PHENOLOGY AND FRUIT TRAITS OF ARCHONTOPHOENIX CUNNINGHAMIANA, AN INVASIVE PALM TREE IN THE ATLANTIC FOREST OF BRAZIL

The Australian palm Archontophoenix cunninghamiana was introduced into Brazil as an ornamental species, and became a dangerous invader of remnant Atlantic forest patches, demanding urgent management actions that require careful planning. Its fruits are greatly appreciated by generalist birds and its sudden eradication could be as harmful as its permanence in the native community. Our hypothesis was that A. cunninghamiana phenology and fruit traits would have facilitated the invasion process. Hence the aim of the study was to characterize the reproductive phenology of the palm by registering flowering and fruiting events, estimating fruit production, and evaluating fruit nutritional levels. Phenological observations were carried out over 12 months and analyzed statistically. Fruit traits and production were estimated. Pulp nutritional levels were determined by analyzing proteins, lipids, and carbohydrates. Results showed constant flowering and fruiting throughout the year with a weak reproductive seasonality. On average, 3651 fruits were produced per bunch mainly in the summer. Fruit analysis revealed low nutrient contents, especially of proteins and lipids compared with other Brazilian native palm species. We concluded that the abundant fruit production all year round, and fruit attractivity mainly due to size and color, :may act positively on the reproductive performance and effective dispersion of A. cunninghamiana. As a management procedure which would add quality to frugivore food resources we suggest the replacement of A. cunninghamiana by the native palm Euterpe edulis, especially in gardens and parks near to Atlantic forest fragments.

CONTEXT TREE SELECTION AND LINGUISTIC RHYTHM RETRIEVAL FROM WRITTEN TEXTS

The starting point of this article is the question "How to retrieve fingerprints of rhythm in written texts?" We address this problem in the case of Brazilian and European Portuguese. These two dialects of Modern Portuguese share the same lexicon and most of the sentences they produce are superficially identical. Yet they are conjectured, on linguistic grounds, to implement different rhythms. We show that this linguistic question can be formulated as a problem of model selection in the class of variable length Markov chains. To carry on this approach, we compare texts from European and Brazilian Portuguese. These texts are previously encoded according to some basic rhythmic features of the sentences which can be automatically retrieved. This is an entirely new approach from the linguistic point of view. Our statistical contribution is the introduction of the smallest maximizer criterion which is a constant free procedure for model selection. As a by-product, this provides a solution for the problem of optimal choice of the penalty constant when using the BIC to select a variable length Markov chain. Besides proving the consistency of the smallest maximizer criterion when the sample size diverges, we also make a simulation study comparing our approach with both the standard BIC selection and the Peres-Shields order estimation. Applied to the linguistic sample constituted for our case study, the smallest maximizer criterion assigns different context-tree models to the two dialects of Portuguese. The features of the selected models are compatible with current conjectures discussed in the linguistic literature.

Mating system parameters at hierarchical levels of fruits, individuals and populations in the Brazilian insect-pollinated tropical tree, Tabebuia roseo-alba (Bignoniaceae)

For many tree species, mating system analyses have indicated potential variations in the selfing rate and paternity correlation among fruits within individuals, among individuals within populations, among populations, and from one flowering event to another. In this study, we used eight microsatellite markers to investigate mating systems at two hierarchical levels (fruits within individuals and individuals within populations) for the insect pollinated Neotropical tree Tabebuia roseo-alba. We found that T. roseo-alba has a mixed mating system with predominantly outcrossed mating. The outcrossing rates at the population level were similar across two T. roseo-alba populations; however, the rates varied considerably among individuals within populations. The correlated paternity results at different hierarchical levels showed that there is a high probability of shared paternal parentage when comparing seeds within fruits and among fruits within plants and full-sibs occur in much higher proportion within fruits than among fruits. Significant levels of fixation index were found in both populations and biparental inbreeding is believed to be the main cause of the observed inbreeding. The number of pollen donors contributing to mating was low. Furthermore, open-pollinated seeds varied according to relatedness, including half-sibs, full-sibs, self-sibs and self- half-sibs. In both populations, the effective population size within a family (seed-tree and its offspring) was lower than expected for panmictic populations. Thus, seeds for ex situ conservation genetics, progeny tests and reforestation must be collected from a large number of seed-trees to guarantee an adequate effective population in the sample.

Using scenario tree modelling for targeted herd sampling to substantiate freedom from disease

BACKGROUND: In order to optimise the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance to substantiate freedom from disease, a new approach using targeted sampling of farms was developed and applied on the example of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) and enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) in Switzerland. Relevant risk factors (RF) for the introduction of IBR and EBL into Swiss cattle farms were identified and their relative risks defined based on literature review and expert opinions. A quantitative model based on the scenario tree method was subsequently used to calculate the required sample size of a targeted sampling approach (TS) for a given sensitivity. We compared the sample size with that of a stratified random sample (sRS) with regard to efficiency. RESULTS: The required sample sizes to substantiate disease freedom were 1,241 farms for IBR and 1,750 farms for EBL to detect 0.2% herd prevalence with 99% sensitivity. Using conventional sRS, the required sample sizes were 2,259 farms for IBR and 2,243 for EBL. Considering the additional administrative expenses required for the planning of TS, the risk-based approach was still more cost-effective than a sRS (40% reduction on the full survey costs for IBR and 8% for EBL) due to the considerable reduction in sample size. CONCLUSIONS: As the model depends on RF selected through literature review and was parameterised with values estimated by experts, it is subject to some degree of uncertainty. Nevertheless, this approach provides the veterinary authorities with a promising tool for future cost-effective sampling designs.

A Robust Parser of Czech

Mr. Kubon's project was inspired by the growing need for an automatic, syntactic analyser (parser) of Czech, which could be used in the syntactic processing of large amounts of texts. Mr. Kubon notes that such a tool would be very useful, especially in the field of corpus linguistics, where creating a large-scale "tree bank" (a collection of syntactic representations of natural language sentences) is a very important step towards the investigation of the properties of a given language. The work involved in syntactically parsing a whole corpus in order to get a representative set of syntactic structures would be almost inconceivable without the help of some kind of robust (semi)automatic parser. The need for the automatic natural language parser to be robust increases with the size of the linguistic data in the corpus or in any other kind of text which is going to be parsed. Practical experience shows that apart from syntactically correct sentences, there are many sentences which contain a "real" grammatical error. These sentences may be corrected in small-scale texts, but not generally in the whole corpus. In order to be able to complete the overall project, it was necessary to address a number of smaller problems. These were; 1. the adaptation of a suitable formalism able to describe the formal grammar of the system; 2. the definition of the structure of the system's dictionary containing all relevant lexico-syntactic information, and the development of a formal grammar able to robustly parse Czech sentences from the test suite; 3. filling the syntactic dictionary with sample data allowing the system to be tested and debugged during its development (about 1000 words); 4. the development of a set of sample sentences containing a reasonable amount of grammatical and ungrammatical phenomena covering some of the most typical syntactic constructions being used in Czech. Number 3, building a formal grammar, was the main task of the project. The grammar is of course far from complete (Mr. Kubon notes that it is debatable whether any formal grammar describing a natural language may ever be complete), but it covers the most frequent syntactic phenomena, allowing for the representation of a syntactic structure of simple clauses and also the structure of certain types of complex sentences. The stress was not so much on building a wide coverage grammar, but on the description and demonstration of a method. This method uses a similar approach as that of grammar-based grammar checking. The problem of reconstructing the "correct" form of the syntactic representation of a sentence is closely related to the problem of localisation and identification of syntactic errors. Without a precise knowledge of the nature and location of syntactic errors it is not possible to build a reliable estimation of a "correct" syntactic tree. The incremental way of building the grammar used in this project is also an important methodological issue. Experience from previous projects showed that building a grammar by creating a huge block of metarules is more complicated than the incremental method, which begins with the metarules covering most common syntactic phenomena first, and adds less important ones later, especially from the point of view of testing and debugging the grammar. The sample of the syntactic dictionary containing lexico-syntactical information (task 4) now has slightly more than 1000 lexical items representing all classes of words. During the creation of the dictionary it turned out that the task of assigning complete and correct lexico-syntactic information to verbs is a very complicated and time-consuming process which would itself be worth a separate project. The final task undertaken in this project was the development of a method allowing effective testing and debugging of the grammar during the process of its development. The problem of the consistency of new and modified rules of the formal grammar with the rules already existing is one of the crucial problems of every project aiming at the development of a large-scale formal grammar of a natural language. This method allows for the detection of any discrepancy or inconsistency of the grammar with respect to a test-bed of sentences containing all syntactic phenomena covered by the grammar. This is not only the first robust parser of Czech, but also one of the first robust parsers of a Slavic language. Since Slavic languages display a wide range of common features, it is reasonable to claim that this system may serve as a pattern for similar systems in other languages. To transfer the system into any other language it is only necessary to revise the grammar and to change the data contained in the dictionary (but not necessarily the structure of primary lexico-syntactic information). The formalism and methods used in this project can be used in other Slavic languages without substantial changes.

PARTITIONING THE BLOCKS OF A STEINER TRIPLE SYSTEM INTO PARTIAL PARALLEL CLASSES

Does there exist a Steiner Triple System on v points, whose blocks can be partitioned into partial parallel classes of size m, where m ≤ [v⁄3], m | b and b is the number of blocks of the STS(v)? We give the answer for 9 ≤ v ≤ 43. We also show that whenever 2|b, v ≡ 3 (mod 6) we can find an STS(v) whose blocks can be partitioned into partial parallel classes of size 2, and whenever 4|b , v ≡ 3 (mod 6), there exists an STS(v) whose blocks can be partitioned into partial parallel classes of size 4.

Climatic drivers of hourly to yearly tree radius variations along a 6°C natural warming gradient

Climate affects the timing, rate and dynamics of tree growth, over time scales ranging from seconds to centuries. Monitoring how a tree's stem radius varies over these time scales can provide insight into intra-annual stem dynamics and improve our understanding of climate impacts on tree physiology and growth processes. Here, we quantify the response of radial conifer stem size to environmental fluctuations via a novel assessment of tree circadian cycles. We analyze four years of sub-hourly data collected from 56 larch and spruce trees growing along a natural temperature gradient of ∼6 °C in the central Swiss Alps. During the growing season, tree stem diameters were greatest at mid-morning and smallest in the late evening, reflecting the daily cycle of water uptake and loss. Along the gradient, amplitudes calculated from the stem radius cycle were ∼50% smaller at the upper site (∼2200 m a.s.l.) relative to the lower site (∼800 m a.s.l.). We show changes in precipitation, temperature and cloud cover have a substantial effect on typical growing season diurnal cycles; amplitudes were nine times smaller on rainy days (>10 mm), and daily amplitudes are approximately 40% larger when the mean daily temperature is 15–20 °C than when it is 5–10 °C. We find that over the growing season in the sub-alpine forests, spruce show greater daily stem water movement than larch. However, under projected future warming, larch could experience up to 50% greater stem water use, which may severely affect future growth on already dry sites. Our data further indicate that because of the confounding influences of radial growth and short-term water dynamics on stem size, conventional methodology probably overstates the effect of water-linked meteorological variables (i.e. precipitation and relative humidity) on intra-annual tree growth. We suggest future studies use intra-seasonal measurements of cell development and consider whether climatic factors produce reversible changes in stem diameter. These study design elements may help researchers more accurately quantify and attribute changes in forest productivity in response to future warming.

Density-dependent dynamics of a dominant rain forest tree change with juvenile stage and time of masting

Although negative density dependence (NDD) can facilitate tree species coexistence in forests, the underlying mechanisms can differ, and rarely are the dynamics of seedlings and saplings studied together. Herein we present and discuss a novel mechanism based on our investigation of NDD predictions for the large, grove-forming ectomycorrhizal mast fruiting tree, Microberlinia bisulcata (Caesalpiniaceae), in an 82.5-ha plot at Korup, Cameroon. We tested whether juvenile density, size, growth and survival decreases with increasing conspecific adult basal area for 3245 ‘new’ seedlings and 540 ‘old’ seedlings (< 75-cm tall) during an approximately 4-year study period (2008–2012) and for 234 ‘saplings’ (≥ 75-cm tall) during an approximately 6-year study period (2008–2014). We found that the respective densities of new seedlings, old seedlings and saplings were positively, not and negatively related to increasing BA. Maximum leaf numbers and heights of old seedlings were negatively correlated with increasing basal areas, as were sapling heights and stem diameters. Whereas survivorship of new seedlings decreased by more than one-half with increasing basal area over its range in 2010–2012, that of old seedlings decreased by almost two-thirds, but only in 2008–2010, and was generally unrelated to conspecific seedling density. In 2010–2012 relative growth rates in new seedlings’ heights decreased with increasing basal area, as well as with increasing seedling density, together with increasing leaf numbers, whereas old seedlings’ growth was unrelated to either conspecific density or basal area. Saplings of below-average height had reduced survivorship with increasing basal area (probability decreasing from approx. 0.4 to 0.05 over the basal area range tested), but only sapling growth in terms of leaf numbers decreased with increasing basal area. These static and dynamic results indicate that NDD is operating within this system, possibly stabilizing the M. bisulcata population. However, these NDD patterns are unlikely to be caused by symmetric competition or by consumers. Instead, an alternative mechanism for conspecific adult–juvenile negative feedback is proposed, one which involves the interaction between tree phenology and ectomycorrhizal linkages.

Herbivores limit the population size of big-leaf mahogany trees in an Amazonian forest

The Janzen–Connell hypothesis proposes that specialized herbivores maintain high numbers of tree species in tropical forests by restricting adult recruitment so that host populations remain at low densities. We tested this prediction for the large timber tree species, Swietenia macrophylla, whose seeds and seedlings are preyed upon by small mammals and a host-specific moth caterpillar Steniscadia poliophaea, respectively. At a primary forest site, experimental seed additions to gaps – canopy-disturbed areas that enhance seedling growth into saplings – over three years revealed lower survival and seedling recruitment closer to conspecific trees and in higher basal area neighborhoods, as well as reduced subsequent seedling survival and height growth. When we included these Janzen–Connell effects in a spatially explicit individual-based population model, the caterpillar's impact was critical to limiting Swietenia's adult tree density, with a > 10-fold reduction estimated at 300 years. Our research demonstrates the crucial but oft-ignored linkage between Janzen–Connell effects on offspring and population-level consequences for a long-lived, potentially dominant tree species.

A SIMULATION STUDY OF THE SIZE AND POWER OF SOME TWO-SAMPLE TESTS FOR UNEQUALLY CENSORED SURVIVAL DATA (RANK TESTS, LOGRANK, PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS, WILCOXON TESTS, EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION)

Sizes and power of selected two-sample tests of the equality of survival distributions are compared by simulation for small samples from unequally, randomly-censored exponential distributions. The tests investigated include parametric tests (F, Score, Likelihood, Asymptotic), logrank tests (Mantel, Peto-Peto), and Wilcoxon-Type tests (Gehan, Prentice). Equal sized samples, n = 18, 16, 32 with 1000 (size) and 500 (power) simulation trials, are compared for 16 combinations of the censoring proportions 0%, 20%, 40%, and 60%. For n = 8 and 16, the Asymptotic, Peto-Peto, and Wilcoxon tests perform at nominal 5% size expectations, but the F, Score and Mantel tests exceeded 5% size confidence limits for 1/3 of the censoring combinations. For n = 32, all tests showed proper size, with the Peto-Peto test most conservative in the presence of unequal censoring. Powers of all tests are compared for exponential hazard ratios of 1.4 and 2.0. There is little difference in power characteristics of the tests within the classes of tests considered. The Mantel test showed 90% to 95% power efficiency relative to parametric tests. Wilcoxon-type tests have the lowest relative power but are robust to differential censoring patterns. A modified Peto-Peto test shows power comparable to the Mantel test. For n = 32, a specific Weibull-exponential comparison of crossing survival curves suggests that the relative powers of logrank and Wilcoxon-type tests are dependent on the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution. Wilcoxon-type tests appear more powerful than logrank tests in the case of late-crossing and less powerful for early-crossing survival curves. Guidelines for the appropriate selection of two-sample tests are given. ^

Influence of Crop Load on Tree Growth, Yield, and Fruit Quality of Scab Resistant Apples at Harvest

Apple scab, caused by Venturia inaequalis, is a major disease affecting apple production. Breeding programs have developed over 30 releases of scab-resistant cultivars since 1970 with recent ones having much improved quality. Redfree and GoldRush are from a cooperative breeding program involving Purdue, Rutgers, and Illinois universities while Liberty was introduced from the Cornell University breeding program. For these cultivars to gain better acceptance, more information is needed on their cropping capacities and the effect of crop load on fruit quality attributes. Our study was conducted to determine the relationship between increasing crop load on tree growth, fruit size, and fruit quality variables of the three cultivars under Iowa conditions.

(Supplement) Regeneration of Pinus sylvestris, disturbance residuals and soil properties 5 years after a mixed-severity wildfire in the inner Italian Alps

We analyzed the abundance of Scots pine regeneration in a 257 ha wildfire in an inner-alpine forest. We sampled regeneration, percent soil cover by classes, physical and chemical properties of topsoils (A horizon, 0-5 cm) under four fire severity levels (unburned, moderate, moderate/high, high severity). 5 plots per severity level, circular (R= 3m). Analysis methods for soil properties as described in the paper.

Pollen analysis, particle size analysis, end-member modelling and x-ray fluorescence measurements from sediment cores off Cape Ghir, Morocco

Understanding past human-climate-environment interactions is essential for assessing the vulnerability of landscapes and ecosystems to future climate change. This is particularly important in southern Morocco where the current vegetation is impacted by pastoralism, and the region is highly sensitive to climate variability. Here, we present a 2000-year record of vegetation, sedimentation rate, XRF chemical element intensities, and particle size from two decadal-resolved, marine sediment cores, raised from offshore Cape Ghir, southern Morocco. The results show that between 650 and 850 AD the sedimentation rate increased dramatically from 100 cm/1000 years to 300 cm/1000 years, and the Fe/Ca and pollen flux doubled, together indicating higher inputs of terrestrial sediment. Particle size measurements and end-member modelling suggest increased fluvial transport of the sediment. Beginning at 650 AD pollen levels from Cichorioideae species show a sharp rise from 10% to 20%. Pollen from Atemisia and Plantago, also increase from this time. Deciduous oak pollen percentages show a decline, whereas those of evergreen oak barely change. The abrupt increase in terrestrial/fluvial input from 650 to 850 AD occurs, within the age uncertainty, of the arrival of Islam (Islamisation) in Morocco at around 700 AD. Historical evidence suggests Islamisation led to population increase and development of southern Morocco, including expanded pastoralism, deforestation and agriculture. Livestock pressure may have changed the vegetation structure, accounting for the increase in pollen from Cichorioideae, Plantago, and Artemisia, which include many weedy species. Goats in particular may have played a dominant role as agents of erosion, and intense browsing may have led to the decline in deciduous oak; evergreen oak is more likely to survive as it re-sprouts more vigorously after browsing. From 850 AD to present sedimentation rates, Fe/Ca ratios and fluvial discharge remain stable, whereas pollen results suggest continued degradation. Pollen results from the past 150 years suggest expanded cultivation of olives and the native argan tree, and the introduction of Australian eucalyptus trees. The rapidly increasing population in southern Morocco is causing continued pressure to expand pastoralism and agriculture. The history of land degradation presented here suggests that the vegetation in southern Morocco may have been degraded for a longer period than previously thought and may be particularly sensitive to further land use changes. These results should be included in land management strategies for southern Morocco.

Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.