Intelligent decision support for family financial planning

In today’s financial markets characterized by constantly changing tax laws and increasingly complex transactions, the demand for family financial planning (FFP) services is rising dramatically. However, the current trend to develop advisory systems that focus mainly on the financial or investment side fails to consider the whole picture of FFP. Separating financial or investment advice from legal and accounting advice may result in conflicting advice or important omissions that could lead to users suffering financial loss. In this paper, we propose a conceptual model for FFP decision-making process, followed by a novel architecture to support an aggregated FFP decision process by utilizing intelligentagents and Web-services technology. A prototype system for supporting FFP decision is presented to demonstrate the advances of the proposed Web-service multi-agentsbased system architecture and business value.

Impact of weather dependency on planning decisions in the australian national electricity market

A long-term planning method for the electricity market is to simulate market operation into the future. Outputs from market simulation include indicators for transmission augmentation and new generation investment. A key input to market simulations is demand forecasts. For market simulation purposes, regional demand forecasts for each half-hour interval of the forecasting horizon are required, and they must accurately represent realistic demand profiles and interregional demand relationships. In this paper, a demand model is developed to accurately model these relationships. The effects of uncertainty in weather patterns and inherent correlations between regional demands on market simulation results are presented. This work signifies the advantages of probabilistic modeling of demand levels when making market-based planning decisions.

The practice and process of delivering integration through strategic planning

This paper explains how strategic planning is able to deliver strategic integration within organizations. While communication and participation within planning processes are perceived to have an integrative effect, we argue that these effects are unlikely to arise simply from bringing people together. Rather, we suggest that, given the varying interests of actors in different business units, integration will only arise from active negotiations and compromises between these actors. The paper is based upon a case of strategic planning in a multinational that was attempting to develop greater strategic integration across Europe. Drawing upon an activity theory framework, we examine how a common strategy emerges over time through modifications to the planning process and to different actors’ roles within it. The findings are used to develop a process model that shows how different business unit characteristics of planning experience and relative power shape different experiences of communication and participation activities and different processes for achieving integration. The paper concludes with a discussion of how this process model contributes to the literature on strategic planning, political processes of strategy-making, and strategy-as-practice.

Strategic planning and performance:extending the debate

This article extends the debate regarding the relationship between strategic planning and performance. It addresses criticism of previous empirical studies that have largely investigated direct and bi-variate relationships, producing equivocal results. The current study investigates the mediating effects of four types of flexibility on the strategic planning and performance relationship. Flexibility is defined as the extent to which new and alternative decisions are generated and considered in strategic planning, allowing for positive organizational change and adaptation to environmental turbulence. Through investigating simultaneous equations in a structural equation model, we find that two types of flexibility mediate the relationship between strategic planning and financial performance, while the other two types mediate the relationship between strategic planning and non-financial performance. The results are new empirical insights that have not been previously reported.

Management processes in marketing planning

There has been concern in the literature about the adequacy of the traditional model of marketing planning, which focuses on what decisions should be made and not on how to make them. The aim of this article is a new conceptualisation that proposes key management processes about how marketing planning decisions are made in a dynamic context. The motives for this conceptualisation are to contribute to understanding by advancing the traditional model of marketing planning, to stimulate academic and practitioner debate about how marketing planning decisions are made, and to initiate new directions in marketing planning research. Two new competing models of marketing planning are developed, which address key management processes about how marketing planning decisions are made in a dynamic context, and research directions are proposed.

The impact of performance measurement in strategic planning

Purpose – To investigate the impact of performance measurement in strategic planning process. Design/methodology/approach – A large scale survey was conducted online with Warwick Business School alumni. The questionnaire was based on the Strategic Development Process model by Dyson. The questionnaire was designed to map the current practice of strategic planning and to determine its most influential factors on the effectiveness of the process. All questions were close ended and a seven-point Likert scale used. The independent variables were grouped into four meaningful factors by factor analysis (Varimax, coefficient of rotation 0.4). The factors produced were used to build regression models (stepwise) for the five assessments of strategic planning process. Regression models were developed for the totality of the responses, comparing SMEs and large organizations and comparing organizations operating in slowly and rapidly changing environments. Findings – The results indicate that performance measurement stands as one of the four main factors characterising the current practice of strategic planning. This research has determined that complexity coming from organizational size and rate of change in the sector creates variation in the impact of performance measurement in strategic planning. Large organizations and organizations operating in rapidly changing environments make greater use of performance measurement. Research limitations/implications – This research is based on subjective data, therefore the conclusions do not concern the impact of strategic planning process' elements on the organizational performance achievements, but on the success/effectiveness of the strategic planning process itself. Practical implications – This research raises a series of questions about the use and potential impact of performance measurement, especially in the categories of organizations that are not significantly influenced by its utilisation. It contributes to the field of performance measurement impact. Originality/value – This research fills in the gap literature concerning the lack of large scale surveys on strategic development processes and performance measurement. It also contributes in the literature of this field by providing empirical evidences on the impact of performance measurement upon the strategic planning process.

Strategic planning as communicative process

This paper looks at how a strategic plan is constructed through a communicative process. Drawing on Ricoeur’s concepts of decontextualization and recontextualization, we conceptualize strategic planning activities as being constituted through the iterative and recursive relationship of talk and text. Based on an in-depth case study, our findings show how multiple actors engage in a formal strategic planning process which is manifested in a written strategy document. This document is thus central in the iterative talk to text cycles. As individuals express their interpretations of the current strategic plan in talk, they are able to make amendments to the text that then shape future textual versions of the plan. This iterative cycle is repeated until a final plan is agreed. We develop our findings into a model of the communication process that explains how texts become more authoritative over time and, in doing so, how they inscribe power relationships and social order within organizations. These findings contribute to the literature on the purposes of largely institutionalized processes of strategic planning and to the literature on organization as a communications process.

Determining the influence of strategic planning's elements in its success

This paper presents the results of a multinational large-scale survey, investigating the current trends in strategic planning. The survey was conducted online using the Warwick Business School alumni database. Considering the development and implementation of strategy within a multi-process framework, the 'Strategic Development Process' model by Dyson and O'Brien (1998), using factor analysis, four distinct factors of strategic planning have been produced and with regression analysis, their impact on the success of strategic planning from a process point of view has been assessed. The results indicate that significant variation in practices involved is created by complexity either of the organizational size or environmental turbulence.

When do conservation planning methods deliver? Quantifying the consequences of uncertainty

The rapid global loss of biodiversity has led to a proliferation of systematic conservation planning methods. In spite of their utility and mathematical sophistication, these methods only provide approximate solutions to real-world problems where there is uncertainty and temporal change. The consequences of errors in these solutions are seldom characterized or addressed. We propose a conceptual structure for exploring the consequences of input uncertainty and oversimpli?ed approximations to real-world processes for any conservation planning tool or strategy. We then present a computational framework based on this structure to quantitatively model species representation and persistence outcomes across a range of uncertainties. These include factors such as land costs, landscape structure, species composition and distribution, and temporal changes in habitat. We demonstrate the utility of the framework using several reserve selection methods including simple rules of thumb and more sophisticated tools such as Marxan and Zonation. We present new results showing how outcomes can be strongly affected by variation in problem characteristics that are seldom compared across multiple studies. These characteristics include number of species prioritized, distribution of species richness and rarity, and uncertainties in the amount and quality of habitat patches. We also demonstrate how the framework allows comparisons between conservation planning strategies and their response to error under a range of conditions. Using the approach presented here will improve conservation outcomes and resource allocation by making it easier to predict and quantify the consequences of many different uncertainties and assumptions simultaneously. Our results show that without more rigorously generalizable results, it is very dif?cult to predict the amount of error in any conservation plan. These results imply the need for standard practice to include evaluating the effects of multiple real-world complications on the behavior of any conservation planning method.

Statnote 9: The one-way analysis of variance (random effects model)

There is an alternative model of the 1-way ANOVA called the 'random effects' model or ‘nested’ design in which the objective is not to test specific effects but to estimate the degree of variation of a particular measurement and to compare different sources of variation that influence the measurement in space and/or time. The most important statistics from a random effects model are the components of variance which estimate the variance associated with each of the sources of variation influencing a measurement. The nested design is particularly useful in preliminary experiments designed to estimate different sources of variation and in the planning of appropriate sampling strategies.

Intelligent execution monitoring and error analysis in planning involving processes

An intelligent agent, operating in an external world which cannot be fully described in its internal world model, must be able to monitor the success of a previously generated plan and to respond to any errors which may have occurred. The process of error analysis requires the ability to reason in an expert fashion about time and about processes occurring in the world. Reasoning about time is needed to deal with causality. Reasoning about processes is needed since the direct effects of a plan action can be completely specified when the plan is generated, but the indirect effects cannot. For example, the action `open tap' leads with certainty to `tap open', whereas whether there will be a fluid flow and how long it might last is more difficult to predict. The majority of existing planning systems cannot handle these kinds of reasoning, thus limiting their usefulness. This thesis argues that both kinds of reasoning require a complex internal representation of the world. The use of Qualitative Process Theory and an interval-based representation of time are proposed as a representation scheme for such a world model. The planning system which was constructed has been tested on a set of realistic planning scenarios. It is shown that even simple planning problems, such as making a cup of coffee, require extensive reasoning if they are to be carried out successfully. The final Chapter concludes that the planning system described does allow the correct solution of planning problems involving complex side effects, which planners up to now have been unable to solve.

A multivariate examination of the relationship between strategic planning and organisational performance

Strategic planning and more specifically, the impact of strategic planning on organisational performance has been the subject of significant academic interest since the early 1970's. However, despite the significant amount of previous work examining the relationship between strategic planning and organisational performance, a comprehensive literature review identified a number of areas where contributions to the domain of study could be made. In overview, the main areas for further study identified from the literature review were a) a further examination of both the dimensionality and conceptualisation of strategic planning and organisational performance and b) a further, multivariate, examination of the relationship between strategic planning and performance, to capture the newly identified dimensionality. In addition to the previously identified strategic planning and organisational performance constructs, a comprehensive literature based assessment was undertaken and five main areas were identified for further examination, these were a) organisational b) comprehensive strategic choice, c) the quality of strategic options generated, d) political behavior and e) implementation success. From this, a conceptual model incorporating a set of hypotheses to be tested was formulated. In order to test the conceptual model specified and also the stated hypotheses, data gathering was undertaken. The quantitative phase of the research involved a mail survey of senior managers in medium to large UK based organisations, of which a total of 366 fully useable responses were received. Following rigorous individual construct validity and reliability testing, the complete conceptual model was tested using latent variable path analysis. The results for the individual hypotheses and also the complete conceptual model were most encouraging. The findings, theoretical and managerial implications, limitations and directions for future research are discussed.