Selección de información para la toma de decisiones en el sector transporte = The choice of information for decision making in the transport sector

Incluye Bibliografía

Artificial Immune Systems Applied to the Analysis of Structural Integrity of a Building

This paper presents the application of artificial immune systems for analysis of the structural integrity of a building. Inspired by a biological process, it uses the negative selection algorithm to perform the identification and characterization of structural failure. This paper presents the application of artificial immune systems for analysis of the structural integrity of a building. Inspired by a biological process, it uses the negative selection algorithm to perform the identification and characterization of structural failure. This methodology can assist professionals in the inspection of mechanical and civil structures, to identify and characterize flaws, in order to perform preventative maintenance to ensure the integrity of the structure and decision-making. In order to evaluate the methodology was made modeling a two-story building and several situations were simulated (base-line condition and improper conditions), yielding a database of signs, which were used as input data for the negative selection algorithm. The results obtained by the present method efficiency, robustness and accuracy.

Emergetic ternary diagrams: five examples for application in environmental accounting for decision-making

In a recent paper, "A combined tool for environmental scientists and decision makers: ternary diagrams and emergy accounting." [Giannettti BF, Barrella FA, Almeida CMVB. A combined tool for environment scientists and decision makers: ternary diagrams and emergy accounting. J Clean Prod, in press http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2004.09.002] Ternary diagrams were proposed as a graphical tool to assist emergy analysis. The graphical representation of the emergy accounting data makes it possible to compare processes and systems with and without ecosystem services, to evaluate improvements and to follow the system performance over time. The graphic tool is versatile and adaptable to represent products, processes, systems, countries, and different periods of time.The use and the versatility of ternary diagrams for assisting in performing emergy analyses are illustrated by means of five examples taken from the literature, which are presented and discussed. It is shown that emergetic ternary diagram's properties assist the assessment of the system of the system efficiency, its dependance upon renewable and non-renewable inputs and the environmental support for dilution and abatement of process emissions. With the aid of ternary diagrams, details such as the interaction between systems and between systems and the environment are recognized and evaluated. Such a tool for graphical analysis allows a transparent presentation of the results and can serve as an interface between emergy scientists and decision makers, provided the meaning of each line in the diagram is carefully explained and understood. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Structural Integrity Using an ARTMAP-Fuzzy Artificial Neural Network

This paper presents the application of artificial neural networks in the analysis of the structural integrity of a building. The main objective is to apply an artificial neural network based on adaptive resonance theory, called ARTMAP-Fuzzy neural network and apply it to the identification and characterization of structural failure. This methodology can help professionals in the inspection of structures, to identify and characterize flaws in order to conduct preventative maintenance to ensure the integrity of the structure and decision-making. In order to validate the methodology was modeled a building of two walk, and from this model were simulated various situations (base-line condition and improper conditions), resulting in a database of signs, which were used as input data for ARTMAP-Fuzzy network. The results show efficiency, robustness and accuracy.

Effects of age on aerobic capacity in heart failure patients under beta-blocker therapy: Possible impact in clinical decision-making?

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of the prevalence and nutritional and social determinants of overweight in a population of schoolchildren: a cross-sectional analysis of 5,037 children

Objective: To evaluate the prevalence and nutritional and social determinants of overweight in a population of schoolchildren in Southern Brazil. Methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study of 5,037 children of both genders, between 6 and 10.9 years of age, from public and private schools of Maringa, Parana, Brazil. Evaluation of factors associated with excess weight (overweight and obesity) included gender, age, school type, socioeconomic level, education of the head of the family, eating habits, and means of commuting to school. After univariate analysis (Fisher's exact test), we adjusted a logistic regression model and used Wald's test for decision-making (p < 0.05). Results: The mean age was 8.7 +/- 1.3 years, with 52.8% females; 79.1% of the students attended public school and 54.6% had families of socioeconomic class A or B. Regarding nutritional status, 24% of children were overweight (7% obesity, 17% overweight). Being male, attending a private school, and having a head of the family with over four years of education were significantly associated with excess weight. In relation to food, inadequate intake of,carbohydrates was associated with a 48% greater chance of overweight/obesity (p < 0.001; OR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.25-1.76), Conclusion: The prevalence of overweight found in this study is approximate to that reported in national studies. Its association with gender and inadequate food intake indicates that these factors should be considered in initiatives aimed at preventive measures in childhood.

ESMO Consensus Guidelines for management of patients with colon and rectal cancer. A personalized approach to clinical decision making

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the most common tumour type in both sexes combined in Western countries. Although screening programmes including the implementation of faecal occult blood test and colonoscopy might be able to reduce mortality by removing precursor lesions and by making diagnosis at an earlier stage, the burden of disease and mortality is still high. Improvement of diagnostic and treatment options increased staging accuracy, functional outcome for early stages as well as survival. Although high quality surgery is still the mainstay of curative treatment, the management of CRC must be a multi-modal approach performed by an experienced multi-disciplinary expert team. Optimal choice of the individual treatment modality according to disease localization and extent, tumour biology and patient factors is able to maintain quality of life, enables long-term survival and even cure in selected patients by a combination of chemotherapy and surgery. Treatment decisions must be based on the available evidence, which has been the basis for this consensus conference-based guideline delivering a clear proposal for diagnostic and treatment measures in each stage of rectal and colon cancer and the individual clinical situations. This ESMO guideline is recommended to be used as the basis for treatment and management decisions.

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Sustainability indicators for environmental management and decision making

The general objective of this research is to explore theories and methodologies of sustainability indicators, environmental management and decision making disciplines with the operational purpose of producing scientific, robust and relevant information for supporting system understanding and decision making in real case studies. Several tools have been applied in order to increase the understanding of socio-ecological systems as well as providing relevant information on the choice between alternatives. These tools have always been applied having in mind the complexity of the issues and the uncertainty tied to the partial knowledge of the systems under study. Two case studies with specific application to performances measurement (environmental performances in the case of the K8 approach and sustainable development performances in the case of the EU Sustainable Development Strategy) and a case study about the selection of sustainable development indicators amongst Municipalities in Scotland, are discussed in the first part of the work. In the second part of the work, the common denominator among subjects consists in the application of spatial indices and indicators to address operational problems in land use management within the territory of the Ravenna province (Italy). The main conclusion of the thesis is that a ‘perfect’ methodological approach which always produces the best results in assessing sustainability performances does not exist. Rather, there is a pool of correct approaches answering different evaluation questions, to be used when methodologies fit the purpose of the analysis. For this reason, methodological limits and conceptual assumptions as well as consistency and transparency of the assessment, become the key factors for assessing the quality of the analysis.

Variability analysis of discrete event series and wavefront patterns in surface electrocardiogram: contributions to psychophysiological and clinical research

The surface electrocardiogram (ECG) is an established diagnostic tool for the detection of abnormalities in the electrical activity of the heart. The interest of the ECG, however, extends beyond the diagnostic purpose. In recent years, studies in cognitive psychophysiology have related heart rate variability (HRV) to memory performance and mental workload. The aim of this thesis was to analyze the variability of surface ECG derived rhythms, at two different time scales: the discrete-event time scale, typical of beat-related features (Objective I), and the “continuous” time scale of separated sources in the ECG (Objective II), in selected scenarios relevant to psychophysiological and clinical research, respectively. Objective I) Joint time-frequency and non-linear analysis of HRV was carried out, with the goal of assessing psychophysiological workload (PPW) in response to working memory engaging tasks. Results from fourteen healthy young subjects suggest the potential use of the proposed indices in discriminating PPW levels in response to varying memory-search task difficulty. Objective II) A novel source-cancellation method based on morphology clustering was proposed for the estimation of the atrial wavefront in atrial fibrillation (AF) from body surface potential maps. Strong direct correlation between spectral concentration (SC) of atrial wavefront and temporal variability of the spectral distribution was shown in persistent AF patients, suggesting that with higher SC, shorter observation time is required to collect spectral distribution, from which the fibrillatory rate is estimated. This could be time and cost effective in clinical decision-making. The results held for reduced leads sets, suggesting that a simplified setup could also be considered, further reducing the costs. In designing the methods of this thesis, an online signal processing approach was kept, with the goal of contributing to real-world applicability. An algorithm for automatic assessment of ambulatory ECG quality, and an automatic ECG delineation algorithm were designed and validated.

International Agricultural Trade under Regulatory Asymmetry: An Economic Analysis of SME Export Behavior

Over the last three decades, international agricultural trade has grown significantly. Technological advances in transportation logistics and storage have created opportunities to ship anything almost anywhere. Bilateral and multilateral trade agreements have also opened new pathways to an increasingly global market place. Yet, international agricultural trade is often constrained by differences in regulatory regimes. The impact of “regulatory asymmetry” is particularly acute for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) that lack resources and expertise to successfully operate in markets that have substantially different regulatory structures. As governments seek to encourage the development of SMEs, policy makers often confront the critical question of what ultimately motivates SME export behavior. Specifically, there is considerable interest in understanding how SMEs confront the challenges of regulatory asymmetry. Neoclassical models of the firm generally emphasize expected profit maximization under uncertainty, however these approaches do not adequately explain the entrepreneurial decision under regulatory asymmetry. Behavioral theories of the firm offer a far richer understanding of decision making by taking into account aspirations and adaptive performance in risky environments. This paper develops an analytical framework for decision making of a single agent. Considering risk, uncertainty and opportunity cost, the analysis focuses on the export behavior response of an SME in a situation of regulatory asymmetry. Drawing on the experience of fruit processor in Muzaffarpur, India, who must consider different regulatory environments when shipping fruit treated with sulfur dioxide, the study dissects the firm-level decision using @Risk, a Monte Carlo computational tool.

Integration of cognitive and affective processes in perception and decision-making

The relationship between emotion and cognition is a topic that raises great interest in research. Recently, a view of these two processes as interactive and mutually influencing each other has become predominant. This dissertation investigates the reciprocal influences of emotion and cognition, both at behavioral and neural level, in two specific fields, such as attention and decision-making. Experimental evidence on how emotional responses may affect perceptual and attentional processes has been reported. In addition, the impact of three factors, such as personality traits, motivational needs and social context, in modulating the influence that emotion exerts on perception and attention has been investigated. Moreover, the influence of cognition on emotional responses in decision-making has been demonstrated. The current experimental evidence showed that cognitive brain regions such as the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex are causally implicated in regulation of emotional responses and that this has an effect at both pre and post decisional stages. There are two main conclusions of this dissertation: firstly, emotion exerts a strong influence on perceptual and attentional processes but, at the same time, this influence may also be modulated by other factors internal and external to the individuals. Secondly, cognitive processes may modulate emotional prepotent responses, by serving a regulative function critical to driving and shaping human behavior in line with current goals.

Diversity and local democracy. The case of Republic of Macedonia - implications of ethnic diversity on municipal decision making and organizational performance

This research seeks to review the level of knowledge achieved in interpreting the relationship between the ethnic diversity at the workplace in the public sector and the organizational performance; as well as seeks to contribute in understanding the implications of this relationship. The study commenced with investigating the academic research in the relevant area addressing the following research questions: (a) How are diversity management and organizational performance conceptualized? (b) What are the existing findings of research concerning diversity at the workplace in the public organizations and organizational performance? (c) What factors intervene the relationship between the diversity and organizational performance? Based on the findings from the review of the academic research, this study seeks to contribute in understanding the ethnic diversity – performance relationship and its mplications at the local level in the Macedonian context. The reform process in Macedonia as a multicultural society, where for many years, inter-ethnic relations have been one of the most sensitive political issues, affecting both the stability of the country and the progress, focused mainly on the implementation of the decentralization and inclusion of ethnic minorities in the decision making process. With the implementation of the Ohrid Framework Agreement workforce at the units of local self-government in Republic of Macedonia is becoming more balanced with respect to ethnic minorities, with more workforce participation than ever by Albanians, Turks, Roma and other minorities. As public organizations at local level become more diverse along ethnic lines, it makes sense to pay more attention to how different ethnic groups interact with one another at work. Thus it gives additional importance on the research question addressed in the study and gives significance of the research in a broader scope.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Retrofit Options to Support Decision Making

How to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of repair/retrofit intervention vs. demolition/replacement and what level of shaking intensity can the chosen repairing/retrofit technique sustain are open questions affecting either the pre-earthquake prevention, the post-earthquake emergency and the reconstruction phases. The (mis)conception that the cost of retrofit interventions would increase linearly with the achieved seismic performance (%NBS) often discourages stakeholders to consider repair/retrofit options in a post-earthquake damage situation. Similarly, in a pre-earthquake phase, the minimum (by-law) level of %NBS might be targeted, leading in some cases to no-action. Furthermore, the performance measure enforcing owners to take action, the %NBS, is generally evaluated deterministically. Not directly reflecting epistemic and aleatory uncertainties, the assessment can result in misleading confidence on the expected performance. The present study aims at contributing to the delicate decision-making process of repair/retrofit vs. demolition/replacement, by developing a framework to assist stakeholders with the evaluation of the effects in terms of long-term losses and benefits of an increment in their initial investment (targeted retrofit level) and highlighting the uncertainties hidden behind a deterministic approach. For a pre-1970 case study building, different retrofit solutions are considered, targeting different levels of %NBS, and the actual probability of reaching Collapse when considering a suite of ground-motions is evaluated, providing a correlation between %NBS and Risk. Both a simplified and a probabilistic loss modelling are then undertaken to study the relationship between %NBS and expected direct and indirect losses.

Comprehensive analysis of CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP)-high, -low, and -negative colorectal cancers based on protein marker expression and molecular features

CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) is being investigated for its role in the molecular and prognostic classification of colorectal cancer patients but is also emerging as a factor with the potential to influence clinical decision-making. We report a comprehensive analysis of clinico-pathological and molecular features (KRAS, BRAF and microsatellite instability, MSI) as well as of selected tumour- and host-related protein markers characterizing CIMP-high (CIMP-H), -low, and -negative colorectal cancers. Immunohistochemical analysis for 48 protein markers and molecular analysis of CIMP (CIMP-H: ? 4/5 methylated genes), MSI (MSI-H: ? 2 instable genes), KRAS, and BRAF were performed on 337 colorectal cancers. Simple and multiple regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were performed. CIMP-H was found in 24 cases (7.1%) and linked (p < 0.0001) to more proximal tumour location, BRAF mutation, MSI-H, MGMT methylation (p = 0.022), advanced pT classification (p = 0.03), mucinous histology (p = 0.069), and less frequent KRAS mutation (p = 0.067) compared to CIMP-low or -negative cases. Of the 48 protein markers, decreased levels of RKIP (p = 0.0056), EphB2 (p = 0.0045), CK20 (p = 0.002), and Cdx2 (p < 0.0001) and increased numbers of CD8+ intra-epithelial lymphocytes (p < 0.0001) were related to CIMP-H, independently of MSI status. In addition to the expected clinico-pathological and molecular associations, CIMP-H colorectal cancers are characterized by a loss of protein markers associated with differentiation, and metastasis suppression, and have increased CD8+ T-lymphocytes regardless of MSI status. In particular, Cdx2 loss seems to strongly predict CIMP-H in both microsatellite-stable (MSS) and MSI-H colorectal cancers. Cdx2 is proposed as a surrogate marker for CIMP-H.