Statistical assessment of annual patterns in coastal extreme wave conditions

[EN]The annual cycle in extreme values of significant wave height is examined by transforming the timing ofthe storm peaks in a circular variable, with the aim of taking advantage of the many tests devised to explore uniformity on the circle. The use of four different but complementary uniformity tests makes possible a robust assessment of the annual cycle statistical significance. Seasonality of storms in a long time series of significant wave heights, measured in a coastal zone, is examined. The presence of a seasonal pattem is statistically beyond doubt.

Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions and an increase of the low- to mid-tropospheric moisture. Furthermore, the jet stream position (during ≥5-year return level events) supports the eastern basin being in a divergence area, where ascent motions are favoured. Our results contribute to an improved understanding of daily precipitation extremes in the cold season and associated large scale atmospheric features.

Polygonal cracks in the seasonal semi-translucent CO2 ice layer in Martian polar areas

In this paper, we use morphological and numerical methods to test the hypothesis that seasonally formed fracture patterns in the Martian polar regions result from the brittle failure of seasonal CO2 slab ice. The observations by the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) of polar regions of Mars show very narrow dark elongated linear patterns that are observed during some periods of time in spring, disappear in summer and re-appear again in the following spring. They are repeatedly formed in the same areas but they do not repeat the exact pattern from year to year. This leads to the conclusion that they are cracks formed in the seasonal ice layer. Some of models of seasonal surface processes rely on the existence of a transparent form of CO2 ice, so-called slab ice. For the creation of the observed cracks the ice is required to be a continuous media, not an agglomeration of relatively separate particles like a firn. The best explanation for our observations is a slab ice with relatively high transparency in the visible wavelength range. This transparency allows a solid state green-house effect to act underneath the ice sheet raising the pressure by sublimation from below. The trapped gas creates overpressure and the ice sheet breaks at some point creating the observed cracks. We show that the times when the cracks appear are in agreement with the model calculation, providing one more piece of evidence that CO2 slab ice covers polar areas in spring.

Seasonal variation in orthopedic health services utilization in Switzerland: the impact of winter sport tourism

BACKGROUND: Climate- or holiday-related seasonality in hospital admission rates is well known for many diseases. However, little research has addressed the impact of tourism on seasonality in admission rates. We therefore investigated the influence of tourism on emergency admission rates in Switzerland, where winter and summer leisure sport activities in large mountain regions can generate orthopedic injuries. METHODS: Using small area analysis, orthopedic hospital service areas (HSAo) were evaluated for seasonality in emergency admission rates. Winter sport areas were defined using guest bed accommodation rate patterns of guest houses and hotels located above 1000 meters altitude that show clear winter and summer peak seasons. Emergency admissions (years 2000-2002, n = 135'460) of local and nonlocal HSAo residents were evaluated. HSAo were grouped according to their area type (regular or winter sport area) and monthly analyses of admission rates were performed. RESULTS: Of HSAo within the defined winter sport areas 70.8% show a seasonal, summer-winter peak hospital admission rate pattern and only 1 HSAo outside the defined winter sport areas shows such a pattern. Seasonal hospital admission rates in HSAo in winter sport areas can be up to 4 times higher in winter than the intermediate seasons, and they are almost entirely due to admissions of nonlocal residents. These nonlocal residents are in general -and especially in winter- younger than local residents, and nonlocal residents have a shorter length of stay in winter sport than in regular areas. The overall geographic distribution of nonlocal residents admitted for emergencies shows highest rates during the winter as well as the summer in the winter sport areas. CONCLUSION: Small area analysis using orthopedic hospital service areas is a reliable method for the evaluation of seasonality in hospital admission rates. In Switzerland, HSAo defined as winter sport areas show a clear seasonal fluctuation in admission rates of only nonlocal residents, whereas HSAo defined as regular, non-winter sport areas do not show such seasonality. We conclude that leisure sport, and especially ski/snowboard tourism demands great flexibility in hospital beds, staff and resource planning in these areas.

Wolf habitat selection at the territory level : seasonal and interannual variation and influence on reproductive success

Habitat selection has been one of the main research topics in ecology for decades. Nevertheless, many aspects of habitat selection still need to be explored. In particular, previous studies have overlooked the importance of temporal variation in habitat selection and the value of including data on reproductive success in order to describe the best quality habitat for a species. We used data collected from radiocollared wolves in Yellowstone National Park (USA), between 1996 and 2008, to describe wolf habitat selection. In particular, we aimed to identify i) seasonal differences in wolf habitat selection, ii) factors influencing interannual variation in habitat selection, and iii) the effect of habitat selection on wolf reproductive success. We used probability density functions to describe wolf habitat use and habitat coverages to represent the habitat available to wolves. We used regression analysis to connect habitat use with habitat characteristics and habitat selection with reproductive success. Our most relevant result was discovering strong interannual variability in wolf habitat selection. This variability was in part explained by pack identity and differences in litter size and leadership of a pack between two years (summer) and in pack size and precipitation (winter). We also detected some seasonal differences. Wolves selected open habitats, intermediate elevations, intermediate distances from roads, and avoided steep slopes in late winter. They selected areas close to roads and avoided steep slopes in summer. In early winter, wolves selected wetlands, herbaceous and shrub vegetation types, and areas at intermediate elevation and distance from roads. Surprisingly, the habitat characteristics selected by wolves were not useful in predicting reproductive success. We hypothesize that interannual variability in wolf habitat selection may be too strong to detect effects on reproductive success. Moreover, prey availability and competitor pressure may also have an influence on wolf reproductive success, which we did not assess. This project demonstrated how important temporal variation is in shaping patterns of habitat selection. We still believe in the value of running long-term studies, but the effect of temporal variation should always be taken into account.

Analysis of atmospheric transport and the effects of seasonal and interannual transport variability on measurements made at the Pico Mountain observatory

A non-hierarchical K-means algorithm is used to cluster 47 years (1960–2006) of 10-day HYSPLIT backward trajectories to the Pico Mountain (PM) observatory on a seasonal basis. The resulting cluster centers identify the major transport pathways and collectively comprise a long-term climatology of transport to the observatory. The transport climatology improves our ability to interpret the observations made there and our understanding of pollution source regions to the station and the central North Atlantic region. I determine which pathways dominate transport to the observatory and examine the impacts of these transport patterns on the O3, NOy, NOx, and CO measurements made there during 2001–2006. Transport from the U.S., Canada, and the Atlantic most frequently reaches the station, but Europe, east Africa, and the Pacific can also contribute significantly depending on the season. Transport from Canada was correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in spring and winter, and transport from the Pacific was uncorrelated with the NAO. The highest CO and O3 are observed during spring. Summer is also characterized by high CO and O3 and the highest NOy and NOx of any season. Previous studies at the station attributed the summer time high CO and O3 to transport of boreal wildfire emissions (for 2002–2004), and boreal fires continued to affect the station during 2005 and 2006. The particle dispersion model FLEXPART was used to calculate anthropogenic and biomass-burning CO tracer values at the station in an attempt to identify the regions responsible for the high CO and O3 observations during spring and biomass-burning impacts in summer.

Spatial and temporal patterns in ungulate-ecosystem interactions

Ungulates are important components of a variety of ecosystems worldwide. This dissertation integrates aspects of ungulate and forest ecology to increase our understanding of how they work together in ways that are of interest to natural resource managers, educators, and those who are simply curious about nature. Although animal ecology and ecosystem ecology are often studied separately, one of the general goals of this dissertation is to examine how they interact across spatial and temporal scales. Forest ecosystems are heterogeneous across a range of scales. Spatial and temporal habitat use patterns of forest ungulates tend to be congregated in patches where food and/or cover are readily available. Ungulates interact with ecosystem processes by selectively foraging on plants and excreting waste products in concentrated patches. Positive feedbacks may develop where these activities increase the value of habitat through soil fertilization or the alteration of plant chemistry and architecture. Heterogeneity in ecosystem processes and plant community structure, observed at both stand and local scales, may be the integrated outcome of feedbacks between ungulate behavior and abiotic resource gradients. The first chapter of this dissertation briefly discusses pertinent background information on ungulate ecology, with a focus on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the Upper Great Lakes region and moose (Alces acles) in Isle Royale National Park, Michigan, USA. The second chapter demonstrates why ecological context is important for studying ungulate ecology in forest ecosystems. Excluding deer from eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) stands, which deer use primarily as winter cover, resulted in less spatial complexity in soil reactive nitrogen and greater complexity in diffuse light compared to unfenced stands. The spatial patterning of herbaceous-layer cover was more similar to nitrogen where deer were present, and was a combination of nitrogen and light within deer exclosures. This relationship depends on the seasonal timing of deer habitat use because deer fertilize the soil during winter, but leave during the growing season. The third chapter draws upon an eight-year, 39-stand data set of deer fecal pellet counts in hemlock stands to estimate the amount of nitrogen that deer are depositing in hemlock stands each winter. In stands of high winter deer use, deer-excreted nitrogen inputs consistently exceeded those of atmospheric deposition at the stand scale. At the neighborhood scale, deer-excreted nitrogen was often in excess of atmospheric deposition due to the patchy distribution of deer habitat use. Spatial patterns in habitat use were consistent over the eight-year study at both stand and neighborhood scales. The fourth chapter explores how foraging selectivity by moose interacts with an abiotic resource gradient to influence forest structure and composition. Soil depth on Isle Royale varies from east to west according to glacial history. Fir saplings growing in deeper soils on the west side are generally more palatable forage for moose (lower foliar C:N) than those growing in shallower soils on the east side. Therefore, saplings growing in better conditions are less likely to reach the canopy due to moose browsing, and fir is a smaller overstory component on the west side. Lastly, chapter five focuses on issues surrounding eastern hemlock regeneration failure, which is a habitat type that is important to many wildlife species. Increasing hemlock on the landscape is complicated by several factors including disturbance regime and climate change, in addition to the influence of deer.

Seasonal controls on grassland microbial biogeography: Are they governed by plants, abiotic properties or both?

Temporal dynamics create unique and often ephemeral conditions that can influence soil microbial biogeography at different spatial scales. This study investigated the relation between decimeter to meter spatial variability of soil microbial community structure, plant diversity, and soil properties at six dates from April through November. We also explored the robustness of these interactions over time. An historically unfertilized, unplowed grassland in southwest Germany was selected to characterize how seasonal variability in the composition of plant communities and substrate quality changed the biogeography of soil microorganisms at the plot scale (10 m x 10 m). Microbial community spatial structure was positively correlated with the local environment, i.e. physical and chemical soil properties, in spring and autumn, while the density and diversity of plants had an additional effect in the summer period. Spatial relationships among plant and microbial communities were detected only in the early summer and autumn periods when aboveground biomass increase was most rapid and its influence on soil microbial communities was greatest due to increased demand by plants for nutrients. Individual properties exhibited varying degrees of spatial structure over the season. Differential responses of Gram positive and Gram negative bacterial communities to seasonal shifts in soil nutrients were detected. We concluded that spatial distribution patterns of soil microorganisms change over a season and that chemical soil properties are more important controlling factors than plant density and diversity. Finer spatial resolution, such as the mm to cm scale, as well as taxonomic resolution of microbial groups, could help determine the importance of plant species density, composition, and growth stage in shaping microbial community composition and spatial patterns. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Firn-Ice Core Records from the Inilchek Glacierized Area, Central Tien Shan, Asia

Glacioclimatological research in the central Tien Shan was performed in the summers of 1998 and 1999 on the South Inilchek Glacier at 5100 - 5460 m. A 14.36 m firn-ice core and snow samples were collected and used for stratigraphic, isotopic, and chemical analyses. The firn-ice core and snow records were related to snow pit measurements at an event scale and to meteorological data and synoptic indices of atmospheric circulation at annual and seasonal scales. Linear relationships between the seasonal air temperature and seasonal isotopic composition in accumulated precipitation were established. Changes in the delta(18)O air temperature relationship, in major ion concentration and in the ratios between chemical species, were used to identify different sources of moisture and investigate changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. Precipitation over the central Tien Shan is characterized by the lowest ionic content among the Tien Shan glaciers and indicates its mainly marine origin. In seasons of minimum precipitation, autumn and winter, water vapor was derived from the arid and semiarid regions in central Eurasia and contributed annual maximal solute content to snow accumulation in Tien Shan. The lowest content of major ions was observed in spring and summer layers, which represent maximum seasonal accumulation when moisture originates over the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean and Black Seas.

Spatial Patterns of Intraseasonal Variability of Chlorophyll and Sea Surface Temperature in the California Current

Six years of daily satellite data are used to quantify and map intraseasonal variability of chlorophyll and sea surface temperature (SST) in the California Current. We define intraseasonal variability as temporal variation remaining after removal of interannual variability and stationary seasonal cycles. Semivariograms are used to quantify the temporal structure of residual time series. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of semivariograms calculated across the region isolate dominant scales and corresponding spatial patterns of intraseasonal variability. The mode 1 EOFs for both chlorophyll and SST semivariograms indicate a dominant timescale of similar to 60 days. Spatial amplitudes and patterns of intraseasonal variance derived from mode 1 suggest dominant forcing of intraseasonal variability through distortion of large scale chlorophyll and SST gradients by mesoscale circulation. Intraseasonal SST variance is greatest off southern Baja and along southern Oregon and northern California. Chlorophyll variance is greatest over the shelf and slope, with elevated values closely confined to the Baja shelf and extending farthest from shore off California and the Pacific Northwest. Intraseasonal contributions to total SST variability are strongest near upwelling centers off southern Oregon and northern California, where seasonal contributions are weak. Intraseasonal variability accounts for the majority of total chlorophyll variance in most inshore areas save for southern Baja, where seasonal cycles dominate. Contributions of higher EOF modes to semivariogram structure indicate the degree to which intraseasonal variability is shifted to shorter timescales in certain areas. Comparisons of satellite-derived SST semivariograms to those calculated from co-located and concurrent buoy SST time series show similar features.

Seasonal Distribution and Movements of Shortnose Sturgeon and Atlantic Sturgeon in the Penobscot River Estuary, Maine

Relatively little is known about the distribution and seasonal movement patterns of shortnose sturgeon Acipenser brevirostrum and Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus occupying rivers in the northern part of their range. During 2006 and 2007, 40 shortnose sturgeon (66-113.4 cm fork length [FL]) and 8 Atlantic sturgeon (76.2-166.2 cm FL) were captured in the Penobscot River, Maine, implanted with acoustic transmitters, and monitored using an array of acoustic receivers in the Penobscot River estuary and Penobscot Bay. Shortnose sturgeon were present year round in the estuary and overwintered from fall (mid-October) to spring (mid-April) in the upper estuary. In early spring, all individuals moved downstream to the middle estuary. Over the course of the summer, many individuals moved upstream to approximately 2 km of the downstream-most dam (46 river kilometers [rkm] from the Penobscot River mouth [rkm 0]) by August. Most aggregated into an overwintering site (rkm 36.5) in mid-to late fall. As many as 50% of the tagged shortnose sturgeon moved into and out of the Penobscot River system during 2007, and 83% were subsequently detected by an acoustic array in the Kennebec River, located 150 km from the Penobscot River estuary. Atlantic sturgeon moved into the estuary from the ocean in the summer and concentrated into a 1.5-km reach. All Atlantic sturgeon moved to the ocean by fall, and two of these were detected in the Kennebec River. Although these behaviors are common for Atlantic sturgeon, regular coastal migrations of shortnose sturgeon have not been documented previously in this region. These results have important implications for future dam removals as well as for rangewide and river-specific shortnose sturgeon management.

Qualitative Distinction of Autotrophic and Heterotrophic Processes at the Leaf Level by Means of Triple Stable Isotope (C–O–H) Patterns

Foliar samples were harvested from two oaks, a beech, and a yew at the same site in order to trace the development of the leaves over an entire vegetation season. Cellulose yield and stable isotopic compositions (δ13C, δ18O, and δD) were analyzed on leaf cellulose. All parameters unequivocally define a juvenile and a mature period in the foliar expansion of each species. The accompanying shifts of the δ13C-values are in agreement with the transition from remobilized carbohydrates (juvenile period), to current photosynthates (mature phase). While the opponent seasonal trends of δ18O of blade and vein cellulose are in perfect agreement with the state-of-art mechanistic understanding, the lack of this discrepancy for δD, documented for the first time, is unexpected. For example, the offset range of 18 permil (oak veins) to 57 permil (oak blades) in δD may represent a process driven shift from autotrophic to heterotrophic processes. The shared pattern between blade and vein found for both oak and beech suggests an overwhelming metabolic isotope effect on δD that might be accompanied by proton transfer linked to the Calvin-cycle. These results provide strong evidence that hydrogen and oxygen are under different biochemical controls even at the leaf level.

Seasonal changes in labile organic matter composition on the continental shelf and bathyal sediments of the Cretan Sea

Bacterial abundance, biomass and cell size were studied in the oligotrophic sediments of the Cretan Sea (Eastern Mediterranean), in order to investigate their response to the seasonal varying organic matter (OM) inputs. Sediment samples were collected on a seasonal basis along a transect of seven stations (ranging from 40 to 1570 m depth) using a multiple-corer. Bacterial parameters were related to changes in chloroplastic pigment equivalents (CPE), the biochemical composition (proteins, lipids, carbohydrates) of the sedimentary organic matter and the OM flux measured at a fixed station over the deep basin (1570 m depth). The sediments of the Cretan Sea represent a nutrient depleted ecosystem characterised by a poor quality organic matter. All sedimentary organic compounds were found to vary seasonally, and changes were more evident on the continental shelf than in deeper sediments. Bacterial abundance and biomass in the sediments of the Cretan Sea (ranging from 1.02 to 4.59 * 10**8 cells/g equivalent to 8.7 and 38.7 µgC/g) were quite high and their distribution appeared to be closely related to the input of fresh organic material. Bacterial abundance and biomass were sensitive to changes in nutrient availability, which also controls the average cell size and the frequency of dividing cells. Bacterial abundance increased up to 3-fold between August '94 and February '95 in response to the increased amount of sedimentary proteins and CPE, indicating that benthic bacteria were constrained more by changes in quality rather than the quantity of the sedimentary organic material. Bacterial responses to the food inputs were clearly detectable down to 10 cm depth. The distribution of labile organic compounds in the sediments appeared to influence the vertical patterns of bacterial abundance and biomass. Cell size decreased significantly with water depth. Bacterial abundance and biomass were characterised by clear seasonal changes in response to seasonal OM pulses. The strong coupling between protein flux and bacterial biomass together with the strong bacterial dominance over the total biomass suggest that the major part of the carbon flow was channelled through the bacteria and the benthic microbial loop.