Addressing wildfire risk in forest management with a wildfire resistance indicator

Mestrado Mediterranean Forestry and Natural Resources Management - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

Design of evacuation plans for densely urbanised city centres

The high population density and tightly packed nature of some city centres make emergency planning for these urban spaces especially important, given the potential for human loss in case of disaster. Historic and recent events have made emergency service planners particularly conscious of the need for preparing evacuation plans in advance. This paper discusses a methodological approach for assisting decision-makers in designing urban evacuation plans. The approach aims at quickly and safely moving the population away from the danger zone into shelters. The plans include determining the number and location of rescue facilities, as well as the paths that people should take from their building to their assigned shelter in case of an occurrence requiring evacuation. The approach is thus of the location–allocation–routing type, through the existing streets network, and takes into account the trade-offs among different aspects of evacuation actions that inevitably come up during the planning stage. All the steps of the procedure are discussed and systematised, along with computational and practical implementation issues, in the context of a case study – the design of evacuation plans for the historical centre of an old European city.

Aedes aegypti Pharate First Instar Aseasonal Quiescence Cues Anticipatory Plasticity with Implications for Urban Vector Ecology and Control

The eggs of the dengue fever vector Aedes aegypti possess the ability to undergo an extended quiescence period hosting a fully developed first instar larvae within its chorion. As a result of this life history stage, pharate larvae can withstand months of dormancy inside the egg where they depend on stored reserves of maternal origin. This adaptation known as pharate first instar quiescence, allows A. aegypti to cope with fluctuations in water availability. An examination of this fundamental adaptation has shown that there are trade-offs associated with it. Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are frequently associated with urban habitats that may contain metal pollution. My research has demonstrated that the duration of this quiescence and the extent of nutritional depletion associated with it affects the physiology and survival of larvae that hatch in a suboptimal habitat; nutrient reserves decrease during pharate first instar quiescence and alter subsequent larval and adult fitness. The duration of quiescence compromises metal tolerance physiology and is coupled to a decrease in metallothionein mRNA levels. My findings also indicate that even low levels of environmentally relevant larval metal stress alter the parameters that determine vector capacity. My research has also demonstrated that extended pharate first instar quiescence can elicit a plastic response resulting in an adult phenotype distinct from adults reared from short quiescence eggs. Extended pharate first instar quiescence affects the performance and reproductive fitness of the adult female mosquito as well as the nutritional status of its progeny via maternal effects in an adaptive manner, i.e., anticipatory phenotypic plasticity results as a consequence of the duration of pharate first instar quiescence and alternative phenotypes may exist for this mosquito with quiescence serving as a cue possibly signaling the environmental conditions that follow a dry period. M findings may explain, in part, A. aegypti’s success as a vector and its geographic distribution and have implications for its vector capacity and control.

Towards near-threshold server processors

The popularity of cloud computing has led to a dramatic increase in the number of data centers in the world. The ever-increasing computational demands along with the slowdown in technology scaling has ushered an era of power-limited servers. Techniques such as near-threshold computing (NTC) can be used to improve energy efficiency in the post-Dennard scaling era. This paper describes an architecture based on the FD-SOI process technology for near-threshold operation in servers. Our work explores the trade-offs in energy and performance when running a wide range of applications found in private and public clouds, ranging from traditional scale-out applications, such as web search or media streaming, to virtualized banking applications. Our study demonstrates the benefits of near-threshold operation and proposes several directions to synergistically increase the energy proportionality of a near-threshold server.

Reticence or vigilance at the nest: a cruel bind for the endangered Black-capped Vireo

Breeding birds vocalize to find mates and establish and defend territories, but these same critical communications may also attract predators or brood parasites, placing birds in a cruel bind. Although vigilant birds may better maintain social relationships with mates and neighbors through frequent vocalizations, reticent birds may reduce risk to their nests by being relatively quiet and making infrequent vocalizations. Selection for vocalization patterns that minimize brood parasitism might be particularly strong for birds that are unable to fledge both their own young and the parasite. Temporal plasticity in the frequency of vocalizations near nests, however, may allow birds to balance trade-offs and optimize nest-defense strategies. The Black-capped Vireo (Vireo atricapilla) is an endangered songbird that faces intensive brood parasitism in areas where Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) are present. Vireo nests that produce cowbird fledglings always fail to fledge vireo young. We recorded vocalizations at vireo nests across three nesting stages (building, laying, and early incubation) and three periods of the day (morning, midday, and evening) and compared vocalization frequency with eventual depredation or parasitism fate as well as local cowbird density to test two hypotheses. The predator-attraction hypothesis predicts that predators will be attracted by frequent vocalizations, whereas cowbirds will parasitize nests with relatively quiet parents and less predation risk; thus, vireos will experience trade-offs between reticence and vigilance in mediating specific risks. The parasite-assessment hypothesis predicts that vireos will become more secretive as local cowbird densities increase. Vireo vocalization response to nest predation and parasitism risk interacted with nest stage, and we found little evidence of risk mediation through vocalizations except during the building stage. Vireos, however, did benefit overall by optimizing temporal patterns in vocalizations. Vireo nests were less likely to be depredated or parasitized if males vocalized most during laying and least during the middle of the day. Birds vocalized more during the midday and less during the laying period when local cowbird densities were higher, however, perhaps demonstrating limited plasticity in social communication.

Using modeling tools for implementing feasible land use and nature conservation governance systems in small islands e The Pico Island (Azores) case-study

The present study deals with the development of systematic conservation planning as management instrument in small oceanic islands, ensuring open systems of governance, and able to integrate an informed and involved participation of the stakeholders. Marxan software was used to define management areas according a set of alternative land use scenarios considering different conservation and management paradigms. Modeled conservation zones were interpreted and compared with the existing protected areas allowing more fused information for future trade-outs and stakeholder's involvement. The results, allowing the identification of Target Management Units (TMU) based on the consideration of different development scenarios proved to be consistent with a feasible development of evaluation approaches able to support sound governance systems. Moreover, the detailed geographic identification of TMU seems to be able to support participated policies towards a more sustainable management of the entire island

Life Cycle Thinking for sustainability assessment and decision-making in selected food supply chains in Costa Rica

The Agenda 2030 contains 17 integrated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SDG 12 for Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP) promotes the efficient use of resources through a systemic change that decouples economic growth from environmental degradation. The Food Systems (FS) pillar in SDG 12 entails paramount relevance due to its interconnection to many other SDGs, and even when being a crucial world food supplier, the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) Region struggles with environmental and social externalities, low investment in agriculture, inequity, food insecurity, poverty, and migration. Life Cycle Thinking (LCT) was regarded as a pertinent approach to identify hotspots and trade-offs, and support decision-making process to aid LAC Region countries as Costa Rica to diagnose sustainability and overcome certain challenges. This thesis aimed to ‘evaluate the sustainability of selected products from food supply chains in Costa Rica, to provide inputs for further sustainable decision-making, through the application of Life Cycle Thinking’. To do this, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Life Cycle Costing (LCC), and Social Life Cycle Assessment (S-LCA) evaluated the sustainability of food-waste-to-energy alternatives, and the production of green coffee, raw milk and leafy vegetables, and identified environmental, social and cost hotspots. This approach also proved to be a useful component of decision-making and policy-making processes together with other methods. LCT scientific literature led by LAC or Costa Rican researchers is still scarce; therefore, this research contributed to improve capacities in the use of LCT in this context, while offering potential replicability of the developed frameworks in similar cases. Main limitations related to the representativeness and availability of primary data; however, future research and extension activities are foreseen to increase local data availability, capacity building, and the discussion of potential integration through Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA).

A framework for risk analysis in automotive cybersecurity

We address the problem of automotive cybersecurity from the point of view of Threat Analysis and Risk Assessment (TARA). The central question that motivates the thesis is the one about the acceptability of risk, which is vital in taking a decision about the implementation of cybersecurity solutions. For this purpose, we develop a quantitative framework in which we take in input the results of risk assessment and define measures of various facets of a possible risk response; we then exploit the natural presence of trade-offs (cost versus effectiveness) to formulate the problem as a multi-objective optimization. Finally, we develop a stochastic model of the future evolution of the risk factors, by means of Markov chains; we adapt the formulations of the optimization problems to this non-deterministic context. The thesis is the result of a collaboration with the Vehicle Electrification division of Marelli, in particular with the Cybersecurity team based in Bologna; this allowed us to consider a particular instance of the problem, deriving from a real TARA, in order to test both the deterministic and the stochastic framework in a real world application. The collaboration also explains why in the work we often assume the point of view of a tier-1 supplier; however, the analyses performed can be adapted to any other level of the supply chain.

Mars delivery service - development of the electro-mechanical systems of the Sample Fetch Rover for the Mars Sample Return Campaign

This thesis describes the development of the Sample Fetch Rover (SFR), studied for Mars Sample Return (MSR), an international campaign carried out in cooperation between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Space Agency (ESA). The focus of this document is the design of the electro-mechanical systems of the rover. After placing this work into the general context of robotic planetary exploration and summarising the state of the art for what concerns Mars rovers, the architecture of the Mars Sample Return Campaign is presented. A complete overview of the current SFR architecture is provided, touching upon all the main subsystems of the spacecraft. For each area, it is discussed what are the design drivers, the chosen solutions and whether they use heritage technology (in particular from the ExoMars Rover) or new developments. This research focuses on two topics of particular interest, due to their relevance for the mission and the novelty of their design: locomotion and sample acquisition, which are discussed in depth. The early SFR locomotion concepts are summarised, covering the initial trade-offs and discarded designs for higher traverse performance. Once a consolidated architecture was reached, the locomotion subsystem was developed further, defining the details of the suspension, actuators, deployment mechanisms and wheels. This technology is presented here in detail, including some key analysis and test results that support the design and demonstrate how it responds to the mission requirements. Another major electro-mechanical system developed as part of this work is the one dedicated to sample tube acquisition. The concept of operations of this machinery was defined to be robust against the unknown conditions that characterise the mission. The design process led to a highly automated robotic system which is described here in its main components: vision system, robotic arm and tube storage.

Reconciling the Irreconcilable? Sovereign Debt Restructuring and the Principles of International Law. A Law and Economics Perspective

This Thesis focuses on the principles of international law relevant to the resolution of legal disputes arising from sovereign insolvency conflicts. It attempts to contribute to the “incremental” approach literature by identifying principles, justifying their application in litigation and assessing whether they may help to reconcile the trade-offs prevalent in that context. For that purpose, this Thesis distinguishes between two different types of principles. First, it investigates the “Principles of Public International Law” (henceforth, “PIL principles”). Said category refers to norms of the law of nations which can be considered functionally and structurally similar to domestic constitutional principles (i.e., that can be regarded as “optimization” or “prima facie” requirements). This Thesis underscores the PIL principles protecting the interests of the creditors and citizens as well as the “public interest”, arguing that decision makers face a trade-off between these principles in the context of restructurings. Secondly, this Thesis inquires into the “general principles of domestic law” (henceforth, “GPDs”) which can be applied in sovereign debt restructuring. Two GPDs are identified: a “stay” on litigation and a “cram down” on dissenting creditors’ claims. Although both principles have been identified by the prior literature, this work advances a small but significant “twist” in the methodology used for that purpose: it relies exclusively on functional and comparative analysis. Moreover, this work justifies the application of said GPDs for two jurisdictions: New York and Germany. Finally, it posits that those GPDs can help to mitigate the trade-offs between PIL principles, thus reconciling the interests at stake.

Distributed ledger technologies between anonymity and transparency: AML/CFT regulation of cryptocurrency ecosystems in the EU

The advent of Bitcoin suggested a disintermediated economy in which Internet users can take part directly. The conceptual disruption brought about by this Internet of Money (IoM) mirrors the cross-industry impacts of blockchain and distributed ledger technologies (DLTs). While related instances of non-centralisation thwart regulatory efforts to establish accountability, in the financial domain further challenges arise from the presence in the IoM of two seemingly opposing traits: anonymity and transparency. Indeed, DLTs are often described as architecturally transparent, but the perceived level of anonymity of cryptocurrency transfers fuels fears of illicit exploitation. This is a primary concern for the framework to prevent money laundering and the financing of terrorism and proliferation (AML/CFT/CPF), and a top priority both globally and at the EU level. Nevertheless, the anonymous and transparent features of the IoM are far from clear-cut, and the same is true for its levels of disintermediation and non-centralisation. Almost fifteen years after the first Bitcoin transaction, the IoM today comprises a diverse set of socio-technical ecosystems. Building on an analysis of their phenomenology, this dissertation shows how there is more to their traits of anonymity and transparency than it may seem, and how these features range across a spectrum of combinations and degrees. In this context, trade-offs can be evaluated by referring to techno-legal benchmarks, established through socio-technical assessments grounded on teleological interpretation. Against this backdrop, this work provides framework-level recommendations for the EU to respond to the twofold nature of the IoM legitimately and effectively. The methodology cherishes the mutual interaction between regulation and technology when drafting regulation whose compliance can be eased by design. This approach mitigates the risk of overfitting in a fast-changing environment, while acknowledging specificities in compliance with the risk-based approach that sits at the core of the AML/CFT/CPF regime.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Credit Cards vs. Nailing Down Home Repair Rip-Offs & Disputes, April 2011

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: Nailing Down Home Repair Rip-Offs & Disputes

Does international trade produce convergence?

In spite of increasing globalization around the world, the effects of international trade on economic growth are not very clear. I consider an endogenous economic growth model in an open economy with the Home Market Effect (HME) and non-homothetic preferences in order to identify some determinants of the different results in this relationship. The model shows how trade between similar countries leads to convergence in economic growth when knowledge spillovers are present, while trade between very asymmetric countries produces divergence and may become trade in a poverty or growth trap. The results for welfare move in the same direction as economic growth since convergence implies increases in welfare for both countries, while divergence leads to increases in welfare for the largest country and the opposite for its commercial partner in the absence of knowledge spillovers. International trade does not implicate greater welfare as is usual in a static context under CES preferences.

Wildlife Trade In Brazil: A Closer Look At Wild Pets Welfare Issues.

Wild animals have been kept as pets for centuries, in Brazil companionship is one of the main reasons why wild species are legally bred and traded. This paper is an attempt to call the attention for problems concerning the welfare of wild pets involved in the trading system in Brazil. Some issues presented are: a) the significant increase in the number of wildlife breeders and traders and the difficulties faced by of the Brazilian government in controlling this activity; b) the main welfare issues faced by breeders and owners of wild pets; and c) the destination of wild pets no longer wanted. Finally, some recommendations are made having the welfare of the animals as a priority.

Trade unions and the economic performance of brazilian establishments

Este artigo analisa, pela primeira vez na literatura, o impacto dos sindicatos de trabalhadores em vários indicadores de desempenho econômico de firmas industriais brasileiras. Realizou-se uma pesquisa retrospectiva sobre a densidade sindical de 1000 estabelecimentos industriais brasileiros e seus resultados foram combinados aos indicadores de desempenho econômico da Pesquisa Industrial Anual (PIA) de 1990 a 2000. Os resultados indicam que a relação entre a densidade sindical na firma e seus salários, emprego e produtividade, é não-linear, ou seja, um aumento no grau de sindicalização leva a um melhor desempenho, porém a taxas decrescentes. Observou-se, também, uma relação negativa entre sindicalização e rentabilidade. Finalmente, estabelecimentos que introduziram mecanismos de 'participação nos lucros' aumentaram sua produtividade e rentabilidade no período e pagaram maiores salários nas firmas onde o grau de sindicalização era maior.