Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions

There has been a great deal of recent interest in producing weather forecasts on the 2–6 week sub-seasonal timescale, which bridges the gap between medium-range (0–10 day) and seasonal (3–6 month) forecasts. While much of this interest is focused on the potential applications of skilful forecasts on the sub-seasonal range, understanding the potential sources of sub-seasonal forecast skill is a challenging and interesting problem, particularly because of the likely state-dependence of this skill (Hudson et al 2011). One such potential source of state-dependent skill for the Northern Hemisphere in winter is the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events (Sigmond et al 2013). Here we show, by analysing a set of sub-seasonal hindcasts, that there is enhanced predictability of surface circulation not only when the stratospheric vortex is anomalously weak following SSWs but also when the vortex is extremely strong. Sub-seasonal forecasts initialized during strong vortex events are able to successfully capture the associated surface temperature and circulation anomalies. This results in an enhancement of Northern annular mode forecast skill compared to forecasts initialized during the cases when the stratospheric state is close to climatology. We demonstrate that the enhancement of skill for forecasts initialized during periods of strong vortex conditions is comparable to that achieved for forecasts initialized during weak events. This result indicates that additional confidence can be placed in sub-seasonal forecasts when the stratospheric polar vortex is significantly disturbed from its normal state.

The combined influences of westerly phase of the quasi biennial oscillation and 11-year solar maximum conditions on the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter circulation

The combined influences of the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO-W) and solar maximum (Smax) conditions on the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter circulation are investigated using reanalysis data and Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations. The composite analysis for the reanalysis data indicates strengthened polar vortex in December followed by weakened polar vortex in February–March for QBO-W during Smax (QBO-W/Smax) conditions. This relationship need not be specific to QBO-W/Smax conditions but may just require strengthened vortex in December, which is more likely under QBO-W/Smax. Both the reanalysis data and CCM simulations suggest that dynamical processes of planetary wave propagation and meridional circulation related to QBO-W around polar vortex in December are similar in character to those related to Smax; furthermore, both processes may work in concert to maintain stronger vortex during QBO-W/Smax. In the reanalysis data, the strengthened polar vortex in December is associated with the development of north–south dipole tropospheric anomaly in the Atlantic sector similar to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during December–January. The structure of the north–south dipole anomaly has zonal wavenumber 1 (WN1) component, where the longitude of anomalous ridge overlaps with that of climatological ridge in the North Atlantic in January. This implies amplification of the WN1 wave and results in the enhancement of the upward WN1 propagation from troposphere into stratosphere in January, leading to the weakened polar vortex in February–March. Although WN2 waves do not play a direct role in forcing the stratospheric vortex evolution, their tropospheric response to QBO-W/Smax conditions appears to be related to the maintenance of the NAO-like anomaly in the high-latitude troposphere in January. These results may provide a possible explanation for the mechanisms underlying the seasonal evolution of wintertime polar vortex anomalies during QBO-W/Smax conditions and the role of troposphere in this evolution.

A potential vorticity signature for the cold sector of winter extratropical cyclones

The cold sector of a midlatitude storm is characterized by distinctive features such as strong surface heat fluxes, shallow convection, convective precipitation and synoptic subsidence. In order to evaluate the contribution of processes occurring in the cold sector to the mean climate, an appropriate indicator is needed. This study describes the systematic presence of negative potential vorticity (PV) behind the cold front of extratropical storms in winter. The origin of this negative PV is analyzed using ERA-Interim data, and PV tendencies averaged over the depth of the boundary layer are evaluated. It is found that negative PV is generated by diabatic processes in the cold sector and by Ekman pumping at the low centre, whereas positive PV is generated by Ekman advection of potential temperature in the warm sector. We suggest here that negative PV at low levels can be used to identify the cold sector. A PV-based indicator is applied to estimate the respective contributions of the cold sector and the remainder of the storm to upward motion and large-scale and convective precipitation. We compare the PV-based indicator with other distinctive features that could be used as markers of the cold sector and find that potential vorticity is the best criterion when taken alone and the best when combined with any other.

Impacts of parameterized orographic drag on the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation

A recent intercomparison exercise proposed by the Working Group for Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) revealed that the parameterized, or unresolved, surface stress in weather forecast models is highly model-dependent, especially over orography. Models of comparable resolution differ over land by as much as 20% in zonal mean total subgrid surface stress (Ttot). The way Ttot is partitioned between the different parameterizations is also model-dependent. In this study, we simulated in a particular model an increase in Ttot comparable with the spread found in the WGNE intercomparison. This increase was simulated in two ways, namely by increasing independently the contributions to Ttot of the turbulent orographic form drag scheme (TOFD) and of the orographic low-level blocking scheme (BLOCK). Increasing the parameterized orographic drag leads to significant changes in surface pressure, zonal wind and temperature in the Northern Hemisphere during winter both in 10 day weather forecasts and in seasonal integrations. However, the magnitude of these changes in circulation strongly depends on which scheme is modified. In 10 day forecasts, stronger changes are found when the TOFD stress is increased, while on seasonal time scales the effects are of comparable magnitude, although different in detail. At these time scales, the BLOCK scheme affects the lower stratosphere winds through changes in the resolved planetary waves which are associated with surface impacts, while the TOFD effects are mostly limited to the lower troposphere. The partitioning of Ttot between the two schemes appears to play an important role at all time scales.

Kerb and urban increment of highly time-resolved trace elements in PM10, PM2.5 and PM1.0 winter aerosol in London during ClearfLo 2012

Ambient concentrations of trace elements with 2 h time resolution were measured in PM10–2.5, PM2.5–1.0 and PM1.0–0.3 size ranges at kerbside, urban background and rural sites in London during winter 2012. Samples were collected using rotating drum impactors (RDIs) and subsequently analysed with synchrotron radiation-induced X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (SR-XRF). Quantification of kerb and urban increments (defined as kerb-to-urban and urban-to-rural concentration ratios, respectively), and assessment of diurnal and weekly variability provided insight into sources governing urban air quality and the effects of urban micro-environments on human exposure. Traffic-related elements yielded the highest kerb increments, with values in the range of 10.4 to 16.6 for SW winds (3.3–6.9 for NE) observed for elements influenced by brake wear (e.g. Cu, Sb, Ba) and 5.7 to 8.2 for SW (2.6–3.0 for NE) for other traffic-related processes (e.g. Cr, Fe, Zn). Kerb increments for these elements were highest in the PM10–2.5 mass fraction, roughly twice that of the PM1.0–0.3 fraction. These elements also showed the highest urban increments (~ 3.0), although no difference was observed between brake wear and other traffic-related elements. All elements influenced by traffic exhibited higher concentrations during morning and evening rush hours, and on weekdays compared to weekends, with the strongest trends observed at the kerbside site, and additionally enhanced by winds coming directly from the road, consistent with street canyon effects. Elements related to mineral dust (e.g. Al, Si, Ca, Sr) showed significant influences from traffic-induced resuspension, as evidenced by moderate kerb (3.4–5.4 for SW, 1.7–2.3 for NE) and urban (~ 2) increments and increased concentrations during peak traffic flow. Elements related to regional transport showed no significant enhancement at kerb or urban sites, with the exception of PM10–2.5 sea salt (factor of up to 2), which may be influenced by traffic-induced resuspension of sea and/or road salt. Heavy-duty vehicles appeared to have a larger effect than passenger vehicles on the concentrations of all elements influenced by resuspension (including sea salt) and wearing processes. Trace element concentrations in London were influenced by both local and regional sources, with coarse and intermediate fractions dominated by traffic-induced resuspension and wearing processes and fine particles influenced by regional transport.

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (“high-top”) and models that do not (“low-top”). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (Dec-Mar) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation/ENSO and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation/QBO) and how they relate to predictive skill on intra-seasonal to seasonal timescales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high-latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

On the ability of statistical wind-wave models to capture the variability and long-term trends of the North Atlantic winter wave climate

A dynamical wind-wave climate simulation covering the North Atlantic Ocean and spanning the whole 21st century under the A1B scenario has been compared with a set of statistical projections using atmospheric variables or large scale climate indices as predictors. As a first step, the performance of all statistical models has been evaluated for the present-day climate; namely they have been compared with a dynamical wind-wave hindcast in terms of winter Significant Wave Height (SWH) trends and variance as well as with altimetry data. For the projections, it has been found that statistical models that use wind speed as independent variable predictor are able to capture a larger fraction of the winter SWH inter-annual variability (68% on average) and of the long term changes projected by the dynamical simulation. Conversely, regression models using climate indices, sea level pressure and/or pressure gradient as predictors, account for a smaller SWH variance (from 2.8% to 33%) and do not reproduce the dynamically projected long term trends over the North Atlantic. Investigating the wind-sea and swell components separately, we have found that the combination of two regression models, one for wind-sea waves and another one for the swell component, can improve significantly the wave field projections obtained from single regression models over the North Atlantic.

Caves as a Winter Refuge by a Neotropical Harvestman (Arachnida, Opiliones)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Problematiska ljudkvalitetsskillnader vid liveproduktioner i samma lokal : En studie av upplevd ljudkvalitet vid två DJ-akters framträdanden under Dreamhack Winter 2014

Syftet med denna undersökning är bidra med förklaringar till varför upplevda ljudkvalitetsskillnader kan uppstå mellan olika akters framträdanden vid event och festivaler trots att de använder samma utrustning och är i samma lokal och att förklaringarna ska utgöra en kunskapskälla för dem som eftersträvar en god ljudkvalité vid liveframträdanden. De metoder som har används är fallstudie, webbenkät, intervjuer och egen observation. Webbenkäten användes på Dreamhack Winter 2014 där en grupp undersökningsdeltagare svarade på frågor om två olika DJ-akter på scenen i D-hallen, Elmia. Fem personer deltog som intervjupersoner: scenansvarig från Dreamhack, tre ljudtekniker ifrån olika ställen i Sverige och en person som jobbar med ljudteknisk konsultation och ljudmätning. Samtliga intervjuer genomfördes via mail. Intervjuerna eftersträvade att ge kunskap om dessa personers funderingar kring ljudkvalitetsproblemet och scenansvarig svarade på frågor om scenen på Dreamhack. En observation av upplevd ljudkvalitet och ljudteknikernas arbetssätt genomfördes av mig själv på Dreamhack Winter 2014. Resultatet från såväl enkätundersökningen som den egna observationen visar att inga stora upplevda skillnader fanns mellan de två akterna på Dreamhack Winter 2014. De upplevda skillnader som observerades var negativa anmärkningar, så som mängden bas och ljudstyrka. Intervjuerna visade på flera gemensamma åsikter bland ljudteknikerna angående förklaringar till ljudkvalitetsskillnader vid event som Dreamhack Winter 2014 där de ansåg att en kunnig och erfaren ljudtekniker, duktiga musiker, väl genomförd soundcheck och bra och rätt användande av utrustningen på scen krävs för att uppnå en upplevd god ljudkvalitet live. De förklaringar som finns enligt mina analyser och bland ljudteknikerna till negativa ljudkvalitetsskillnader inom liveljud i samma lokal är att ljudteknikern och musikerna är olika duktiga. Utrustning, soundcheck och akustik påverkar också kvalitén. Undersökningens sammantagna resultat tyder på att de upplevda ljudkvalitetetsskillnader som fanns på Dreamhack Winter 2014 berodde på bristande kompetens och engagemang hos tjänstgörande ljudtekniker och upplevda skillnader i bas- ljudnivå i de två DJ-akternas mixar.

The Movement of the Gastrop Littorina Littorea in the Intertidal Zone during the Onset of Winter

The movement of the snail Littorina littoreaon the North Atlantic coast is poorly understood. Most research has concentrated on the vertical distribution of the snail, and suggests that it prefers the low intertidal zone where its food source is most plentiful. In the winter, this distribution is reinforced by a documented seaward migration of snails from the high intertidal zone in response to falling temperatures. From October 14, 2006 to January 22, 2007, I examined the individual movements and recovery of snails in response to the onset of winter. I proposed that falling water and air temperatures drive the majority of snail movement within the intertidal zone, and that water temperature had the greater effect. I also examined the possibility that, in addition to a seaward migration, winter weather patterns in the Gulf of Maine and their effect on the ocean may encourage the wintertime vertical distribution of snails. Finally, I examined the possibility that populations of snails in the comparatively inhospitable high intertidal zone may endure the winter if given access to proper resources.

The LaGuardia Review, 1978 Winter

- Contributors to this issue: John Buckley, Adjunct Lecturer, English Department, LaGuardia Community College. John David Cato, Professor of Social Science, LaGuardia Community College, Editor of The La Guardia Review. Susan C. Fawcett, Lecturer, Englis

Perspective: LaGuardia Community College Newsletter (Winter 1982)

Vol. 10 No. 2; Perspective is a quarterly publication of LaGuardia Community College / CUNY which is designed and edited by the Office of Communications, Bill Freeland, director. Information on news and features stories should be addressed to the office In room M194. Faculty and staff news items should be sent to Dr. Roberta Matthews, Associate Dean of Faculty, room SB65.

Perspective: LaGuardia Community College Newsletter (Winter 1984)

Vol. 13 No. 1; Perspective is a quarterly publication of LaGuardia Community College / CUNY which is designed and edited by the Office of Communications, Bill Freeland, director. Information on news and features stories should be addressed to the office In room M413. Faculty and staff news items should be sent to Dr. Roberta Matthews, Associate Dean of Faculty, room M202.