Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Policy: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization?

Exchange rate movements affect exports in two ways -- its depreciation and its variability (risk). A depreciation raises exports, but the associated exchange rate risk could offset that positive effect. The present paper investigates the net effect for eight Asian countries using a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH-M model that simultaneously estimates time varying correlation and exchange rate risk. Depreciation encourages exports, as expected, for most countries, but its contribution to export growth is weak. Exchange rate risk contributes to export growth in Malaysia and the Philippines, leading to positive net effects. Exchange rate risk generates a negative effect for six of the countries, resulting in a negative net effect in Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and a zero net effect in Korea and Thailand. Since the negative effect of exchange rate risk may offset, or even dominate, positive contributions from depreciation, policy makers need to reduce exchange rate fluctuation along with and possibly before efforts to depreciate the currency.

Cross-Country Evidence on Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance and GARCH Models

This paper revisits the issue of conditional volatility in real GDP growth rates for Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Previous studies find high persistence in the volatility. This paper shows that this finding largely reflects a nonstationary variance. Output growth in the four countries became noticeably less volatile over the past few decades. In this paper, we employ the modified ICSS algorithm to detect structural change in the unconditional variance of output growth. One structural break exists in each of the four countries. We then use generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications modeling output growth and its volatility with and without the break in volatility. The evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply in Canada, Japan, and the U.K. and disappears in the U.S., excess kurtosis vanishes in Canada, Japan, and the U.S. and drops substantially in the U.K., once we incorporate the break in the variance equation of output for the four countries. That is, the integrated GARCH (IGARCH) effect proves spurious and the GARCH model demonstrates misspecification, if researchers neglect a nonstationary unconditional variance.

ARD1 stabilization of TSC2 suppresses tumorigenesis via the mTOR signaling pathway

Mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) plays an important role in regulating various cellular functions, and the tuberous sclerosis 1 (TSC1)/TSC2 complex serves as a major repressor of the mTOR pathway. Here we demonstrated that arrest-defective protein 1 (ARD1) physically interacts with, acetylates, and stabilizes TSC2, thereby reducing mTOR activity. The inhibition of mTOR by ARD1 suppresses cell proliferation and increases autophagy, which further impairs tumorigenicity. Correlation between the levels of ARD1 and TSC2 was found in multiple tumor types, suggesting the physiological importance of ARD1 in stabilizing TSC2. Moreover, evaluation of loss of heterozygosity (LOH) at Xq28 revealed allelic loss in 31% of tested breast cancer cell lines and tumor samples. Together, our findings suggest that ARD1 functions as a negative regulator of the mTOR pathway and that dysregulation of the ARD1/TSC2/mTOR axis may contribute to cancer development. To further explore the signaling pathway of ARD1, we provided evidence showing the phosphorylation of ARD1 by IKKβ, which mediated the destabilization of ARD1. Future work may be needed to study the biological effect of this post-translational modification. ^

Variance of familial dietary intake

Although many family-based genetic studies have collected dietary data, very few have used the dietary information in published findings. No single solution has been presented or discussed in the literature to deal with the problem of using factor analyses for the analyses of dietary data from several related individuals from a given household. The standard statistical approach of factor analysis cannot be applied to the VIVA LA FAMILIA Study diet data to ascertain dietary patterns since this population consists of three children from each family, thus the dietary patterns of the related children may be correlated and non-independent. Addressing this problem in this project will enable us to describe the dietary patterns in Hispanic families and to explore the relationships between dietary patterns and childhood obesity. ^ In the VIVA LA FAMILIA Study, an overweight child was first identified and then his/her siblings and parents were brought in for data collection which included 24 hour recalls and food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Dietary intake data were collected using FFQ and 24 hour recalls on 1030 Hispanic children from 319 families. ^ The design of the VIVA LA FAMILIA Study has important and unique statistical considerations since its participants are related to each other, the majority form distinct nuclear families. Thus, the standard approach of factor analysis cannot be applied to these diet data to ascertain dietary patterns. In this project we propose to investigate whether the determinants of the correlation matrix of each family unit will allow us to adjust the original correlation matrix of the dietary intake data prior to ascertaining dietary intake patterns. If these methods are appropriate, then in the future the dietary patterns among related individuals could be assessed by standard orthogonal principal component factor analysis.^

Performance enhancement of large industrial wastewater stabilization ponds

A 6-month-long, bench-scale simulation of an industrial wastewater stabilization pond (WSP) system was conducted to evaluate responses to several potential performance-enhancing treatments. The industrial WSP system consists of an anaerobic primary (1ry) WSP treating high-strength wastewater, followed by facultative secondary (2ry) and aerobic tertiary (3ry) WSPs in series treating lower-strength wastewater. The 1ry WSP was simulated with four glass aquaria which were fed with wastewater from the actual WSP system. The treatments examined were phosphorus supplementation (PHOS), phosphorus supplementation with pH control (PHOS+ALK), and phosphorus supplementation with pH control and effluent recycle (PHOS+ALK+RCY). The supplementary phosphorus treatment alone did not yield any significant change versus the CONTROL 1ry model pond. The average carbon to phosphorus ratio of the feed wastewater received from the WSP system was already 100:0.019 (i.e., 2,100 mg/l: 0.4 mg/l). The pH-control treatments (PHOS+ALK and PHOS+ALK+RCY) produced significant results, with 9 to 12 percent more total organic carbon (TOC) removal, 43 percent more volatile organic acid (VOA) generation, 78 percent more 2-ethoxyethanol and 14 percent more bis(2-chloroethyl)ether removal, and from 100- to 10,000-fold increases in bacterial enzyme activity and heterotrophic bacterial numbers. Recycling a 10-percent portion of the effluent yielded less variability for certain physicochemical parameters in the PHOS+ALK+RCY 1ry model pond, but overall there was no statistically-detectable improvement in performance versus no recycle. The 2ry and 3ry WSPs were also simulated in the laboratory to monitor the effect and fate of increased phosphorus loadings, as might occur if supplemental phosphorus were added to the 1ry WSP. Noticeable increases in algal growth were observed at feed phosphorus concentrations of 0.5 mg/l; however, there were no significant changes in the monitored physicochemical parameters. The effluent phosphorus concentrations from both the 2ry and 3ry model ponds did increase notably when feed phosphorus concentrations were increased from 0.5 to 1.0 mg/l. ^

PRODUCTION, DEGRADATION AND ACCUMULATION OF ORGANICS BY WASTE STABILIZATION POND MICROORGANISMS

The objectives of this research were: to determine the contribution of algae to commonly run water quality variables, to evaluate waste pond micoorganisms' capacity to degrade and accumulate ten EPA priority pollutants, and to determine the environmental fate of those compounds in a laboratory

THE CHLOREX TREATABILITY STUDY: ENVIRONMENTAL FATE IN FACULTATIVE ANAEROBIC AND AEROBIC WASTE STABILIZATION PONDS (BIODEGRADATION, VOLATILIZATION, SORPTION, PRIORITY POLLUTANTS)

The efficacy of waste stabilization lagoons for the treatment of five priority pollutants and two widely used commercial compounds was evaluated in laboratory model ponds. Three ponds were designed to simulate a primary anaerobic lagoon, a secondary facultative lagoon, and a tertiary aerobic lagoon. Biodegradation, volatilization, and sorption losses were quantified for bis(2-chloroethyl) ether, benzene, toluene, naphthalene, phenanthrene, ethylene glycol, and ethylene glycol monoethyl ether. A statistical model using a log normal transformation indicated biodegradation of bis(2-chloroethyl) ether followed first-order kinetics. Additionally, multiple regression analysis indicated biochemical oxygen demand was the water quality variable most highly correlated with bis(2-chloroethyl) ether effluent concentration. ^

An exploratory analysis of variance and volatility in epileptic electroencephalograms

The electroencephalogram (EEG) is a physiological time series that measures electrical activity at different locations in the brain, and plays an important role in epilepsy research. Exploring the variance and/or volatility may yield insights for seizure prediction, seizure detection and seizure propagation/dynamics.^ Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transforms (MODWTs) and ARMA-GARCH models were used to determine variance and volatility characteristics of 66 channels for different states of an epileptic EEG – sleep, awake, sleep-to-awake and seizure. The wavelet variances, changes in wavelet variances and volatility half-lives for the four states were compared for possible differences between seizure and non-seizure channels.^ The half-lives of two of the three seizure channels were found to be shorter than all of the non-seizure channels, based on 95% CIs for the pre-seizure and awake signals. No discernible patterns were found the wavelet variances of the change points for the different signals. ^

Regulation of tyrosine hydroxylase gene expression by mRNA stabilization

Tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) expression increases in adrenal chromaffin cells treated with the nicotinic agonist, dimethylphenylpiperazinium (DMPP; 1 μM). We are using this response as a model of the changes in TH level that occur during increased cholinergic neural activity. Here we report a 4-fold increase in TH mRNA half-life in DMPP-treated chromaffin cells that is apparent when using a pulse-chase analysis to measure TH mRNA half-life. No increase is apparent using actinomycin D to measure half-life, indicating a requirement for ongoing transcription. Characterization of protein binding to the TH 3′UTR using RNA electro-mobility shift assays show the presence of two complexes both of which are increased by DMPP-treatment. The faster migrating complex (FMC) increases 2.5-fold and the slower migrating complex (SMC) increases 1.5-fold. Separation of UV crosslinked RNA-protein complexes on SDS polyacrylamide gels shows FMC to contain a single protein whereas SMC contains two proteins. Northwesterns yielded similar results. Transfection studies reveal an increase in expression of the full-length TH transcript due to DMPP-treatment similar to that of endogenous TH mRNA. This finding suggests the increased expression is due primarily to mRNA stabilization. Transfection of luciferase reporter constructs containing regions of the TH 3′UTR reveal only the full-length 3′UTR influenced the expression level of reporter transcripts. ^