Macroeconomic shocks and the business cycle: evidence from a structural factor model

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluctuations; supply prevails for GDP, while demand prevails for employment and inflation. (ii) Policy matters, Both monetary and fiscal policy shocks have sizeable effects on output and prices, with little evidence of crowding out; both monetary and fiscal authorities implement important systematic countercyclical policies reacting to demand shocks. (iii) Negative demand shocks have a large long-run positive effect on productivity, consistently with the Schumpeterian "cleansing" view of recessions.

No news in business cycles

This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of 'news' shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explaining the business cycle; (iii) their effects are in line with what predicted by standard neoclassical theory; (iv) the bulk of business cycle fluctuations are explained by shocks unrelated to technology.

Artificial Snow Optimization in Winter Sport Destinations Using a Multi-agent Simulation

This paper presents the Juste-Neige system for predicting the snow height on the ski runs of a resort using a multi-agent simulation software. Its aim is to facilitate snow cover management in order to i) reduce the production cost of artificial snow and to improve the profit margin for the companies managing the ski resorts; and ii) to reduce the water and energy consumption, and thus to reduce the environmental impact, by producing only the snow needed for a good skiing experience. The software provides maps with the predicted snow heights for up to 13 days. On these maps, the areas most exposed to snow erosion are highlighted. The software proceeds in three steps: i) interpolation of snow height measurements with a neural network; ii) local meteorological forecasts for every ski resort; iii) simulation of the impact caused by skiers using a multi-agent system. The software has been evaluated in the Swiss ski resort of Verbier and provides useful predictions.

Health impact of sport and exercise in emerging adult men: a prospective study.

PURPOSE: Health benefits of sport and exercise are well documented in children, adolescents and adults, but little is known about emerging adulthood-a period of life characterized by significant demographic and developmental changes. The present study aimed to assess the health impact of changes in sport and exercise levels during that specific period of life. METHODS: The analysis used baseline and 15-month follow-up data (N = 4,846) from the cohort study on substance use risk factors. Associations between baseline exercise levels or changes in exercise levels and health indicators (i.e., health-related quality of life, depression, body mass index, alcohol dependence, nicotine dependence and cannabis use disorder) were measured using chi-squared tests and ANOVA. Direction of effects was tested using cross-lagged analysis. RESULTS: At baseline, all health indicator scores were observed to be better for regular exercisers than for other exercise levels. At follow-up, participants who had maintained regular exercise over time had better scores than those who had remained irregular exercisers or had discontinued, but their scores for health-related quality of life and depression were close to those of participants who had adopted regular exercise after the baseline questionnaire. Cross-lagged analysis indicated that regular exercise at baseline was a significant predictor of health-related quality of life and substance use dependence at follow-up, but was itself predicted only by health-related quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: From a health promotion perspective, this study emphasizes how important it is for emerging adult men to maintain, or adopt, regular sport and exercise.

Turnaround across diverse global supply chains using shared metrics and change methodology: The Case of Amer Sports Corporation

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to document the outcome of a global three-year long supply chain improvement initiative at a multi-national producer of branded sporting goods that is transforming from a holding structure to an integrated company. The case company is comprised of seven internationally well-known sport brands, which form a diverse set of independent sub-cases, on which the same supply chain metrics and change project approach was applied to improve supply chain performance. Design/methodology/approach - By using in-depth case study and statistical analysis the paper analyzes across the brands how supply chain complexity (SKU count), supply chain type (make or buy) and seasonality affect completeness and punctuality of deliveries, and inventory as the change project progresses. Findings - Results show that reduction in supply chain complexity improves delivery performance, but has no impact on inventory. Supply chain type has no impact on service level, but brands with in-house production are better in improving inventory than those with outsourced production. Non-seasonal business units improve service faster than seasonal ones, yet there is no impact on inventory. Research limitations/implications - The longitudinal data used for the analysis is biased with the general business trend, yet the rich data from different cases and three-years of data collection enables generalizations to a certain level. Practical implications - The in-depth case study serves as an example for other companies on how to initiate a supply chain improvement project across business units with tangible results. Originality/value - The seven sub-cases with their different characteristics on which the same improvement initiative was applied sets a unique ground for longitudinal analysis to study supply chain complexity, type and seasonality.

Scientific mindfulness: A foundation for future themes in international business.

We conceptualize new ways to qualify what themes should dominate the future international business and management (IB/IM) research agenda by examining three questions: Whom should we ask? What should we ask, and which selection criteria should we apply? What are the contextual forces? Our main findings are the following: (1) wider perspectives from academia and practice would benefit both rigor and relevance; (2) four key forces are climate change, globalization, inequality, and sustainability; and (3) we propose scientific mindfulness as the way forward for generating themes in IB/IM research. Scientific mindfulness is a holistic, cross-disciplinary, and contextual approach, whereby researchers need to make sense of multiple perspectives with the betterment of society as the ultimate criterion.

La prévention est un sport de combat

Fred Paccaud, professeur d'épidémiologie et de santé publique (Lausanne), réagit à la campagne de dénigrement menée en avril 2008 contre le directeur de l'Office fédéral de la santé publique et les campagnes de prévention. Selon lui, "le vrai enjeu de cette campagne est de contrecarrer la mise sur pied d'une loi fédérale sur la prévention, qui devrait être mise en consultation en juin 2008".

Productivity and human capital: a business-level analysis

This paper aims to analyse the impact of human capital on business productivity, focusing the analysis on the possible effect of the complementarity that exists between human capital and new production technologies, particularly advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs) for the specific case of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Catalonia. Additionally, following the theory of skill-biased technological change, the paper analyses whether technological change produces bias exclusively in the skills required for managers, or whether the bias extends to the skills required of production staff. With this objective, we have compared the possible existence of complementarity between AMTs and the level of human capital for different occupational groups. The results confirm the complementary relationship between human capital and new production technologies. The results by occupational group confirm that to maximise the productivity of new technologies, skilled staff are needed both in management and production, with managers and professionals as well as skilled operatives playing a vital role. Keywords: human capital, process technologies, complementarity, business productivity. (JEL D24, J24, O30).

Organizational form and business performance

This project deals with the generation of profitability and the distribution of its benefits. Inspired by Davis (1947, 1955), we define profitability as the ratio of revenue to cost. Profitability is not as popular a measure of business financial performance as profit, the difference between revenue and cost. Regardless of its popularity, however, profitability is surely a useful financial performance measure. Our primary objective in this project is to identify the factors that generate change in profitability. One set of factors, which we refer to as sources, consists of changes in quantities and prices of outputs and inputs. Individual quantity changes aggregate to the overall impact of quantity change on profitability change, which we call productivity change. Individual price changes aggregate to the overall impact of price change on profitability change, which we call price recovery change. In this framework profitability change consists exclusively of productivity change and price recovery change. A second set of factors, which we refer to as drivers, consists of phenomena such as technical change, change in the efficiency of resource allocation, and the impact of economies of scale. The ability of management to harness these factors drives productivity change, which is one component of profitability change. Thus the term sources refers to quantities and prices of individual outputs and inputs, whose changes influence productivity change or price recovery change, either of which influences profitability change. The term drivers refers to phenomena related to technology and management that influence productivity change (but not price recovery change), and hence profitability change.