manifestar-se, motivadamente, seu inconformismo em sessão pública.Declarado o vencedor do certame,far-se-á o exame das propostas, adjudicará o objeto e homologará o procedimento, para que ao final seja celebrado o contrato administrativo ou o instrumento designado em edital.Mesmo possuindo uma legislação própria, haverá casos em que a Lei Geral de Licitações será aplicada subsidiariamente.

Metalogenese dos depositos hidrotermais de metais-base e au do ciclo brasiliano no bloco São Gabriel, RS

Os depósitos de metais-base (Camaquã, Santa Maria e na Formação Passo Feio), e Au (Bossoroca) mais importantes do Rio Grande do Sul foram gerados durante o Ciclo Brasiliano ao longo de três eventos distintos, relacionados ao magmatismo e metamorfismo contemporâneos (700, 594 e 562 Ma); os metais foram derivados de fontes relacionadas à crosta juvenil e ao embasamento antigo. O depósito de ouro da Bossoroca (700 Ma) consiste de veios de quartzo com Au e subordinadamente pirita, calcopirita, galena e teluretos, sendo classificado como um depósito orogênico epizonal. Os filões de quartzo aurífero são hospedados por rochas, piroclásticas calcico-alcalinas de composição andesítica, dacítica com basaltos e epiclásticas subordinadas, pertencentes a Formação Campestre. Estudos do zircão através do método U-Pb via SHRIMP mostram que as rochas vulcânicas encaixantes foram geradas a cerca de 760 Ma atrás, no início do Ciclo Brasiliano, e sofreram metamorfismo regional de baixa pressão na transição entre os facies xistos verdes e anfibolito a cerca de 700 Ma. Os depósitos de metais-base do sistema Camaquã Cu (Au, Ag) e Santa Maria Pb-Zn (Cu, Ag) são hidrotermais magmáticos distantes, provavelmente ligados à intrusões graníticas, e foram gerados há cerca de 594 Ma durante o magmatismo pós-colisional do final da Orogenêse Dom Feliciano. As mineralizações de Cu (Au) e Pb hospedados pela Formação Passo Feio são hidrotermais epigenéticas e foram gerados há 562 Ma durante a intrusão do Granito Caçapava. A composição isotópica do Pb dos sulfetos dos depósitos de Camaquã-Santa Maria indica que os metais foram derivados de uma fonte crustal com Pb muito primitivo no final do Ciclo Brasiliano. A composição isotópica do enxofre dos sulfetos desses depósitos (~ 0‰ CDT) indica uma origem magmática para o enxofre. Os metais dos depósitos hidrotermais epigenéticos da Formação Passo Feio foram também derivados do embasamento antigo, com contribuição importante das rochas meta-vulcanosedimentares da Formação Passo Feio. O enxofre dessas mineralizações possui origem mista, originada pela mistura de fluidos magmáticos (Granito Caçapava) com enxofre derivado da lixiviação das meta-vulcanosedimentares da Formação Passo Feio. Os metais concentrados no depósito de Au da Bossoroca foram mobilizados durante o metamorfismo regional dinamotermal através da interação de fluidos de origem profunda que ascenderam através da pilha vulcanosedimentar extraindo Au e outros metais, e depositando-os em níveis crustais mais rasos em sítios estruturalmente favoráveis. A fonte do Pb determinada para o depósito de Au da Bossoroca é de origem profunda e corresponde a mesma fonte do magma de arco juvenil gerador das rochas vulcânicas do arco. Os isótopos de C-O mostram assinaturas compatíveis com uma fonte profunda para estes fluidos mineralizadores.