Le role des politiques monétaires et la convergence macroeconomique sur le développement des systèmes financiers dans les pays du sud de la Méditerranée. = The role of monetary policies and macroeconomic convergence in the development of financial systems in south Mediterranean countries. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 12/April 2012

This MEDPRO Technical Report shows that the monetary and exchange rate policies conducted by central banks in the South Mediterranean region display apparent homogeneity in their operational frameworks, albeit with some specificities and differing degrees of advancement. While central banks state that price stability is their ultimate objective, failures to control interest rates as operational objectives of monetary policy result in monetary authorities resorting to quantitative approaches to monetary policy, meaning that monetary aggregates and credit targets are being used as intermediate targets of monetary policy. An econometric exercise limited to Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia) has been conducted to analyse the potential scenarios of convergence and monetary policy coordination. Given the high structural heterogeneity and the slow pace of real convergence due to weak commercial integration in the Maghreb, results nevertheless show alternative dynamics in the integration of effective nominal exchange rates, as well as a complete convergence dynamic in exchange rate policies. Partial convergence of monetary policies regarding the stabilisation of inflation rates remains an open option for a transitional phase where financial integration is low.

Belarus at a crossroads. Bruegel Policy Contribution Issue 2016/02 January 2016

Highlights: • Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Belarus has maintained a largely non-market economic system. This did not prevent rapid growth of its economy over a sustained period up to 2011. However, the period of economic growth in Belarus seems to be over.The factors that underpinned Belarus’s growth, mainly the beneficial external environment, have gradually disappeared. As a result, the country is confronted by the need to start the far-reaching programme of market-oriented economic reforms and macroeconomic stabilisation which it tried to avoid for so long. Reform will not be easy, economically and politically. • The potential hardship facing Belarus could be at least partly cushioned by external assistance, in the first instance from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. However, the IMF has relatively fresh memories of the failure of its 2009-10 Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with Belarus, which provided substantial balance-of payments support, but which was derailed by its too-narrow focus on monetary and fiscal quantitative performance criteria, and by insufficient reform commitment on the Belarusian side. Other donors, such as the European Union, might be reluctant to offer assistance as long as Belarus does not improve its poor human rights record and start some political reforms.

A stable Libya would close the door to Daesh. CEPS Policy Brief No. 340, March 2016

Since the fall of the Gaddafi regime in 2011, everything has seemed to conspire against the transition process in Libya. The idea of a stabilisation force has met political resistance in most European countries, because there is little appetite for long-term interventions that carry a high risk of casualties. This author argues that, among other initiatives, ground forces are nevertheless a necessary component of stabilisation in this fragile country. He makes four recommendations to guide the engagement of external actors.

A proposal to revive the European Fiscal Framework. Bruegel Policy Contribution ISSUE 2016/07 MARCH 2016

Pro-cyclical fiscal tightening might be one reason for the anaemic economic recovery in Europe, raising questions about the effectiveness of the EU’s fiscal framework in achieving its two main objectives: public debt sustainability and fiscal stabilisation. • In theory, the current EU fiscal rules, with cyclically adjusted targets, flexibility clauses and the option to enter an excessive deficit procedure, allow for large-scale fiscal stabilisation during a recession. However, implementation of the rules is hindered by the badly-measured structural balance indicator and incorrect forecasts, leading to erroneous policy recommendations. The large number of flexibility clauses makes the system opaque. • The current inefficient European fiscal framework should be replaced with a system based on rules that are more conducive to the two objectives, more transparent, easier to implement and which have a higher potential to be complied with. • The best option, re-designing the fiscal framework from scratch, is currently unrealistic. Therefore we propose to eliminate the structural balance rules and to introduce a new public expenditure rule with debt-correction feedback, embodied in a multi-annual framework, which would also support the central bank’s inflation target. A European Fiscal Council could oversee the system.

Flexibility versus Stability: A difficult trade-off in the eurozone. CEPS Working Document No. 422, 29 April 2016

Optimal currency area (OCA) theory has been influential in pushing eurozone countries towards structural reforms to make product and labour markets more flexible. The underlying assumption of the OCA prescription for structural reform is that asymmetric shocks are permanent. However, when shocks are temporary it does not follow that more flexibility is the answer. When shocks are the result of business-cycle movements, the way to deal with them is by stabilisation efforts. This paper provides empirical evidence that suggests that the biggest shocks in the eurozone were the result of business-cycle movements. These were relatively well synchronised, except for their amplitude. We argue that efforts to stabilise business cycles should be strengthened relative to the efforts that have been made to impose structural reforms, with consideration given to the implications for the governance of the eurozone.

Hostages to dialogue. The process of normalising Serbian-Kosovar relations. OSW COMMENTARY No. 214, 2016-06-08

In March 2011, the governments of Kosovo and Serbia started a dialogue that was intended to lead to the normalisation of mutual relations. This process, launched under the pressure of the EU, was aimed at building up confidence between the parties and resolving the everyday problems of the Serbian and Albanian communities, and as a consequence, reducing tension in the Western Balkans. The start of talks between representatives of the antagonist countries was the breakthrough that led to the Kosovo government gaining control over the whole of its territory, the establishment of a border (or ‘administrative boundary line’, as Belgrade calls it), and the start of the process of subordinating the Kosovo Serbian institutions to the authorities in Prishtina. Serbia also lifted its trade blockade on Kosovo, and allowed Prishtina to join the regional organisations. As a result, progress has been made in the process of integration of both states with the EU: Serbia has started accession negotiations, and Kosovo has signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA).

L'effet des enrochements sur l'utilisation de l'espace par les communautés de poissons dans les Basses-Terres du Saint-Laurent.

Ce mémoire a été effectué dans le cadre d'une étude pour le Ministère des Transports.

Testing the sediment-trapping paradigm of seagrass: Do seagrasses influence nutrient status and sediment structure in tropical intertidal environments?

Seagrass meadows are considered important for sediment trapping and sediment stabilisation. Deposition of fine sediments and associated adsorbed nutrients is considered an important part of the chemical and biological processes attributed to seagrass communities. This paradigm was based on work in temperate regions on Zostera marina and in tropical regions on Thalassia testudinum, two species that maintain relatively high biomass, stable meadows. The current study investigates this concept for three species of intertidal tropical seagrass meadows in northeastern Australia. Sediment structure and nutrient status did not differ between vegetated and unvegated habitats in intertidal areas within the central region of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area. The 'trapping' functions that have been attributed to seagrasses need to be re-assessed for a variety of locations and species before they can be accepted as dogma. In tropical Australia, intertidal meadows are predominantly ephemeral and comprised of structurally small species of low biomass. Consequently, sediment trapping within these meadows is largely insignificant.

Spatio-temporal evaluation of neck muscle activation during postural perturbations in healthy subjects

The purpose of this study was to examine the spatio-temporal activation of the sternocleidomastoid (SCM) and cervical extensor (CE) muscles with respect to the deltoid muscle onset during rapid voluntary upper limb movement in healthy volunteers. The repeatability and reliability of the spatio-temporal aspects of the myoelectric signals were also examined. Ten subjects performed bilateral and unilateral rapid upper limb flexion, abduction and extension in response to a visual stimulus. EMG onsets and normalised root mean square (nRMS) values were calculated for the SCM and CE muscles. Subjects attended three testing sessions over non-consecutive days allowing the repeatability and reliability of these measures to be assessed. The SCM and CE muscles demonstrated feed-forward activation (activation within 50 ms of deltoid onset) during rapid arm movements in all directions. The sequence and magnitude of neck muscle activation displayed directional specificity, however, the neck flexor and extensor muscles displayed co-activation during all perturbations. EMG onsets demonstrated high repeatability in terms of repeated measure precision (nSEM in the range 1.9-5.7%). This was less evident for the repeatability of nRMS values. The results of this study provide a greater understanding of cervical neuromotor control strategies. During bilateral and unilateral upper limb perturbations, the SCM and CE muscles demonstrate feed-forward co-activation. It seems apparent that feed-forward activation of neck muscles is a mechanism necessary to achieve stability for the visual and vestibular systems, whilst ensuring stabilisation and protection of the cervical spine. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends for in situ and invasive melanoma in Queensland, Australia, 1982-2002

Objectives Queensland, the north-eastern state of Australia, has the highest incidence of melanoma in the world. Control measures started earlier here than probably anywhere else in the world; early detection programmes started in the 1960s and primary prevention in the 1980s. Data from the population-based Queensland Cancer Registry therefore provide an internationally unique data source with which to assess trends for in situ and invasive melanomas and to consider the implications for early detection and primary prevention. Methods We used Poisson regression to estimate the annual percentage change in rates across 21 years of incidence data for in situ and invasive lesions, stratified by age and sex. Joinpoint analyses were used to assess whether there had been a statistically significant change in the trends. Results In situ melanomas increased by 10.4% (95% CI: 10.1%, 11.1%) per year among males and 8.4% (7.9%, 8.9%) per year among females. The incidence of invasive lesions also increased, but not as quickly; males 2.6% (2.4%, 2.8%), females 1.2% (0.9%, 1.5%). Valid data on thickness was only available for 1991 to 2002 and for this period thin-invasive lesions were increasing faster than thick-invasive lesions (for example, among males: thin 3.8%, thick 2.0%). We found some suggestive evidence of lower proportionate increase for the most recent years for both in-situ and invasive lesions, but this did not achieve statistical significance. Among people younger than 35 years, the incidence of invasive melanoma was stable and there was a suggestion of a birth cohort effect from about 1958. Mortality rates were stable across all ages, and there was a suggestion of decreasing rates among young women, although this did not achieve statistical significance. Conclusion Age-standardised incidence is continuing to increase and this, in combination with a shift to proportionately more in situ lesions, suggests that the stabilisation of mortality rates is due, in large part, to earlier detection. For primary prevention, after a substantial period of sustained effort in Queensland, there is some suggestive, but not definitive, evidence that progress is being made. Incidence rates are stabilising in those younger than 35 years and the proportionate increase for both in situ and invasive lesions appears to be lower for the most recent period compared with previous periods. However, even taking the most favourable view of these trends, primary prevention is unlikely to lead to decreases in the overall incidence rate of melanoma for at least another 20 years. Consequently, the challenge for primary prevention programmes will be to maintain momentum over the long term. If this can be achieved, the eventual public-health benefits are likely to be substantial.

Low jitter, long distance pulse transmission near net fibre dispersion zero wavelength

The authors study experimentally ~10 ps return-to-zero pulse propagation near the net dispersion zero of an optical fibre transmission line. Stable near-jitter-free propagation was observed over 70 Mm. Pulse stabilisation and ASE suppression were achieved through the saturable aborber mechanism of nonlinear polarisation rotation.

Dispersion aspects of periodically amplified soliton transmission systems

This thesis presents improvements to optical transmission systems through the use of optical solitons as a digital transmission format, both theoretically and experimentally. An introduction to the main concepts and impairments of optical fibre on pulse transmission is included before introducing the concept of solitons in optically amplified communications and the problems of soliton system design. The theoretical work studies two fibre dispersion profiling schemes and a soliton launch improvement. The first provides superior pulse transmission by optimally tailoring the fibre dispersion to better follow the power, and hence nonlinearity, decay and thus allow soliton transmission for longer amplifier spacings and shorter pulse widths than normally possible. The second profiling scheme examines the use of dispersion compensating fibre in the context of soliton transmission over existing, standard fibre systems. The limits for solitons in uncompensated standard fibre are assessed, before the potential benefits of dispersion compensating fibre included as part of each amplifier are shown. The third theoretical investigation provides a simple improvement to the propagation of solitons in a highly perturbed system. By introducing a section of fibre of the correct length prior to the first system amplifier span, the soliton shape can be better coupled into the system thus providing an improved "average soliton" propagation model. The experimental work covers two areas. An important issue for soliton systems is pulse sources. Three potential lasers are studied, two ring laser configurations and one semiconductor device with external pulse shaping. The second area studies soliton transmission using a recalculating loop, reviewing the advantages and draw-backs of such an experiment in system testing and design. One particular example of employing the recirculating loop is also examined, using a novel method of pulse shape stabilisation over long distances with low jitter. The future for nonlinear optical communications is considered with the thesis conclusions.

Ultra-long haul optical fibre transmission systems

This thesis examines experimentally options for optical fibre transmission over oceanic distances. Its format follows the chronological evolution of ultra-long haul optical systems, commencing with opto-electronic regenerators as repeaters, progressing to optically amplified NRZ systems and finally solitonic propagation. In each case recirculating loop techniques are deployed to simplify the transmission experiments. Advances in high speed electronics have allowed regenerators operating at 10 Gbit/s to become a practical reality. By augmenting such devices with optical amplifiers it is possible to greatly enhance the repeater spacing. Work detailed in this thesis has culminated in the propagation of 10 Gbit/s data over 400,000 km with a repeater spacing of 160 km. System reliability and robustness are enhanced by the use of a directly modulated DFB laser transmitter and total insensitivity of the system to the signal state of polarisation. Optically amplified ultra-long haul NRZ systems have taken on particular importance with the impending deployment of TAT 12/13 and TPC 5. The performance of these systems is demonstrated to be primarily limited by analogue impairments such as the accumulation of amplifier noise, polarisation effects and optical non-linearities. These degradations may be reduced by the use of appropriate dispersion maps and by scrambling the transmitted state of signal polarisation. A novel high speed optically passive polarisation scrambler is detailed for the first time. At bit rates in excess of 10 Gbit/s it is shown that these systems are severely limited and do not offer the advantages that might be expected over regenerated links. Propagation using solitons as the data bits appears particularly attractive since the dispersive and non-linear effects of the fibre allow distortion free transmission. However, the generation of pure solitons is difficult but must be achieved if the uncontrolled transmission distance is to be maximised. This thesis presents a new technique for the stabilisation of an erbium fibre ring laser that has aUowed propagation of 2.5 Gbit/s solitons to the theoretical limit of ~ 18,000 km. At higher bit rates temporal jitter becomes a significant impairment and to aUow an increase in the aggregate line rate multiplexing in both time and polarisation domains has been proposed. These techniques are shown to be of only limited benefit in practical systems and ultimately some form of soliton transmission control is required. The thesis demonstrates synchronous retiming by amplitude modulation that has allowed 20 Gbit/s data to propagate 125,000 km error free with an amplifier spacing approaching the soliton period. Ultimately the speed of operation of such systems is limited by the electronics used and, thus, a new form of soliton control is demonstrated using all optical techniques to achieve synchronous phase modulation.

War crimes, conditionality and EU integration in the Western Balkans

The baleful legacy of the wars of the 1990s continues to dog the states and societies of the former Yugoslavia and has overshadowed the disappointingly slow and hesitant trajectory of the region towards the EU. At the start of the new millennium, with the removal of key wartime leaders from the political scene in both Croatia and Serbia, it was widely hoped that the region would prove able to ‘leave the past behind’ and rapidly move on to the hopeful new agenda of EU integration. The EU’s Copenhagen criteria, which in 1993 first explicitly set out the basic political conditions expected of aspirant EU Member States, proved effective in the case of the new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe in supporting the entrenchment of democratic norms and practices, and stimulating reconciliation and good neighbourly relations among countries with turbulent histories. Building on this experience, the Stabilisation and Association Process, launched for the countries of the Western Balkans in 1999, included both full cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and regional reconciliation among the political conditions set for advancing these countries on the path to EU integration. EU political conditionality was intended to support the efforts of new political leaders to redefine national goals away from the nationalist enmities of the past and focus firmly on forging a path to a better future. This Chaillot Paper examines the extent to which this strategy has worked, especially in the light of the difficulties it has encountered in the face of strong resistance to cooperation among sections of the former Yugoslav population, many of whom have not yet fully acknowledged the crimes committed during the 1990s. Key chapters in the volume raise the vital questions of leadership and political will. EU political conditionality does not work unless the EU has a partner ready and willing to ‘play the game’, which presupposes that EU integration has become the overriding priority on the national political agenda.

The antioxidant role of vitamin E in polyolefins

Polymers are subject to oxidation throughout their lifecycle. Antioxidants are generally incorporated in polymers to inhibit or minimise oxidative degradation. Hindered phenolic antioxidants are important stabilisers for polyolefins. However, hindered phenols undergo chemical transformations while performing their antioxidant function during processing and fabrication. In addition, antioxidants are subject to loss from polymers during processing, or subsequently in-service. Migration of antioxidants is a major concern in applications involving polymers in direct contact with food and human environment. This concern is compounded by the realisation that very little is known about the nature and the migration behaviour of antioxidant transformation products. In this work, the antioxidant role of the biological antioxidant -tocopherol (Vitamin E) , which is structurally similar to many synthetic hindered phenols, is investigated in low density polyethylene (LDPE) and polypropylene (PP). The melt stabilising effectiveness of -tocopherol (Toc) was found to be very high, higher than that of commercial hindered phenol antioxidants, such as Irganox 1076 (Irg 1076) and Irganox 1010 (Irg 1010), after multiple extrusions, especially at very low concentrations. The high antioxidant activity of Toc was shown to be due, at least in part, to the formation of transformation products during processing. The main products formed are stereoisomers of dimers and trimers, as well as aldehydes and a quinone - the relative concentration of each was shown to depend on the processing severity, the initial antioxidant concentration and oxygen availability. These transformation products are shown to impart better, similar or lower melt stability to the polymer than the parent antioxidant. The nature of the products formed from Toc during processing was compared with those formed during processing of Irg 1076 and Irg 1010 with LDPE and a mechanism for the melt stabilisation of Toc was proposed and compared with the stabilisation mechanisms of the synthetic antioxidants Irg 1076 and Irg 1010.