Incorporating weather into regionwide safety planning prediction models

Predicting safety on roadways is standard practice for road safety professionals and has a corresponding extensive literature. The majority of safety prediction models are estimated using roadway segment and intersection (microscale) data, while more recently efforts have been undertaken to predict safety at the planning level (macroscale). Safety prediction models typically include roadway, operations, and exposure variables—factors known to affect safety in fundamental ways. Environmental variables, in particular variables attempting to capture the effect of rain on road safety, are difficult to obtain and have rarely been considered. In the few cases weather variables have been included, historical averages rather than actual weather conditions during which crashes are observed have been used. Without the inclusion of weather related variables researchers have had difficulty explaining regional differences in the safety performance of various entities (e.g. intersections, road segments, highways, etc.) As part of the NCHRP 8-44 research effort, researchers developed PLANSAFE, or planning level safety prediction models. These models make use of socio-economic, demographic, and roadway variables for predicting planning level safety. Accounting for regional differences - similar to the experience for microscale safety models - has been problematic during the development of planning level safety prediction models. More specifically, without weather related variables there is an insufficient set of variables for explaining safety differences across regions and states. Furthermore, omitted variable bias resulting from excluding these important variables may adversely impact the coefficients of included variables, thus contributing to difficulty in model interpretation and accuracy. This paper summarizes the results of an effort to include weather related variables, particularly various measures of rainfall, into accident frequency prediction and the prediction of the frequency of fatal and/or injury degree of severity crash models. The purpose of the study was to determine whether these variables do in fact improve overall goodness of fit of the models, whether these variables may explain some or all of observed regional differences, and identifying the estimated effects of rainfall on safety. The models are based on Traffic Analysis Zone level datasets from Michigan, and Pima and Maricopa Counties in Arizona. Numerous rain-related variables were found to be statistically significant, selected rain related variables improved the overall goodness of fit, and inclusion of these variables reduced the portion of the model explained by the constant in the base models without weather variables. Rain tends to diminish safety, as expected, in fairly complex ways, depending on rain frequency and intensity.

Evaluation of the Scottsdale Loop 101 automated speed enforcement demonstration program

Speeding is recognized as a major contributing factor in traffic crashes. In order to reduce speed-related crashes, the city of Scottsdale, Arizona implemented the first fixed-camera photo speed enforcement program (SEP) on a limited access freeway in the US. The 9-month demonstration program spanning from January 2006 to October 2006 was implemented on a 6.5 mile urban freeway segment of Arizona State Route 101 running through Scottsdale. This paper presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the SEP on speeding behavior, crashes, and the economic impact of crashes. The impact on speeding behavior was estimated using generalized least square estimation, in which the observed speeds and the speeding frequencies during the program period were compared to those during other periods. The impact of the SEP on crashes was estimated using 3 evaluation methods: a before-and-after (BA) analysis using a comparison group, a BA analysis with traffic flow correction, and an empirical Bayes BA analysis with time-variant safety. The analysis results reveal that speeding detection frequencies (speeds> or =76 mph) increased by a factor of 10.5 after the SEP was (temporarily) terminated. Average speeds in the enforcement zone were reduced by about 9 mph when the SEP was implemented, after accounting for the influence of traffic flow. All crash types were reduced except rear-end crashes, although the estimated magnitude of impact varies across estimation methods (and their corresponding assumptions). When considering Arizona-specific crash related injury costs, the SEP is estimated to yield about $17 million in annual safety benefits.

The significance of owner participation in a successful detached housing development in Malaysia: A literature review

The detached housing scheme is a unique and exclusive segment of the residential property market in Malaysia. Generally, the product is expensive and for many Malaysians who can afford them, owning a detached house is a once in a lifetime opportunity. In spite of this, most of the owners fail to fully comprehend the specific need of this type of housing scheme, increasing the risk of it being a problematic project. Unlike other types of pre-designed ‘mass housing’ schemes, the detached housing scheme may be built specifically to cater the needs and demands of its owner. Therefore, maximum owner participation is vital as the development progresses to guarantee the success of the project. In addition, due to it’s unique design the house would have to individually comply with the requirements and regulations of relevant authorities. Failure of owner to recognise this will result in delays, fines and penalties, disputes and ultimately cost overruns. These circumstances highlight the need for a model to guide the owner through the entire development process of a detached house. Therefore, this research aims to develop a model for a successful detached housing development in Malaysia through maximising owner participation during it’s various development stages. To achieve this, questionnaire surveys and case studies methods shall be employed to acquire the detached housing owners’ experiences in developing their detached houses in Malaysia. Relevant statistical tools shall be applied to analyse the responses. The results gained from this study shall be synthesised into a model of successful detached housing development for the reference of future detached housing owners in Malaysia.

Development of a composite line source emission model for traffic interrupted microenvironments and its application in particle number emissions at a bus station

A composite line source emission (CLSE) model was developed to specifically quantify exposure levels and describe the spatial variability of vehicle emissions in traffic interrupted microenvironments. This model took into account the complexity of vehicle movements in the queue, as well as different emission rates relevant to various driving conditions (cruise, decelerate, idle and accelerate), and it utilised multi-representative segments to capture the accurate emission distribution for real vehicle flow. Hence, this model was able to quickly quantify the time spent in each segment within the considered zone, as well as the composition and position of the requisite segments based on the vehicle fleet information, which not only helped to quantify the enhanced emissions at critical locations, but it also helped to define the emission source distribution of the disrupted steady flow for further dispersion modelling. The model then was applied to estimate particle number emissions at a bi-directional bus station used by diesel and compressed natural gas fuelled buses. It was found that the acceleration distance was of critical importance when estimating particle number emission, since the highest emissions occurred in sections where most of the buses were accelerating and no significant increases were observed at locations where they idled. It was also shown that emissions at the front end of the platform were 43 times greater than at the rear of the platform. Although the CLSE model is intended to be applied in traffic management and transport analysis systems for the evaluation of exposure, as well as the simulation of vehicle emissions in traffic interrupted microenvironments, the bus station model can also be used for the input of initial source definitions in future dispersion models.

Group segmentation during object tracking using optical flow discontinuities

Within a surveillance video, occlusions are commonplace, and accurately resolving these occlusions is key when seeking to accurately track objects. The challenge of accurately segmenting objects is further complicated by the fact that within many real-world surveillance environments, the objects appear very similar. For example, footage of pedestrians in a city environment will consist of many people wearing dark suits. In this paper, we propose a novel technique to segment groups and resolve occlusions using optical flow discontinuities. We demonstrate that the ratio of continuous to discontinuous pixels within a region can be used to locate the overlapping edges, and incorporate this into an object tracking framework. Results on a portion of the ETISEO database show that the proposed algorithm results in improved tracking performance overall, and improved tracking within occlusions.

Molecular analysis of the myosin gene family in Arabidopsis thaliana

Myosin is believed to act as the molecular motor for many actin-based motility processes in eukaryotes. It is becoming apparent that a single species may possess multiple myosin isoforms, and at least seven distinct classes of myosin have been identified from studies of animals, fungi, and protozoans. The complexity of the myosin heavy-chain gene family in higher plants was investigated by isolating and characterizing myosin genomic and cDNA clones from Arabidopsis thaliana. Six myosin-like genes were identified from three polymerase chain reaction (PCR) products (PCR1, PCR11, PCR43) and three cDNA clones (ATM2, MYA2, MYA3). Sequence comparisons of the deduced head domains suggest that these myosins are members of two major classes. Analysis of the overall structure of the ATM2 and MYA2 myosins shows that they are similar to the previously-identified ATM1 and MYA1 myosins, respectively. The MYA3 appears to possess a novel tail domain, with five IQ repeats, a six-member imperfect repeat, and a segment of unique sequence. Northern blot analyses indicate that some of the Arabidopsis myosin genes are preferentially expressed in different plant organs. Combined with previous studies, these results show that the Arabidopsis genome contains at least eight myosin-like genes representing two distinct classes.

Implementing low intensity CBT in case management of clients with severe mental illness

In a previous chapter (Dean and Kavanagh, Chapter 37), the authors made a case for applying low intensity (LI) cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) to people with serious mental illness (SMI). As in other populations, LI CBT interventions typically deal with circumscribed problems or behaviours. LI CBT retains an emphasis on self-management, has restricted content and segment length, and does not necessarily require extensive CBT training. In applying these interventions to SMI, adjustments may be needed to address cognitive and symptomatic difficulties often faced by these groups. What may take a single session in a less affected population may require several sessions or a thematic application of the strategy within case management. In some cases, the LI CBT may begin to appear more like a high-intensity (HI) intervention, albeit simple and with many LI CBT characteristics still retained. So, if goal setting were introduced in one or two sessions, it could clearly be seen as an LI intervention. When applied to several different situations and across many sessions, it may be indistinguishable from a simple HI treatment, even if it retains the same format and is effectively applied by a practitioner with limited CBT training. ----- ----- In some ways, LI CBT should be well suited to case management of patients with SMI. treating staff typically have heavy workloads, and find it difficult to apply time-consuming treatments (Singh et al. 2003). LI CBT may allow provision of support to greater numbers of service users, and allow staff to spend more time on those who need intensive and sustained support. However, the introduction of any change in practice has to address significant challenges, and LI CBT is no exception. ----- ----- Many of the issues that we face in applying LI CBT to routine case management in a mnetal health service and their potential solutions are essentially the same as in a range of other problem domains (Turner and Sanders 2006)- and, indeed, are similar to those in any adoption of innovation (Rogers 2003). Over the last 20 years, several commentators have described barriers to implementing evidence-based innovations in mental health services (Corrigan et al. 1992; Deane et al. 2006; Kavanagh et al. 1993). The aim of the current chapter is to present a cognitive behavioural conceptualisation of problems and potential solutions for dissemination of LI CBT.

Adapting low intensity CBT interventions for clients with severe mental illness

Many people with severe mental illness (SMI) such as schizophrenia, whose psychotic symptoms are effectively managed, continue to experience significant functional problems. This chapter argues that low intensity (LI) cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT; e.g. for depression, anxiety, or other issues) is applicable to these clients, and that LI CBT can be consistent with long-term case management. However, adjustments to LI CBT strategies are often necessary and boundaries between LI CBT and high intensity (HI) CBT (with more extensive practitioner contact and complexity) may become blurred. Our focus is on LI CBT's self-management emphasis, its restricted content and segment length, and potential use after limited training. In addition to exploring these issues, it draws on the authors' Collaborative Recovery (CR; Oades et al. 2005) and 'Start Over and Survive' programs (Kavanagh et al. 2004) as examples. ----- ----- Evidence for the effectiveness of LI CBT with severe mental illness is often embedded within multicomponent programs. For example, goal setting and therapeutic homework are common components of such programs, but they can also be used as discrete LI CBT interventions. A review of 40 randomised controlled trials involving recipients with schizophrenia or other sever mental illnesses has identified key components of illness management programs (Mueser et al. 2002). However, it is relatively rare for specific components of these complex interventions to be assessed in isolation. Given these constraints, the evidence for specific LI CBT interventions with severe mental ilnness is relatively limited.

The role of vision in obese and normal-weight children's gait control

Previous research has suggested that perceptual-motor difficulties may account for obese children's lower motor competence; however, specific evidence is currently lacking. Therefore, this study examined the effect of altered visual conditions on spatiotemporal and kinematic gait parameters in obese versus normal-weight children. Thirty-two obese and normal-weight children (11.2 ± 1.5 years) walked barefoot on an instrumented walkway at constant self-selected speed during LIGHT and DARK conditions. Three-dimensional motion analysis was performed to calculate spatiotemporal parameters, as well as sagittal trunk segment and lower extremity joint angles at heel-strike and toe-off. Self-selected speed did not significantly differ between groups. In the DARK condition, all participants walked at a significantly slower speed, decreased stride length, and increased stride width. Without normal vision, obese children had a more pronounced increase in relative double support time compared to the normal-weight group, resulting in a significantly greater percentage of the gait cycle spent in stance. Walking in the DARK, both groups showed greater forward tilt of the trunk and restricted hip movement. All participants had increased knee flexion at heel-strike, as well as decreased knee extension and ankle plantarflexion at toe-off in the DARK condition. The removal of normal vision affected obese children's temporal gait pattern to a larger extent than that of normal-weight peers. Results suggest an increased dependency on vision in obese children to control locomotion. Next to the mechanical problem of moving excess mass, a different coupling between perception and action appears to be governing obese children's motor coordination and control.

An assessment system for evaluation of driving competencies

Automobiles have deeply impacted the way in which we travel but they have also contributed to many deaths and injury due to crashes. A number of reasons for these crashes have been pointed out by researchers. Inexperience has been identified as a contributing factor to road crashes. Driver’s driving abilities also play a vital role in judging the road environment and reacting in-time to avoid any possible collision. Therefore driver’s perceptual and motor skills remain the key factors impacting on road safety. Our failure to understand what is really important for learners, in terms of competent driving, is one of the many challenges for building better training programs. Driver training is one of the interventions aimed at decreasing the number of crashes that involve young drivers. Currently, there is a need to develop comprehensive driver evaluation system that benefits from the advances in Driver Assistance Systems. A multidisciplinary approach is necessary to explain how driving abilities evolves with on-road driving experience. To our knowledge, driver assistance systems have never been comprehensively used in a driver training context to assess the safety aspect of driving. The aim and novelty of this thesis is to develop and evaluate an Intelligent Driver Training System (IDTS) as an automated assessment tool that will help drivers and their trainers to comprehensively view complex driving manoeuvres and potentially provide effective feedback by post processing the data recorded during driving. This system is designed to help driver trainers to accurately evaluate driver performance and has the potential to provide valuable feedback to the drivers. Since driving is dependent on fuzzy inputs from the driver (i.e. approximate distance calculation from the other vehicles, approximate assumption of the other vehicle speed), it is necessary that the evaluation system is based on criteria and rules that handles uncertain and fuzzy characteristics of the driving tasks. Therefore, the proposed IDTS utilizes fuzzy set theory for the assessment of driver performance. The proposed research program focuses on integrating the multi-sensory information acquired from the vehicle, driver and environment to assess driving competencies. After information acquisition, the current research focuses on automated segmentation of the selected manoeuvres from the driving scenario. This leads to the creation of a model that determines a “competency” criterion through the driving performance protocol used by driver trainers (i.e. expert knowledge) to assess drivers. This is achieved by comprehensively evaluating and assessing the data stream acquired from multiple in-vehicle sensors using fuzzy rules and classifying the driving manoeuvres (i.e. overtake, lane change, T-crossing and turn) between low and high competency. The fuzzy rules use parameters such as following distance, gaze depth and scan area, distance with respect to lanes and excessive acceleration or braking during the manoeuvres to assess competency. These rules that identify driving competency were initially designed with the help of expert’s knowledge (i.e. driver trainers). In-order to fine tune these rules and the parameters that define these rules, a driving experiment was conducted to identify the empirical differences between novice and experienced drivers. The results from the driving experiment indicated that significant differences existed between novice and experienced driver, in terms of their gaze pattern and duration, speed, stop time at the T-crossing, lane keeping and the time spent in lanes while performing the selected manoeuvres. These differences were used to refine the fuzzy membership functions and rules that govern the assessments of the driving tasks. Next, this research focused on providing an integrated visual assessment interface to both driver trainers and their trainees. By providing a rich set of interactive graphical interfaces, displaying information about the driving tasks, Intelligent Driver Training System (IDTS) visualisation module has the potential to give empirical feedback to its users. Lastly, the validation of the IDTS system’s assessment was conducted by comparing IDTS objective assessments, for the driving experiment, with the subjective assessments of the driver trainers for particular manoeuvres. Results show that not only IDTS was able to match the subjective assessments made by driver trainers during the driving experiment but also identified some additional driving manoeuvres performed in low competency that were not identified by the driver trainers due to increased mental workload of trainers when assessing multiple variables that constitute driving. The validation of IDTS emphasized the need for an automated assessment tool that can segment the manoeuvres from the driving scenario, further investigate the variables within that manoeuvre to determine the manoeuvre’s competency and provide integrated visualisation regarding the manoeuvre to its users (i.e. trainers and trainees). Through analysis and validation it was shown that IDTS is a useful assistance tool for driver trainers to empirically assess and potentially provide feedback regarding the manoeuvres undertaken by the drivers.

Using data mining to predict road crash count with a focus on skid resistance values

Road crashes cost world and Australian society a significant proportion of GDP, affecting productivity and causing significant suffering for communities and individuals. This paper presents a case study that generates data mining models that contribute to understanding of road crashes by allowing examination of the role of skid resistance (F60) and other road attributes in road crashes. Predictive data mining algorithms, primarily regression trees, were used to produce road segment crash count models from the road and traffic attributes of crash scenarios. The rules derived from the regression trees provide evidence of the significance of road attributes in contributing to crash, with a focus on the evaluation of skid resistance.

Strategies for appropriate technology and competitive performance in infrastructure construction

Earlier research developed theoretically-based aggregate metrics for technology strategy and used them to analyze California bridge construction firms (Hampson, 1993). Determinants of firm performance, including trend in contract awards, market share and contract awards per employee, were used as indicators for competitive performance. The results of this research were a series of refined theoretically-based measures for technology strategy and a demonstrated positive relationship between technology strategy and competitive performance within the bridge construction sector. This research showed that three technology strategy dimensions—competitive positioning, depth of technology strategy, and organizational fit— show very strong correlation with the competitive performance indicators of absolute growth in contract awards, and contract awards per employee. Both researchers and industry professionals need improved understanding of how technology affects results, and how to better target investments to improve competitive performance in particular industry sectors. This paper builds on the previous research findings by evaluating the strategic fit of firms' approach to technology with industry segment characteristics. It begins with a brief overview of the background regarding technology strategy. The major sections of the paper describe niches and firms in an example infrastructure construction market, analyze appropriate technology strategies, and describe managerial actions to implement these strategies and support the business objectives of the firm.

Impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations (stop-and-go driving). The negative environmental impacts of these oscillations are widely accepted, but their impact on traffic safety has been debated. This paper describes the impact of freeway traffic oscillations on traffic safety. This study employs a matched case-control design using high-resolution traffic and crash data from a freeway segment. Traffic conditions prior to each crash were taken as cases, while traffic conditions during the same periods on days without crashes were taken as controls. These were also matched by presence of congestion, geometry and weather. A total of 82 cases and about 80,000 candidate controls were extracted from more than three years of data from 2004 to 2007. Conditional logistic regression models were developed based on the case-control samples. To verify consistency in the results, 20 different sets of controls were randomly extracted from the candidate pool for varying control-case ratios. The results reveal that the standard deviation of speed (thus, oscillations) is a significant variable, with an average odds ratio of about 1.08. This implies that the likelihood of a (rear-end) crash increases by about 8% with an additional unit increase in the standard deviation of speed. The average traffic states prior to crashes were less significant than the speed variations in congestion.

Freeway traffic oscillations : microscopic analysis of formations and propagations using Wavelet Transform

In this paper we identify the origins of stop-and-go (or slow-and-go) driving and measure microscopic features of their propagations by analyzing vehicle trajectories via Wavelet Transform. Based on 53 oscillation cases analyzed, we find that oscillations can be originated by either lane-changing maneuvers (LCMs) or car-following behavior (CF). LCMs were predominantly responsible for oscillation formations in the absence of considerable horizontal or vertical curves, whereas oscillations formed spontaneously near roadside work on an uphill segment. Regardless of the trigger, the features of oscillation propagations were similar in terms of propagation speed, oscillation duration, and amplitude. All observed cases initially exhibited a precursor phase, in which slow-and-go motions were localized. Some of them eventually transitioned into a well developed phase, in which oscillations propagated upstream in queue. LCMs were primarily responsible for the transition, although some transitions occurred without LCMs. Our findings also suggest that an oscillation has a regressive effect on car following behavior: a deceleration wave of an oscillation affects a timid driver (with larger response time and minimum spacing) to become less timid and an aggressive driver less aggressive, although this change may be short-lived. An extended framework of Newell’s CF is able to describe the regressive effects with two additional parameters with reasonable accuracy, as verified using vehicle trajectory data.

Attribute exclusion strategies in airline choice : accounting for exogenous information on decision maker processing strategies in models of discrete choice

We examine the impact of individual-specific information processing strategies (IPSs) on the inclusion/exclusion of attributes on the parameter estimates and behavioural outputs of models of discrete choice. Current practice assumes that individuals employ a homogenous IPS with regards to how they process attributes of stated choice (SC) experiments. We show how information collected exogenous of the SC experiment on whether respondents either ignored or considered each attribute may be used in the estimation process, and how such information provides outputs that are IPS segment specific. We contend that accounting the inclusion/exclusion of attributes will result in behaviourally richer population parameter estimates.