Bayesian Inference in the Time Varying Cointegration Model

There are both theoretical and empirical reasons for believing that the parameters of macroeconomic models may vary over time. However, work with time-varying parameter models has largely involved Vector autoregressions (VARs), ignoring cointegration. This is despite the fact that cointegration plays an important role in informing macroeconomists on a range of issues. In this paper we develop time varying parameter models which permit cointegration. Time-varying parameter VARs (TVP-VARs) typically use state space representations to model the evolution of parameters. In this paper, we show that it is not sensible to use straightforward extensions of TVP-VARs when allowing for cointegration. Instead we develop a specification which allows for the cointegrating space to evolve over time in a manner comparable to the random walk variation used with TVP-VARs. The properties of our approach are investigated before developing a method of posterior simulation. We use our methods in an empirical investigation involving a permanent/transitory variance decomposition for inflation.

Quantifying rates of landscape evolution and tectonic processes by thermochronology and numerical modeling of crustal heat transport using PECUBE

PECUBE is a three-dimensional thermal-kinematic code capable of solving the heat production-diffusion-advection equation under a temporally varying surface boundary condition. It was initially developed to assess the effects of time-varying surface topography (relief) on low-temperature thermochronological datasets. Thermochronometric ages are predicted by tracking the time-temperature histories of rock-particles ending up at the surface and by combining these with various age-prediction models. In the decade since its inception, the PECUBE code has been under continuous development as its use became wider and addressed different tectonic-geomorphic problems. This paper describes several major recent improvements in the code, including its integration with an inverse-modeling package based on the Neighborhood Algorithm, the incorporation of fault-controlled kinematics, several different ways to address topographic and drainage change through time, the ability to predict subsurface (tunnel or borehole) data, prediction of detrital thermochronology data and a method to compare these with observations, and the coupling with landscape-evolution (or surface-process) models. Each new development is described together with one or several applications, so that the reader and potential user can clearly assess and make use of the capabilities of PECUBE. We end with describing some developments that are currently underway or should take place in the foreseeable future. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A cohort-based analysis of the evolution of lifetime prevalence of recourse to prostitution by men in the general population of Switzerland, 1987-2000

Background: Despite their relevance to the prevention of sexually transmitted infections, there are few data on the frequency of recourse to prostitution in the male population in Switzerland. Using data gathered for the evaluation of the Swiss AIDS prevention strategy, we analysed net aggregate change and cohort-based change in lifetime prevalence of recourse to prostitution. Methods: Seven repeated cross-sectional telephone surveys of the general population aged 17-45 years (17-30 years only for the 1987 and 1988 surveys) were undertaken from 1987 to 2000 providing information on sexual behaviour including men's recourse to prostitution (total n¼9318). Age categories were: 17-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40 and 41-45 years. Prevalence at 17-30 years was available in all surveys and prevalence at 41-45 was available for 1989-2000, though not for the same cohorts. Intra-cohort increase in prevalence over 10 years was analysed using truncated information for cohorts aged 21-25 and 26-30 years in 1987 and 1990. Population estimates were computed with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: No net change occurred in the 17-45 years male population prevalence between 1989 (17.6%, CI ¼ 15.4; 20.0) and 2000 (17.7%, CI ¼ 15.6; 20.0). The median starting prevalence of recourse to prostitution at age 17-20 was 4.8% (in 1989, CI ¼ 2.0; 9.7) and the range was from 1.8 (in 1994) to 10.4% (in 1990). The median ending prevalence at age 41-45 was 21.9% (in 1994, CI 16.7; 27.9) and the range was from 17.9 (in 2000) to 26.1% (in 1992). No clear trend was observed in either starting or ending prevalence. Intra-cohort evolution of the 1997 and 1990 cohorts was very similar. Conclusions: Based on available data, there was no net (aggregate) change in the prevalence of recourse to prostitution by males in Switzerland between 1989 and 2000. Within the time frame available, intra-cohort evolution was also very similar.

Evolution of anaesthesia care and related events between 1996 and 2010 in a developed country

Background: Anaesthesia Databank Switzerland (ADS) is a voluntary data registry introduced in 1996. The goal was to promote quality in anaesthesiology. Methods: Analysis of routinely recorded adverse events. Internal and external benchmark comparisons between anaesthesia departments. Results: In 2010, the database included 2'158'735 anaesthetic procedures. Forty-four anaesthesia departments were participating to the data collection in 2010. Over time, the number of patients in older age groups increased, the largest group being patients aged 50 to 64 years. Over time, the percentage of patients with ASA physical status score 1 decreased while the number of ASA 2 or 3 patients increased. The most frequent co-morbidities were hypertension (21%), smoking (16%), allergy (15%), and obesity (12%). Between 1996 and 2010, 146'459 adverse events were recorded, of which 34% were cardiovascular, 7% respiratory, 39% specific to anaesthesia and 17% nonspecific. The overall proportion of adverse events decreased over time, whatever their severity. Conclusion: The ADS routine data collection contributes to monitoring the trends of anaesthesia care in Switzerland.

Prognostic accuracy of cerebral blood flow measurement by perfusion computed tomography, at the time of emergency room admission, in acute stroke patients.

The purpose of this study was to determine the prognostic accuracy of perfusion computed tomography (CT), performed at the time of emergency room admission, in acute stroke patients. Accuracy was determined by comparison of perfusion CT with delayed magnetic resonance (MR) and by monitoring the evolution of each patient's clinical condition. Twenty-two acute stroke patients underwent perfusion CT covering four contiguous 10mm slices on admission, as well as delayed MR, performed after a median interval of 3 days after emergency room admission. Eight were treated with thrombolytic agents. Infarct size on the admission perfusion CT was compared with that on the delayed diffusion-weighted (DWI)-MR, chosen as the gold standard. Delayed magnetic resonance angiography and perfusion-weighted MR were used to detect recanalization. A potential recuperation ratio, defined as PRR = penumbra size/(penumbra size + infarct size) on the admission perfusion CT, was compared with the evolution in each patient's clinical condition, defined by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). In the 8 cases with arterial recanalization, the size of the cerebral infarct on the delayed DWI-MR was larger than or equal to that of the infarct on the admission perfusion CT, but smaller than or equal to that of the ischemic lesion on the admission perfusion CT; and the observed improvement in the NIHSS correlated with the PRR (correlation coefficient = 0.833). In the 14 cases with persistent arterial occlusion, infarct size on the delayed DWI-MR correlated with ischemic lesion size on the admission perfusion CT (r = 0.958). In all 22 patients, the admission NIHSS correlated with the size of the ischemic area on the admission perfusion CT (r = 0.627). Based on these findings, we conclude that perfusion CT allows the accurate prediction of the final infarct size and the evaluation of clinical prognosis for acute stroke patients at the time of emergency evaluation. It may also provide information about the extent of the penumbra. Perfusion CT could therefore be a valuable tool in the early management of acute stroke patients.

Triassic stratigraphic evolution of the Arabian-Greater India embayment of the southern Tethys margin

An exceptional, tectonically remarkably unaffected, nearly 200 m-thick continuous section of hemipelagic and turbiditic sediments, covering most of the Triassic is described from the Batain Complex of north-eastern Oman. According to conodont and radiolarian data the sequence spans the late Scythian to the early Norian, a time period of nearly 30 M. Coupled with a high resolution stratigraphy, the lithostratigraphy, sedimentology, as well as sequence and isotope stratigraphy of the section are documented. For the Triassic of the Batain Plain we propose the new name Sal Formation, which replaces the formerly used Matbat Formation, and subdivide it into three new members. The Sal Formation was deposited on the proximal continental margin of northeastern Arabia and records various depositional environments. The lower member is interpreted as the distal part of a homoclinal ramp which evolves to a distally steepened ramp during time of deposition of the middle member. The upper member displays a toe of slope position which is indicated by an increase of proximal turbidites. These sediments form part of a segment of the Neo-Tethyan embayment between Arabia and India. The stratigraphic analysis indicates highly varying sedimentation rates from a minimum of 2 m/M gamma around the Anisian/Ladinian boundary up to 15 m/M gamma during the Lower and Upper Triassic. Sequence-stratigraphically, the Sal section is subdivided into six third order cycles which are biochronologically well integrated into the global Triassic cycle chart. The mixed siliciclastic-calcareous upper member of the Sal Formation typically shows highstand related carbonate shedding. It is, therefore, an important test case for sequence-stratigraphic controlled carbonate export to mixed basin fills. The well developed sequence stratigraphic cycles are mirrored in the isotope patterns. Additionally, the carbon and oxygen isotope data from the Sal Formation record the same chemostratigraphic marker at the Spathian/Anisian boundary known from other Tethyan sections.

The Evolution of Trypanosomes Infecting Humans and Primates

Based on phylogenetic analysis of 18S rRNA sequences and clade taxon composition, this paper adopts a biogeographical approach to understanding the evolutionary relationships of the human and primate infective trypanosomes, Trypanosoma cruzi, T. brucei, T. rangeli and T. cyclops. Results indicate that these parasites have divergent origins and fundamentally different patterns of evolution. T. cruzi is placed in a clade with T. rangeli and trypanosomes specific to bats and a kangaroo. The predominantly South American and Australian origins of parasites within this clade suggest an ancient southern super-continent origin for ancestral T. cruzi, possibly in marsupials. T. brucei clusters exclusively with mammalian, salivarian trypanosomes of African origin, suggesting an evolutionary history confined to Africa, while T. cyclops, from an Asian primate appears to have evolved separately and is placed in a clade with T. (Megatrypanum) species. Relating clade taxon composition to palaeogeographic evidence, the divergence of T. brucei and T. cruzi can be dated to the mid-Cretaceous, around 100 million years before present, following the separation of Africa, South America and Euramerica. Such an estimate of divergence time is considerably more recent than those of most previous studies based on molecular clock methods. Perhaps significantly, Salivarian trypanosomes appear, from these data, to be evolving several times faster than Schizotrypanum species, a factor which may have contributed to previous anomalous estimates of divergence times.

RNA-based gene duplication sheds new light on mammalian sex chromosome evolution

ABSTRACT : Gene duplication is a fundamental source of raw material for the origin of genetic novelty. It has been assumed for a long time that DNA-based gene duplication was the only source of new genes. Recently however, RNA-based gene duplication (retroposition) was shown in multiple organisms to contribute significantly to their genetic diversity. This mechanism produces intronless gene copies (retrocopies) that are inserted in random genomic position, independent of the position of the parental source genes. In human, mouse and fruit fly, it was demonstrated that the X-linked genes spawned an excess of functional retroposed gene copies (retrogenes). In human and mouse, the X chromosome also recruited an excess of retrogenes. Here we further characterized these interesting biases related to the X chromosome in mammals. Firstly, we have confirmed presence of the aforementioned biases in dog and opossum genome. Then based on the expression profile of retrogenes during various spermatogenetic stages, we have provided solid evidence that meiotic sex chromosome inactivation (MSCI) is responsible for an excess of retrogenes stemming from the X chromosome. Moreover, we showed that the X-linked genes started to export an excess of retrogenes just after the split of eutherian and marsupial mammalian lineages. This suggests that MSCI has originated around this time as well. More fundamentally, as MSCI reflects the spread of recombination barrier between the X and Y chromosomes during their evolution, our observation allowed us to re-estimate the age of mammalian sex chromosomes. Previous estimates suggested that they emerged in the common ancestor of all mammals (before the split of monotreme lineage); whereas, here we showed that they originated around the split of marsupial and eutherian lineages, after the divergence of monotremes. Thus, the therian (marsupial and eutherian) sex chromosomes are younger than previously thought. Thereafter, we have characterized the bias related to the recruitment of genes to the X chromosome. Sexually antagonistic forces are most likely driving this pattern. Using our limited retrogenes expression data, it is difficult to determine the exact nature of these forces but some conclusions have been made. Lastly, we looked at the history of this biased recruitment: it commenced around the split of marsupial and eutherian lineages (akin to the biased export of genes out of the X). In fact, the sexually antagonistic forces are predicted to appear just around that time as well. Thereby, the history of the recruitment of genes to the X, provides an indirect evidence that these forces are responsible for this bias.

A human MYBPC3 mutation appearing about 10 centuries ago results in a hypertrophic cardiomyopathy with delayed onset, moderate evolution but with a risk of sudden death.

BACKGROUND: Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a genetically heterogeneous disease. One specific mutation in the MYBPC3 gene is highly prevalent in center east of France giving an opportunity to define the clinical profile of this specific mutation. METHODS: HCM probands were screened for mutation in the MYH7, MYBPC3, TNNT2 and TNNI3 genes. Carriers of the MYBPC3 IVS20-2A>G mutation were genotyped with 8 microsatellites flanking this gene. The age of this MYBPC3 mutation was inferred with the software ESTIAGE. The age at first symptom, diagnosis, first complication, first severe complication and the rate of sudden death were compared between carriers of the IVS20-2 mutation (group A) and carriers of all other mutations (group B) using time to event curves and log rank test. RESULTS: Out of 107 HCM probands, 45 had a single heterozygous mutation in one of the 4 tested sarcomeric genes including 9 patients with the MYBPC3 IVS20-2A>G mutation. The IVS20-2 mutation in these 9 patients and their 25 mutation carrier relatives was embedded in a common haplotype defined after genotyping 4 polymorphic markers on each side of the MYBPC3 gene. This result supports the hypothesis of a common ancestor. Furthermore, we evaluated that the mutation occurred about 47 generations ago, approximately at the 10th century.We then compared the clinical profile of the IVS20-2 mutation carriers (group A) and the carriers of all other mutations (group B). Age at onset of symptoms was similar in the 34 group A cases and the 73 group B cases but group A cases were diagnosed on average 15 years later (log rank test p = 0.022). Age of first complication and first severe complication was delayed in group A vs group B cases but the prevalence of sudden death and age at death was similar in both groups. CONCLUSION: A founder mutation arising at about the 10th century in the MYBPC3 gene accounts for 8.4% of all HCM in center east France and results in a cardiomyopathy starting late and evolving slowly but with an apparent risk of sudden death similar to other sarcomeric mutations.

Evolution of the clinical and epidemiological knowledge about Chagas disease 90 years after its discovery

Three different periods may be considered in the evolution of knowledge about the clinical and epidemiological aspects of Chagas disease since its discovery: (a) early period concerning the studies carried out by Carlos Chagas in Lassance with the collaboration of other investigators of the Manguinhos School. At that time the disease was described and the parasite, transmitters and reservoirs were studied. The coexistence of endemic goiter in the same region generated some confusion about the clinical forms of the disease; (b) second period involving uncertainty and the description of isolated cases, which lasted until the 1940 decade. Many acute cases were described during this period and the disease was recognized in many Latin American countries. Particularly important were the studies of the Argentine Mission of Regional Pathology Studies, which culminated with the description of the Romaña sign in the 1930 decade, facilitating the diagnosis of the early phase of the disease. However, the chronic phase, which was the most important, continued to be difficult to recognize; (c) period of consolidation of knowledge and recognition of the importance of Chagas disease. Studies conducted by Laranja, Dias and Nóbrega in Bambuí updated the description of Chagas heart disease made by Carlos Chagas and Eurico Villela. From then on, the disease was more easily recognized, especially with the emphasis on the use of a serologic diagnosis; (d) period of enlargement of knowledges on the disease. The studies on denervation conducted in Ribeirão Preto by Fritz Köberle starting in the 1950 decade led to a better understanding of the relations between Chagas disease and megaesophagus and other visceral megas detected in endemic areas.

Medicinal products: regulation of biosynthesis in space and time

We live in a "Demon-Haunted World". Human health care requires the ever increasing resistance of pathogens to be confronted by a correspondingly fast rate of discovery of novel antibiotics. One of the possible strategies towards this objective involves the rational localization of bioactive phytochemicals. The conceptual basis of the method consists in the surprisingly little known gearings of natural products with morphology, ecology and evolution of their plant source, i. e. an introspection into the general mechanisms of nature.

Viral diseases and human evolution

The interaction of man with viral agents was possibly a key factor shaping human evolution, culture and civilization from its outset. Evidence of the effect of disease, since the early stages of human speciation, through pre-historical times to the present suggest that the types of viruses associated with man changed in time. As human populations progressed technologically, they grew in numbers and density. As a consequence different viruses found suitable conditions to thrive and establish long-lasting associations with man. Although not all viral agents cause disease and some may in fact be considered beneficial, the present situation of overpopulation, poverty and ecological inbalance may have devastating effets on human progress. Recently emerged diseases causing massive pandemics (eg., HIV-1 and HCV, dengue, etc.) are becoming formidable challenges, which may have a direct impact on the fate of our species.

Vertebrate conserved non coding DNA regions have a high persistence length and a short persistence time.

BACKGROUND: The comparison of complete genomes has revealed surprisingly large numbers of conserved non-protein-coding (CNC) DNA regions. However, the biological function of CNC remains elusive. CNC differ in two aspects from conserved protein-coding regions. They are not conserved across phylum boundaries, and they do not contain readily detectable sub-domains. Here we characterize the persistence length and time of CNC and conserved protein-coding regions in the vertebrate and insect lineages. RESULTS: The persistence length is the length of a genome region over which a certain level of sequence identity is consistently maintained. The persistence time is the evolutionary period during which a conserved region evolves under the same selective constraints.Our main findings are: (i) Insect genomes contain 1.60 times less conserved information than vertebrates; (ii) Vertebrate CNC have a higher persistence length than conserved coding regions or insect CNC; (iii) CNC have shorter persistence times as compared to conserved coding regions in both lineages. CONCLUSION: Higher persistence length of vertebrate CNC indicates that the conserved information in vertebrates and insects is organized in functional elements of different lengths. These findings might be related to the higher morphological complexity of vertebrates and give clues about the structure of active CNC elements.Shorter persistence time might explain the previously puzzling observations of highly conserved CNC within each phylum, and of a lack of conservation between phyla. It suggests that CNC divergence might be a key factor in vertebrate evolution. Further evolutionary studies will help to relate individual CNC to specific developmental processes.

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

Dynamics of evolution and resistance to starvation of Triatoma vitticeps (Stal 1859) (Reduviidae: Triatominae), submitted to two different regimens of food deprivation

The resistance to starvation of Triatoma vitticeps has been analyzed comparatively, according to different regimens of food deprivation under laboratory conditions. One cohort, composed of 100 specimens of each evolutionary nymphal stage, was submitted to continuous fasting until death; the second group, arranged in the same way, was fed once on chicken. Through this work, it was possible not only to compare the results obtained from the first group with other authors' results but, also, to analyze the dynamics of evolution, molting, longevity and the increase in insect longevity, in the second group. The average values recorded for survival time revealed statistical differences between the two groups. Among the important results detected, there is one that deserves to be emphasized: the incredible increase in longevity among insects that received only one feed - an average increase in survival time that reached 2.95 to 3.30 times in nymphs of 3rd and 4th stages, respectively. One 5th stage nymph survived for up to 350 days and the females may triplicate their survival rate, what represents an important epidemiological factor. The knowledge about this type of biological characteristic of T. vitticeps may contribute to prevent the domiciliation of this species, what seems to be incipient in some municipal districts, in Brazil.