Analysis and Prediction of Transient Opacity Spikes Using Dimensional Modeling

Dimensional modeling, GT-Power in particular, has been used for two related purposes-to quantify and understand the inaccuracies of transient engine flow estimates that cause transient smoke spikes and to improve empirical models of opacity or particulate matter used for engine calibration. It has been proposed by dimensional modeling that exhaust gas recirculation flow rate was significantly underestimated and volumetric efficiency was overestimated by the electronic control module during the turbocharger lag period of an electronically controlled heavy duty diesel engine. Factoring in cylinder-to-cylinder variation, it has been shown that the electronic control module estimated fuel-Oxygen ratio was lower than actual by up to 35% during the turbocharger lag period but within 2% of actual elsewhere, thus hindering fuel-Oxygen ratio limit-based smoke control. The dimensional modeling of transient flow was enabled with a new method of simulating transient data in which the manifold pressures and exhaust gas recirculation system flow resistance, characterized as a function of exhaust gas recirculation valve position at each measured transient data point, were replicated by quasi-static or transient simulation to predict engine flows. Dimensional modeling was also used to transform the engine operating parameter model input space to a more fundamental lower dimensional space so that a nearest neighbor approach could be used to predict smoke emissions. This new approach, intended for engine calibration and control modeling, was termed the "nonparametric reduced dimensionality" approach. It was used to predict federal test procedure cumulative particulate matter within 7% of measured value, based solely on steady-state training data. Very little correlation between the model inputs in the transformed space was observed as compared to the engine operating parameter space. This more uniform, smaller, shrunken model input space might explain how the nonparametric reduced dimensionality approach model could successfully predict federal test procedure emissions when roughly 40% of all transient points were classified as outliers as per the steady-state training data.

Advantages and Applications of Transforming Empirical Model Input Space with Dimensional Models

Model-based calibration of steady-state engine operation is commonly performed with highly parameterized empirical models that are accurate but not very robust, particularly when predicting highly nonlinear responses such as diesel smoke emissions. To address this problem, and to boost the accuracy of more robust non-parametric methods to the same level, GT-Power was used to transform the empirical model input space into multiple input spaces that simplified the input-output relationship and improved the accuracy and robustness of smoke predictions made by three commonly used empirical modeling methods: Multivariate Regression, Neural Networks and the k-Nearest Neighbor method. The availability of multiple input spaces allowed the development of two committee techniques: a 'Simple Committee' technique that used averaged predictions from a set of 10 pre-selected input spaces chosen by the training data and the "Minimum Variance Committee" technique where the input spaces for each prediction were chosen on the basis of disagreement between the three modeling methods. This latter technique equalized the performance of the three modeling methods. The successively increasing improvements resulting from the use of a single best transformed input space (Best Combination Technique), Simple Committee Technique and Minimum Variance Committee Technique were verified with hypothesis testing. The transformed input spaces were also shown to improve outlier detection and to improve k-Nearest Neighbor performance when predicting dynamic emissions with steady-state training data. An unexpected finding was that the benefits of input space transformation were unaffected by changes in the hardware or the calibration of the underlying GT-Power model.

Spatio-temporal Associations Between GOES Aerosol Optical Depth Retrievals and Ground-Level PM2.5

We assess the strength of association between aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from the GOES Aerosol/Smoke Product (GASP) and ground-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) to assess AOD as a proxy for PM2.5 in the United States. GASP AOD is retrieved from a geostationary platform and therefore provides dense temporal coverage with half-hourly observations every day, in contrast to once per day snapshots from polar-orbiting satellites. However, GASP AOD is based on a less-sophisticated instrument and retrieval algorithm. We find that correlations between GASP AOD and PM2.5 over time at fixed locations are reasonably high, except in the winter and in the western U.S. Correlations over space at fixed times are lower. Simple averaging over time actually reduces correlations over space dramatically, but statistical calibration allows averaging over time that produces strong correlations. These results and the data density of GASP AOD highlight its potential to help improve exposure estimates for epidemiological analyses. On average 40% of days in a month have a GASP AOD retrieval compared to 14% for MODIS and 4% for MISR. Furthermore, GASP AOD has been retrieved since November 1994, providing the possibility of a long-term record that pre-dates the availability of most PM2.5 monitoring data and other satellite instruments.

Prospectively assessed incidence, severity, and determinants of respiratory symptoms in the first year of life

Respiratory symptoms are common in infancy. Nevertheless, few prospective birth cohort studies have studied the epidemiology of respiratory symptoms in normal infants. The aim of this study was to prospectively obtain reliable data on incidence, severity, and determinants of common respiratory symptoms (including cough and wheeze) in normal infants and to determine factors associated with these symptoms. In a prospective population-based birth cohort, we assessed respiratory symptoms during the first year of life by weekly phone calls to the mothers. Poisson regression was used to examine the association between symptoms and various risk factors. In the first year of life, respiratory symptoms occurred in 181/195 infants (93%), more severe symptoms in 89 (46%). The average infant had respiratory symptoms for 4 weeks and 90% had symptoms for less than 12 weeks (range 0 to 23). Male sex, higher birth weight, maternal asthma, having older siblings and nursery care were associated with more, maternal hay fever with fewer respiratory symptoms. The association with prenatal maternal smoking decreased with time since birth. This study provides reliable data on the frequency of cough and wheeze during the first year of life in healthy infants; this may help in the interpretation of published hospital and community-based studies. The apparently reduced risk in children of mothers with hayfever but no asthma, and the decreasing effect of prenatal smoke exposure over time illustrate the complexity of respiratory pathology in the first year of life.

Definition, assessment and treatment of wheezing disorders in preschool children: an evidence-based approach

There is poor agreement on definitions of different phenotypes of preschool wheezing disorders. The present Task Force proposes to use the terms episodic (viral) wheeze to describe children who wheeze intermittently and are well between episodes, and multiple-trigger wheeze for children who wheeze both during and outside discrete episodes. Investigations are only needed when in doubt about the diagnosis. Based on the limited evidence available, inhaled short-acting beta(2)-agonists by metered-dose inhaler/spacer combination are recommended for symptomatic relief. Educating parents regarding causative factors and treatment is useful. Exposure to tobacco smoke should be avoided; allergen avoidance may be considered when sensitisation has been established. Maintenance treatment with inhaled corticosteroids is recommended for multiple-trigger wheeze; benefits are often small. Montelukast is recommended for the treatment of episodic (viral) wheeze and can be started when symptoms of a viral cold develop. Given the large overlap in phenotypes, and the fact that patients can move from one phenotype to another, inhaled corticosteroids and montelukast may be considered on a trial basis in almost any preschool child with recurrent wheeze, but should be discontinued if there is no clear clinical benefit. Large well-designed randomised controlled trials with clear descriptions of patients are needed to improve the present recommendations on the treatment of these common syndromes.

Development of a technique for achieving an optimum BSFC for LAF engine

The reserves of gasoline and diesel fuels are ever decreasing, which plays an important role in the technological development of automobiles. Numerous countries, especially the United States, wish to slowly decrease their fuel dependence on other countries by producing in house renewable fuels like biodiesels or ethanol. Therefore, the new automobile engines have to successfully run on a variety of fuels without significant changes to their designs. The current study focuses on assessing the potential of ethanol fuels to improve the performance of 'flex-fuel SI engines,' which literally means 'engines that are flexible in their fuel requirement.' Another important area within spark ignition (SI) engine research is the implementation of new technologies like Variable Valve Timing (VVT) or Variable Compression Ratio (VCR) to improve engine performance. These technologies add more complexity to the original system by adding extra degrees of freedom. Therefore, the potential of these technologies has to be evaluated before they are installed in any SI engine. The current study focuses on evaluating the advantages and drawbacks of these technologies, primarily from an engine brake efficiency perspective. The results show a significant improvement in engine efficiency with the use of VVT and VCR together. Spark ignition engines always operate at a lower compression ratio as compared to compression ignition (CI) engines primarily due to knock constraints. Therefore, even if the use of a higher compression ratio would result in a significant improvement in SI engine efficiency, the engine may still operate at a lower compression ratio due to knock limitations. Ethanol fuels extend the knock limit making the use of higher compression ratios possible. Hence, the current study focuses on using VVT, VCR, and ethanol-gasoline blends to improve overall engine performance. The results show that these technologies promise definite engine performance improvements provided both their positive and negative potentials have been evaluated prior to installation.

Comparisons between OMI SO2 data and ground-based SO2 measurements at Turrialba volcano

Turrialba is one of the largest and most active stratovolcanoes in the Central Cordillera of Costa Rica and an excellent target for validation of satellite data using ground based measurements due to its high elevation, relative ease of access, and persistent elevated SO2 degassing. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard the Aura satellite makes daily global observations of atmospheric trace gases and it is used in this investigation to obtain volcanic SO2 retrievals in the Turrialba volcanic plume. We present and evaluate the relative accuracy of two OMI SO2 data analysis procedures, the automatic Band Residual Index (BRI) technique and the manual Normalized Cloud-mass (NCM) method. We find a linear correlation and good quantitative agreement between SO2 burdens derived from the BRI and NCM techniques, with an improved correlation when wet season data are excluded. We also present the first comparisons between volcanic SO2 emission rates obtained from ground-based mini-DOAS measurements at Turrialba and three new OMI SO2 data analysis techniques: the MODIS smoke estimation, OMI SO2 lifetime, and OMI SO2 transect techniques. A robust validation of OMI SO2 retrievals was made, with both qualitative and quantitative agreements under specific atmospheric conditions, proving the utility of satellite measurements for estimating accurate SO2 emission rates and monitoring passively degassing volcanoes.

Geology of Smoke Hollow Area 8 Miles Southeast of Deerlodge, Powell County, Montana

This investigation was undertaken primarily as a problem in geologic mapping. The stratigraphy was studied as to the character, age, and sequence of the geologic formations that are exposed. The conclusions were based principally on the field relationships and lithology because no fossils were found.

Predictors for hospitalization and outpatient visits in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a high resource consumption, with considerable costs for the healthcare system. In a system with sparse resources, treatment is influenced not only by clinical judgement but also by resource consumption. We aimed to determine the resource consumption of IBD patients and to identify its significant predictors. MATERIALS AND METHODS Data from the prospective Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analysed for the resource consumption endpoints hospitalization and outpatient consultations at enrolment [1187 patients; 41.1% ulcerative colitis (UC), 58.9% Crohn's disease (CD)] and at 1-year follow-up (794 patients). Predictors of interest were chosen through an expert panel and a review of the relevant literature. Logistic regressions were used for binary endpoints, and negative binomial regressions and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used for count data. RESULTS For CD, fistula, use of biologics and disease activity were significant predictors for hospitalization days (all P-values <0.001); age, sex, steroid therapy and biologics were significant predictors for the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0368, 0.023, 0.0002, 0.0003, respectively). For UC, biologics, C-reactive protein, smoke quitters, age and sex were significantly predictive for hospitalization days (P=0.0167, 0.0003, 0.0003, 0.0076 and 0.0175 respectively); disease activity and immunosuppressive therapy predicted the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0009 and 0.0017, respectively). The results of multivariate regressions are shown in detail. CONCLUSION Several highly significant clinical predictors for resource consumption in IBD were identified that might be considered in medical decision-making. In terms of resource consumption and its predictors, CD and UC show a different behaviour.

Xenobiotic Metabolism Genes and Clubfoot

Idiopathic or isolated clubfoot is a common orthopedic birth defect that affects approximately 135,000 children worldwide. It is characterized by equinus, varus and adductus deformities of the ankle and foot. Correction of clubfoot involves months of serial manipulations, castings and bracing, with surgical correction needed in forty percent of cases. Multifactorial etiology has been suggested in numerous studies with both environmental and genetic factors playing an etiologic role. Maternal smoking during pregnancy is the only common environmental factor that has consistently been shown to increase the risk for clubfoot. Moreover, a positive family history of clubfoot and maternal smoking increases the risk of clubfoot twenty fold. These findings suggest that genetic variation in smoking metabolism genes may increase susceptibility to clubfoot. Based on this reasoning, we interrogated eight candidate genes, chosen based on their involvement in phase 1 and 2 cigarette smoke metabolism. Twenty-two SNPs and two null alleles in eight genes (CYP1A1, CYP1A2, CYP1B1, CYP2A6, EPHX1, NAT2, GSTM1 and GSTT1) were genotyped in a dataset composed of nonHispanic white and Hispanic multiplex and simplex families. Only one SNP in CYP1A1, rs1048943, had significantly altered transmission in the aggregate and multiplex NHW datasets (p=0.003 and p=0.009). Perturbation of CYP1A1 by rs1048943 polymorphism causes an increase in the amount of harmful, adduct forming metabolic intermediates. A significant gene interaction between EPHX1 and NAT2 was also found (p=0.007). This interaction may affect the metabolism of harmful metabolic intermediates. Additionally, marginal interactions were found for other xenobiotic genes and these interactions may play a contributory role in clubfoot. Importantly, for CYP1A2, significant maternal (p=0.03; RR=1.24; 95% CI: 1.04-1.44) and fetal (p=0.01; RR=1.33; 95% CI: 1.13-1.54) genotypic effects were identified suggesting that both maternal and fetal genotypes impact normal limb development. No association was found for maternal smoking status and tobacco metabolism genes. Together, these results suggest that xenobiotic metabolism genes may play a contributory role in the etiology of clubfoot regardless of maternal smoking status and may impact foot development through perturbation of tobacco metabolic pathways.

"Too Cool to Smoke": Using Puppets to Make Learning Fun

Introduction: According to the American Cancer Society, each day, more than 4,000 teens try cigarettes for the first time, and another 2,000 become daily smokers. One-half of these teens eventually will die from a smoking-related disease. [See PDF for complete abstract]

Does cigarette smoking modify the association between change in body mass index during young adulthood and risk of coronary mortality during middle-age in men? Twenty-five year follow-up results from the Chicago Western Electric Study

Many persons in the U.S. gain weight during young adulthood, and the prevalence of obesity has been increasing among young adults. Although obesity and physical inactivity are generally recognized as risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD), the magnitude of their effect on risk may have been seriously underestimated due to failure to adequately handle the problem of cigarette smoking. Since cigarette smoking causes weight loss, physically inactive cigarette smokers may remain relatively lean because they smoke cigarettes. We hypothesize cigarette smoking modifies the association between weight gain during young adulthood and risk of coronary heart disease during middle age, and that the true effect of weight gain during young adulthood on risk of CHD can be assessed only in persons who have not smoked cigarettes. Specifically, we hypothesize that weight gain during young adulthood is positively associated with risk of CHD during middle-age in nonsmokers but that the association is much smaller or absent entirely among cigarette smokers. The purpose of this study was to test this hypothesis. The population for analysis was comprised of 1,934 middle-aged, employed men whose average age at the baseline examination was 48.7 years. Information collected at the baseline examinations in 1958 and 1959 included recalled weight at age 20, present weight, height, smoking status, and other CHD risk factors. To decrease the effect of intraindividual variation, the mean values of the 1958 and 1959 baseline examinations were used in analyses. Change in body mass index ($\Delta$BMI) during young adulthood was the primary exposure variable and was measured as BMI at baseline (kg/m$\sp2)$ minus BMI at age 20 (kg/m$\sp2).$ Proportional hazards regression analysis was used to generate relative risks of CHD mortality by category of $\Delta$BMI and cigarette smoking status after adjustment for age, family history of CVD, major organ system disease, BMI at age 20, and number of cigarettes smoked per day. Adjustment was not performed for systolic blood pressure or total serum cholesterol as these were regarded as intervening variables. Vital status was known for all men on the 25th anniversary of their baseline examinations. 705 deaths (including 319 CHD deaths) occurred over 40,136 person-years of experience. $\Delta$BMI was positively associated with risk of CHD mortality in never-smokers, but not in ever-smokers (p for interaction = 0.067). For never-smokers with $\Delta$BMI of stable, low gain, moderate gain, and high gain, adjusted relative risks were 1.00, 1.62, 1.61, and 2.78, respectively (p for trend = 0.010). For ever-smokers, with $\Delta$BMI of stable, low gain, moderate gain, and high gain, adjusted relative risks were 1.00, 0.74, 1.07, and 1.06, respectively (p for trend = 0.422). These results support the research hypothesis that cigarette smoking modifies the association between weight gain and CHD mortality. Current estimates of the magnitude of effect of obesity and physical inactivity on risk of coronary mortality may have been seriously underestimated due to inadequate handling of cigarette smoking. ^

A study of the impact of cigarette advertising on adolescent susceptibility to smoking among 5th-, 8th-, and 12th-grade students in Hempstead and Hitchcock Independent School Districts

This study assessed the impact of cigarette advertising on adolescent susceptibility to smoking in the Hempstead and Hitchcock Independent School Districts. A convenience sample of 217 youths, 10-19 years of age was recruited in the study. Students completed both a paper-and-pencil and a computer-aided questionnaire in April 1996. Adolescents were defined as susceptible to smoking if they could not definitely rule out the possibility of future smoking. For the analysis, an index was devised: a 5-point index of an individual's receptivity to cigarette advertising. The index is determined by the number of positive responses to five survey items (recognizing cigarette brand logos, recognizing cigarette advertisement's pictures, recognizing cigarette brand slogans, evaluating adolescent attitudes toward cigarette advertising, and the degree to which adolescents were exposed to cigarette advertisements). Using logistic regression, we assessed the independent importance of the index in predicting susceptibility to smoking and ever smoking after adjusting for sociodemographic variables, perceived school performance and family composition. Of students surveyed, 54.4% of students appeared to have started the smoking uptake process as measured by susceptibility to smoking. Camel was recognized by the majority of students (88%), followed by Marlboro (41.5%) and Newport (40.1%). The pattern for recognition of the cigarette advertisements was the same as the pattern of market for cigarette. Advertisement featuring the cartoon character Joe Camel was significantly more appealing to adolescents than were advertisements with human models, with animal models, and with text only (p $<$ 0.001). Text only advertisement was significantly less appealing than other types of advertisements. The cigarette advertisement with White models (Marlboro) had significantly higher appeal to White students than to African-American students (p $<$ 0.001). The cigarette advertisement featuring African-American models (Virginia Slims) was significantly more appealing to African-American students than other ethnic groups (p $<$ 0.001). Receptivity to cigarette advertising was to be an important concurrent predictor of past smoking experience and intention to smoke in the future. Adolescents who scored in the fourth quartile of the Index of Receptivity to Cigarette Advertising were 7.54 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.92-29.56) times as likely to be susceptible to smoking, and were 4.56 (95% CI = 1.55-13.38) times as likely to have tried smoking, as those who scored in the first quartile of the Index. The findings confirmed the hypothesis that cigarette advertising may be a strong current influence in encouraging adolescents to initiate the smoking uptake process than sociodemographic variables, perceived school performance and family composition. ^

EMPLOYMENT AND EXPOSURES IN THE PETROLEUM REFINING AND PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRIES AND THE RISK OF LUNG CANCER (EPIDEMIOLOGY, ASSESSMENT)

This dissertation addresses the risk of lung cancer associated with occupational exposures in the petroleum refining and petrochemical industries. Earlier epidemiologic studies of this association did not adjust for cigarette smoking or have specific exposure classifications. The Texas EXposure Assessment System (TEXAS) was developed with data from a population-based, case-comparison study conducted in five southeast Texas counties between 1976 and 1980. The Texas Exposure Assessment System uses job and process categories developed by the American Petroleum Institute, as well as time-oriented variables to identify high risk groups.^ An industry-wide, increased risk for lung cancer was associated with jobs having low-level hydrocarbon exposure that also include other occupational inhalation exposures (OR = 2.0--adjusted for smoking and latency effects). The prohibition of cigarette smoking for jobs with high-level hydrocarbon exposure might explain part of the increased risk for jobs with low-level hydrocarbon exposures. Asbestos exposure comprises a large part of the risk associated with jobs having other inhalation exposures besides hydrocarbons. Workers in petroleum refineries were not shown to have an increased, occupational risk for lung cancer. The increased risk for lung cancer among petrochemical workers (OR = 3.1--smoking and latency adjusted) is associated with all jobs that involve other inhalation exposure characteristics (not only low-level hydrocarbon exposures). Findings for contract workers and workers exposed to specific chemicals were inconclusive although some hypotheses for future research were identified.^ The study results demonstrate that the predominant risk for lung cancer is due to cigarette smoking (OR = 9.8). Cigarette smoking accounts for 86.5% of the incident lung cancer cases within the study area. Workers in the petroleum industry smoke significantly less than persons employed in other industries (p << 0.001). Only 2.2% of the incident lung cancer cases may be attributed to petroleum industry jobs; lifestyle factors (e.g., nutrition) may be associated with the balance of the cases. The results from this study also suggest possible high risk time periods (OR = 3.9--smoking and occupation adjusted). Artifacts in time-oriented findings may result because of the latency interval for lung cancer, secular peaks in age-, sex-specific incidence rates, or periods of hazardous exposures in the petroleum industry. ^

Determination of Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinolic acid A (Δ9-THCA-A) in whole blood and plasma by LC–MS/MS and application in authentic samples from drivers suspected of driving under the influence of cannabis

Delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinolic acid A (THCA-A) is the biosynthetic precursor of delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) in cannabis plants, and has no psychotropic effects. THCA-A can be detected in blood and urine, and several metabolites have been identified. THCA-A was also shown to be incorporated in hair by side stream smoke to a minor extent, but incorporation via blood stream or sweat seems unlikely. The detection of THCA-A in biological fluids may serve as a marker for differentiating between the intake of prescribed THC medication – containing only pure THC – and cannabis products containing THC besides THC-acid A and other cannabinoids. However, the knowledge about its usefulness in forensic cases is very limited. The aim of the present work was the development of a reliable method for THCA-A determination in human blood or plasma using LC–MS/MS and application to cases of driving under the influence of drugs. Fifty eight (58) authentic whole blood and the respective plasma samples were collected from drivers suspected of driving under the influence of cannabis from the region of Bern (Switzerland). Samples were first tested for THC, 11-OH-THC and THC-COOH, and then additionally for THCA-A. For this purpose, the existing LC–MS/MS method was modified and validated, and found to be selective and linear over a range of 1.0 to 200 ng/mL (the correlation coefficients were above 0.9980 in all validation runs). Limit of detection (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ) were 0.3 ng/mL and 1.0 ng/mL respectively. Intra- and inter-assay accuracy were equal or better than 90% and intra- and inter-assay precision were equal or better than 11.1%. The mean extraction efficiencies were satisfactory being equal or higher than 85.4%. THCA-A was stable in whole blood samples after 3 freeze/thaw cycles and storage at 4 °C for 7 days. Re-injection (autosampler) stability was also satisfactory. THC was present in all blood samples with levels ranging from 0.7 to 51 ng/mL. THCA-A concentrations ranged from 1.0 to 496 ng/mL in blood samples and from 1.4 to 824 ng/mL in plasma samples. The plasma:blood partition coefficient had a mean value of 1.7 (±0.21, SD). No correlation was found between the degree of intoxication or impairment stated in the police protocols or reports of medical examinations and the detected THCA-A-concentration in blood.