Laminar-turbulent transition induced by a discrete roughness element in a supersonic boundary layer

The linear instability and breakdown to turbulence induced by an isolated roughness element in a boundary layer at Mach 2:5, over an isothermal flat plate with laminar adiabatic wall temperature, have been analysed by means of direct numerical simulations, aided by spatial BiGlobal and three-dimensional parabolized (PSE-3D) stability analyses. It is important to understand transition in this flow regime since the process can be slower than in incompressible flow and is crucial to prediction of local heat loads on next-generation flight vehicles. The results show that the roughness element, with a height of the order of the boundary layer displacement thickness, generates a highly unstable wake, which is composed of a low-velocity streak surrounded by a three-dimensional high-shear layer and is able to sustain the rapid growth of a number of instability modes. The most unstable of these modes are associated with varicose or sinuous deformations of the low-velocity streak; they are a consequence of the instability developing in the three-dimensional shear layer as a whole (the varicose mode) or in the lateral shear layers (the sinuous mode). The most unstable wake mode is of the varicose type and grows on average 17% faster tan the most unstable sinuous mode and 30 times faster than the most unstable boundary layer mode occurring in the absence of a roughness element. Due to the high growthrates registered in the presence of the roughness element, an amplification factor of N D 9 is reached within 50 roughness heights from the roughness trailing edge. The independently performed Navier–Stokes, spatial BiGlobal and PSE-3D stability results are in excellent agreement with each other, validating the use of simplified theories for roughness-induced transition involving wake instabilities. Following the linear stages of the laminar–turbulent transition process, the roll-up of the three-dimensional shear layer leads to the formation of a wedge of turbulence, which spreads laterally at a rate similar to that observed in the case of compressible turbulent spots for the same Mach number.

A semantic middleware architecture focused on data and heterogeneity management within the Smart Grid

There is an increasing tendency of turning the current power grid, essentially unaware of variations in electricity demand and scattered energy sources, into something capable of bringing a degree of intelligence by using tools strongly related to information and communication technologies, thus turning into the so-called Smart Grid. In fact, it could be considered that the Smart Grid is an extensive smart system that spreads throughout any area where power is required, providing a significant optimization in energy generation, storage and consumption. However, the information that must be treated to accomplish these tasks is challenging both in terms of complexity (semantic features, distributed systems, suitable hardware) and quantity (consumption data, generation data, forecasting functionalities, service reporting), since the different energy beneficiaries are prone to be heterogeneous, as the nature of their own activities is. This paper presents a proposal on how to deal with these issues by using a semantic middleware architecture that integrates different components focused on specific tasks, and how it is used to handle information at every level and satisfy end user requests.

Propuestas regulatorias para el diseño de un mercado ibérico a plazo eficiente de la energía = Regulatory proposals for the development of an efficient iberian energy forward market

El mercado ibérico de futuros de energía eléctrica gestionado por OMIP (“Operador do Mercado Ibérico de Energia, Pólo Português”, con sede en Lisboa), también conocido como el mercado ibérico de derivados de energía, comenzó a funcionar el 3 de julio de 2006. Se analiza la eficiencia de este mercado organizado, por lo que se estudia la precisión con la que sus precios de futuros predicen el precio de contado. En dicho mercado coexisten dos modos de negociación: el mercado continuo (modo por defecto) y la contratación mediante subasta. En la negociación en continuo, las órdenes anónimas de compra y de venta interactúan de manera inmediata e individual con órdenes contrarias, dando lugar a operaciones con un número indeterminado de precios para cada contrato. En la negociación a través de subasta, un precio único de equilibrio maximiza el volumen negociado, liquidándose todas las operaciones a ese precio. Adicionalmente, los miembros negociadores de OMIP pueden liquidar operaciones “Over-The-Counter” (OTC) a través de la cámara de compensación de OMIP (OMIClear). Las cinco mayores empresas españolas de distribución de energía eléctrica tenían la obligación de comprar electricidad hasta julio de 2009 en subastas en OMIP, para cubrir parte de sus suministros regulados. De igual manera, el suministrador de último recurso portugués mantuvo tal obligación hasta julio de 2010. Los precios de equilibrio de esas subastas no han resultado óptimos a efectos retributivos de tales suministros regulados dado que dichos precios tienden a situarse ligeramente sesgados al alza. La prima de riesgo ex-post, definida como la diferencia entre los precios a plazo y de contado en el periodo de entrega, se emplea para medir su eficiencia de precio. El mercado de contado, gestionado por OMIE (“Operador de Mercado Ibérico de la Energía”, conocido tradicionalmente como “OMEL”), tiene su sede en Madrid. Durante los dos primeros años del mercado de futuros, la prima de riesgo media tiende a resultar positiva, al igual que en otros mercados europeos de energía eléctrica y gas natural. En ese periodo, la prima de riesgo ex-post tiende a ser negativa en los mercados de petróleo y carbón. Los mercados de energía tienden a mostrar niveles limitados de eficiencia de mercado. La eficiencia de precio del mercado de futuros aumenta con el desarrollo de otros mecanismos coexistentes dentro del mercado ibérico de electricidad (conocido como “MIBEL”) –es decir, el mercado dominante OTC, las subastas de centrales virtuales de generación conocidas en España como Emisiones Primarias de Energía, y las subastas para cubrir parte de los suministros de último recurso conocidas en España como subastas CESUR– y con una mayor integración de los mercados regionales europeos de energía eléctrica. Se construye un modelo de regresión para analizar la evolución de los volúmenes negociados en el mercado continuo durante sus cuatro primeros años como una función de doce indicadores potenciales de liquidez. Los únicos indicadores significativos son los volúmenes negociados en las subastas obligatorias gestionadas por OMIP, los volúmenes negociados en el mercado OTC y los volúmenes OTC compensados por OMIClear. El número de creadores de mercado, la incorporación de agentes financieros y compañías de generación pertenecientes a grupos integrados con suministradores de último recurso, y los volúmenes OTC compensados por OMIClear muestran una fuerte correlación con los volúmenes negociados en el mercado continuo. La liquidez de OMIP está aún lejos de los niveles alcanzados por los mercados europeos más maduros (localizados en los países nórdicos (Nasdaq OMX Commodities) y Alemania (EEX)). El operador de mercado y su cámara de compensación podrían desarrollar acciones eficientes de marketing para atraer nuevos agentes activos en el mercado de contado (p.ej. industrias consumidoras intensivas de energía, suministradores, pequeños productores, compañías energéticas internacionales y empresas de energías renovables) y agentes financieros, captar volúmenes del opaco OTC, y mejorar el funcionamiento de los productos existentes aún no líquidos. Resultaría de gran utilidad para tales acciones un diálogo activo con todos los agentes (participantes en el mercado, operador de mercado de contado, y autoridades supervisoras). Durante sus primeros cinco años y medio, el mercado continuo presenta un crecimento de liquidez estable. Se mide el desempeño de sus funciones de cobertura mediante la ratio de posición neta obtenida al dividir la posición abierta final de un contrato de derivados mensual entre su volumen acumulado en la cámara de compensación. Los futuros carga base muestran la ratio más baja debido a su buena liquidez. Los futuros carga punta muestran una mayor ratio al producirse su menor liquidez a través de contadas subastas fijadas por regulación portuguesa. Las permutas carga base liquidadas en la cámara de compensación ubicada en Madrid –MEFF Power, activa desde el 21 de marzo de 2011– muestran inicialmente valores altos debido a bajos volúmenes registrados, dado que esta cámara se emplea principalmente para vencimientos pequeños (diario y semanal). Dicha ratio puede ser una poderosa herramienta de supervisión para los reguladores energéticos cuando accedan a todas las transacciones de derivados en virtud del Reglamento Europeo sobre Integridad y Transparencia de los Mercados de Energía (“REMIT”), en vigor desde el 28 de diciembre de 2011. La prima de riesgo ex-post tiende a ser positiva en todos los mecanismos (futuros en OMIP, mercado OTC y subastas CESUR) y disminuye debido a la curvas de aprendizaje y al efecto, desde el año 2011, del precio fijo para la retribución de la generación con carbón autóctono. Se realiza una comparativa con los costes a plazo de generación con gas natural (diferencial “clean spark spread”) obtenido como la diferencia entre el precio del futuro eléctrico y el coste a plazo de generación con ciclo combinado internalizando los costes de emisión de CO2. Los futuros eléctricos tienen una elevada correlación con los precios de gas europeos. Los diferenciales de contratos con vencimiento inmediato tienden a ser positivos. Los mayores diferenciales se dan para los contratos mensuales, seguidos de los trimestrales y anuales. Los generadores eléctricos con gas pueden maximizar beneficios con contratos de menor vencimiento. Los informes de monitorización por el operador de mercado que proporcionan transparencia post-operacional, el acceso a datos OTC por el regulador energético, y la valoración del riesgo regulatorio pueden contribuir a ganancias de eficiencia. Estas recomendaciones son también válidas para un potencial mercado ibérico de futuros de gas, una vez que el hub ibérico de gas –actualmente en fase de diseño, con reuniones mensuales de los agentes desde enero de 2013 en el grupo de trabajo liderado por el regulador energético español– esté operativo. El hub ibérico de gas proporcionará transparencia al atraer más agentes y mejorar la competencia, incrementando su eficiencia, dado que en el mercado OTC actual no se revela precio alguno de gas. ABSTRACT The Iberian Power Futures Market, managed by OMIP (“Operador do Mercado Ibérico de Energia, Pólo Português”, located in Lisbon), also known as the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market, started operations on 3 July 2006. The market efficiency, regarding how well the future price predicts the spot price, is analysed for this energy derivatives exchange. There are two trading modes coexisting within OMIP: the continuous market (default mode) and the call auction. In the continuous trading, anonymous buy and sell orders interact immediately and individually with opposite side orders, generating trades with an undetermined number of prices for each contract. In the call auction trading, a single price auction maximizes the traded volume, being all trades settled at the same price (equilibrium price). Additionally, OMIP trading members may settle Over-the-Counter (OTC) trades through OMIP clearing house (OMIClear). The five largest Spanish distribution companies have been obliged to purchase in auctions managed by OMIP until July 2009, in order to partly cover their portfolios of end users’ regulated supplies. Likewise, the Portuguese last resort supplier kept that obligation until July 2010. The auction equilibrium prices are not optimal for remuneration purposes of regulated supplies as such prices seem to be slightly upward biased. The ex-post forward risk premium, defined as the difference between the forward and spot prices in the delivery period, is used to measure its price efficiency. The spot market, managed by OMIE (Market Operator of the Iberian Energy Market, Spanish Pool, known traditionally as “OMEL”), is located in Madrid. During the first two years of the futures market, the average forward risk premium tends to be positive, as it occurs with other European power and natural gas markets. In that period, the ex-post forward risk premium tends to be negative in oil and coal markets. Energy markets tend to show limited levels of market efficiency. The price efficiency of the Iberian Power Futures Market improves with the market development of all the coexistent forward contracting mechanisms within the Iberian Electricity Market (known as “MIBEL”) – namely, the dominant OTC market, the Virtual Power Plant Auctions known in Spain as Energy Primary Emissions, and the auctions catering for part of the last resort supplies known in Spain as CESUR auctions – and with further integration of European Regional Electricity Markets. A regression model tracking the evolution of the traded volumes in the continuous market during its first four years is built as a function of twelve potential liquidity drivers. The only significant drivers are the traded volumes in OMIP compulsory auctions, the traded volumes in the OTC market, and the OTC cleared volumes by OMIClear. The amount of market makers, the enrolment of financial members and generation companies belonging to the integrated group of last resort suppliers, and the OTC cleared volume by OMIClear show strong correlation with the traded volumes in the continuous market. OMIP liquidity is still far from the levels reached by the most mature European markets (located in the Nordic countries (Nasdaq OMX Commodities) and Germany (EEX)). The market operator and its clearing house could develop efficient marketing actions to attract new entrants active in the spot market (e.g. energy intensive industries, suppliers, small producers, international energy companies and renewable generation companies) and financial agents as well as volumes from the opaque OTC market, and to improve the performance of existing illiquid products. An active dialogue with all the stakeholders (market participants, spot market operator, and supervisory authorities) will help to implement such actions. During its firs five and a half years, the continuous market shows steady liquidity growth. The hedging performance is measured through a net position ratio obtained from the final open interest of a month derivatives contract divided by its accumulated cleared volume. The base load futures in the Iberian energy derivatives exchange show the lowest ratios due to good liquidity. The peak futures show bigger ratios as their reduced liquidity is produced by auctions fixed by Portuguese regulation. The base load swaps settled in the clearing house located in Spain – MEFF Power, operating since 21 March 2011, with a new denomination (BME Clearing) since 9 September 2013 – show initially large values due to low registered volumes, as this clearing house is mainly used for short maturity (daily and weekly swaps). The net position ratio can be a powerful oversight tool for energy regulators when accessing to all the derivatives transactions as envisaged by European regulation on Energy Market Integrity and Transparency (“REMIT”), in force since 28 December 2011. The ex-post forward risk premium tends to be positive in all existing mechanisms (OMIP futures, OTC market and CESUR auctions) and diminishes due to the learning curve and the effect – since year 2011 – of the fixed price retributing the indigenous coal fired generation. Comparison with the forward generation costs from natural gas (“clean spark spread”) – obtained as the difference between the power futures price and the forward generation cost with a gas fired combined cycle plant taking into account the CO2 emission rates – is also performed. The power futures are strongly correlated with European gas prices. The clean spark spreads built with prompt contracts tend to be positive. The biggest clean spark spreads are for the month contract, followed by the quarter contract and then by the year contract. Therefore, gas fired generation companies can maximize profits trading with contracts of shorter maturity. Market monitoring reports by the market operator providing post-trade transparency, OTC data access by the energy regulator, and assessment of the regulatory risk can contribute to efficiency gains. The same recommendations are also valid for a potential Iberian gas futures market, once an Iberian gas hub – currently in a design phase, with monthly meetings amongst the stakeholders in a Working Group led by the Spanish energy regulatory authority since January 2013 – is operating. The Iberian gas hub would bring transparency attracting more shippers and improving competition and thus its efficiency, as no gas price is currently disclosed in the existing OTC market.

Performance profiles of football teams in the UEFA Champions League considering situational efficiency

Performance of football teams varies constantly due to the dynamic nature of this sport, whilst the typical performance and its spread can be represented by profiles combining different performance-related variables based on data from multiple matches. The current study aims to use a profiling technique to evaluate and compare match performance of football teams in the UEFA Champions League incorporating three situational variables (i.e. strength of team and opponent, match outcome and match location). Match statistics of 72 teams, 496 games across four seasons (2008-09 to 2012-13) of this competition were analysed. Sixteen performance-related events were included: shots, shots on target, shots from open play, shots from set piece, shots from counter attack, passes, pass accuracy (%), crosses, through balls, corners, dribbles, possession, aerial success (%), fouls, tackles, and yellow cards. Teams were classified into three levels of strength by a k-cluster analysis. Profiles of overall performance and profiles incorporating three situational variables for teams of all three levels of strength were set up by presenting the mean, standard deviation, median, lower and upper quartiles of the counts of each event to represent their typical performances and spreads. Means were compared by using one-way ANOVA and independent sample t test (for match location, home and away differences), and were plotted into the same radar charts after unifying all the event counts by standardised score. Established profiles can present straightforwardly typical performances of football teams of different levels playing in different situations, which could provide detailed references for coaches and analysts to evaluate performances of upcoming opposition and of their own.

Reliable Spreading of messages in not eponymous systems

The broadcast service spreads a message m among all processes of the system, such that each process eventually delivers m. A basic broadcast service does not impose any delivery guarantee in a system with failures. Fault-tolerant broadcast is a fundamental problem in distributed systems that adds certainty in the delivery of messages when crashes can happen in the system. Traditionally, the fault-tolerant broadcast service has been studied in classical distributed systems when each process has a unique identity (eponymous system). In this paper we study the fault-tolerant broadcast service in anonymous systems, that is, in systems where all processes are indistinguishable.

Evaluación del rendimiento de jugadores y equipos de fútbol de nivel de élite en diferentes contextos situacionales = Evaluation on Match Performances of Professional Football Players and Teams under Different Situational Conditions = 不同情境条件下高水平足球运动员和运动队的比赛表现分析

El análisis del rendimiento en deportes juega un papel esencial en el fútbol profesional. Aunque el estudio del análisis del juego en fútbol se ha utilizado desde diferentes ámbitos y situaciones, todavía existen diferentes aspectos y componentes del juego que siguen sin estar estudiados. En este sentido existen diferentes aspectos que deben de superar los estudios previos centrados en el componente descriptivo tales como el uso de variables/ indicadores de rendimiento que no se han definido ni estudiado, la validez de los métodos observaciones que no han sido testados con los softwares específicos en fútbol, la aplicación y utilidad de los resultados, así como las limitaciones del estudio de las variables situacionales/contextuales. Con el objetivo de cubrir las citadas limitaciones se han diseñado 6 estudios independientes e inter-relacionados que tratan de estudiar los aspectos anteriormente referidos. El primer estudio evalua la fiabilidad inter-observadores de las estadísticas de juego de la empresa privada OPTA Sportsdata, estos datos son la muestra de estudio de la presente tesis doctoral. Dos grupos de observadores experimentados se requieren para analizar un partido de la liga española de manera independiente. Los resultados muestran que los eventos de equipos y porteros codificados por los inter-operadores alcanzan un acuerdo muy bueno (valores kappa entre 0.86 y 0.94). La validez inter-observadores de las acciones de juego y los datos de jugadores individuales se evaluó con elevados niveles de acuerdo (valores del coeficiente de correlación intraclase entre 0.88 hasta 1.00, el error típico estandarizado variaba entre 0.00 hasta 0.37). Los resultados sugieren que las estadísticas de juego registradas por los operadores de la empresa OPTA Sportsdata están bien entrenados y son fiables. El segundo, tercer y cuarto estudio se centran en resaltar la aplicabilidad del análisis de rendimiento en el fútbol así como para explicar en profundidad las influencias de las variables situacionales. Utilizando la técnica de los perfiles de rendimiento de jugadores y equipos de fútbol se puede evaluar y comparar de manera gráfica, fácil y visual. Así mismo, mediante esta técnica se puede controlar el efecto de las variables situacionales (localización del partido, nivel del equipo y del oponente, y el resultado final del partido). Los perfiles de rendimiento de porteros (n = 46 porteros, 744 observaciones) y jugadores de campo (n = 409 jugadores, 5288 observaciones) de la primera division professional de fútbol Española (La Liga, temporada 2012-13), los equipos (n = 496 partidos, 992 observaciones) de la UEFA Champions League (temporadas 2009-10 a 2012-13) fueron analizados registrando la media, desviación típica, mediana, cuartiles superior e inferior y el recuento de valores de cada indicador de rendimiento y evento, los cuales se presentaron en su forma tipificada y normalizada. Los valores medios de los porteros de los equipos de diferentes niveles de La Liga y de los equipos de diferente nivel de la UEFA Champions League cuando jugaban en diferentes contextos de juego y situaciones (variables situacionales) fueron comparados utilizando el ANOVA de un factor y la prueba t para muestras independientes (localización del partido, diferencias entre casa y fuera), y fueron establecidos en los perfiles de red después de unificar todos los registros en la misma escala derivada con valores estandarizados. Mientras que las diferencias de rendimiento entre los jugadores de los mejores equipos (Top3) y los peores (Bottom3) fueron comparados mediante el uso de diferencias en la magnitud del tamaño del efecto. El quinto y el sexto estudio analizaban el rendimiento del fútbol desde un punto de vista de predicción del rendimiento. El modelo linear general y el modelo lineal general mixto fue empleado para analizar la magnitud de las relaciones de los indicadores y estadísticas de juego con el resultado final del partido en función del tipo de partido (partidos ajustados o todos los partidos) en la fase de grupos de la Copa del Mundo 2014 de Brasil (n = 48 partidos, 38 partidos ajustados) y La Liga 2012-13 (n = 320 partidos ajustados). Las relaciones fueron evaluadas mediante las inferencias en la magnitud de las diferencias y se expresaron como partidos extra ganados o perdidos por cada 10 partidos mediante la variable calculada en 2 desviaciones típicas. Los resultados mostraron que, para los 48 partidos de la fase de grupos de la Copa del Mundo 2014, nueve variables tuvieron un efecto positive en la probabilidad de ganar (tiros, tiros a puerta, tiros de contraataque, tiros dentro del área, posesión de balón, pases en corto, media de secuencia de pases, duelos aéreos y entradas), cuatro tuvieron efectos negativos (tiros bloqueados, centros, regates y tarjetas amarillas), y otras 12 variables tenían efectos triviales o poco claros. Mientras que los 38 partidos ajustados, el efecto de duelos aéreos y tarjetas amarillas fueron triviales y claramente negativos respectivamente. En la La Liga, existió un efecto moderado positive para cada equipo para los tiros a puerta (3.4 victorias extras por cada 10 partidos; 99% IC ±1.0), y un efecto positivo reducido para tiros totales (1.7 victorias extrsa; ±1.0). Los efectos de la mayoría de los eventos se han relacionado con la posesión del balón, la cual obtuvo efectos negativos entre equipos (1.2 derrotas extras; ±1.0) pero un efecto positivo pequeño entra equipos (1.7 victorias extras; ±1.4). La localización del partido mostró un efecto positive reducido dentro de los equipos (1.9 victorias extras; ±0.9). Los resultados obtenidos en los perfiles y el modelado del rendimiento permiten ofrecer una información detallada y avanzada para el entrenamiento, la preparación previa a los partidos, el control de la competición y el análisis post-partido, así como la evaluación e identificación del talento de los jugadores. ABSTRACT Match performance analysis plays an important role in the modern professional football. Although the research in football match analysis is well-developed, there are still some issues and problems remaining in this field, which mainly include the lack of operational definitions of variables, reliability issues, applicability of the findings, the lack of contextual/situational variables, and focusing too much on descriptive and comparative analysis. In order to address these issues, six independent but related studies were conducted in the current thesis. The first study evaluated the inter-operator reliability of football match statistics from OPTA Sportsdata Company which is the data resourse of the thesis. Two groups of experienced operators were required to analyse a Spanish league match independently in the experiment. Results showed that team events and goalkeeper actions coded by independent operators reached a very good agreement (kappa values between 0.86 and 0.94). The inter-operator reliability of match actions and events of individual outfield players was also tested to be at a high level (intra-class correlation coefficients ranged from 0.88 to 1.00, standardised typical error varied from 0.00 to 0.37). These results suggest that the football match statistics collected by well-trained operators from OPTA Sportsdata Company are reliable. The second, third and fourth study aims to enhance the applicability of football match performance analysis and to explore deeply the influences of situational variables. By using a profiling technique, technical and tactical performances of football players and teams can be interpreted, evaluated and compared more easily and straightforwardly, meanwhile, influences and effects from situational variables (match location, strength of team and opposition, and match outcome) on the performances can be properly incorporated. Performance profiles of goalkeepers (n = 46 goalkeepers, 744 full match observations) and outfield players (n = 409 players, 5288 full match observations) from the Spanish First Division Professional Football League (La Liga, season 2012-13), teams (n = 496 matches, 992 observations) from UEFA Champions League (seasons 2009-10 to 2012-13) were set up by presenting the mean, standard deviation, median, lower and upper quartiles of the count values of each performance-related match action and event to represent their typical performances and spreads. Means of goalkeeper from different levels of team in La Liga and teams of different strength in UEFA Champions League when playing under different situational conditions were compared by using one-way ANOVA and independent sample t test (for match location, home and away differences), and were plotted into the same radar charts after unifying all the event counts by standardised score. While differences between the performances of outfield players from Top3 and from Bottom3 teams were compared by magnitude-based inferences. The fifth and sixth study aims to move from the descriptive and comparative football match analysis to a more predictive one. Generalised linear modelling and generalised mixed linear modelling were undertaken to quantify relationships of the performance-related match events, actions and variables with the match outcome in different types of games (close games and all games) in the group stage of 2014 Brazil FIFA World Cup (n = 48 games, 38 close games) and La Liga 2012-13 (n = 320 close games). Relationships were evaluated with magnitude-based inferences and were expressed as extra matches won or lost per 10 matches for an increase of two standard deviations of a variable. Results showed that, for all the 48 games in the group stage of 2014 FIFA World Cup, nine variables had clearly positive effects on the probability of winning (shot, shot on target, shot from counter attack, shot from inside area, ball possession, short pass, average pass streak, aerial advantage, and tackle), four had clearly negative effects (shot blocked, cross, dribble and red card), other 12 variabless had either trivial or unclear effects. While for the 38 close games, the effects of aerial advantage and yellow card turned to trivial and clearly negative, respectively. In the La Liga, there was a moderate positive within-team effect from shots on target (3.4 extra wins per 10 matches; 99% confidence limits ±1.0), and a small positive within-team effect from total shots (1.7 extra wins; ±1.0). Effects of most other match events were related to ball possession, which had a small negative within-team effect (1.2 extra losses; ±1.0) but a small positive between-team effect (1.7 extra wins; ±1.4). Game location showed a small positive within-team effect (1.9 extra wins; ±0.9). Results from the established performance profiles and modelling can provide detailed and straightforward information for training, pre-match preparations, in-match tactical approaches and post-match evaluations, as well as for player identification and development. 摘要 比赛表现分析在现代足球中起着举足轻重的作用。尽管如今对足球比赛表现分析的研究已经相对完善，但仍有很多不足之处。这些不足主要体现在：研究中缺乏对研究变量的清晰定义、数据信效度缺失、研究结果的实用性受限、比赛情境因素缺失以及过于集中在描述性和对比性分析等。针对这些问题，本论文通过六个独立而又相互联系的研究，进一步对足球比赛表现分析进行完善。 第一个研究对本论文的数据源--OPTA Sportsdata公司的足球比赛数据的信效度进行了实验检验。实验中，两组数据收集人员被要求对同一场西班牙足球甲级联赛的比赛进行分析。研究结果显示，两组收集人员记录下的球队比赛事件和守门员比赛行为具有高度的一致性(卡帕系数介于0.86和0.94)。收集人员输出的外场球员的比赛行为和比赛事件也具有很高的组间一致性(ICC相关系数介于0.88和1.00，标准化典型误差介于0.00和0.37)。实验结果证明了OPTA Sportsdata公司收集的足球比赛数据具有足够高的信效度。 第二、三、四个研究旨在提升足球比赛表现分析研究结果的实用性以及深度探讨比赛情境因素对足球比赛表现的影响。通过对足球运动员和运动队的比赛技战术表现进行档案创建，可以对运动员和运动队的比赛表现进行简直接而直观的呈现、评价和对比，同时，情境变量(比赛场地、球队和对手实力、比赛结果)对比赛表现的影响也可以被整合到表现档案中。本部分对2012-13赛季西班牙足球甲级联赛的参赛守门员(n = 46球员人次，744比赛场次)和外场球员(n = 409球员人次, 5288比赛场次)以及2009-10至2012-13赛季欧洲足球冠军联赛的参赛球队(n = 496比赛场次)的比赛技战术表现进行了档案创建。在表现档案中，各项比赛技战术指标的均值、标准差、中位数和大小四分位数被用来展现守门员、外场球员和球队的普遍表现和表现浮动性。方差分析(ANOVA)被用来对西甲不同水平球队的守门员、欧冠中不同水平球队在不同比赛情境下的普遍表现(各项指标的均值)进行对比，独立样本t检验被用来对比主客场比赛普遍表现的差异。数据量级推断(magnitude-based inferences)的方法则被用来对西甲前三名和最后三名球队外场球员的普遍表现进行对比分析。所有来自不同水平球队的运动员和不同水平运动队的各项比赛指标皆被转换成了标准分数，从而能把他们在各种不同比赛情境下的普遍表现(各项比赛指标的均值)投到相同的雷达图中进行直观的对比。 第五和第六个研究目的在于进行预测性足球比赛表现分析，从而跨越之前固有的描述性和对比性分析。广义线性模型和广义混合线性模型被用来对2014年巴西世界杯小组赛(n = 48 比赛场次，38小分差场次)和2012-13赛季西甲联赛(n = 320小分差场次)的比赛中各表现相关比赛事件、行为和变量与比赛结果(胜、平、负)的关系进行建模。模型中的关系通过数据量级推断(magnitude-based inferences)的方法来界定，具体表现为某个变量增加两个标准差对比赛结果的影响(每10场比赛中额外取胜或失利的场数)。研究结果显示，在2014年巴西世界杯小组赛的所有48场比赛中，9个变量(射门、射正、反击中射门、禁区内射门、控球、短传、连续传球平均次数、高空球争抢成功率和抢断)与赢球概率有清晰的正相关关系，4个变量(射门被封堵、传中、过人和红牌)与赢球概率有清晰的负相关关系，其他12个被分析的变量与赢球概率的相关关系微小或不清晰。而在38场小分差比赛中，高空球争抢成功率由正相关变为微小关系，黄牌则由微小关系变为清晰的负相关。在西甲联赛中，每一支球队增加两个标准差的“射正球门”可以给每10场比赛带来3.4场额外胜利(99%置信区间±1.0场)，而所有球队作为一个整体，每增加两个标准差的“射正球门”可以给每10场比赛带来1.7场额外胜利(99%置信区间±1.0场)。其他大多数比赛相关事件与比赛结果的相关关系与“控球”相关联。每一支球队增加两个标准差的“控球”将会给每10场比赛带来1.2场额外失利(99%置信区间±1.0场)，而所有球队作为一个整体，每增加两个标准差的“控球”可以给每10场比赛带来1.7场额外胜利(99%置信区间±1.4场)。与客场比赛相对，主场能给球队带来1.9 /10场额外胜利(99%置信区间±0.9场)。 比赛表现档案和模型中得出的研究结果可以为俱乐部、足球队、教练组、表现分析师和运动员提供详细而直接的参考信息。这些信息可用于训练指导、赛前备战、赛中技战术调整和赛后技战术表现分析，也可运用于足球运动员选材、培养和发展。

Analysis of the behavior of multijunction solar cells under high irradiance Gaussian light profiles showing chromatic aberration with emphasis on tunnel junction performance

In this work, we explain the behavior of multijunction solar cells under non-uniform (spatially and in spectral content) light profiles in general and in particular when Gaussian light profiles cause a photo-generated current density, which exceeds locally the peak current density of the tunnel junction. We have analyzed the implications on the tunnel junction's limitation, that is, in the loss of efficiency due to the appearance of a dip in the I–V curve. For that, we have carried out simulations with our three-dimensional distributed model for multijunction solar cells, which contemplates a full description of the tunnel junction and also takes into account the lateral resistances in the tunnel junction. The main findings are that the current density photo-generated spreads out through the lateral resistances of the device, mainly through the tunnel junction layers and the back contact. Therefore, under non-uniform light profiles these resistances are determinant not only to avoid the tunnel junction's limitation but also for mitigating losses in the fill factor. Therefore, taking into account these lateral resistances could be the key for jointly optimizing the concentrator photovoltaic system (concentrator optics, front grid layout and semiconductor structure)

Mitosis in vertebrate somatic cells with two spindles: Implications for the metaphase/anaphase transition checkpoint and cleavage

During mitosis an inhibitory activity associated with unattached kinetochores prevents PtK1 cells from entering anaphase until all kinetochores become attached to the spindle. To gain a better understanding of how unattached kinetochores block the metaphase/anaphase transition we followed mitosis in PtK1 cells containing two independent spindles in a common cytoplasm. We found that unattached kinetochores on one spindle did not block anaphase onset in a neighboring mature metaphase spindle 20 μm away that lacked unattached kinetochores. As in cells containing a single spindle, anaphase onset occurred in the mature spindles x̄ = 24 min after the last kinetochore attached regardless of whether the adjacent immature spindle contained one or more unattached kinetochores. These findings reveal that the inhibitory activity associated with an unattached kinetochore is functionally limited to the vicinity of the spindle containing the unattached kinetochore. We also found that once a mature spindle entered anaphase the neighboring spindle also entered anaphase x̄ = 9 min later regardless of whether it contained monooriented chromosomes. Thus, anaphase onset in the mature spindle catalyzes a “start anaphase” reaction that spreads globally throughout the cytoplasm and overrides the inhibitory signal produced by unattached kinetochores in an adjacent spindle. Finally, we found that cleavage furrows often formed between the two independent spindles. This reveals that the presence of chromosomes and/or a spindle between two centrosomes is not a prerequisite for cleavage in vertebrate somatic cells.

Epithelial and endothelial expression of the green fluorescent protein reporter gene under the control of bovine prion protein (PrP) gene regulatory sequences in transgenic mice

The expression of the cellular form of the prion protein (PrPc) gene is required for prion replication and neuroinvasion in transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. The identification of the cell types expressing PrPc is necessary to understanding how the agent replicates and spreads from peripheral sites to the central nervous system. To determine the nature of the cell types expressing PrPc, a green fluorescent protein reporter gene was expressed in transgenic mice under the control of 6.9 kb of the bovine PrP gene regulatory sequences. It was shown that the bovine PrP gene is expressed as two populations of mRNA differing by alternative splicing of one 115-bp 5′ untranslated exon in 17 different bovine tissues. The analysis of transgenic mice showed reporter gene expression in some cells that have been identified as expressing PrP, such as cerebellar Purkinje cells, lymphocytes, and keratinocytes. In addition, expression of green fluorescent protein was observed in the plexus of the enteric nervous system and in a restricted subset of cells not yet clearly identified as expressing PrP: the epithelial cells of the thymic medullary and the endothelial cells of both the mucosal capillaries of the intestine and the renal capillaries. These data provide valuable information on the distribution of PrPc at the cellular level and argue for roles of the epithelial and endothelial cells in the spread of infection from the periphery to the brain. Moreover, the transgenic mice described in this paper provide a model that will allow for the study of the transcriptional activity of the PrP gene promoter in response to scrapie infection.

Painting of fourth, a chromosome-specific protein in Drosophila

Chromosome-specific gene regulation is known thus far only as a mechanism to equalize the transcriptional activity of the single male X chromosome with that of the two female X chromosomes. In Drosophila melanogaster, a complex including the five Male-Specific Lethal (MSL) proteins, “paints” the male X chromosome, mediating its hypertranscription. Here, with the molecular cloning of Painting of fourth (Pof), we describe a previously uncharacterized gene encoding a chromosome-specific protein in Drosophila. Unlike the MSL proteins, POF paints an autosome, the fourth chromosome of Drosophila melanogaster. Chromosome translocation analysis shows that the binding depends on an initiation site in the proximal region of chromosome 4 and spreads in cis to involve the entire chromosome. The spreading depends on sequences or structures specific to chromosome 4 and cannot extend to parts of other chromosomes translocated to the fourth. Spreading can also occur in trans to a paired homologue that lacks the initiation region. In the related species Drosophila busckii, POF paints the entire X chromosome exclusively in males, suggesting relationships between the fourth chromosome and the X and between POF complexes and dosage-compensation complexes.

Viruses, cytokines, antigens, and autoimmunity.

To explain the pathogenesis of autoimmunity, we hypothesize that following an infection the immune response spreads to tissue-specific autoantigens in genetically predisposed individuals eventually determining progression to disease. Molecular mimicry between viral and self antigens could, in some instances, initiate autoimmunity. Local elicitation of inflammatory cytokines following infection probably plays a pivotal role in determining loss of functional tolerance to self autoantigens and the destructive activation of autoreactive cells. We also describe the potential role of interleukin 10, a powerful B-cell activator, in increasing the efficiency of epitope recognition, that could well be crucial to the progression toward disease.

Visual attention to surfaces in three-dimensional space.

Although attention plays a significant role in vision, its spatial deployment and spread in the third dimension is not well understood. In visual search experiments we show that we cannot easily focus attention across isodepth loci unless they are part of a well-formed surface with locally coplanar elements. Yet we can easily spread our attention selectively across well-formed surfaces that span an extreme range of stereoscopic depths. In cueing experiments, we show that this spread of attention is, in part, obligatory. Attentional selectivity is reduced when targets and distractors are coplanar with or rest on a common receding stereoscopic plane. We conclude that attention cannot be efficiently allocated to arbitrary depths and extents in space but is linked to and spreads automatically across perceived surfaces.

Aplicação de gelatina obtida de subproduto animal como substituto parcial de gordura em spread de chocolate

O objetivo do presente estudo foi verificação da viabilidade da aplicação de gelatina de pés de frango em spread de chocolate como substituto parcial de gordura. Inicialmente apresentou-se uma revisão de literatura sobre os principais aspectos que envolvem a pesquisa. Após relatou-se a metodologia de extração e caracterização físico-química da gelatina obtida de pés de frango por meio de análises de composição centesimal, de cor, força de gel e análise de perfil de textura (TPA). Posteriormente abordou-se os efeitos da aplicação de gelatina como substituto de gordura nas propriedades físico-químicas e reológicas de spread de chocolate. Por último investigou-se a influência da concentração de gelatina e substituição de gordura na espalhabilidade, estabilidade (shelf life), custos e propriedades sensoriais dos spreads de chocolate. Para tanto, foi utilizado planejamento experimental Central Composto Rotacional e metodologia de superfície de resposta. Os resultados da extração de gelatina de subproduto de frango indicaram que as peles e tendões dos pés de frango possuem rendimento (7,83 %) e conteúdo mineral (1,92 %), apresentando alto teor proteico (84,96 %) próximo das gelatinas comerciais. Em concentração de 6,67 % a gelatina demonstrou elevada força de gel (294,78 g), comportando-se na análise de perfil de textura como um sólido. Os dados relacionados às formulações de spread de chocolate demonstraram que tanto o nível de substituição de gordura quanto a concentração de gelatina exerceram efeitos significativos (p<0,05) sobre a cor, volume, densidade e comportamento reológico dos produtos, exceto a atividade de água que foi influenciada apenas pelo primeiro fator. Sob a perspectiva reológica apenas a amostra com maior nível de substituição de gordura foi classificada como pseudoplástica. A gelatina contribuiu no aumento do teor proteico das formulações. A consistência foi significativamente (p<0,05) influenciada pelas propriedades da fase de gelatina, apresentando ampla faixa de plasticidade nas diferentes temperaturas (10, 20 e 30 °C). A consistência dos spreads aumentou em todas as temperaturas durante os 90 dias de armazenamento. Observou-se por meio da análise sensorial que os fatores em estudo provocaram alterações nos atributos sensoriais do produto suficiente para a percepção dos provadores. A formulação com 75 % de substituição de gordura seguida pelas formulações com 50 % e 0,8 % de concentração de gelatina apresentaram a maior aceitabilidade. Com o máximo de substituição de gordura chegou-se a 53 % de redução de custos. Contudo, os resultados obtidos sugerem que a aplicação de gelatina de pés de frango pode ser vantajosa, já que contribuiu com a formulação de spreads de chocolate menos calóricos e com propriedades físico-químicas e sensoriais adequadas para uma possível comercialização.

Difusión de contenido obsceno dentro del Horario de Protección al Menor en el Perú: Análisis del reality show Esto es Guerra

En el presente artículo se analiza el contenido que difunde Esto es Guerra, el reality show peruano con alto índice de preferencia en la audiencia infantil durante el 2014, acusado de transmitir escenas con contenido sexual. El objetivo de esta investigación es determinar si existen rastros de material obsceno en este bloque televisivo y si este transgrede el Horario de Protección al Menor, reconocido en el marco legal peruano. Su justificación se enmarca en la escasez de estudios que se han realizado sobre realities en el Perú, los constantes pedidos de la sociedad para que este programa deje de transmitirse y las sanciones que ha recibido de parte de organismos estatales. La metodología empleada se basa en un análisis de contenido de la séptima temporada de Esto es Guerra, en el que se tendrán en cuenta los mensajes que transmiten los conductores y participantes a través de su comportamiento. La investigación determinó que el reality show de competencia presenta segmentos que podrían ser considerados como obscenos, aunque su duración es muy limitada y no representativa en relación a todo el programa.

[Excerpt from the poem "Winter"], undated

One leaf containing a handwritten copy of a section of the poem "Winter" by Scottish poet James Thomson (1700-1748). The excerpt begins "'Tis done! dread Winter spreads his latest Glooms," and ends, "And one unbounded Spring encircle all."