Revisiting the Dollar-Euro Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Evidence from Multivariate Unobserved Components Models

We propose an alternative approach to obtaining a permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER), based on an unobserved components (UC) model. This approach offers a number of advantages over the conventional cointegration-based PEER. Firstly, we do not rely on the prerequisite that cointegration has to be found between the real exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals to obtain non-spurious long-run relationships and the PEER. Secondly, the impact that the permanent and transitory components of the macroeconomic fundamentals have on the real exchange rate can be modelled separately in the UC model. This is important for variables where the long and short-run effects may drive the real exchange rate in opposite directions, such as the relative government expenditure ratio. We also demonstrate that our proposed exchange rate models have good out-of sample forecasting properties. Our approach would be a useful technique for central banks to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate and to forecast the long-run movements of the exchange rate.

A New Model Of Trend Inflation

This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. The bounds placed on trend inflation mean that standard econometric methods for estimating linear Gaussian state space models cannot be used and we develop a posterior simulation algorithm for estimating the bounded trend inflation model. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model.

Native-like, long synthetic peptides as components of sub-unit vaccines: practical and theoretical considerations for their use in humans.

Vaccines have been used as a successful tool in medicine by way of controlling many major diseases. In spite of this, vaccines today represent only a handful of all infectious diseases. Therefore, there is a pressing demand for improvements of existing vaccines with particular reference to higher efficacy and undisputed safety profiles. To this effect, as an alternative to available vaccine technologies, there has been a drive to develop vaccine candidate polypeptides by chemical synthesis. In our laboratory, we have recently developed a technology to manufacture long synthetic peptides of up to 130 residues, which are correctly folded and biologically active. This paper discusses the advantages of the molecularly defined, long synthetic peptide approach in the context of vaccine design, development and use in human vaccination.

The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU

We use a panel of euro area countries to assess the determinants of long-term sovereign bond yield spreads over the period 1999.01-2010.12. We find that, unlike the period preceding the global financial crisis, European government bond yield spreads are wellexplained by macro- and fiscal fundamentals over the crisis period. We also find that the menu of macro and fiscal risks priced by markets has been significantly enriched since March 2009, including the risk of the crisis’ transmission among EMU member states, international risk and liquidity risk. Finally, we find that sovereign credit ratings are statistically significant in explaining spreads, yet compared to macro- and fiscal fundamentals their role is limited.

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Developing a predictive understanding of subsurface flow and transport is complicated by the disparity of scales across which controlling hydrological properties and processes span. Conventional techniques for characterizing hydrogeological properties (such as pumping, slug, and flowmeter tests) typically rely on borehole access to the subsurface. Because their spatial extent is commonly limited to the vicinity near the wellbores, these methods often cannot provide sufficient information to describe key controls on subsurface flow and transport. The field of hydrogeophysics has evolved in recent years to explore the potential that geophysical methods hold for improving the quantification of subsurface properties and processes relevant for hydrological investigations. This chapter is intended to familiarize hydrogeologists and water-resource professionals with the state of the art as well as existing challenges associated with hydrogeophysics. We provide a review of the key components of hydrogeophysical studies, which include: geophysical methods commonly used for shallow subsurface characterization; petrophysical relationships used to link the geophysical properties to hydrological properties and state variables; and estimation or inversion methods used to integrate hydrological and geophysical measurements in a consistent manner. We demonstrate the use of these different geophysical methods, petrophysical relationships, and estimation approaches through several field-scale case studies. Among other applications, the case studies illustrate the use of hydrogeophysical approaches to quantify subsurface architecture that influence flow (such as hydrostratigraphy and preferential pathways); delineate anomalous subsurface fluid bodies (such as contaminant plumes); monitor hydrological processes (such as infiltration, freshwater-seawater interface dynamics, and flow through fractures); and estimate hydrological properties (such as hydraulic conductivity) and state variables (such as water content). The case studies have been chosen to illustrate how hydrogeophysical approaches can yield insights about complex subsurface hydrological processes, provide input that improves flow and transport predictions, and provide quantitative information over field-relevant spatial scales. The chapter concludes by describing existing hydrogeophysical challenges and associated research needs. In particular, we identify the area of quantitative watershed hydrogeophysics as a frontier area, where significant effort is required to advance the estimation of hydrological properties and processes (and their uncertainties) over spatial scales relevant to the management of water resources and contaminants.

Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model

This paper employs an unobserved component model that incorporates a set of economic fundamentals to obtain the Euro-Dollar permanent equilibrium exchange rates (PEER) for the period 1975Q1 to 2008Q4. The results show that for most of the sample period, the Euro-Dollar exchange rate closely followed the values implied by the PEER. The only significant deviations from the PEER occurred in the years immediately before and after the introduction of the single European currency. The forecasting exercise shows that incorporating economic fundamentals provides a better long-run exchange rate forecasting performance than a random walk process.

Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in the Seychelles according to different definitions, contribution of components, and agreement between different definitions

Background: The metabolic syndrome (MS) represents a cluster of metabolic disorders that predicts diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Several definitions exist and further descriptive and prospective data are needed to compare these definitions and their significance in different populations. Objective: We examined, in a country of the African region, i) the prevalence of MS according to three major definitions (ATP, IDF, WHO); ii) the contribution of individual MS components; and iii) the agreement between the three considered definitions. We also examined the prevalence among diabetics and non-diabetics. Methods: We conducted an examination survey in a sample representative of the general population aged 25-64 of the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African region), attended by 1255 persons (participation rate of 80.2%). Results: The prevalence of MS was similar with either definition of MS in men (24%--25%) but differed in women (WHO: 25%, ATP: 32%; IDF: 35%). Upon exclusion of diabetic persons, the prevalence was 5-10% lower for all three MS definitions: most diabetic persons had MS although a substantial proportion of diabetic men aged 45--64 did not have MS. The following components were found most often among persons with MS: 90% had high blood pressure (HBP) and 78% had obesity (ATP); 95% had obesity and 84% had HBP (WHO), and 89% had HBP and 75% had impaired glucose regulation (IDF) - not considering impaired glucose regulation and obesity that are compulsory components of the WHO and IDF definitions, respectively. Among persons with MS based on either of the three definitions (37% of total population), less than 80% met both ATP and IDF criteria, 67% both WHO and IDF criteria, 54% both WHO and ATP criteria and only 37% met all three definitions. Conclusion: We found a fairly high prevalence of MS in an African population. However, because there was only poor agreement between the 3 MS definitions, the fairly similar proportions of MS based on ATP, IDF or WHO definitions identified, to a substantial extent, different subjects as having MS.

Studies on bioactive components from Chinese medicinal plants

Several novel bioactive components isolated from Chinese medicinal plants will be presented. These include novel maytansinoid tumor, inhibitors, some new ent-kaurane and rosane diterpenoids from Mallotus anomalus Meer et Chun (Euphorbiaceae), as well asnovel insecticide, stemona alkaloids from Stemona parviflora C. H. Wright (Stemonaceae). Both are native plants of Hainan island, Chine. 2D NMR techniques such as mono and hetero-COSY, NOESY, COLOC as well as H-NMR line broadening effect were utilized for structure elucidation. The separation techniques, struture elucidations and bioassay results will be reported.

Dissecting carotenoid from structural components of carotenoid-based coloration: a field experiment with great tits (Parus major).

Carotenoid-based yellowish to red plumage colors are widespread visual signals used in sexual and social communication. To understand their ultimate signaling functions, it is important to identify the proximate mechanism promoting variation in coloration. Carotenoid-based colors combine structural and pigmentary components, but the importance of the contribution of structural components to variation in pigment-based colors (i.e., carotenoid-based colors) has been undervalued. In a field experiment with great tits (Parus major), we combined a brood size manipulation with a simultaneous carotenoid supplementation in order to disentangle the effects of carotenoid availability and early growth condition on different components of the yellow breast feathers. By defining independent measures of feather carotenoid content (absolute carotenoid chroma) and background structure (background reflectance), we demonstrate that environmental factors experienced during the nestling period, namely, early growth conditions and carotenoid availability, contribute independently to variation in yellow plumage coloration. While early growth conditions affected the background reflectance of the plumage, the availability of carotenoids affected the absolute carotenoid chroma, the peak of maximum ultraviolet reflectance, and the overall shape, that is, chromatic information of the reflectance curves. These findings demonstrate that environment-induced variation in background structure contributes significantly to intraspecific variation in yellow carotenoid-based plumage coloration.

Developments in the scientific and clinical understanding of gout.

Gout is the most common form of inflammatory arthritis in the elderly. In the last two decades, both hyperuricemia and gout have increased markedly and similar trends in the epidemiology of the metabolic syndrome have been observed. Recent studies provide new insights into the transporters that handle uric acid in the kidney as well as possible links between these transporters, hyperuricemia, and hypertension. The treatment of established hyperuricemia has also seen new developments. Febuxostat and PEG-uricase are two novel treatments that have been evaluated and shown to be highly effective in the management of hyperuricemia, thus enlarging the therapeutic options available to lower uric acid levels. Monosodium urate (MSU) crystals are potent inducers of inflammation. Within the joint, they trigger a local inflammatory reaction, neutrophil recruitment, and the production of pro-inflammatory cytokines as well as other inflammatory mediators. Experimentally, the uptake of MSU crystals by monocytes involves interactions with components of the innate immune system, namely Toll-like receptor (TLR)-2, TLR-4, and CD14. Intracellularly, MSU crystals activate multiple processes that lead to the formation of the NALP-3 (NACHT, LRR, and pyrin domain-containing-3) inflammasome complex that in turn processes pro-interleukin (IL)-1 to yield mature IL-1 beta, which is then secreted. The inflammatory effects of MSU are IL-1-dependent and can be blocked by IL-1 inhibitors. These advances in the understanding of hyperuricemia and gout provide new therapeutic targets for the future.

Is the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy improved by the use of explicit panel-based appropriateness criteria?

BACKGROUND: Increasing the appropriateness of use of upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy is important to improve quality of care while at the same time containing costs. This study explored whether detailed explicit appropriateness criteria significantly improve the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy. METHODS: Consecutive patients referred for upper GI endoscopy at 6 centers (1 university hospital, 2 district hospitals, 3 gastroenterology practices) were prospectively included over a 6-month period. After controlling for disease presentation and patient characteristics, the relationship between the appropriateness of upper GI endoscopy, as assessed by explicit Swiss criteria developed by the RAND/UCLA panel method, and the presence of relevant endoscopic lesions was analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 2088 patients (60% outpatients, 57% men) were included. Analysis was restricted to the 1681 patients referred for diagnostic upper GI endoscopy. Forty-six percent of upper GI endoscopies were judged to be appropriate, 15% uncertain, and 39% inappropriate by the explicit criteria. No cancer was found in upper GI endoscopies judged to be inappropriate. Upper GI endoscopies judged appropriate or uncertain yielded significantly more relevant lesions (60%) than did those judged to be inappropriate (37%; odds ratio 2.6: 95% CI [2.2, 3.2]). In multivariate analyses, the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy was significantly influenced by appropriateness, patient gender and age, treatment setting, and symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Upper GI endoscopies performed for appropriate indications resulted in detecting significantly more clinically relevant lesions than did those performed for inappropriate indications. In addition, no upper GI endoscopy that resulted in a diagnosis of cancer was judged to be inappropriate. The use of such criteria improves patient selection for upper GI endoscopy and can thus contribute to efforts aimed at enhancing the quality and efficiency of care. (Gastrointest Endosc 2000;52:333-41).

Llibreria de components per a la modelització del procés de sortides de passatgers d'un aeroport

Nota: Aquest document conté originàriament altre material i/o programari només consultable a la Biblioteca de Ciència i Tecnologia.