Optimal adaptive sequential spatial sampling of soil using pair-copulas

A spatial sampling design that uses pair-copulas is presented that aims to reduce prediction uncertainty by selecting additional sampling locations based on both the spatial configuration of existing locations and the values of the observations at those locations. The novelty of the approach arises in the use of pair-copulas to estimate uncertainty at unsampled locations. Spatial pair-copulas are able to more accurately capture spatial dependence compared to other types of spatial copula models. Additionally, unlike traditional kriging variance, uncertainty estimates from the pair-copula account for influence from measurement values and not just the configuration of observations. This feature is beneficial, for example, for more accurate identification of soil contamination zones where high contamination measurements are located near measurements of varying contamination. The proposed design methodology is applied to a soil contamination example from the Swiss Jura region. A partial redesign of the original sampling configuration demonstrates the potential of the proposed methodology.

State Minimization of Incompletely Specified Sequential Machines

A simple procedure for the state minimization of an incompletely specified sequential machine whose number of internal states is not very large is presented. It introduces the concept of a compatibility graph from which the set of maximal compatibles of the machine can be very conveniently derived. Primary and secondary implication trees associated with each maximal compatible are then constructed. The minimal state machine covering the incompletely specified machine is then obtained from these implication trees.

Inflammation-driven bone formation in a mouse model of ankylosing spondylitis: Sequential not parallel processes

Background Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is an immune-mediated arthritis particularly targeting the spine and pelvis and is characterised by inflammation, osteoproliferation and frequently ankylosis. Current treatments that predominately target inflammatory pathways have disappointing efficacy in slowing disease progression. Thus, a better understanding of the causal association and pathological progression from inflammation to bone formation, particularly whether inflammation directly initiates osteoproliferation, is required. Methods The proteoglycan-induced spondylitis (PGISp) mouse model of AS was used to histopathologically map the progressive axial disease events, assess molecular changes during disease progression and define disease progression using unbiased clustering of semi-quantitative histology. PGISp mice were followed over a 24-week time course. Spinal disease was assessed using a novel semi-quantitative histological scoring system that independently evaluated the breadth of pathological features associated with PGISp axial disease, including inflammation, joint destruction and excessive tissue formation (osteoproliferation). Matrix components were identified using immunohistochemistry. Results Disease initiated with inflammation at the periphery of the intervertebral disc (IVD) adjacent to the longitudinal ligament, reminiscent of enthesitis, and was associated with upregulated tumor necrosis factor and metalloproteinases. After a lag phase, established inflammation was temporospatially associated with destruction of IVDs, cartilage and bone. At later time points, advanced disease was characterised by substantially reduced inflammation, excessive tissue formation and ectopic chondrocyte expansion. These distinct features differentiated affected mice into early, intermediate and advanced disease stages. Excessive tissue formation was observed in vertebral joints only if the IVD was destroyed as a consequence of the early inflammation. Ectopic excessive tissue was predominantly chondroidal with chondrocyte-like cells embedded within collagen type II- and X-rich matrix. This corresponded with upregulation of mRNA for cartilage markers Col2a1, sox9 and Comp. Osteophytes, though infrequent, were more prevalent in later disease. Conclusions The inflammation-driven IVD destruction was shown to be a prerequisite for axial disease progression to osteoproliferation in the PGISp mouse. Osteoproliferation led to vertebral body deformity and fusion but was never seen concurrent with persistent inflammation, suggesting a sequential process. The findings support that early intervention with anti-inflammatory therapies will be needed to limit destructive processes and consequently prevent progression of AS.

Use of norethisterone and estradiol in mini doses as a contraceptive in the male : Efficacy studies in the adult male bonnet monkey (Macaca radiata)

Administration of norethisterone (NET) or NET + estradiol benzoate using an Alzet minipump or as once-a-month intramuscular injection of their depot forms, NET-enanthate (NET-EN) and estradiol valerate (E-val), resulted in azoospermia in all monkeys (n = 13) within 60 to 150 days of treatment. Although addition of depot form of testosterone (T, 20 mg/month) to the regimen restored the behavioral response typical of a normal male, it did not reverse the azoospermic state. Serum T (heightened nocturnal) levels were significantly reduced (> 85%, p < 0.001) in all the treated groups. Evidence for blockade in spermatogenesis following treatment was obtained by DNA flow cytometry. Following withdrawal of treatment, the T level was restored to normalcy within 15 days but 120 days more were required for the animals to exhibit normal sperm counts. In conclusion, the efficacy of once-a-month injection of relatively low doses of NET-EN + E-Val to bring about azoospermia in monkeys, in a relatively short time, has been demonstrated. As the results are uniform and reproducible, it appears desirable that this steroid regimen be tested in man for its contraceptive efficacy.

The effects of eutrophication on alternative reproductive tactics in threespine sticklebacks

When organisms compete for mates and fertilisations, the process of sexual selection drives the evolution of traits that increase reproductive success. The traits targeted by selection, and the extent to which they change, are constrained by the local environment. Sexual selection due to female mate choice can be undermined by alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs), which refers to discontinuous variation in traits or behaviours used in reproduction. As human activities are rapidly changing our planet, this raises the question how ARTs will be affected. Fish show a bewildering diversity of ARTs, which make them good model organisms to answer these questions. One example of human-induced environmental change, which is affecting aquatic ecosystems around the world, is eutrophication, the over-enrichment of water bodies with nutrients. One of its effects is decreased underwater visibility due to increases in both turbidity and vegetation density. The aims of this thesis were to investigate the effects increased turbidity and vegetation density have on an ART in sticklebacks, a fish common to marine and fresh water bodies of the Northern hemisphere. I furthermore investigated how this affected sexual selection for male size, a trait commonly under selection. I used a combination of behavioural observations in microcosms, where I manipulated underwater visibility, with collection of genetic material to reconstruct parentage of broods, and thus identify sneak fertilisations. The results show that turbidity might have weak negative effects on the frequency of sneaking behaviour, although this behaviour was rather infrequent in these experiments, which complicates firm conclusions. In dense vegetation the number of sneak fertilisations decreased slightly, as fewer nesting males sneaked, while the number of non-nesting males sneaking remained constant. The paternity analyses revealed that a significantly smaller fraction of eggs was sneak fertilised under dense vegetation. Furthermore, amongst the nesting males that sneaked, the amount of eggs sneak fertilised correlated positively with courtship success. A reduction in sneaking by these males under dense vegetation equalised the distribution of fertilisation success, in turn contributing to a decrease in the opportunity for selection. Under dense vegetation significantly more males built nests, which has also been observed in previous field studies. In a separate experiment we addressed if such changes in the proportion of nesters and non-nesters, without changes in visibility, affected the incidence of sneak fertilisation. My results show this was not the case, likely because sneaking is an opportunistic tactic shown by both nesters and non-nesters. Non-nesters did sneak proportionately more when there were many of them, which could be due to changes in the cost-benefit ratio of sneaking. As nesters can only attack one intruder at a time, the costs and risks per sneaker will decrease as the number of sneakers increases. The defensive behaviours shown by the nesters before spawning shifted to a more aggressive form of nest defence. This could be because less aggressive behaviours lose their effectiveness when the number of intruders increases. It could also indicate that the risks associated with aggressive behaviours decrease when there are fewer fellow nesters, as other studies indicate nesters are competitive and aggressive individuals. Under turbid conditions I did not detect changes in the opportunity for selection, based on fertilisation success, nor was male size under significant selection under clear or turbid conditions. More thorough analyses under densely vegetated conditions across the nesting, courtship and fertilisation stages revealed a decrease in the opportunity for selection across all stages. A reduction in sneaking by nesters contributed to this. During the nesting stage, but not during later stages, body size was under significant directional selection under sparse, but not dense vegetation. This illustrates the importance of considering all selection stages to get a complete picture of how environmental changes affect sexual selection. Leaving out certain stages or subgroups can result in incomplete or misleading results.

A male-specific nuclease-resistant chromatin fraction in the mealybug Planococcus lilacinus

In mealybugs, chromatin condensation is related to both genomic imprinting and sex determination. The paternal chromosomal complement is condensed and genetically inactive in sons but not in daughters. During a study of chromatin organization in Planococcus lilacinus, digestion with micrococcal nuclease showed that 3% to 5% of the male genome is resistant to the enzyme. This Nuclease Resistant Chromatin (NRC) apparently has a nucleosomal organization. Southern hybridization of genomic DNA suggests that NRC sequences are present in both sexes and occur throughout the genome. Cloned NRC DNA is A+T-rich with stretches of adenines similar to those present in mouse alpha-satellite sequences. NRC DNA also contains sequence motifs that are typically associated with the nuclear matrix. Salt-fractionation experiments showed that NRC sequences are matrix associated. These observations are discussed in relation to the unusual cytological features of mealybug chromosomes, including the possible existence of multiple centres of inactivation.

Changes in testicular function following specific deprivation of LH in the adult male rabbit

Sexually mature male rabbits actively immunized against highly purified ovine LH (oLH) were used as a model system to study the effects of endogenous LH deprivation (and therefore testosterone) on spermatogenesis as well as pituitary FSH secretion. Immunization against oLH generated antibody titres capable of cross-reacting and neutralizing rabbit LH and this resulted in a significant reduction (P<0.01) in serum testosterone levels by 2-4 weeks of immunization. A significant increase in circulating FSH concentration (from a basal level of similar to 1 ng to 60-100 ng/ml; P<0.01) was observed within 4-6 weeks of immunization, perhaps a consequence of the negative feedback effect of the lack of testosterone. The effect of LH deprivation on spermatogenesis assessed by DNA flow cytometry and histological analyses of testicular biopsy tissue revealed that lack of testosterone primarily results in a rapid reduction and complete absence of round (1C) and elongated (HC) spermatids. The immediate effect of LH/testosterone deprivation thus appears to be at the step of meiotic transformation of primary spermatocytes (4C) to 1C. A significant reduction (>80%; P<0.01) in the 4C population and a relative accumulation (>90%; P<0.01) in spermatogonia (2C) was also observed, suggesting a need for testosterone during the transformation of 2C to 1C. In all but one of the rabbits, both qualitative and quantitative recovery in spermatogenesis occurred during the recovery phase, even at a time when only a marginal increase in serum testosterone (compared with the preimmunization) levels was observed as a result of a rapid decline in the cross-reactive antibody titres. These results clearly show that LH/testosterone deprivation in addition to primarily affecting the meiotic step also regulates the conversion of 2C to 4C during spermatogenesis.

Decentralized sequential change detection using physical layer fusion

We study the problem of decentralized sequential change detection with conditionally independent observations. The sensors form a star topology with a central node called fusion center as the hub. The sensors transmit a simple function of their observations in an analog fashion over a wireless Gaussian multiple access channel and operate under either a power constraint or an energy constraint. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed techniques have lower detection delays when compared with existing schemes. Moreover we demonstrate that the energy-constrained formulation enables better use of the total available energy than a power-constrained formulation.

Conditional Probability-Based Significance Tests for Sequential Patterns in Multineuronal Spike Trains

We consider the problem of detecting statistically significant sequential patterns in multineuronal spike trains. These patterns are characterized by ordered sequences of spikes from different neurons with specific delays between spikes. We have previously proposed a data-mining scheme to efficiently discover such patterns, which occur often enough in the data. Here we propose a method to determine the statistical significance of such repeating patterns. The novelty of our approach is that we use a compound null hypothesis that not only includes models of independent neurons but also models where neurons have weak dependencies. The strength of interaction among the neurons is represented in terms of certain pair-wise conditional probabilities. We specify our null hypothesis by putting an upper bound on all such conditional probabilities. We construct a probabilistic model that captures the counting process and use this to derive a test of significance for rejecting such a compound null hypothesis. The structure of our null hypothesis also allows us to rank-order different significant patterns. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach using spike trains generated with a simulator.

R&D in clean technology: A project choice model with learning

In this study, we investigate the qualitative and quantitative effects of an R&D subsidy for a clean technology and a Pigouvian tax on a dirty technology on environmental R&D when it is uncertain how long the research takes to complete. The model is formulated as an optimal stopping problem, in which the number of successes required to complete the R&D project is finite and learning about the probability of success is incorporated. We show that the optimal R&D subsidy with the consideration of learning is higher than that without it. We also find that an R&D subsidy performs better than a Pigouvian tax unless suppliers have sufficient incentives to continue cost-reduction efforts after the new technology success-fully replaces the old one. Moreover, by using a two-project model, we show that a uniform subsidy is better than a selective subsidy.