Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Model for ranking freshwater fish farms according to their risk of infection and illustration for viral haemorrhagic septicaemia

We developed a model to calculate a quantitative risk score for individual aquaculture sites. The score indicates the risk of the site being infected with a specific fish pathogen (viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV); infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus, Koi herpes virus), and is intended to be used for risk ranking sites to support surveillance for demonstration of zone or member state freedom from these pathogens. The inputs to the model include a range of quantitative and qualitative estimates of risk factors organised into five risk themes (1) Live fish and egg movements; (2) Exposure via water; (3) On-site processing; (4) Short-distance mechanical transmission; (5) Distance-independent mechanical transmission. The calculated risk score for an individual aquaculture site is a value between zero and one and is intended to indicate the risk of a site relative to the risk of other sites (thereby allowing ranking). The model was applied to evaluate 76 rainbow trout farms in 3 countries (42 from England, 32 from Italy and 2 from Switzerland) with the aim to establish their risk of being infected with VHSV. Risk scores for farms in England and Italy showed great variation, clearly enabling ranking. Scores ranged from 0.002 to 0.254 (mean score 0.080) in England and 0.011 to 0.778 (mean of 0.130) for Italy, reflecting the diversity of infection status of farms in these countries. Requirements for broader application of the model are discussed. Cost efficient farm data collection is important to realise the benefits from a risk-based approach.

A meta-analysis of trabecular bone score in fracture risk prediction and its relationship to FRAX

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a grey-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a BMD-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables and outcomes during follow up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% CI: 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR 1.32, 95%CI: 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95%CI: 1.65, 1.87 vs. 1.70, 95%CI: 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Implementation and Operational Research: Risk Charts to Guide Targeted HIV-1 Viral Load Monitoring of ART: Development and Validation in Patients From Resource-Limited Settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20%, or 40% of patients in 7 cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cutoffs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia, and the Asia-Pacific. RESULTS In total, 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African cohort, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian cohort, and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohort. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia, and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia, and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia-Pacific. CONCLUSIONS CD4-based risk charts with optimal cutoffs for targeted VL testing maybe useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Normal Thyroid Function and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: the Rotterdam Study

CONTEXT Hyperthyroidism is an established risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), but information concerning the association with variations within the normal range of thyroid function and subgroups at risk is lacking. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to investigate the association between normal thyroid function and AF prospectively and explore potential differential risk patterns. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS From the Rotterdam Study we included 9166 participants ≥ 45 y with TSH and/or free T4 (FT4) measurements and AF assessment (1997-2012 median followup, 6.8 y), with 399 prevalent and 403 incident AF cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Outcome measures were 3-fold: 1) hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of incident AF by Cox proportional-hazards models, 2) 10-year absolute risks taking competing risk of death into account, and 3) discrimination ability of adding FT4 to the CHARGE-AF simple model, an established prediction model for AF. RESULTS Higher FT4 levels were associated with higher risks of AF (HR 1.63, 95% confidence interval, 1.19-2.22), when comparing those in the highest quartile to those in lowest quartile. Absolute 10-year risks increased with higher FT4 in participants ≤ 65 y from 1-9% and from 6-12% in subjects ≥ 65 y. Discrimination of the prediction model improved when adding FT4 to the simple model (c-statistic, 0.722 vs 0.729; P = .039). TSH levels were not associated with AF. CONCLUSIONS There is an increased risk of AF with higher FT4 levels within the normal range, especially in younger subjects. Adding FT4 to the simple model slightly improved discrimination of risk prediction.

Improving the health and well-being of women at risk for neural tube defect recurrence

There is growing interest in providing women with internatal care, a package of healthcare and ancillary services that can improve their health during the period after the termination of one pregnancy but before the conception of the next pregnancy. Women who have had a pregnancy affected by a neural tube defect can especially benefit from internatal care because they are at increased risk for recurrence and improvements to their health during the inter-pregnancy period can prevent future negative birth outcomes. The dissertation provides three papers that inform the content of internatal care for women at risk for recurrence by examining descriptive epidemiology to develop an accurate risk profile of the population, assessing whether women at risk for recurrence would benefit from a psychosocial intervention, and determining how to improve health promotion efforts targeting folic acid use.^ Paper one identifies information relevant for developing risk profiles and conducting risk assessments. A number of investigations have found that the risk for neural tube defects differs between non-Hispanic Whites and Hispanics. To understand the risk difference, the descriptive epidemiology of spina bifida and anencephaly was examined for Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites based on data from the Texas Birth Defects Registry for the years 1999 through 2004. Crude and adjusted birth prevalence ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were calculated between descriptive epidemiologic characteristics and anencephaly and spina bifida for non-Hispanic Whites and for Hispanics. In both race/ethnic groups, anencephaly expressed an inverse relationship with maternal age and a positive linear relationship with parity. Both relationships were stronger in non-Hispanic Whites. Female infants had a higher risk for anencephaly in non-Hispanic Whites. Lower maternal education was associated with increased risk for spina bifida in Hispanics.^ Paper two assesses the need for a psychosocial intervention. For mothers who have children with spina bifida, the transition to motherhood can be stressful. This qualitative study explored the process of becoming a mother to a child with spina bifida focusing particularly on stress and coping in the immediate postnatal environment. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with six mothers who have children with spina bifida. Mothers were asked about their initial emotional and problem-based coping efforts, the quality and kind of support provided by health providers, and the characteristics of their meaning-based coping efforts; questions matched Transactional Model of Stress and Coping (TMSC) constructs. Analysis of the responses revealed a number of modifiable stress and coping transactions, the most salient being: health providers are in a position to address beliefs about self-causality and prevent mothers from experiencing the repercussions that stem from maintaining these beliefs. ^ Paper three identifies considerations when creating health promotion materials targeting folic acid use. A brochure was designed using concepts from the Precaution Adoption Process Model (PAPM). Three focus groups comprising 26 mothers of children with spina bifida evaluated the brochure. One focus group was conducted in Spanish-only, the other two focus groups were conducted in English and Spanish combined. Qualitative analysis of coded transcripts revealed that a brochure is a helpful adjunct. Questions about folic acid support the inclusion of an insert with basic information. There may be a need to develop different educational material for Hispanics so the importance of folic acid is provided in a situational context. Some participants blamed themselves for their pregnancy outcome which may affect their receptivity to messages in the brochure. The women's desire for photographs that affect their perception of threat and their identification with the second role model indicate they belong to PAPM Stage 2 and 3. Participants preferred colorful envelopes, high quality paper, intimidating photographs, simple words, conversational style sentences, and positive messages.^ These papers develop the content of risk assessment, psychosocial intervention, and health promotion components of internatal care as they apply to women at risk for recurrence. The findings provided evidence for considering parity and maternal age when assessing nutritional risk. The two dissimilarities between the two race/ethnic groups, infant sex and maternal education lent support to creating separate risk profiles. Interviews with mothers of children with spina bifida revealed the existence of unmet needs-suggesting that a psychosocial intervention provided as part of internatal care can strengthen and support women's well-being. Segmenting the audience according to race/ethnicity and PAPM stage can improve the relevance of print materials promoting folic acid use.^

The application of latent variable models to the assessment of determinants of HIV risk behavior

Studies on the relationship between psychosocial determinants and HIV risk behaviors have produced little evidence to support hypotheses based on theoretical relationships. One limitation inherent in many articles in the literature is the method of measurement of the determinants and the analytic approach selected. ^ To reduce the misclassification associated with unit scaling of measures specific to internalized homonegativity, I evaluated the psychometric properties of the Reactions to Homosexuality scale in a confirmatory factor analytic framework. In addition, I assessed the measurement invariance of the scale across racial/ethnic classifications in a sample of men who have sex with men. The resulting measure contained eight items loading on three first-order factors. Invariance assessment identified metric and partial strong invariance between racial/ethnic groups in the sample. ^ Application of the updated measure to a structural model allowed for the exploration of direct and indirect effects of internalized homonegativity on unprotected anal intercourse. Pathways identified in the model show that drug and alcohol use at last sexual encounter, the number of sexual partners in the previous three months and sexual compulsivity all contribute directly to risk behavior. Internalized homonegativity reduced the likelihood of exposure to drugs, alcohol or higher numbers of partners. For men who developed compulsive sexual behavior as a coping strategy for internalized homonegativity, there was an increase in the prevalence odds of risk behavior. ^ In the final stage of the analysis, I conducted a latent profile analysis of the items in the updated Reactions to Homosexuality scale. This analysis identified five distinct profiles, which suggested that the construct was not homogeneous in samples of men who have sex with men. Lack of prior consideration of these distinct manifestations of internalized homonegativity may have contributed to the analytic difficulty in identifying a relationship between the trait and high-risk sexual practices. ^

Residents' risk perception due to operations of a copper smelter located near residential communities in El Paso, Texas

A face to face survey addressing environmental risk perception was conducted in January through March 2010. The 35 question survey was administered to a random sample of 73 households in El Paso, Texas. The instrument, administered in two adjacent residential communities neighboring an inactive copper smelter solicited responses about manmade and naturally occurring health risks and sources of health information that might utilized by respondents. The objective of the study was to determine if intervention which occurred in one of the communities increased residents' perception of risk to themselves and their families. The study was undertaken subsequent to increased attention from news media and public debate surrounding the request to reopen the smelter's operations. Results of the study indicated that the perception of environmental related health concerns were not significantly correlated with residence in a community receiving outreach and intervention. Both communities identified sun exposure as their greatest perceived environmental risk followed by cigarette smoking. Though industrial by products and chemical pollution were high ranking concerns, respondents indicated they felt that the decision not to reopen the smelter reduced risk in these areas. Residents expressed confidence in information received from the local health district though most indicated they received very little information from that source indicating an opportunity for public health education in this community as a strategy to address future health concerns.^

A case-control study of the risk factors for eclampsia

Objective. To study the risk factors for eclampsia, a rare but significant complication of pregnancy.^ Target population. All deliveries at or after the 20th week of gestation that took place between January 1, 1977 and March 1992, and between January 1990 and April 1992 at two hospitals in Houston, Texas, respectively.^ Study population. Sixty-six confirmed cases of eclampsia, and 2 groups of randomly selected controls: Non-preeclamptic and preeclamptic deliveries matched to cases on hospital and month of delivery on a 1:4 ratio.^ Exclusions. Women with chronic hypertension, gestational epilepsy, a previous history of epilepsy, and convulsions attributed to encephalitis, meningitis, cerebral tumor, and intracerebral bleeding, and women without a definite diagnosis of preeclampsia/eclampsia.^ Results. Eclampsia developed in 0.52-0.93/1000 deliveries. Fifty-six percent of seizures occurred in the antepartum period, 2% as early as 20 weeks of gestation and 39% between 37 and 42 weeks. Twenty-nine percent and 15% occurred in the postpartum and late postpartum periods, respectively, 8% as late as one week postpartum. A different set of risk factors was involved in the development of eclampsia in non-preeclamptic women than in the progression from preeclampsia to eclampsia. Factors involved in the development of eclampsia included, in addition to twin pregnancy and family history of pregnancy-induced hypertension, fewer than 3 prenatal care visits, urinary tract infections, primigravidity, obesity, black ethnicity, diabetes mellitus, and age $\le$20 years. Risk factors involved in the progression from preeclampsia to eclampsia included fewer than 3 of prenatal care visits, and age $\le$20 years. Protective factors were magnesium sulfate administration prior to seizure, history of abortions and longer gestational age. Having less than 3 prenatal care visits and being less than or equal to 20 years of age were predictors of eclampsia, whether of its development or progression from preeclampsia. Once preeclampsia is diagnosed, primigravid, diabetic, black, or obese women and those with urinary tract infections did not appear to exhibit any increased risk for the progression to eclampsia. The administration of magnesium sulfate was especially protective, followed by a positive history of abortions, 3 or more prenatal care visits, and longer gestational age. The protective effect of MgSO$\sb4$ was only slightly diminished when cases were restricted to the 65% who had a diagnosis of preeclampsia. The progression from preeclampsia to eclampsia may be largely preventable through adequate prenatal care and presumably the administration of magnesium sulfate. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

Planning and implementation efficacy as a determinant of health risk communication outcomes: Case studies of the U.S. Public Health Service (PHS)

This study was conducted under the auspices of the Subcommittee on Risk Communication and Education of the Committee to Coordinate Environmental Health and Related Programs (CCEHRP) to determine how Public Health Service (PHS) agencies are communicating information about health risk, what factors contributed to effective communication efforts, and what specific principles, strategies, and practices best promote more effective health risk communication outcomes.^ Member agencies of the Subcommittee submitted examples of health risk communication activities or decisions they perceived to be effective and some examples of cases they thought had not been as effective as desired. Of the 10 case studies received, 7 were submitted as examples of effective health risk communication, and 3, as examples of less effective communication.^ Information contained in the 10 case studies describing the respective agencies' health risk communication strategies and practices was compared with EPA's Seven Cardinal Rules of Risk Communication, since similar rules were not found in any PHS agency. EPA's rules are: (1) Accept and involve the public as a legitimate partner. (2) Plan carefully and evaluate your efforts. (3) Listen to the public's specific concerns. (4) Be honest, frank, and open. (5) Coordinate and collaborate with other credible sources. (6) Meet the needs of the media. (7) Speak clearly and with compassion.^ On the basis of case studies analysis, the Subcommittee, in their attempts to design and implement effective health risk communication campaigns, identified a number of areas for improvement among the agencies. First, PHS agencies should consider developing a focus specific to health risk communication (i.e., office or specialty resource). Second, create a set of generally accepted practices and guidelines for effective implementation and evaluation of PHS health risk communication activities and products. Third, organize interagency initiatives aimed at increasing awareness and visibility of health risk communication issues and trends within and between PHS agencies.^ PHS agencies identified some specific implementation strategies the CCEHRP might consider pursuing to address the major recommendations. Implementation strategies common to PHS agencies emerged in the following five areas: (1) program development, (2) building partnerships, (3) developing training, (4) expanding information technologies, and (5) conducting research and evaluation. ^

Adult weight gain and risk of colon cancer in men

Previous research supports the hypothesis that a "rich" diet (i.e., high in fat and low in fiber) increases the risk of colon cancer. Previous research also supports the hypothesis that physical inactivity increases the risk of colon cancer, perhaps because physical inactivity decreases gut motility, thereby increasing tee time that carcinogens are in contact with the intestinal mucosa. Habitual physical inactivity, combined with rich diet, ordinarily results in chronic energy imbalance and gain in weight, except when energy balance is modified by disease or factors such as cigarette smoking. Cigarette smokers typically stay lean because of effects of smoking on the resting metabolic rate as well as on efficiency of caloric intake and storage. Therefore, if physical inactivity and rich diet do increase the risk of colon cancer, then weight gain during young adulthood should be positively associated with incidence of colon cancer during later life, especially in nonsmokers.^ This hypothesis was investigated in a cohort of 2,059 randomly selected middle-aged men who were employed at the Western Electric Company in Chicago and were free of clinically diagnosed cancer at initial examination in 1958. Body mass index (BMI) in middle age was calculated from measured height and weight at the initial examination. BMI at age 20 was estimated from weight at age 20 as recalled at the initial examination and height as measured at the initial examination. Change in BMI between age 20 and middle age was estimated by subtracting the BMI at 20 from the BMI in middle age. Forty-nine incident cases of colon cancer were detected during 25 years (43,326 person-years) at risk. When stratified by level of change in BMI from age 20 to middle age ($\le$1.9, 2.0-3.9, 4.0-5.9, $\ge$6.0 kg/m$\sp2$), age-adjusted relative hazards of colon cancer in never-smokers were 1.00, 1.22, 2.31, and 5.01, respectively (p for trend = 0.008); corresponding values in ever-smokers were 1.00, 0.95, 0.77, and 0.87, These associations did not change appreciably after further adjustment for BMI at age 20, subscapular-triceps skinfold ratio, cigarette smoking, consumption of alcohol, energy, fat, and calcium.^ We also investigated the hypothesis that the risk of colon cancer was higher in men who were lean at age 20 and became fat by middle age (lean-to-fat) than in men who were fat at age 20 and stayed fat in middle-age (fat-to-fat). "Lean" was defined as BMI $<$24 kg/m$\sp2$ at age 20 and as BMI $<$27.0 kg/m$\sp2$ in middle age. Among never-smokers, in comparison to men who were lean at age 20 and in middle age (lean-to-lean), the age-adjusted relative hazard of colon cancer was 1.43 in the fat-to-fat group (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37-5.52) and 3.36 in the lean-to-fat group (95% CI 1.21-9.37). This investigation provides new results on the magnitude of risk of colon cancer associated with weight gain during adulthood (from age 20 to middle age). This relation was obscured or underestimated in previous studies due to effect-modification by cigarette smoking. Finally, the result supports the idea that a life-style characterized by chronic energy imbalance during young adulthood increases risk of colon cancer. ^

RESPIRATORY COMPENSATION MECHANISMS IN THE UPPER AND LOWER RESPIRATORY TRACTS OF AN ANIMAL MODEL AFTER SUBCHRONIC INHALATION EXPOSURE TO FORMALDEHYDE: IMPLICATIONS FOR TOXICOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT (DEPOSITION, DOSE RECEIVED, RESPONSE)

The potential for significant human populations to experience long-term inhalation of formaldehyde and reports of symptomatology due to this exposure has led to a considerable interest in the toxicologic assessment of risk from subchronic formaldehyde exposures using animal models. Since formaldehyde inhalation depresses certain respiratory parameters in addition to its other forms of toxicity, there is a potential for the alteration of the actual dose received by the exposed individual (and the resulting toxicity) due to this respiratory effect. The respiratory responses to formaldehyde inhalation and the subsequent pattern of deposition were therefore investigated in animals that had received subchronic exposure to the compound, and the potential for changes in the formaldehyde dose received due to long-term inhalation evaluated. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were exposed to either 0, 0.5, 3, or 15 ppm formaldehyde for 6 hours/day, 5 days/week for up to 6 months. The patterns of respiratory response, deposition and the compensation mechanisms involved were then determined in a series of formaldehyde test challenges to both the upper and to the lower respiratory tracts in separate groups of subchronically exposed animals and age-specific controls (four concentration groups, two time points). In both the control and pre-exposed animals, there was a characteristic recovery of respiratory parameters initially depressed by formaldehyde inhalation to at or approaching pre-exposure levels within 10 minutes of the initiation of exposure. Also, formaldehyde deposition was found to remain very high in the upper and lower tracts after long-term exposure. Therefore, there was probably little subsequent effect on the dose received by the exposed individual that was attributable to the repeated exposures. There was a diminished initial minute volume response in test challenges of both the upper and lower tracts of animals that had received at least 16 weeks of exposure to 15 ppm, with compensatory increases in tidal volume in the upper tract and respiratory rate in the lower tract. However, this dose-related effect was probably not relevant to human risk estimation because this formaldehyde dose is in excess of that experienced by human populations. ^

Risk and protective factors associated with depression among racial and ethnic mothers of adolescents

The central paradigm linking disadvantaged social status and mental health has been the social stress model (Horwitz, 1999), the assumption being that individuals residing in lower social status groups are subjected to greater levels of stress not experienced by individuals from higher status groups. A further assumption is that such individuals have fewer resources to cope with stress, in turn leading to higher levels of psychological disorder, including depression (Pearlin, 1989). Despite these key assumptions, there is a dearth of literature comparing the social patterning of stress exposure (Hatch & Dohrenwend, 2007; Meyer, Schwartz, & Frost, 2008; Kessler, Mickelson, & Williams, 1999; Turner & Avison, 2003; Turner & Lloyd, 1999; Turner, Wheaton, & Lloyd, 1995), and the distribution and contribution of protective factors, posited to play a role in the low rates of depression found among African- and Latino-Americans (Alegria et al., 2007; Breslau, Aguilar-Gaxiola, Kendler, Su, Williams, & Kessler, 2006; Breslau, Borges, Hagar, Tancredi, Gilman, 2009; Gavin, Walton, Chae, Alegria, Jackson, & Takeuchi, 2010; Williams, & Neighbors, 2006). Thus, this study sought to describe both the distribution and contribution of risk and protective factors in relation to depression among a sample of African-, European-, and Latina-American mothers of adolescents, including testing a hypothesized mechanism through which social support, an important protective factor specific to women and depression, operates. ^ Despite the finding that the levels of depression were not statistically different across all three groups of women, surprising results were found in describing the distribution of both risk and protective factors, in that results reported among all women who were mothers when analyzed masked differences within each ethnic group when SES was assessed, a point made explicit by Williams (2002) regarding racial and ethnic variations in women's health. In the final analysis, while perceived social support was found to partially mediate the effect of social isolation on depression, among African-Americans, the direct effect of social isolation and depression was lower among this group of women, as was the indirect effect of social isolation and perceived social support when compared to European- and Latina-American mothers. Or, put differently, higher levels of social isolation were not found to be as associated with more depression or lower social support among African-American mothers when compared to their European- and Latina-American counterparts. ^ Women in American society occupy a number of roles, i.e., that of being female, married or single, mother, homemaker or employee. In addition, to these roles, ethnicity and SES also come into play, such that the intersection of all these roles and the social contexts that they occupy are equally important and must be taken into consideration when making predictions drawn from the social stress model. Based on these findings, it appears that the assumptions of the social stress model need to be revisited to include the variety of roles that intersect among individuals from differing social groups. More specifically, among women who are mothers and occupy a myriad of other roles, i.e., that of being female, married or single, African- or Latina-American, mother, homemaker or employee, the intersection of all the roles and the social contexts that women occupy are equally important and must be taken into consideration when looking at both the types and distribution of stressors across women. Predictions based on simple, mutually exclusive categories of social groups may lead to erroneous assumptions and misleading results.^

Effects of ocean acidification on visual risk assessment in coral reef fishes

1. With the global increase in CO2 emissions, there is a pressing need for studies aimed at understanding the effects of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems. Several studies have reported that exposure to CO2 impairs chemosensory responses of juvenile coral reef fishes to predators. Moreover, one recent study pointed to impaired responses of reef fish to auditory cues that indicate risky locations. These studies suggest that altered behaviour following exposure to elevated CO2 is caused by a systemic effect at the neural level. 2. The goal of our experiment was to test whether juvenile damselfish Pomacentrus amboinensis exposed to different levels of CO2 would respond differently to a potential threat, the sight of a large novel coral reef fish, a spiny chromis, Acanthochromis polyancanthus, placed in a watertight bag. 3. Juvenile damselfish exposed to 440 (current day control), 550 or 700 µatm CO2 did not differ in their response to the chromis. However, fish exposed to 850 µatm showed reduced antipredator responses; they failed to show the same reduction in foraging, activity and area use in response to the chromis. Moreover, they moved closer to the chromis and lacked any bobbing behaviour typically displayed by juvenile damselfishes in threatening situations. 4. Our results are the first to suggest that response to visual cues of risk may be impaired by CO2 and provide strong evidence that the multi-sensory effects of CO2 may stem from systematic effects at the neural level.

Geochemistry and risk assessment of street dust in Luanda, Angola, a tropical urban environment

A total of 92 samples of street dust were collected in Luanda, Angola, were sieved below 100 μm, and analysed by ICP-MS for 35 elements after an aqua-regia digestion. The concentration and spatial heterogeneity of trace elements in the street dust of Luanda are generally lower than in most industrialized cities in the Northern hemisphere. These observations reveal a predominantly “natural” origin for the street dust in Luanda, which is also manifested in that some geochemical processes that occur in natural soils are preserved in street dust: the separation of uranium from thorium, and the retention of the former by carbonate materials, or the high correlation between arsenic and vanadium due to their common mode of adsorption on solid particles in the form of oxyanions. The only distinct anthropogenic fingerprint in the composition of Luanda's street dust is the association Pb–Cd–Sb–Cu (and to a lesser extent, Ba–Cr–Zn). The use of risk assessment strategies has proved helpful in identifying the routes of exposure to street dust and the trace elements therein of most concern in terms of potential adverse health effects. In Luanda the highest levels of risk seem to be associated (a) with the presence of As and Pb in the street dust and (b) with the route of ingestion of dust particles, for all the elements included in the study except Hg, for which inhalation of vapours presents a slightly higher risk than ingestion. However, given the large uncertainties associated with the estimates of toxicity values and exposure factors, and the absence of site-specific biometric factors, these results should be regarded as preliminary and further research should be undertaken before any definite conclusions regarding potential health effects are drawn.