Human Capital in Economic Development: From Labour Productivity to Macroeconomic Impact

Micro-econometric evidence reveals high private returns to education, most prominently in low-income countries. However, it is disputed to what extent this translates into a macro-economic impact. This paper projects the increase in human capital from higher education in Malawi and uses a dynamic applied general equilibrium model to estimate the resulting macroeconomics impact. This is contingent upon endogenous adjustments, in particular how labour productivity affects competitiveness and if this in turn stimulates exports. Choice among commonly applied labour market assumptions and trade elasticities results in widely different outcomes. Appraisal of such policies should consider not only the impact on human capital stocks, but also adjustments outside the labour market.

Prospective validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index. A clinical prognostic model for pulmonary embolism

Practice guidelines recommend outpatient care for selected patients with non-massive pulmonary embolism (PE), but fail to specify how these low-risk patients should be identified. Using data from U.S. patients, we previously derived the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), a prediction rule that risk stratifies patients with PE. We sought to validate the PESI in a European patient cohort. We prospectively validated the PESI in patients with PE diagnosed at six emergency departments in three European countries. We used baseline data for the rule's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V) of increasing probability of mortality. The outcome was overall mortality at 90 days after presentation. To assess the accuracy of the PESI to predict mortality, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for low- (risk classes I/II) versus higher-risk patients (risk classes III-V), and the discriminatory power using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Among 357 patients with PE, overall mortality was 5.9%, ranging from 0% in class I to 17.9% in class V. The 186 (52%) low-risk patients had an overall mortality of 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-3.8%) compared to 11.1% (95% CI: 6.8-16.8%) in the 171 (48%) higher-risk patients. The PESI had a high sensitivity (91%, 95% CI: 71-97%) and a negative predictive value (99%, 95% CI: 96-100%) for predicting mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.86). The PESI reliably identifies patients with PE who are at low risk of death and who are potential candidates for outpatient care. The PESI may help physicians make more rational decisions about hospitalization for patients with PE.

Firm dynamics support the importance of the embodied question

This paper contributes to the literature on both embodied technical progress and firm dynamics, by formulating an endogenous growth model where selection and imitation play a fundamental role in helping capital good producers to learn about the productivity of technologies embodied in new plants. By calibrating the model to some key aggregates particularly relevant for the embodied capital literature, among them the growth rate of the relative investment price, the model quantitatively replicates the main facts associated to firm dynamics, such as the entry rate and the tail index of the establishment size distribution. In line with the previous literature, it also predicts a contribution to productivity growth of embodied technical progress and selection of around 60%

Human capital spillovers, productivity and regional convergence in Spain

This paper analyses the differential impact of human capital, in terms of different levels of schooling, on regional productivity and convergence. The potential existence of geographical spillovers of human capital is also considered by applying spatial panel data techniques. The empirical analysis of Spanish provinces between 1980 and 2007 confirms the positive impact of human capital on regional productivity and convergence, but reveals no evidence of any positive geographical spillovers of human capital. In fact, in some specifications the spatial lag presented by tertiary studies has a negative effect on the variables under consideration.

Does Internationalization Alter the R&D-Productivity Relationship?

R&D investment is an important driver of productivity gains. However, firms differ in their ability to appropiate the returns to their R&D efforts. This paper analyses to what extent firm's internationalization influences the endogenous relation between R&D and productivity. In particular, we assess the contribution of R&D to productivity for a panel of UK firms that differ in their degree of internationalization. We find that, on average, multinationals obtain higher gains from their investment in R&D. However, the influence of internationalization on the contribution of R&D to productivity varies along the distribution of the returns to R&D. Keywords: R&D, Multinationals, Productivity. JEL Codes: C14, D24, F23.

Innovation sources and productivity in Catalonian firms: a quantile regression analysis

This paper explores the effects of two main sources of innovation - intramural and external R&D— on the productivity level in a sample of 3,267 Catalonian firms. The data set used is based on the official innovation survey of Catalonia which was a part of the Spanish sample of CIS4, covering the years 2002-2004. We compare empirical results by applying usual OLS and quantile regression techniques both in manufacturing and services industries. In quantile regression, results suggest different patterns at both innovation sources as we move across conditional quantiles. The elasticity of intramural R&D activities on productivity decreased when we move up the high productivity levels both in manufacturing and services sectors, while the effects of external R&D rise in high-technology industries but are more ambiguous in low-technology and knowledge-intensive services. JEL codes: O300, C100, O140 Keywords: Innovation sources, R&D, Productivity, Quantile Regression

Les préférences alimentaires sont-elles influencées par l'index de masse corporelle, l'âge, le sexe ou le tabac [Are food preferences affected by body mass index, age, sex or tobacco?].

In recent decades the percentage of energy derived from dietary fat has increased. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between food taste preferences, BMI, age, gender and smoking habits. A computerized questionnaire using a hedonic scale (range 0 to 8) to quantify the liking for sweet and savoury, lean and fat foods, was filled by 233 adults: 171 normal weight (131 women, 40 men) and 62 overweight subjects (BMI > 25 kg/m2 42 women, 20 men). The majority of the subjects had a general preference for savoury lean food irrespective of their BMI or gender. Similarly, preference for sweet lean food was not influenced by the magnitude of the BMI. In contrast, overweight subjects had a preference for sweet fat food (p = 0.05) as well as for savoury fat food (p < 0.05). At any age or BMI, men preferred sweet fat food (p < 0.01). This was not the case for women. Overweight men over forty preferred savoury fat food, in contrast to overweight women of the same age (p < 0.01). The same difference existed between normal weight smokers and non-smokers. This study demonstrates that fat food preference plays a potential role in the development of obesity.

Adiposity indicators and blood pressure in children: nothing beyond body mass index?

Obesity is a major risk factor for elevated blood pressure in children. For instance, in a school-based study of 5207 children aged 10-12 years, the prevalence of hypertension, which is sustained elevated blood pressure over several visits, was 1.5%, 3.9% and 17.5% in normal weight, overweight and obese children, respectively. High body mass index (BMI) is commonly used to define overweight and obesity. However, because BMI is merely a proxy for adiposity, there is a longstanding debate about its performance to predict elevated blood pressure (or any other health conditions associated with adiposity) and whether other adiposity indicators, such as waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio or hip circumference, should not be preferred... In this study, 7.4% of boys and 6.4% of girls had elevated blood pressure. The adiposity indicators were highly correlated to each other, apart from weight, waist-to-hip ratio and skinfold thickness z-scores. All indicators were associated with blood pressure. The ability to identify children with elevated blood pressure, assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistic, was superior for BMI, body adiposity index and waist-to-height ratio z-scores compared with other indicators. BMI z-scores had a slightly higher AUC than other indicators. The authors concluded that BMIz-scores could be a better predictor of elevated blood pressure in children than other adiposity indicators.

The multipoint Morisita index for the analysis of spatial patterns

In many fields, the spatial clustering of sampled data points has many consequences. Therefore, several indices have been proposed to assess the level of clustering affecting datasets (e.g. the Morisita index, Ripley's Kfunction and Rényi's generalized entropy). The classical Morisita index measures how many times it is more likely to select two measurement points from the same quadrats (the data set is covered by a regular grid of changing size) than it would be in the case of a random distribution generated from a Poisson process. The multipoint version (k-Morisita) takes into account k points with k >= 2. The present research deals with a new development of the k-Morisita index for (1) monitoring network characterization and for (2) detection of patterns in monitored phenomena. From a theoretical perspective, a connection between the k-Morisita index and multifractality has also been found and highlighted on a mathematical multifractal set.

The eta invariant and equivariant index of transversally elliptic operators

We prove a formula for the multiplicities of the index of an equivariant transversally elliptic operator on a G-manifold. The formula is a sum of integrals over blowups of the strata of the group action and also involves eta invariants of associated elliptic operators. Among the applications, we obtain an index formula for basic Dirac operators on Riemannian foliations, a problem that was open for many years.

The Wage-Productivity gap revisited: is the labour share neutral to employment?

This paper challenges the prevailing view of the neutrality of the labour income share to labour demand, and investigates its impact on the evolution of employment. Whilst maintaining the assumption of a unitary long-run elasticity of wages with respect to productivity, we demonstrate that productivity growth affects the labour share in the long run due to frictional growth (that is, the interplay of wage dynamics and productivity growth). In the light of this result, we consider a stylised labour demand equation and show that the labour share is a driving force of employment. We substantiate our analytical exposition by providing empirical models of wage setting and employment equations for France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the UK, and the US over the 1960-2008 period. Our findings show that the timevarying labour share of these countries has significantly influenced their employment trajectories across decades. This indicates that the evolution of the labour income share (or, equivalently, the wage-productivity gap) deserves the attention of policy makers.

Productivity, quality, and export intensities

We study how firm and foreign market characteristics affect the geographic distribution of exporter' sales. To this purpose, we use export intensities (the ratio of exports to sales) across destinations as our key measures of firms'relative involvement in heterogeneous foreign markets. In a representative sample of Italian manufacturing firms, we find a robust negative correlation between revenue-TFP and export intensity to low-income destinations and, more generally, that the correlations between export intensities and TFP are increasing in per capita income of the foreign destinations. We argue that these (and other) empirical regularities can arise from the interplay between (endogenous) cross-firm heterogeneity in product quality and cross-country heterogeneity in quality consumption. To test this conjecture, we propose a new strategy to proxy for product quality that allows to exploit some unique features of our dataset. Our results strongly suggest that firms producing higher-quality products tend to concentrate their sales in the domestic and other high-income markets.

Infrastructures and productivity: an updated survey

The relationship between infrastructures and productivity has been the subject of an ongoing debate during the last two decades. The available empirical evidence is inconclusive and its interpretation is complicated by econometric problems that have not been fully solved. This paper surveys the relevant literature, focusing on studies that estimate aggregate production functions or growth regressions, and extracts some tentative conclusions. On the whole, my reading of the evidence is that there are sufficient indications that public infrastructure investment contributes significantly to productivity growth, at least for countries where a saturation point has not been reached. The returns to such investment are probably quite high in early stages, when infrastructures are scarce and basic networks have not been completed, but fall sharply thereafter. Hence, appropriate infrastructure provision is probably a key input for development policy, even if it does not hold the key to rapid productivity growth in advanced countries where transportation and communications needs are already adequately served.

Sentinel lymph node involvement and a high Breslow index are independent factors of risk for early relapse of melanoma.

AIM: The clinical relevance of sentinel lymph node (SLN) analysis was evaluated prospectively and compared with other known risk factors of relapse in early stage melanoma. METHODS: Surgery was guided by lymphoscintigraphy, blue dye and gamma probe detection. SLN were analysed by haematoxylin eosin (HE) histochemistry and multimarker immunohistochemistry (IHC). Disease free survival (DFS) was evaluated with Kaplan-Meier plots according to different parameters and Cox analyses of variance. RESULTS: From 210 patients a total of 381 SLN were excised. Lymphoscintigraphy identified all excised SLN with only 2 false positive lymphatic lakes. Fifty patients (24%) had tumour positive SLN. With a mean follow-up of 31.3 months, 29 tumour recurrences were observed, 19 (38%) in 50 SLN positive and 10 (6%) in 160 SLN negative patients. Strong predictive factors for early relapse (p < 0.0005) were SLN positivity and a high Breslow index. CONCLUSION: SLN tumour positivity is an independent factor of high risk for early relapse with a higher power of discrimination than the Breslow index.

Fecal calprotectin more accurately reflects endoscopic activity of ulcerative colitis than the Lichtiger Index, CRP, or blood leukocytes

Background: Mucosal healing in ulcerative colitis (UC) is reported to be associated with favourable clinical outcomes such as reduced hospitalization and surgery rates. Activity monitoring by endoscopy has its shortcomings due to invasiveness, costs, and potential patient discomfort. Data on the correlation of noninvasive biomarkers with endoscopic severity in UC are scarce. Aim: to evaluate the correlation between endoscopic activity according to the modified Baron Index and fecal calprotectin, C-reactive protein (CRP), blood leukocytes, and the Lichtiger Index (clinical score). Methods: UC patients with leftsided and extensive colitis undergoing complete colonoscopy were prospectively enrolled and scored clinically and endoscopically. Fecal and blood samples were analyzed in UC patients (in a blinded fashion) and controls. The modified Baron score describes the following 5 endoscopic conditions: 0 = normal, 1 = granular mucosa, edema, 2 = friable mucosa but no spontaneous bleeding, 3 = microulcerations with spontaneous bleeding, 4 = gross ulceration, denuded mucosa. Results: We enrolled 228 UC patients (mean age 41 ± 13 years, 39 female) and 52 healthy controls. Disease was located in 40% in the left colon, 21% had an extensive and 39% a pancolitis. Endoscopic disease activity correlated best with fecal calprotectin (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient r = 0.821), followed by the Lichtiger Index (r = 0.682), CRP (r = 0.556), and blood leukocytes (r = 0.401). Fecal calprotectin was the only marker that could discriminate between different grades of endoscopic activity (grade 0, 25 ± 11 μg/g; grade 1, 44 ± 34 μg/g; grade 2, 111 ± 74 μg/g; grade 3, 330 ± 332 μg/g; grade 4, 659 ± 319 μg/g; P = 0.002 for discriminating grade 0 vs. 1, and P < 0.001 for discriminating grade 1 vs. 2, grade 2 vs. 3, and grade 3 vs. 4). Fecal calprotectin had the highest overall accuracy (91%) to detect endoscopically active disease (modified Baron Index ≥ 2), followed by the Lichtiger Index score of ≥ 4 (77%), CRP > 5 mg/L (69%) and blood leukocytosis (58%). Conclusions: Fecal calprotectin better correlated with endoscopic disease activity than clinical activity, CRP, and blood leukocytes. The strong correlation with endoscopic disease activity suggests that FC represents a useful biomarker for noninvasive monitoring of disease activity in UC patients.