The dynamics of the Swiss electricity market : three essays

Executive Summary Electricity is crucial for modern societies, thus it is important to understand the behaviour of electricity markets in order to be prepared to face the consequences of policy changes. The Swiss electricity market is now in a transition stage from a public monopoly to a liberalised market and it is undergoing an "emergent" liberalisation - i.e. liberalisation taking place without proper regulation. The withdrawal of nuclear capacity is also being debated. These two possible changes directly affect the mechanisms for capacity expansion. Thus, in this thesis we concentrate on understanding the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market. A conceptual model to help understand the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market is developed an explained in the first essay. We identify a potential risk of imports dependence. In the second essay a System Dynamics model, based on the conceptual model, is developed to evaluate the consequences of three scenarios: a nuclear phase-out, the implementation of a policy for avoiding imports dependence, and the combination of both. We conclude that the Swiss market is not well prepared to face unexpected changes of supply and demand, and we identify a risk of imports dependence, mainly in the case of a nuclear phase-out. The third essay focus on the opportunity cost of hydro-storage power generation, one of the main generation sources in Switzerland. We use and extended version of our model to test different policies for assigning an opportunity cost to hydro-storage power generation. We conclude that the preferred policies are different for different market participants and depend on market structure.

Constitutively active mutants of the alpha 1B-adrenergic receptor: role of highly conserved polar amino acids in receptor activation.

Site-directed mutagenesis and molecular dynamics simulations of the alpha 1B-adrenergic receptor (AR) were combined to explore the potential molecular changes correlated with the transition from R (inactive state) to R (active state). Using molecular dynamics analysis we compared the structural/dynamic features of constitutively active mutants with those of the wild type and of an inactive alpha 1B-AR to build a theoretical model which defines the essential features of R and R. The results of site-directed mutagenesis were in striking agreement with the predictions of the model supporting the following hypothesis. (i) The equilibrium between R and R depends on the equilibrium between the deprotonated and protonated forms, respectively, of D142 of the DRY motif. In fact, replacement of D142 with alanine confers high constitutive activity to the alpha 1B-AR. (ii) The shift of R143 of the DRY sequence out of a conserved 'polar pocket' formed by N63, D91, N344 and Y348 is a feature common to all the active structures, suggesting that the role of R143 is fundamental for mediating receptor activation. Disruption of these intramolecular interactions by replacing N63 with alanine constitutively activates the alpha 1B-AR. Our findings might provide interesting generalities about the activation process of G protein-coupled receptors.

Molecular determinants of desensitization in an ENaC/degenerin channel.

Epithelial Na(+) channel (ENaC)/degenerin family members are involved in mechanosensation, blood pressure control, pain sensation, and the expression of fear. Several of these channel types display a form of desensitization that allows the channel to limit Na(+) influx during prolonged stimulation. We used site-directed mutagenesis and chemical modification, functional analysis, and molecular dynamics simulations to investigate the role of the lower palm domain of the acid-sensing ion channel 1, a member of the ENaC/degenerin family. The lower palm domains of this trimeric channel are arranged around a central vestibule, at ∼20 Å above the plasma membrane and are covalently linked to the transmembrane channel parts. We show that the lower palm domains approach one another during desensitization. Residues in the palm co-determine the pH dependence of desensitization, its kinetics, and the stability of the desensitized state. Mutations of palm residues impair desensitization by preventing the closing movement of the palm. Overexpression of desensitization-impaired channel mutants in central neurons allowed--in contrast to overexpression of wild type--a sustained signaling response to rapid pH fluctuations. We identify and describe here the function of an important regulatory domain that most likely has a conserved role in ENaC/degenerin channels.

Molecular modeling of peptide-MHC class I complexes : applications to peptide based immunotherapy

Summary The specific CD8+ T cell immune response against tumors relies on the recognition by the T cell receptor (TCR) on cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) of antigenic peptides bound to the class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecule. Such tumor associated antigenic peptides are the focus of tumor immunotherapy with peptide vaccines. The strategy for obtaining an improved immune response often involves the design of modified tumor associated antigenic peptides. Such modifications aim at creating higher affinity and/or degradation resistant peptides and require precise structures of the peptide-MHC class I complex. In addition, the modified peptide must be cross-recognized by CTLs specific for the parental peptide, i.e. preserve the structure of the epitope. Detailed structural information on the modified peptide in complex with MHC is necessary for such predictions. In this thesis, the main focus is the development of theoretical in silico methods for prediction of both structure and cross-reactivity of peptide-MHC class I complexes. Applications of these methods in the context of immunotherapy are also presented. First, a theoretical method for structure prediction of peptide-MHC class I complexes is developed and validated. The approach is based on a molecular dynamics protocol to sample the conformational space of the peptide in its MHC environment. The sampled conformers are evaluated using conformational free energy calculations. The method, which is evaluated for its ability to reproduce 41 X-ray crystallographic structures of different peptide-MHC class I complexes, shows an overall prediction success of 83%. Importantly, in the clinically highly relevant subset of peptide-HLAA*0201 complexes, the prediction success is 100%. Based on these structure predictions, a theoretical approach for prediction of cross-reactivity is developed and validated. This method involves the generation of quantitative structure-activity relationships using three-dimensional molecular descriptors and a genetic neural network. The generated relationships are highly predictive as proved by high cross-validated correlation coefficients (0.78-0.79). Together, the here developed theoretical methods open the door for efficient rational design of improved peptides to be used in immunotherapy. Résumé La réponse immunitaire spécifique contre des tumeurs dépend de la reconnaissance par les récepteurs des cellules T CD8+ de peptides antigéniques présentés par les complexes majeurs d'histocompatibilité (CMH) de classe I. Ces peptides sont utilisés comme cible dans l'immunothérapie par vaccins peptidiques. Afin d'augmenter la réponse immunitaire, les peptides sont modifiés de façon à améliorer l'affinité et/ou la résistance à la dégradation. Ceci nécessite de connaître la structure tridimensionnelle des complexes peptide-CMH. De plus, les peptides modifiés doivent être reconnus par des cellules T spécifiques du peptide natif. La structure de l'épitope doit donc être préservée et des structures détaillées des complexes peptide-CMH sont nécessaires. Dans cette thèse, le thème central est le développement des méthodes computationnelles de prédiction des structures des complexes peptide-CMH classe I et de la reconnaissance croisée. Des applications de ces méthodes de prédiction à l'immunothérapie sont également présentées. Premièrement, une méthode théorique de prédiction des structures des complexes peptide-CMH classe I est développée et validée. Cette méthode est basée sur un échantillonnage de l'espace conformationnel du peptide dans le contexte du récepteur CMH classe I par dynamique moléculaire. Les conformations sont évaluées par leurs énergies libres conformationnelles. La méthode est validée par sa capacité à reproduire 41 structures des complexes peptide-CMH classe I obtenues par cristallographie aux rayons X. Le succès prédictif général est de 83%. Pour le sous-groupe HLA-A*0201 de complexes de grande importance pour l'immunothérapie, ce succès est de 100%. Deuxièmement, à partir de ces structures prédites in silico, une méthode théorique de prédiction de la reconnaissance croisée est développée et validée. Celle-ci consiste à générer des relations structure-activité quantitatives en utilisant des descripteurs moléculaires tridimensionnels et un réseau de neurones couplé à un algorithme génétique. Les relations générées montrent une capacité de prédiction remarquable avec des valeurs de coefficients de corrélation de validation croisée élevées (0.78-0.79). Les méthodes théoriques développées dans le cadre de cette thèse ouvrent la voie du design de vaccins peptidiques améliorés.

Model for curvature-driven pearling instability in membranes

A phase-field model for dealing with dynamic instabilities in membranes is presented. We use it to study curvature-driven pearling instability in vesicles induced by the anchorage of amphiphilic polymers on the membrane. Within this model, we obtain the morphological changes reported in recent experiments. The formation of a homogeneous pearled structure is achieved by consequent pearling of an initial cylindrical tube from the tip. For high enough concentration of anchors, we show theoretically that the homogeneous pearled shape is energetically less favorable than an inhomogeneous one, with a large sphere connected to an array of smaller spheres.

On the many-time formulation of classical particle dynamics

Starting from the standard one-time dynamics of n nonrelativistic particles, the n-time equations of motion are inferred, and a variational principle is formulated. A suitable generalization of the classical LieKnig theorem is demonstrated, which allows the determination of all the associated presymplectic structures. The conditions under which the action of an invariance group is canonical are studied, and a corresponding Noether theorem is deduced. A formulation of the theory in terms of n first-class constraints is recovered by means of coisotropic imbeddings. The proposed approach also provides for a better understanding of the relativistic particle dynamics, since it shows that the different roles of the physical positions and the canonical variables is not peculiar to special relativity, but rather to any n-time approach: indeed a nonrelativistic no-interaction theorem is deduced.

Static structure and dynamics of the liquid Li-Na and Li-Mg alloys

We present calculations for the static structure and ordering properties of two lithium-based s-p bonded liquid alloys, Li-Na and Li-Mg. Our theoretical approach is based on the neutral pseudoatom method to derive the interatomic pair potentials, and on the modified-hypernetted-chain theory of liquids to obtain the liquid static structure, leading to a whole combination that is free of adjustable parameters. The study is complemented by performing molecular dynamics simulations which, besides checking the theoretical static structural results, also allow a calculation of some dynamical properties. The obtained results are compared with the available experimental data.

Self-dynamic structure factor of dense liquids: Theory and simulation

The self-intermediate dynamic structure factor Fs(k,t) of liquid lithium near the melting temperature is calculated by molecular dynamics. The results are compared with the predictions of several theoretical approaches, paying special attention to the Lovesey model and the Wahnstrm and Sjgren mode-coupling theory. To this end the results for the Fs(k,t) second memory function predicted by both models are compared with the ones calculated from the simulations.

Liquid-liquid phase transition for soft-core attractive potential

Using event-driven molecular dynamics simulations, we study a three-dimensional one-component system of spherical particles interacting via a discontinuous potential combining a repulsive square soft core and an attractive square well. In the case of a narrow attractive well, it has been shown that this potential has two metastable gas-liquid critical points. Here we systematically investigate how the changes of the parameters of this potential affect the phase diagram of the system. We find a broad range of potential parameters for which the system has both a gas-liquid critical point C1 and a liquid-liquid critical point C2. For the liquid-gas critical point we find that the derivatives of the critical temperature and pressure, with respect to the parameters of the potential, have the same signs: they are positive for increasing width of the attractive well and negative for increasing width and repulsive energy of the soft core. This result resembles the behavior of the liquid-gas critical point for standard liquids. In contrast, for the liquid-liquid critical point the critical pressure decreases as the critical temperature increases. As a consequence, the liquid-liquid critical point exists at positive pressures only in a finite range of parameters. We present a modified van der Waals equation which qualitatively reproduces the behavior of both critical points within some range of parameters, and gives us insight on the mechanisms ruling the dependence of the two critical points on the potential¿s parameters. The soft-core potential studied here resembles model potentials used for colloids, proteins, and potentials that have been related to liquid metals, raising an interesting possibility that a liquid-liquid phase transition may be present in some systems where it has not yet been observed.

Lack of Enantioselectivity in the SULT1A3-catalyzed Sulfoconjugation of Normetanephrine Enantiomers: An In Vitro and Computational Study.

(1R)-Normetanephrine is the natural stereoisomeric substrate for sulfotransferase 1A3 (SULT1A3)-catalyzed sulfonation. Nothing appears known on the enantioselectivity of the reaction despite its potential significance in the metabolism of adrenergic amines and in clinical biochemistry. We confronted the kinetic parameters of the sulfoconjugation of synthetic (1R)-normetanephrine and (1S)-normetanephrine by recombinant human SULT1A3 to a docking model of each normetanephrine enantiomer with SULT1A3 and the 3'-phosphoadenosine-5'-phosphosulfate cofactor on the basis of molecular modeling and molecular dynamics simulations of the stability of the complexes. The K(M) , V(max) , and k(cat) values for the sulfonation of (1R)-normetanephrine, (1S)-normetanephrine, and racemic normetanephrine were similar. In silico models were consistent with these findings as they showed that the binding modes of the two enantiomers were almost identical. In conclusion, SULT1A3 is not substrate-enantioselective toward normetanephrine, an unexpected finding explainable by a mutual adaptability between the ligands and SULT1A3 through an "induced-fit model" in the catalytic pocket. Chirality, 00:000-000, 2012.© 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Protein-ligand binding free energy estimation using molecular mechanics and continuum electrostatics. Application to HIV-1 protease inhibitors.

A method is proposed for the estimation of absolute binding free energy of interaction between proteins and ligands. Conformational sampling of the protein-ligand complex is performed by molecular dynamics (MD) in vacuo and the solvent effect is calculated a posteriori by solving the Poisson or the Poisson-Boltzmann equation for selected frames of the trajectory. The binding free energy is written as a linear combination of the buried surface upon complexation, SASbur, the electrostatic interaction energy between the ligand and the protein, Eelec, and the difference of the solvation free energies of the complex and the isolated ligand and protein, deltaGsolv. The method uses the buried surface upon complexation to account for the non-polar contribution to the binding free energy because it is less sensitive to the details of the structure than the van der Waals interaction energy. The parameters of the method are developed for a training set of 16 HIV-1 protease-inhibitor complexes of known 3D structure. A correlation coefficient of 0.91 was obtained with an unsigned mean error of 0.8 kcal/mol. When applied to a set of 25 HIV-1 protease-inhibitor complexes of unknown 3D structures, the method provides a satisfactory correlation between the calculated binding free energy and the experimental pIC5o without reparametrization.

The role of Cysteine 6.47 in class A GPCRs

Abstract Background: The CWxP motif of transmembrane helix 6 (x: any residue) is highly conserved in class A GPCRs. Within this motif, W6.48 is a big star in the theory of the global “toggle switch” because of its key role in the activation mechanism of GPCRs upon ligand binding. With all footlights focused on W6.48, the reason why the preceding residue, C6.47, is largely conserved is still unknown. The present study is aimed to fill up this lack of knowledge by characterizing the role of C6.47 of the CWxP motif. Results: A complete analysis of available crystal structures has been made alongside with molecular dynamics simulations of model peptides to explore a possible structural role for C6.47. Conclusions: We conclude that C6.47 does not modulate the conformation of the TM6 proline kink and propose that C6.47 participates in the rearrangement of the TM6 and TM7 interface accompanying activation.

Fourier transform convolution integrals applied to generalized Born molecular volume.

Generalized Born methods are currently among the solvation models most commonly used for biological applications. We reformulate the generalized Born molecular volume method initially described by (Lee et al, 2003, J Phys Chem, 116, 10606; Lee et al, 2003, J Comp Chem, 24, 1348) using fast Fourier transform convolution integrals. Changes in the initial method are discussed and analyzed. Finally, the method is extensively checked with snapshots from common molecular modeling applications: binding free energy computations and docking. Biologically relevant test systems are chosen, including 855-36091 atoms. It is clearly demonstrated that, precision-wise, the proposed method performs as good as the original, and could better benefit from hardware accelerated boards.

Cluster glasses of ultrasoft particles

We present molecular dynamics (MD) simulations results for dense fluids of ultrasoft, fully penetrable particles. These are a binary mixture and a polydisperse system of particles interacting via the generalized exponential model, which is known to yield cluster crystal phases for the corresponding monodisperse systems. Because of the dispersity in the particle size, the systems investigated in this work do not crystallize and form disordered cluster phases. The clusteringtransition appears as a smooth crossover to a regime in which particles are mostly located in clusters, isolated particles being infrequent. The analysis of the internal cluster structure reveals microsegregation of the big and small particles, with a strong homo-coordination in the binary mixture. Upon further lowering the temperature below the clusteringtransition, the motion of the clusters" centers-of-mass slows down dramatically, giving way to a cluster glass transition. In the cluster glass, the diffusivities remain finite and display an activated temperature dependence, indicating that relaxation in the cluster glass occurs via particle hopping in a nearly arrested matrix of clusters. Finally we discuss the influence of the microscopic dynamics on the transport properties by comparing the MD results with Monte Carlo simulations.

Matching stages of heavy-ion collision models

Heavy-ion reactions and other collective dynamical processes are frequently described by different theoretical approaches for the different stages of the process, like initial equilibration stage, intermediate locally equilibrated fluid dynamical stage, and final freeze-out stage. For the last stage, the best known is the Cooper-Frye description used to generate the phase space distribution of emitted, noninteracting particles from a fluid dynamical expansion or explosion, assuming a final ideal gas distribution, or (less frequently) an out-of-equilibrium distribution. In this work we do not want to replace the Cooper-Frye description, but rather clarify the ways of using it and how to choose the parameters of the distribution and, eventually, how to choose the form of the phase space distribution used in the Cooper-Frye formula. Moreover, the Cooper-Frye formula is used in connection with the freeze-out problem, while the discussion of transition between different stages of the collision is applicable to other transitions also. More recently, hadronization and molecular dynamics models have been matched to the end of a fluid dynamical stage to describe hadronization and freeze-out. The stages of the model description can be matched to each other on space-time hypersurfaces (just like through the frequently used freeze-out hypersurface). This work presents a generalized description of how to match the stages of the description of a reaction to each other, extending the methodology used at freeze-out, in simple covariant form which is easily applicable in its simplest version for most applications.