The bias in reversing the Box-Cox transformation in time series forecasting: An empirical study based on neural networks

The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating outcomes in newborn infants using fuzzy logic

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Pruning methods to MLP neural networks considering proportional apparent error rate for classification problems with unbalanced data

This article deals with classification problems involving unequal probabilities in each class and discusses metrics to systems that use multilayer perceptrons neural networks (MLP) for the task of classifying new patterns. In addition we propose three new pruning methods that were compared to other seven existing methods in the literature for MLP networks. All pruning algorithms presented in this paper have been modified by the authors to do pruning of neurons, in order to produce fully connected MLP networks but being small in its intermediary layer. Experiments were carried out involving the E. coli unbalanced classification problem and ten pruning methods. The proposed methods had obtained good results, actually, better results than another pruning methods previously defined at the MLP neural network area. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A method using artificial neural networks to morphologically assess mouse blastocyst quality

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The application of neural networks to the analysis of dissolved gases in insulating oil used in transformers

The state of insulating oils used in transformers is determined through the accomplishment of physical-chemical tests, which determine the state of the oil, as well as the chromatography test, which determines possible faults in the equipment. This article concentrate on determining, from a new methodology, a relationship among the variation of the indices obtained from the physical-chemical tests with those indices supplied by the chromatography tests.The determination of the relationship among the tests is accomplished through the application of neural networks. From the data obtained by physical-chemical tests, the network is capable to determine the relationship among the concentration of the main gases present in a certain sample, which were detected by the chromatography tests.More specifically, the proposed approach uses neural networks of perceptron type constituted of multiple layers. After the process of network training, it is possible to determine the existent relationship between the physical-chemical tests and the amount of gases present in the insulating oil.

The use of artificial neural networks in analysing the nutritional ecology of Chrysomya megacephala (F.) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), compared with a statistical model

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely applied to the resolution of complex biological problems. An important feature of neural models is that their implementation is not precluded by the theoretical distribution shape of the data used. Frequently, the performance of ANNs over linear or non-linear regression-based statistical methods is deemed to be significantly superior if suitable sample sizes are provided, especially in multidimensional and non-linear processes. The current work was aimed at utilising three well-known neural network methods in order to evaluate whether these models would be able to provide more accurate outcomes in relation to a conventional regression method in pupal weight predictions of Chrysomya megacephala, a species of blowfly (Diptera: Calliphoridae), using larval density (i.e. the initial number of larvae), amount of available food and pupal size as input data. It was possible to notice that the neural networks yielded more accurate performances in comparison with the statistical model (multiple regression). Assessing the three types of networks utilised (Multi-layer Perceptron, Radial Basis Function and Generalised Regression Neural Network), no considerable differences between these models were detected. The superiority of these neural models over a classical statistical method represents an important fact, because more accurate models may clarify several intricate aspects concerning the nutritional ecology of blowflies.

Fuzzy logic to evaluate vitality of Catasetum fimbiratum species (Orchidacea)

The fuzzy logic accepts infinite intermediate logical values between false and true. In view of this principle, a system based on fuzzy rules was established to provide the best management of Catasetum fimbriatum. For the input of the developed fuzzy system, temperature and shade variables were used, and for the output, the orchid vitality. The system may help orchid experts and amateurs to manage this species. ?Low? (L), ?Medium? (M) and ?High? (H) were used as linguistic variables. The objective of the study was to develop a system based on fuzzy rules to improve management of the Catasetum fimbriatum species, as its production presents some difficulties, and it offers high added value

Niobium Effects on the Recrystallization Behavior on a Full Austenitic 15Cr-15Ni Stainless Steel Investigated Using Adaptive Neural Networks (ANN)

A new series of austenitic stainless steels-Nb stabilized, without Mo additions, non-susceptible to delta ferrite formation and devoid of intemetallic phases (sigma and chi), without deformation induced martensite is being developed, aiming at high temperature applications as well as for corrosive environments. The base steel composition is a 15Cr-15Ni with normal additions of Nb of 0.5, 1.0 and 2 wt%. Mechanical properties, oxidation and corrosion resistance already have been invetigated in previous papers. In this paper, the effects of Nb on the SFE, strain hardening and recrystallization resistance are evaluated with the help of Adaptive Neural Networks (ANN).

Phase-disorder-induced firing activity in excitable neuronal networks with attractive and repulsive coupling

It has been revealed that the network of excitable neurons via attractive coupling can generate spikes under stimuli of subthreshold signals with disordered phases. In this paper, we explore the firing activity induced by phase disorder in excitable neuronal networks consisting of both attractive and repulsive coupling. By increasing the fraction of repulsive coupling, we find that, in the weak coupling strength case, the firing threshold of phase disorder is increased and the system response to subthreshold signals is decreased, indicating that the effect of inducing neuron firing by phase disorder is weakened with repulsive coupling. Interestingly, in the large coupling strength case, we see an opposite situation, where the coupled neurons show a rather large response to the subthreshold signals even with small phase disorder. The latter case implies that the effect of phase disorder is enhanced by repulsive coupling. A system of two-coupled excitable neurons is used to explain the role of repulsive coupling on phase-disorder-induced firing activity.

Classification of the severity of diabetic neuropathy: a new approach taking uncertainties into account using fuzzy logic

OBJECTIVE: This study proposes a new approach that considers uncertainty in predicting and quantifying the presence and severity of diabetic peripheral neuropathy. METHODS: A rule-based fuzzy expert system was designed by four experts in diabetic neuropathy. The model variables were used to classify neuropathy in diabetic patients, defining it as mild, moderate, or severe. System performance was evaluated by means of the Kappa agreement measure, comparing the results of the model with those generated by the experts in an assessment of 50 patients. Accuracy was evaluated by an ROC curve analysis obtained based on 50 other cases; the results of those clinical assessments were considered to be the gold standard. RESULTS: According to the Kappa analysis, the model was in moderate agreement with expert opinions. The ROC analysis (evaluation of accuracy) determined an area under the curve equal to 0.91, demonstrating very good consistency in classifying patients with diabetic neuropathy. CONCLUSION: The model efficiently classified diabetic patients with different degrees of neuropathy severity. In addition, the model provides a way to quantify diabetic neuropathy severity and allows a more accurate patient condition assessment.

Hierarchical multi-label classification using local neural networks

Hierarchical multi-label classification is a complex classification task where the classes involved in the problem are hierarchically structured and each example may simultaneously belong to more than one class in each hierarchical level. In this paper, we extend our previous works, where we investigated a new local-based classification method that incrementally trains a multi-layer perceptron for each level of the classification hierarchy. Predictions made by a neural network in a given level are used as inputs to the neural network responsible for the prediction in the next level. We compare the proposed method with one state-of-the-art decision-tree induction method and two decision-tree induction methods, using several hierarchical multi-label classification datasets. We perform a thorough experimental analysis, showing that our method obtains competitive results to a robust global method regarding both precision and recall evaluation measures.

Neural networks engaged in tactile object manipulation: patterns of expression among healthy individuals

Somatosensory object discrimination has been shown to involve widespread cortical and subcortical structures in both cerebral hemispheres. In this study we aimed to identify the networks involved in tactile object manipulation by principal component analysis (PCA) of individual subjects. We expected to find more than one network.

Evaluating the Impact of the Number of Access Points in Mobile Robots Localization Using Artificial Neural Networks

Localization is information of fundamental importance to carry out various tasks in the mobile robotic area. The exact degree of precision required in the localization depends on the nature of the task. The GPS provides global position estimation but is restricted to outdoor environments and has an inherent imprecision of a few meters. In indoor spaces, other sensors like lasers and cameras are commonly used for position estimation, but these require landmarks (or maps) in the environment and a fair amount of computation to process complex algorithms. These sensors also have a limited field of vision. Currently, Wireless Networks (WN) are widely available in indoor environments and can allow efficient global localization that requires relatively low computing resources. However, the inherent instability in the wireless signal prevents it from being used for very accurate position estimation. The growth in the number of Access Points (AP) increases the overlap signals areas and this could be a useful means of improving the precision of the localization. In this paper we evaluate the impact of the number of Access Points in mobile nodes localization using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). We use three to eight APs as a source signal and show how the ANNs learn and generalize the data. Added to this, we evaluate the robustness of the ANNs and evaluate a heuristic to try to decrease the error in the localization. In order to validate our approach several ANNs topologies have been evaluated in experimental tests that were conducted with a mobile node in an indoor space.

Control of recycle processes using neural networks combined with PID controller

This thesis is focused on the control of a system with recycle. A new control strategy using neural network combined with PID controller was proposed. The combined controller was studied and tested on the pressure control of a vaporizer inside a para-xylene production process. The major problems are the negative effects of recycle and the delays on instability and performance. The neural network was designed to move the process close to the set points while the PID accomplishes the finer level of disturbance rejection and offset reductions. Our simulation results show that during control, the neural network was able to determine the nonlinear relationship between steady state and manipulated variables. The results also show the disturbance rejection was handled by PID controller effectively.

Transfer Functions in Artificial Neural Networks - A Simulation-Based Tutorial

Artificial neural networks are based on computational units that resemble basic information processing properties of biological neurons in an abstract and simplified manner. Generally, these formal neurons model an input-output behaviour as it is also often used to characterize biological neurons. The neuron is treated as a black box; spatial extension and temporal dynamics present in biological neurons are most often neglected. Even though artificial neurons are simplified, they can show a variety of input-output relations, depending on the transfer functions they apply. This unit on transfer functions provides an overview of different transfer functions and offers a simulation that visualizes the input-output behaviour of an artificial neuron depending on the specific combination of transfer functions.