Contextual effects on political behavior

In her post-doctoral research stay, Aina Gallego has conducted several research projects with the overarching theme of identifying the effects of contexts on political behavior. She has examined the effects of institutions, the economic situation, or local contexts on outcomes such as voter turnout, vote choice, and positions on salient issues. As detailed below, this work has been published in several journal articles in leading Political Science journals such as Comparative Political Studies, Political Behavior, and Electoral Studies (see attached documents). She has a forthcoming book with Cambridge University Press, the most prestigious book press in Political Science.She has also published book chapters and has several working papers. In addition to conducting her research, Aina has received extensive training in both substantive areas and research methods. She has participated fully in the Department’s academic life by attending seminars and engaging in research projects with other members of the Department.

El fet migratori a Catalunya i els processos d'identificació nacional en la població nouvinguda

En el marc de la recerca sobre identitats i nova ciutadania, l’objecte d’aquest treball és reconèixer elements clau dels processos d’identificació nacional a Catalunya en la població nouvinguda, i identificar els factors que n'afavoreixen la seva vinculació comunitària. La recerca s'ha desenvolupat en un primer bloc analitzant la perspectiva sociològica entorn a la idea d’identitat, així com l’evolució del discurs identitari a Catalunya, a fi de continuar desenvolupant amb profunditat el debat sobre identitat i nació en relació al fet migratori i la diversitat social existent. En un segon bloc d’anàlisi, la recerca fixa la mirada a una dotzena de casos treballats a través d’històries de vida de diverses realitats migratòries del nostre país corresponents a les diverses onades del segle XX, tant d’immigració espanyola com d'immigració de fora de l'Estat espanyol. La voluntat d’aquest segon bloc és extreure experiències socials d’interpretacions individuals que assenyalin quins elements permeten o dificulten la mobilitat social, quines experiències tenen valor identitari i de quin tipus, i quins fenòmens esdevenen rellevants en la configuració d’espais de referència i identificació nacional a nivell individual. Finalment s’incorpora un apartat d’entrevistes en profunditat a diversos actors socials i polítics rellevants a fi de reconèixer aquells elements que centren el discurs de la “nova cultura pública comuna”. L’objectiu és interrelacionar el discurs polític i filosòfic actual amb l’experiència biogràfica de les persones, assenyalant aquells elements que han estat significatius per a la seva identitat com a catalans i catalanes o, ans al contrari, que no han afavorit una situació en aquests termes. En aquest sentit la pregunta que vincula aquest espai de reflexió és: Quins elements afavoreixen la identificació nacional englobant la diversitat social existent i quins mecanismes d'adhesió hi podrien funcionar?

The political economy of childcare in OECD countries : Explaining cross-national variation in spending and coverage rates

If childcare policy has become topical in most OECD countries over the last ten years or so, actual developments display huge cross-national variations. Countries like Sweden and Denmark spend around 2 per cent of GDP on this service, and provide affordable childcare places to most children below school age. At the other extreme, in Southern Europe, only around 10 per cent of this age group has access to formal daycare. Against this background, this article aims to account for cross-national variations in childcare services. It distinguishes two dependent variables: the coverage rate and the proportion of GDP spent subsidising childcare services. Using a mix of cross-sectional and pooled times-series methods, it tests a series of hypotheses concerning the determinants of the development of this policy. Its main conclusion for the coverage rate is that key factors are public spending and wage dispersion (both positive). For spending, key factors are the proportion of women in parliaments (positive) and spending on age-related policies (negative).

Event-related potential analyses via single-subject topographic classification.

Introduction: Responses to external stimuli are typically investigated by averaging peri-stimulus electroencephalography (EEG) epochs in order to derive event-related potentials (ERPs) across the electrode montage, under the assumption that signals that are related to the external stimulus are fixed in time across trials. We demonstrate the applicability of a single-trial model based on patterns of scalp topographies (De Lucia et al, 2007) that can be used for ERP analysis at the single-subject level. The model is able to classify new trials (or groups of trials) with minimal a priori hypotheses, using information derived from a training dataset. The features used for the classification (the topography of responses and their latency) can be neurophysiologically interpreted, because a difference in scalp topography indicates a different configuration of brain generators. An above chance classification accuracy on test datasets implicitly demonstrates the suitability of this model for EEG data. Methods: The data analyzed in this study were acquired from two separate visual evoked potential (VEP) experiments. The first entailed passive presentation of checkerboard stimuli to each of the four visual quadrants (hereafter, "Checkerboard Experiment") (Plomp et al, submitted). The second entailed active discrimination of novel versus repeated line drawings of common objects (hereafter, "Priming Experiment") (Murray et al, 2004). Four subjects per experiment were analyzed, using approx. 200 trials per experimental condition. These trials were randomly separated in training (90%) and testing (10%) datasets in 10 independent shuffles. In order to perform the ERP analysis we estimated the statistical distribution of voltage topographies by a Mixture of Gaussians (MofGs), which reduces our original dataset to a small number of representative voltage topographies. We then evaluated statistically the degree of presence of these template maps across trials and whether and when this was different across experimental conditions. Based on these differences, single-trials or sets of a few single-trials were classified as belonging to one or the other experimental condition. Classification performance was assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: For the Checkerboard Experiment contrasts entailed left vs. right visual field presentations for upper and lower quadrants, separately. The average posterior probabilities, indicating the presence of the computed template maps in time and across trials revealed significant differences starting at ~60-70 ms post-stimulus. The average ROC curve area across all four subjects was 0.80 and 0.85 for upper and lower quadrants, respectively and was in all cases significantly higher than chance (unpaired t-test, p<0.0001). In the Priming Experiment, we contrasted initial versus repeated presentations of visual object stimuli. Their posterior probabilities revealed significant differences, which started at 250ms post-stimulus onset. The classification accuracy rates with single-trial test data were at chance level. We therefore considered sub-averages based on five single trials. We found that for three out of four subjects' classification rates were significantly above chance level (unpaired t-test, p<0.0001). Conclusions: The main advantage of the present approach is that it is based on topographic features that are readily interpretable along neurophysiologic lines. As these maps were previously normalized by the overall strength of the field potential on the scalp, a change in their presence across trials and between conditions forcibly reflects a change in the underlying generator configurations. The temporal periods of statistical difference between conditions were estimated for each training dataset for ten shuffles of the data. Across the ten shuffles and in both experiments, we observed a high level of consistency in the temporal periods over which the two conditions differed. With this method we are able to analyze ERPs at the single-subject level providing a novel tool to compare normal electrophysiological responses versus single cases that cannot be considered part of any cohort of subjects. This aspect promises to have a strong impact on both basic and clinical research.

Entre a dominação simbólica e a emancipação política no Ensino Superior em Enfermagem: Between symbolic domination and political emancipation

Nesta reflexão, problematizamos a atividade de cuidar e de ensinar a cuidar em enfermagem e, para tanto, vamos tomar por base alguns conceitos sobre a dominação e o poder simbólicos de Pierre Bourdieu. Nosso pressuposto foi pensar a saúde como um constituinte fundamental para a produção da nossa existência sobre a Terra. A educação, neste texto, é abordada, tendo por referência as ideias de Pedro Demo, entendidas como uma construtora de sujeitos políticos e bem mais amplas que o manejo do conhecimento formal. A educação é a base primeira sobre a qual se constrói a autonomia humana e, assim, permite a constante ampliação das oportunidades para o exercício da cidadania, qualificando a nossa existência cotidiana. No contexto acadêmico, no qual se cruzam a saúde, a educação e a enfermagem, o trabalho docente competente, crítico e, sobretudo, reflexivo, pode se tornar uma práxis altamente instituinte.

Political mobilisation and models of trade unionism : Southern Europe in comparative perspective

The relationship between union membership and political mobilization has been studied under many perspectives, but quantitative cross-national analyses have been hampered by the absence of international comparable survey data until the first round of the European Social Survey (ESS-2002) was made available. Using different national samples from this survey in four moments of time (2002, 2004 and 2006), our paper provides evidence of cross-country divergence in the empirical association between political mobilisation and trade union membership. Cross-national differences in union members’ political mobilization, we argue, can be explained by the existence of models of unionism that in turn differ with respect to two decisive factors: the institutionalisation of trade union activity and the opportunities left-wing parties have available for gaining access to executive power.

Immigration and contested nation-building : explaining the political salience of immigration in multi-national societies

Multi-national societies present a complex setting for the politics of immigration, as migration’s linguistic, economic and cultural effects may coincide with existing contestation over nationhood between sub-units and the central state. Empirically, though, political actors only sometimes, and in some places, explicitly connect the politics of immigration to the stakes of multi-level politics. With reference to Canada, Belgium and the United Kingdom, this paper examines the conditions under which political leaders link immigration to ongoing debate about governance in multi-national societies. The paper argues that the distribution of policy competencies in the multi-level system is less important for shaping immigration and integration politics than is the perceived impact (positive or negative) on the sub-unit’s societal culture or its power relationship with the center. Immigration and integration are more often politicized where center and sub-unit hold divergent views on migration and its place in national identity.

Predictors of political orientation among US-born Mexican Americans: cultural identification, acculturation attitudes and socioeconomic status

With each passing election, U.S. political campaigns have renewed their efforts in courting the “Latino vote,” yet the Latino population is not a culturally homogenous voting bloc. This study examined how cultural identifications and acculturation attitudes in U.S. born Mexican Americans interacted with socioeconomic status (SES) to predict political orientation. Individuals who held stronger Mexican identity and supported biculturalism as an acculturation strategy had a more liberal orientation, while belonging to a higher SES group and holding stronger assimilation attitudes predicted a less liberal orientation. Mexican cultural identification interacted with SES such that those who held a weaker Mexican identity, but came from a higher social class were less liberal and more moderate in their political orientation. Weak Mexican identification and higher SES also predicted weaker endorsement of bicultural acculturation attitudes, which in turn, mediated the differences in political orientation. The acceptance of one’s ethnic identity and endorsement of bicultural attitudes predicted a more liberal political orientation. In light of these findings, political candidates should be cautious in how they pander to Latino constituents—referencing the groups’ ethnic culture or customs may distance constituents who are not strongly identified with their ethnic culture.

Recognition and political accommodation: from regionalism to secessionism. The Catalan case

Having lived through a bloody civil war in the 1930s followed by four decades of General Franco’s dictatorship, the Spanish state carried out a transition to a democratic system at the end of the 1970s. The 1978 Constitution was the legal outcome of this transition process. Among other things, it established a territorial model – the so-called “Estado de las Autonomías” (State of Autonomous Communities) – which was designed to satisfy the historical demands for recognition and self-government of, above all, the citizens and institutions of Catalonia and the Basque Country .In recent years support for independence has increased in Catalonia. Different indicators show that pro-independence demands are endorsed by a majority of its citizens, as well as by most of the political parties and organizations that represent its civil society. This is a new phenomenon. Those in favour of independence had been in the minority throughout the 20th century. Nowadays, however, demands of a pro-autonomy and pro-federalist nature, which until recently had been dominant, have gradually lost public support in favour of demands for self-determination and secession. This paper analyses the massive increase in support for secession in Catalonia during the early years of the 21st century. After describing the different theories of secession in plurinational liberal democracies (section 1), we analyse Catalonia’s political evolution over the past decade focusing on the shortcomings with regard to constitutional recognition and accommodation displayed by the Spanish political system. The latter have been exacerbated by the reform process of Catalonia’s Statute of Autonomy (2006) and the subsequent judgement of Spain’s Constitutional Court regarding the aforementioned Statute (2010) (section 2). Finally, we present our conclusions by linking the Catalan case with theories of secession applied to plurinational contexts

Rules vs. political discretion: evidence from constitutionally guaranteed transfers to local governments in Brazil

Can rules be used to shield public resources from political interference? The Brazilian constitution and national tax code stipulate that revenue sharing transfers to municipal governments be determined by the size of counties in terms of estimated population. In this paper I document that the population estimates which went into the transfer allocation formula for the year 1991 were manipulated, resulting in significant transfer differentials over the entire 1990's. I test whether conditional on county characteristics that might account for the manipulation, center-local party alignment, party popularity and the extent of interparty fragmentation at the county level are correlated with estimated populations in 1991. Results suggest that revenue sharing transfers were targeted at right-wing national deputies in electorally fragmented counties as well as aligned local executives.

The "New Political Economy": Two Recent Books

This paper reviews two recent books on Political Economy by Allan Drazen and Torsten Persson and Guido Tabellini. It discusses some problems of the recent Political Economy literature.

Assessing the Political Viability of Labour Market Reform: The Case of Employment Protection

We analyze the political support for employment protection legislation. Unlike my previous work on the same topic, this paper pays a lot of attention to the role of obsolescence in the growth process. In voting in favour of employment protection, incumbent employees trade off lower living standards (because employment protection maintains workers in less productive activities) against longer job duration. The support for employment protection will then depend on the value of the latter relative to the cost of the former. We highlight two key deeterminants of this trade-off: first, the workers' bargaining power, second, the economy's growth rate-more precisely its rate of creative destruction.

Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.