The time series convergence of dispersion in financial analysts' forecasts

Finansanalytiker har en stor betydelse för finansmarknaderna, speciellt igenom att förmedla information genom resultatprognoser. Typiskt är att analytiker i viss grad är oeniga i sina resultatprognoser, och det är just denna oenighet analytiker emellan som denna avhandling studerar. Då ett företag rapporterar förluster tenderar oenigheten gällande ett företags framtid att öka. På ett intuitivt plan är det lätt att tolka detta som ökad osäkerhet. Det är även detta man finner då man studerar analytikerrapporter - analytiker ser ut att bli mer osäkra då företag börjar gå med förlust, och det är precis då som även oenigheten mellan analytikerna ökar. De matematisk-teoretiska modeller som beskriver analytikers beslutsprocesser har däremot en motsatt konsekvens - en ökad oenighet analytiker emellan kan endast uppkomma ifall analytikerna blir säkrare på ett individuellt plan, där den drivande kraften är asymmetrisk information. Denna avhandling löser motsägelsen mellan ökad säkerhet/osäkerhet som drivkraft bakom spridningen i analytikerprognoser. Genom att beakta mängden publik information som blir tillgänglig via resultatrapporter är det inte möjligt för modellerna för analytikers beslutsprocesser att ge upphov till de nivåer av prognosspridning som kan observeras i data. Slutsatsen blir därmed att de underliggande teoretiska modellerna för prognosspridning är delvis bristande och att spridning i prognoser istället mer troligt följer av en ökad osäkerhet bland analytikerna, i enlighet med vad analytiker de facto nämner i sina rapporter. Resultaten är viktiga eftersom en förståelse av osäkerhet runt t.ex. resultatrapportering bidrar till en allmän förståelse för resultatrapporteringsmiljön som i sin tur är av ytterst stor betydelse för prisbildning på finansmarknader. Vidare används typiskt ökad prognosspridning som en indikation på ökad informationsasymmetri i redovisningsforskning, ett fenomen som denna avhandling därmed ifrågasätter.

In vitro antimicrobial activity of a new series of 1,4-naphthoquinones

The antibacterial activity of a series of 1,4-naphthoquinones was demonstrated. Disk diffusion tests were carried out against several Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria. The compound 5-amino-8-hydroxy-1,4-naphthoquinone was the most effective, presenting inhibition zones measuring 20 mm against staphylococci, streptococci and bacilli at 50 µg/ml. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and several clinical isolates of this bacterium were also inhibited. Naphthazarin, 5-acetamido-8-hydroxy-1,4-naphthoquinone, and 2,3-diamino-1,4-naphthoquinone were the next most active compounds. The minimal inhibitory concentration of the active compounds was determined against S. aureus, ranging from 30 to 125 µg/ml. All compounds presented a minimal bactericidal concentration higher than 500 µg/ml, indicating that their effect was bacteriostatic. The EC50, defined as the drug concentration that produces 50% of maximal effect, was 8 µg/ml for 5-amino-8-hydroxy-1,4-naphthoquinone against S. aureus, S. intermedius, and S. epidermidis. These results indicate an effective in vitro activity of 5-amino-8-hydroxy-1,4-naphthoquinone and encourage further studies for its application in antibiotic therapy.

Parameter identification in time series models

Time series analysis can be categorized into three different approaches: classical, Box-Jenkins, and State space. Classical approach makes a basement for the analysis and Box-Jenkins approach is an improvement of the classical approach and deals with stationary time series. State space approach allows time variant factors and covers up a broader area of time series analysis. This thesis focuses on parameter identifiablity of different parameter estimation methods such as LSQ, Yule-Walker, MLE which are used in the above time series analysis approaches. Also the Kalman filter method and smoothing techniques are integrated with the state space approach and MLE method to estimate parameters allowing them to change over time. Parameter estimation is carried out by repeating estimation and integrating with MCMC and inspect how well different estimation methods can identify the optimal model parameters. Identification is performed in probabilistic and general senses and compare the results in order to study and represent identifiability more informative way.

Sentinel node biopsy in breast cancer: results in a large series

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is an appropriate method for the evaluation of axillary status in cases of early breast cancer. We report our experience in treating cases evaluated using SLNB. We analyzed a total of 1192 cases assessed by means of SLNB from July 1999 to December 2007. SLNB processing was successfully completed in 1154 cases with the use of blue dye or radiolabeled 99mTc-Dextran-500, or both. Of these 1154 patients, 857 were N0(i-) (no regional lymph node metastasis, negative immunohistochemistry, IHC), 96 were N0(i+) (no regional lymph node metastasis histologically, positive IHC, no IHC cluster greater than 0.2 mm) and 201 were N1mi (greater than 0.2 mm, none greater than 2.0 mm). Most of the tumors (70%) were invasive ductal carcinomas and tumors were staged as T1 in 770 patients (65%). A total of 274 patients underwent SLNB and axillary dissections up to April 2003. The inclusion criteria were tumor size equal to or less than 3 cm in diameter, no clinically palpable axillary lymph nodes, no neoadjuvant therapy. In 19 cases, the SLN could not be identified intraoperatively. A false-negative rate of 11% and a negative predictive value of 88.2% were obtained for the 255 assessable patients. The overall concordance between SLNB and axillary lymph node status was 92%. SLNB sensitivity for nodes was 81% and specificity was 100%. The higher sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and lower false-negative rates of SLNB suggest that this method may be an appropriate alternative to total axillary dissection in early breast cancer patients.

Early detection of metabolic and energy disorders by thermal time series stochastic complexity analysis

Maintenance of thermal homeostasis in rats fed a high-fat diet (HFD) is associated with changes in their thermal balance. The thermodynamic relationship between heat dissipation and energy storage is altered by the ingestion of high-energy diet content. Observation of thermal registers of core temperature behavior, in humans and rodents, permits identification of some characteristics of time series, such as autoreference and stationarity that fit adequately to a stochastic analysis. To identify this change, we used, for the first time, a stochastic autoregressive model, the concepts of which match those associated with physiological systems involved and applied in male HFD rats compared with their appropriate standard food intake age-matched male controls (n=7 per group). By analyzing a recorded temperature time series, we were able to identify when thermal homeostasis would be affected by a new diet. The autoregressive time series model (AR model) was used to predict the occurrence of thermal homeostasis, and this model proved to be very effective in distinguishing such a physiological disorder. Thus, we infer from the results of our study that maximum entropy distribution as a means for stochastic characterization of temperature time series registers may be established as an important and early tool to aid in the diagnosis and prevention of metabolic diseases due to their ability to detect small variations in thermal profile.

A time series analysis of meteorological factors and hospital outpatient admissions for cardiovascular disease in the Northern district of Guizhou Province, China

Findings on the effects of weather on health, especially the effects of ambient temperature on overall morbidity, remain inconsistent. We conducted a time series study to examine the acute effects of meteorological factors (mainly air temperature) on daily hospital outpatient admissions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Zunyi City, China, from January 1, 2007 to November 30, 2009. We used the generalized additive model with penalized splines to analyze hospital outpatient admissions, climatic parameters, and covariate data. Results show that, in Zunyi, air temperature was associated with hospital outpatient admission for CVD. When air temperature was less than 10°C, hospital outpatient admissions for CVD increased 1.07-fold with each increase of 1°C, and when air temperature was more than 10°C, an increase in air temperature by 1°C was associated with a 0.99-fold decrease in hospital outpatient admissions for CVD over the previous year. Our analyses provided statistically significant evidence that in China meteorological factors have adverse effects on the health of the general population. Further research with consistent methodology is needed to clarify the magnitude of these effects and to show which populations and individuals are vulnerable.

Fifth series of historical documents : [All relating to the War of 1812].

Published under the auspices of "The Literary and Historical Society of Quebec".

Why are we still at war? : or, The American question considered ; in a series of essays rejected by the journalists as unpopular ; recommended to a candid perusal /

In the Pamphleteer, vol. 4, p. 551-576. London, 1814.

Why are we still at war? : or, The American question considered ; in a series of essays rejected by the journalists as unpopular ; recommended to a candid perusal

In the Pamphleteer, vol. 4, p. 551-576. London, 1814

Niagara River and Falls from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario : a series of one hundred and fifty-three original etchings (1886)

A portfolio of 50 folio and 103 vignette etchings, printed on fine china paper, which has been pressed into a sturdy hand-made paper. The plates were printed by J.H. Daniels of Boston in black, brown, sepia or blue ink. All prints are dated, numbered, and signed or initialed in the plate by Sangster, and the folio prints have pencil signatures. Vol. 1. Vignettes (nos. 1-53) -- vol. 2. Vignettes (nos. 54-103) -- vol. 3. Plates (vol. 1 and 2, nos. 1-50).

Niagara River and Falls from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario : a series of one hundred and fifty-three original etchings (1886) Vol.2

A portfolio of 50 folio and 103 vignette etchings, printed on fine china paper, which has been pressed into a sturdy hand-made paper. The plates were printed by J.H. Daniels of Boston in black, brown, sepia or blue ink. All prints are dated, numbered, and signed or initialed in the plate by Sangster, and the folio prints have pencil signatures. Vol. 1. Vignettes (nos. 1-53) -- vol. 2. Vignettes (nos. 54-103) -- vol. 3. Plates (vol. 1 and 2, nos. 1-50).