Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality ofa regional paleoclimate simulation at 45 km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events.

Ce(III) and Ce(IV) (re)distribution and fractionation in a laterite profile from Madagascar: Insights from in situ XANES spectroscopy at the Ce LIII-edge

The distribution of trivalent and tetravalent cerium, Ce(III) and Ce(IV) respectively, in a lateritic profile from Madagascar, has been characterized by X-ray-absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy at the Ce LIII-edge on the LUCIA beamline (SOLEIL synchrotron, France). XANES spectra were acquired on bulk-rock samples as well as on specific lateritic minerals or polymineral zones (in-situ measurements) of the tonalite bedrock and the three overlying weathered horizons (C-, B- and A-horizons). Geochemically, the bedrock, and the A- and C-horizons show similar rare earth element content (REE = 363–405 mg/kg). They also display the same positive Ce-anomaly (CeCN/Ce∗ = 1.12–1.45), which is therefore likely to be inherited from the bedrock. In the B-horizon, the higher REE content (REE = 2194 mg/kg) and the larger Ce-anomaly (CeCN/Ce∗ = 4.26) are consistent with an accumulation zone caused by the evaporation of groundwater during the dry season. There is a good agreement between the Ce(III)/Cetotal ratio (XCe(III)) deduced from the positive Ce-anomaly (bulk-rock geochemical data) and that derived from XANES spectroscopy on the same bulk-rock samples (BR-XCe(III)-XANES) in the bedrock, and the C- and B-horizons. In the A-horizon, XANES measurements on bulk rock and minerals revealed a higher BR-XCe(III)-XANES (up to 100%) compared to the XCe(III) deduced from geochemical data (XCe(III) = 79%). The preservation of a positive Ce-anomaly in the A-horizon suggests that the Ce mobilization and redistribution during weathering occurred with no significant Ce fractionation from other trivalent REE. Remarkably, the only investigated sample where cerianite is observed belongs to the B-horizon. Within this horizon, Ce oxidation state varies depending on the microstructural position (porosity, cracks, clay-rich groundmass). The highest Ce(IV) concentrations are measured in cerianite (and aluminophosphates) localized in pores at the vicinity of Mn-rich domains (XCe(III)-XANES = 30–51%). Therefore, Ce fractionation from other REE is attributed to a Ce oxidation and precipitation potentially assisted by oxyhydroxide scavenging. In the C-horizon, Ce(III) and Ce(IV) are mainly distributed in REE-minerals of the rhabdophane group found in pores and cracks. The similarity between the Ce(III) proportion of rhabdophane grains (XCe(III)-XANES = 74–89%) with that of the bedrock (BR-XCe(III)-XANES = 79%) suggests no significant fractionation of Ce(III) and Ce(IV) between solution and mineral during the successive stages of primary REE-mineral alteration, transport in solution and secondary precipitation in the incipient stages of weathering. Overall, our novel spectroscopic approach shows that Ce is not necessarily oxidized nor fractionated from other REE during weathering in lateritic conditions. This implies that like Ce(III), Ce(IV) can be mobilized in aqueous fluids during weathering, possibly thanks to complexation with organic molecules, and can precipitate together with Ce(III) in secondary REE-bearing minerals. The corollary is that (paleo)redox reconstructions in soils and/or sediments based on Ce-anomaly in weathered rocks or minerals must be interpreted with caution.

Local Perceptions and Vertical Perspectives of a Large Scale Land Acquisition Project in Northern Sierra Leone

Despite increased scientific interest in the phenomenon of large-scale land acquisitions (LSLA), accurate data on implementation processes remain sparse. This paper aims at filling this gap by providing empirical in-depth knowledge on the case of the Swiss-based Addax Bioenergy Ltd. in Sierra Leone. Extensive fieldwork allowed the interdisciplinary research team 1) the identification of different actors that are necessary for the implementation on a vertical level and 2) the documentation of the heterogeneous group of project affected people’s perceptions and strategies on a horizontal level. Findings reveal that even a project labeled as best-practice example by UN agencies triggers a number of problematic processes for affected communities. The loss of natural resources that comes along with the land lease and the lack of employment possibilities mostly affects already vulnerable groups. On the other hand, strategies and resistance of local people also affect the project implementation. This shows that the horizontal and vertical levels are not separate entities. They are linked by social networks, social interactions, and means of communication and both levels take part in shaping the project’s impacts.

A chrysophyte-based quantitative reconstruction of winter severity from varved lake sediments in NE Poland during the past millennium and its relationship to natural climate variability

Chrysophyte cysts are recognized as powerful proxies of cold-season temperatures. In this paper we use the relationship between chrysophyte assemblages and the number of days below 4 °C (DB4 °C) in the epilimnion of a lake in northern Poland to develop a transfer function and to reconstruct winter severity in Poland for the last millennium. DB4 °C is a climate variable related to the length of the winter. Multivariate ordination techniques were used to study the distribution of chrysophytes from sediment traps of 37 low-land lakes distributed along a variety of environmental and climatic gradients in northern Poland. Of all the environmental variables measured, stepwise variable selection and individual Redundancy analyses (RDA) identified DB4 °C as the most important variable for chrysophytes, explaining a portion of variance independent of variables related to water chemistry (conductivity, chlorides, K, sulfates), which were also important. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate DB4 °C from sedimentary assemblages using partial least square regression (PLS). The two-component model (PLS-2) had a coefficient of determination of View the MathML sourceRcross2 = 0.58, with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on leave-one-out) of 3.41 days. The resulting transfer function was applied to an annually-varved sediment core from Lake Żabińskie, providing a new sub-decadal quantitative reconstruction of DB4 °C with high chronological accuracy for the period AD 1000–2010. During Medieval Times (AD 1180–1440) winters were generally shorter (warmer) except for a decade with very long and severe winters around AD 1260–1270 (following the AD 1258 volcanic eruption). The 16th and 17th centuries and the beginning of the 19th century experienced very long severe winters. Comparison with other European cold-season reconstructions and atmospheric indices for this region indicates that large parts of the winter variability (reconstructed DB4 °C) is due to the interplay between the oscillations of the zonal flow controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the influence of continental anticyclonic systems (Siberian High, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern). Differences with other European records are attributed to geographic climatological differences between Poland and Western Europe (Low Countries, Alps). Striking correspondence between the combined volcanic and solar forcing and the DB4 °C reconstruction prior to the 20th century suggests that winter climate in Poland responds mostly to natural forced variability (volcanic and solar) and the influence of unforced variability is low.

Morphological ripening of fluid inclusions and coupled zone-refining in quartz crystals revealed by cathodoluminescence imaging: Implications for CL-petrography, fluid inclusion analysis and trace-element geothermometry

Cathodoluminescence (CL) studies have previously shown that some secondary fluid inclusions in luminescent quartz are surrounded by dark, non-luminescent patches, resulting from fracture-sealing by late, trace-element-poor quartz. This finding has led to the tacit generalization that all dark CL patches indicate influx of low temperature, late-stage fluids. In this study we have examined natural and synthetic hydrothermal quartz crystals using CL imaging supplemented by in-situ elemental analysis. The results lead us to propose that all natural, liquid-water-bearing inclusions in quartz, whether trapped on former crystal growth surfaces (i.e., of primary origin) or in healed fractures (i.e., of pseudosecondary or secondary origin), are surrounded by three-dimensional, non-luminescent patches. Cross-cutting relations show that the patches form after entrapment of the fluid inclusions and therefore they are not diagnostic of the timing of fluid entrapment. Instead, the dark patches reveal the mechanism by which fluid inclusions spontaneously approach morphological equilibrium and purify their host quartz over geological time. Fluid inclusions that contain solvent water perpetually dissolve and reprecipitate their walls, gradually adopting low-energy euhedral and equant shapes. Defects in the host quartz constitute solubility gradients that drive physical migration of the inclusions over distances of tens of μm (commonly) up to several mm (rarely). Inclusions thus sequester from their walls any trace elements (e.g., Li, Al, Na, Ti) present in excess of equilibrium concentrations, thereby chemically purifying their host crystals in a process analogous to industrial zone refining. Non-luminescent patches of quartz are left in their wake. Fluid inclusions that contain no liquid water as solvent (e.g., inclusions of low-density H2O vapor or other non-aqueous volatiles) do not undergo this process and therefore do not migrate, do not modify their shapes with time, and are not associated with dark-CL zone-refined patches. This new understanding has implications for the interpretation of solids within fluid inclusions (e.g., Ti- and Al-minerals) and for the elemental analysis of hydrothermal and metamorphic quartz and its fluid inclusions by microbeam methods such as LA-ICPMS and SIMS. As Ti is a common trace element in quartz, its sequestration by fluid inclusions and its depletion in zone-refined patches impacts on applications of the Ti-in-quartz geothermometer.

Timing of retreat of the Reuss Glacier (Switzerland) at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum

We used cosmogenic 10Be and 36Cl to establish the timing of the onset of deglaciation after the Last Glacial Maximum of the Reuss Glacier, one of the piedmont lobes of the Alpine ice cap that reached the northern Alpine foreland in Switzerland. In this study, we sampled erratic boulders both at the frontal position in the foreland (Lenzburg and Wohlen, canton Aargau) and at the lateral Alpine border position (Seeboden moraine, Rigi, canton Schwyz). The minimum age for the beginning of retreat is 22.2 ± 1.0 ka at the frontal (terminal) position and 20.4 ± 1.0 ka at the lateral position. These ages are directly comparable with exposure ages from the other piedmont lobes in the northern Alpine foreland. Our data from the mountain called Rigi, do not support the hypothesis that boulders located external to the Seeboden moraine were deposited prior to the last glacial cycle. We present a first exposure age from an erratic boulder in a retreat position in the Alpine foreland. The Reuss Glacier was approximately 12 km behind the maximal extent no later than at 18.6 ± 0.9 ka.

Microscale mapping of alteration conditions and potential biosignatures in basaltic-ultramafic rocks on early Earth and beyond

Subseafloor environments preserved in Archean greenstone belts provide an analogue for investigating potential subsurface habitats on Mars. The c. 3.5-3.4 Ga pillow lava metabasalts of the mid-Archean Barberton greenstone belt, South Africa, have been argued to contain the earliest evidence for microbial subseafloor life. This includes candidate trace fossils in the form of titanite microtextures, and sulfur isotopic signatures of pyrite preserved in metabasaltic glass of the c. 3.472 Ga Hooggenoeg Formation. It has been contended that similar microtextures in altered martian basalts may represent potential extraterrestrial biosignatures of microbe-fluid-rock interaction. But despite numerous studies describing these putative early traces of life, a detailed metamorphic characterization of the microtextures and their host alteration conditions in the ancient pillow lava metabasites is lacking. Here, we present a new nondestructive technique with which to study the in situ metamorphic alteration conditions associated with potential biosignatures in mafic-ultramafic rocks of the Hooggenoeg Formation. Our approach combines quantitative microscale compositional mapping by electron microprobe with inverse thermodynamic modeling to derive low-temperature chlorite crystallization conditions. We found that the titanite microtextures formed under subgreenschist to greenschist facies conditions. Two chlorite temperature groups were identified in the maps surrounding the titanite microtextures and record peak metamorphic conditions at 315 ± 40°C (XFe3+(chlorite) = 25-34%) and lower-temperature chlorite veins/microdomains at T = 210 ± 40°C (lower XFe3+(chlorite) = 40-45%). These results provide the first metamorphic constraints in textural context on the Barberton titanite microtextures and thereby improve our understanding of the local preservation conditions of these potential biosignatures. We suggest that this approach may prove to be an important tool in future studies to assess the biogenicity of these earliest candidate traces of life on Earth. Furthermore, we propose that this mapping approach could also be used to investigate altered mafic-ultramafic extraterrestrial samples containing candidate biosignatures.

Komatiites constrain molybdenum isotope composition of the Earth's mantle

In order to estimate the Mo isotope composition and Mo abundance in the Bulk Silicate Earth (BSE), a total of thirty komatiite samples from five localities on three continents were analyzed using an isotope dilution double spike technique. Calculated Mo concentrations of the emplaced komatiite lavas range from 25±325±3 to 66±22 ng/g66±22 ng/g, and the inferred Mo concentrations in the deep mantle sources of the komatiites range between 17±417±4 and 30±12 ng/g30±12 ng/g, with an average value of 23±7 ng/g23±7 ng/g (2SE). This average value represents our best estimate for the Mo concentration in the BSE; it is identical, within the uncertainty, to published previous estimates of 39±16 ng/g39±16 ng/g, but is at least a factor of 2 more precise. The Mo isotope compositions of the komatiite mantle sources overlap within uncertainty and range from View the MathML sourceδMo98=−0.04±0.28 to 0.11±0.10‰0.11±0.10‰, with an average of 0.04±0.06‰0.04±0.06‰ (2SE). This value is analytically indistinguishable from published Mo isotope compositions of ordinary and enstatite chondrites and represents the best estimate for the Mo isotope composition of the BSE. The inferred δ98Mo for the BSE is therefore lighter than the suggested average of the upper continental crust (0.3 to 0.4‰). Thus, from the mass balance standpoint, a reservoir with lighter Mo isotope composition should exist in the Earth's mantle; this reservoir can potentially be found in subducted oceanic crust. The similarity of δ98Mo between chondritic meteorites and estimates for the BSE from this study indicates that during the last major equilibration between Earth's core and mantle, i.e., the one that occurred during the giant impact that produced the Moon, chemical and isotopic equilibrium of Mo between Fe metal of the core and the silicate mantle was largely achieved.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Minor inheritance inhibits the calibration of the 10Be production rate from the AD 1717 Val Ferret rock avalanche, European Alps

To calibrate the in situ 10Be production rate, we collected surface samples from nine large granitic boulders within the deposits of a rock avalanche that occurred in AD 1717 in the upper Ferret Valley, Mont Blanc Massif, Italy. The 10Be concentrations were extremely low and successfully measured within 10% analytical uncertainty or less. The concentrations vary from 4829 ± 448 to 5917 ± 476 at g−1. Using the historical age exposure time, we calculated the local and sea level-high latitude (i.e. ≥60°) cosmogenic 10Be spallogenic production rates. Depending on the scaling schemes, these vary between 4.60 ± 0.38 and 5.26 ± 0.43 at g−1 a−1. Although they correlate well with global values, our production rates are clearly higher than those from more recent calibration sites. We conclude that our 10Be production rate is a mean and an upper bound for production rates in the Massif region over the past 300 years. This rate is probably influenced by inheritance and will yield inaccurate (e.g. too young) exposure ages when applied to surface-exposure studies in the area. Other independently dated rock-avalanche deposits in the region that are approximately 103 years old could be considered as possible calibration sites.

Chronology of Lateglacial ice flow reorganization and deglaciation in the Gotthard Pass area, Central Swiss Alps, based on cosmogenic 10Be and in situ 14C

We reconstruct the timing of ice flow reconfiguration and deglaciation of the Central Alpine Gotthard Pass, Switzerland, using cosmogenic 10Be and in situ14C surface exposure dating. Combined with mapping of glacial erosional markers, exposure ages of bedrock surfaces reveal progressive glacier downwasting from the maximum LGM ice volume and a gradual reorganization of the paleoflow pattern with a southward migration of the ice divide. Exposure ages of ∼16–14 ka (snow corrected) give evidence for continuous early Lateglacial ice cover and indicate that the first deglaciation was contemporaneous with the decay of the large Gschnitz glacier system. In agreement with published ages from other Alpine passes, these data support the concept of large transection glaciers that persisted in the high Alps after the breakdown of the LGM ice masses in the foreland and possibly decayed as late as the onset of the Bølling warming. A younger group of ages around ∼12–13 ka records the timing of deglaciation following local glacier readvance during the Egesen stadial. Glacial erosional features and the distribution of exposure ages consistently imply that Egesen glaciers were of comparatively small volume and were following a topographically controlled paleoflow pattern. Dating of a boulder close to the pass elevation gives a minimum age of 11.1 ± 0.4 ka for final deglaciation by the end of the Younger Dryas. In situ14C data are overall in good agreement with the 10Be ages and confirm continuous exposure throughout the Holocene. However, in situ14C demonstrates that partial surface shielding, e.g. by snow, has to be incorporated in the exposure age calculations and the model of deglaciation.

Valle d’Aosta section of the Sesia Zone: multi-stage HP metamorphism and assembly of a rifted continental margin

The spectrum characteristic of the EMC ranges from eclogites (containing omphacite and/or jadeite, garnet, phengite, glaucophane, zoisite, chloritoid, rutile) to phengite schists, calcschists, and marbles, as well as a variety of orthogneisses. Despite the intense polyphase deformation and HP-metamorphic recrystallization, it is possible in some locations to recognize pre-Alpine characteristics in some of the protoliths. For instance, two types of felsic orthogneiss can be distinguished in the Aosta Valley, one derived from Permian granitoids (with local preservation of intrusive contacts, magmatic inclusions, leucocratic veins and other magmatic structures; Stop 3), the other derived from pre-Variscan leuco-monzogranite, such as the building stone mined at the “Argentera” quarry near Settimo Vittone / Montestrutto (Stop 2; so-called “Verde Argento” contains jadeite, phengite, K-feldspar, quartz). Polycyclic and more rarely monocyclic metasediments contain evidence of a complex Alpine PTDt-evolution, locally including relics of their prograde history from blueschist, one or more stages at eclogite facies. Recent petrochronological studies have dated this HP-evolution of the Sesia Zone in some detail. In the area visited, clear evidence of HP-cycling has been identified in one km-size tectonic slice (Stop 1), but not in adjacent parts of the EMC, indicating “yo-yo tectonics”. Partial retrogression and attendant ductile to brittle deformation of the HP-rocks is evident in one of the outcrops (Stop 4). Apart from the four localities in the Sesia Zone, a final outcrop introduces HP-rocks of the adjacent Piemonte oceanic unit, specifically calc-schists and ophiolite members of the “Zermatt-Saas” zone. The hilltop outcrop (Stop 5) displays foliated antigorite schist with peridotite relics (clinopyroxene, spinel) containing lenses derived from doleritic dykes. These fine-grained metarodingites and the folded veins containing Mg-chlorite and titanoclinohumite within serpentinite once again indicate equilibration under low-temperature eclogite facies conditions. However, these units reached that HP stage more than 20 Ma after the youngest eclogite facies imprint recognized in the Sesia Zone. Despite nearly half a century of intense study in the Sesia Zone, the complex assembly of its HP-terranes and their relation to more external parts of the Western Alps remains incompletely understood. This field guide merely introduces a few of the classic outcrops and discusses some of the critical evidence they contain, but it could not incorporate details on each stage of the evolution recognized so far.

Avalanche risk assessment - a multi-temporal approach, results from Galtür, Austria

Snow avalanches pose a threat to settlements and infrastructure in alpine environments. Due to the catastrophic events in recent years, the public is more aware of this phenomenon. Alpine settlements have always been confronted with natural hazards, but changes in land use and in dealing with avalanche hazards lead to an altering perception of this threat. In this study, a multi-temporal risk assessment is presented for three avalanche tracks in the municipality of Galtür, Austria. Changes in avalanche risk as well as changes in the risk-influencing factors (process behaviour, values at risk (buildings) and vulnerability) between 1950 and 2000 are quantified. An additional focus is put on the interconnection between these factors and their influence on the resulting risk. The avalanche processes were calculated using different simulation models (SAMOS as well as ELBA+). For each avalanche track, different scenarios were calculated according to the development of mitigation measures. The focus of the study was on a multi-temporal risk assessment; consequently the used models could be replaced with other snow avalanche models providing the same functionalities. The monetary values of buildings were estimated using the volume of the buildings and average prices per cubic meter. The changing size of the buildings over time was inferred from construction plans. The vulnerability of the buildings is understood as a degree of loss to a given element within the area affected by natural hazards. A vulnerability function for different construction types of buildings that depends on avalanche pressure was used to assess the degree of loss. No general risk trend could be determined for the studied avalanche tracks. Due to the high complexity of the variations in risk, small changes of one of several influencing factors can cause considerable differences in the resulting risk. This multi-temporal approach leads to better understanding of the today's risk by identifying the main changes and the underlying processes. Furthermore, this knowledge can be implemented in strategies for sustainable development in Alpine settlements.

The influence of absorbed solar radiation by Saharan dust on hurricane genesis

To date, the radiative impact of dust and the Sahar an air layer (SAL) on North Atlantic hurricane activity is not yet known. According to previous studies, dust stabilizes the atmosphere due to absorption of solar radiation but thus shifts convection to regions more conducive for hurricane genesis. Here we analyze differences in hurricane genesis and frequency from ensemble sensitivity simulations with radiatively active and inactive dust in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM. We investigate dust burden and other hurricane-related variables and determine their influence on disturbances which develop into hurricanes (developing disturbances, DDs) and those which do not (nondeveloping disturbances, NDDs). Dust and the SAL are found to potentially have both inhibiting and supporting influences on background conditions for hurricane genesis. A slight southward shift of DDs is determined when dust is active as well as a significant warming of the SAL, which leads to a strengthening of the vertical circulation associated with the SAL. The dust burden of DDs is smaller in active dust simulations compared to DDs in simulations with inactive dust, while NDDs contain more dust in active dust simulations. However, no significant influence of radiatively active dust on other variables in DDs and NDDs is found. Furthermore, no substantial change in the DD and NDD frequency due to the radiative effects of dust can be detected.

A 600 years warm-season temperature record from varved sediments of Lago Plomo, Northern Patagonia, Chile (47°S)

High-resolution records of calibrated proxy data for the past millennium are fundamental to place current changes into the context of pre-industrial natural forced and unforced variability. Although the need for regional spatially-explicit comprehensive reconstructions is widely recognized, the proxy data sources are still scarce, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere and especially for South America. We present a 600-year long warm season temperature record from varved sediments of Lago Plomo, a proglacial lake of the Northern Patagonian Ice field in Southern Chile (46°59′S, 72°52′W, 203 m a.s.l.). The thickness of the bright summer sediment layer relative to the dark winter layer (measured as total brightness; % reflectance 400–730 nm) is calibrated against warm season SONDJF temperature (1900–2009; r = 0.58, p(aut) = 0.056, RE = 0.52; CE = 0.15, RMSEP = 0.28 °C; five-year triangular filtered data). In Lago Plomo, warm summer temperatures lead to enhanced glacier melt and suspended sediment transport, which results in thicker light summer layers and to brighter sediments. Although Patagonia shows pronounced regional differences in decadal temperature trends and variability, the 600 years temperature reconstruction from Lago Plomo compares favourably with other regional/continental temperature records, but also emphasizes significant regional differences for which no data and information existed so far. These regional differences seem to be real as they are also reflected in modern climate data sets (1900–2010). The reconstruction shows pronounced subdecadal – multidecadal variability with cold phases during parts of the Little Ice Age (16th and 18th centuries) and in the beginning of the 20th century. The most prominent warm phase is the 19th century which is as warm as the second half of the 20th century. The exceptional summer warmth AD 1780–1810 is also found in other archives of Northern Patagonia and Central Chile. Our record shows the delayed 20th century warming in the Southern Hemisphere. The comparison between winter precipitation and summer temperature (inter-seasonal coupling) from Lago Plomo reveals alternating phases with parallel and contrasting decadal trends of winter precipitation and summer temperature (positive and negative running correlations Rwinter PP; summer TT). This observation from the sediment proxy data is also confirmed by two sets of reanalysis data for the 20th century. Reanalysis data show that phases with negative correlations between winter precipitation and summer temperature (e.g., dry winters and warm summers) at Lago Plomo are characteristic for periods when circumpolar Westerly flow is displaced southward and enhanced around 60°S.