Would Fiscal Authorities in the EMU prefer to coordinate?

This article studies whether fiscal authorities would prefer to operate like in the current EMU or to coordinate according to the theoretical literature. The EMU approach will lead to higher volatility of interest rates, output, inflation and average budget deficits, but the SGP deficit target will be breached less often. Keywords: fiscal policy coordination, monetary union, Stability and Growth Pact. JEL No. E61, E63, F33, H0

The Politics of Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in Argentina

The search for political determinants of intergovernmental fiscal relations has shaped much of the recent literature on the economic viability of federalism. This study assesses the explanatory power of two competing views about intergovernmental transfers; one emphasizing the traditional neoclassical approach to federal-subnational fiscal relations and the other suggesting that transfers are contingent on the political fortunes and current political vulnerability of each level of government. The author tests these models using data from Argentina, a federation exhibiting one of the most decentralised fiscal systems in the world and severe imbalances in the territorial distribution of legislative and economic resources. It is shown that overrespresented provinces ruled by governors who belong to opposition parties can bring into play their political overrepresentation to attract shares of federal transfers beyond social welfare criteria and to shield themselves from unwanted reforms to increase fiscal co-responsibilty. This finding suggests that decision makers in federal countries must pay close heed to the need to synchronize institutional reforms and fiscal adjustment.

Histopatologia da infecção por Yersinia pestis em roedores de focos de peste do Nordeste brasileiro

O presente trabalho mostra a histopatologia da infecção pela Yersinia pestis, entre as diferentes espécies de roedores silvestres e comensais (cricetídeos, equimídeos, murídeos e cavídeos) que ocorrem na zona endêmica de peste do Nordeste do Brasil. Estes roedores foram encontrados naturalmente infectados nos campos ou inoculados experimentalmente no laboratório (vias percutânea, subcutânea ou picada de pulgas) com cepas locais e/ou estrangeiras de Yersiniapestis. Quase todos os animais, exceto alguns dos cavídeos, desenvolveram a forma bubosepticêmica da peste. Entre as lesões encontradas, a necrose coagulativa multifocal do fígado, a pneumonite intersticial aguda difusa e a atrofia linfoide do baço, podem, por sua constância, ser consideradas como os principais indicadores histológicos da infecção pestosa, embora estas lesões não sejam exclusivas da peste. A diversidade e a intensidade das lesões entre os Zygodontomys lasiurus pixuna, podem explicar a mortalidade elevada desta espécie e a disseminação da peste nos focos naturais do Nordeste brasileiro. Cricetídeos e murídeos mostraram alterações histopatológicas qualitativamente semelhantes. A resistência dos cavídeos à infecção pestosa foi evidenciada pela sobrevida desses roedores à fase aguda da infecção e pelo desenvolvimento de uma reação histiocitária interna, delimitando as áreas abscedadas. è possível que estas lesões crônicas abriguem bacilos virulentos, que permitirão a reinfecção periódica das pulgas e conseqüente reativação do processo epizoótico.

Progrillotia dollfusi sp. n. (Cestoda: Trypanorhyncha) parasito de pescada do litoral brasileiro

É descrita uma nova espécie de Trypanorhyncha, Progrillotia dollfusi sp. n., de pescadas do gênero Cynoscion (Sciaenidae). Os peixes mostraram-se intensamente parasitados. As características principais desta espécie são os dois botrídios, a armadura tipo pecilacanto dos ganchos e a armadura basal da probóscide.

The Total fiscal cost of indirect taxation: an approximation using Catalonia's recent input-output table

In this note we quantify to what extent indirect taxation influences and distorts prices. To do so we use the networked accounting structure of the most recent input-output table of Catalonia, an autonomous region of Spain, to model price formation. The role of indirect taxation is considered both from a classical value perspective and a more neoclassical flavoured one. We show that they would yield equivalent results under some basic premises. The neoclassical perspective, however, offers a bit more flexibility to distinguish among different tax figures and hence provide a clearer disaggregate picture of how an indirect tax ends up affecting, and by how much, the cost structure.

Fiscal insurance and debt management in OECD economies

Assuming the role of debt management is to provide hedging against fiscal shocks we consider three questions: i) what indicators can be used to assess the performance of debt management? ii) how well have historical debt management policies performed? and iii) how is that performance affected by variations in debt issuance? We consider these questions using OECD data on the market value of government debt between 1970 and 2000. Motivated by both the optimal taxation literature and broad considerations of debt stability we propose a range of performance indicators for debt management. We evaluate these using Monte Carlo analysis and find that those based on the relative persistence of debt perform best. Calculating these measures for OECD data provides only limited evidence that debt management has helped insulate policy against unexpected fiscal shocks. We also find that the degree of fiscal insurance achieved is not well connected to cross country variations in debt issuance patterns. Given the limited volatility observed in the yield curve the relatively small dispersion of debt management practices across countries makes little difference to the realised degree of fiscal insurance.

O foco brasileiro de oncocercose: novas observações feitas nas áreas dos rios Mucajaí e Catrimâni, Território de Roraima

Um novo inquérito para oncocercose, realizado em 1984, entre índios Yanomami da parte média dos rios Mucajaí e Catrimâni (Território de Roraima), mostrou que, decorridos vários anos das primeiras investigações - uma década no caso do rio Mucajaí - os índices de prevalência, nesses dois locais da periferia do foco brasileiro, não haviam sofrido alteração significativa. Levando-se em conta apenas os residentes nas aldeias ou malocas abrangidas pelo inquérito, a prevalência atingiu 3,1% nos índios do rio Mucajaí, enquanto ficou em zero nos do rio Catrimâni. Dada a presença contínua, nas referidas aldeias, de índios visitantes, altamente infectados, oriundos da parte central e mais elevada do território indígena - onde cerca de 90% doa adultos têm oncocercose - seria de esperar o achado de valores bem maiores (acima pelo menos daqueles encontrados anteriormente), caso um vetor apropiado estivesse presente na região. Simulium oyapockense s.1. é a única espécie antropofílica de simulídeo, em toda zona inferior da área ocupada pelos Yanomami (altitude ao redor de 200 metros), abundante o suficiente para constituir-se em transmissor da oncocercose. Sem dúvida, no entanto, trata-se de um mau vetor (como aliás já foi demonstrado experimentalmente para Mansonella ozzardi) ou, até mesmo, de espécie não vetora de Onchocerca volvulus, pois, de outra forma, os índices de prevalência na parte média dos rios Mucajaí e Catrimâni já teriam crescido durante o período assinalado. Para explicar as altas taxas alcançadas pela endemia na porção central e cheia de acidentes (altitude superior a 900 metros) do território Yanomami, há que se admitir a presença aí de um outro vetor, muito eficiente, cujos hábitos estariam ligados à região montanhosa da fronteira entre o Brasil e a Venezuela.

The Private and fiscal returns to schooling and the effect of public policies on private incentives to invest in education: a general framework and some results for the EU

This paper develops a comprehensive framework for the quantitative analysis of the private and fiscal returns to schooling and of the effect of public policies on private incentives to invest in education. This framework is applied to 14 member states of the European Union. For each of these countries, we construct estimates of the private return to an additional year of schooling for an individual of average attainment, taking into account the effects of education on wages and employment probabilities after allowing for academic failure rates, the direct and opportunity costs of schooling, and the impact of personal taxes, social security contributions and unemployment and pension benefits on net incomes. We also construct a set of effective tax and subsidy rates that measure the effects of different public policies on the private returns to education, and measures of the fiscal returns to schooling that capture the long-term effects of a marginal increase in attainment on public finances under conditions that approximate general equilibrium.

Estudo da ação do moluscocida (Bayluscide-SRB) da Dynatech R/D Company em lagos do nordeste brasileiro - Sergipe, Brasil

To study the action of molluscicide nine ponds were selected: 3 of them lying in Maruim municipality, 29 km far from north Aracaju, the State capital, and 6 ponds in Itabaianinha municipality, 118 km far from south Aracaju. This study was carried out for 16 months. Environmental parameters observed were those thought to have any influence on the planorbids and/or the molluscicide: water temperature, transparence, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, CO2, and the nutrients-phosphorus, nitrogen, potassium and calcium. Plancton microorganisms were also considered to observe Bayluscide action on them. SRB was used in a concentration of 6.25 kg per 1.000 [cubic metres] water, to achieve 1.0 ppm Bayluscide concentration according to the producer's instruction in Massachussett-USA.

Fiscal sustainability across government tiers

This paper analyses how fiscal adjustment comes about when both central and sub-national governments are involved in consolidation. We test sustainability of public debt with a fiscal rule for both the federal and regional government. Results for the German Länder show that lower tier governments bear a relatively smaller part of the burden of debt consolidation, if they consolidate at all. Most of the fiscal adjustment occurs via central government debt. In contrast, both the US federal and state levels contribute to consolidation of public finances.

The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability

This paper examines the issue of fiscal sustainability in emerging market countries and industrial countries. We highlight the importance of the time series properties of the primary surplus and debt, and find evidence of a positive long run relationship. Consequently we emphasise, that especially for emerging markets, it is important to recognise the implications of global capital market shocks for fiscal sustainability, a relationship which has hitherto been ignored in the empirical literature. Using a factor model we demonstrate that the relationship between deficit and debt is conditional upon a global factor and we suggest that this global factor is related to world-wide liquidity. We also demonstrate that this acts as a constraint on emerging market economies’ fiscal policy.

Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and Cyclical Factor Utilization

In a neoclassical growth model with monopolistic competition in the product market, the presence of cyclical factor utilization enhances the stabilization role of countercyclical taxes. The costs of varying capital utilization take the form of varying rates of depreciation, which in turn have amplifying effect on investment decisions as well as the volatility of most aggregate variables. This creates an additional channel through which taxes affect the economy, a channel that enhances the stabilization role of countercyclical taxes, with particularly strong effects in the labor market. However, in terms of welfare, countercyclical taxes are welfare inferior due to reduced precautionary saving motives.

Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Deep Habits

Recent work on optimal policy in sticky price models suggests that demand management through fiscal policy adds little to optimal monetary policy. We explore this consensus assignment in an economy subject to ‘deep’ habits at the level of individual goods where the counter-cyclicality of mark-ups this implies can result in government spending crowding-in private consumption in the short run. We explore the robustness of this mechanism to the existence of price discrimination in the supply of goods to the public and private sectors. We then describe optimal monetary and fiscal policy in our New Keynesian economy subject to the additional externality of deep habits and explore the ability of simple (but potentially nonlinear) policy rules to mimic fully optimal policy.

Scotland: A New Fiscal Settlement

Executive Summary Many commentators have criticised the strategy currently used to finance the Scottish Parliament – both the block grant system, and the small degree of fiscal autonomy devised in the Calman report and the UK government’s 2009 White Paper. Nevertheless, fiscal autonomy has now been conceded in principle. This paper sets out to identify formally what level of autonomy would be best for the Scottish economy and the institutional changes needed to support that arrangement. Our conclusions are in line with the Steel Commission: that significantly more fiscal powers need to be transferred to Scotland. But what we can then do, which the Steel Commission could not, is to give a detailed blueprint for how this proposal might be implemented in practice. We face two problems. The existing block grant system can and has been criticised from such a wide variety of points of view that it effectively has no credibility left. On the other hand, the Calman proposals (and the UK government proposals that followed) are unworkable because, to function, they require information that the policy makers cannot possibly have; and because, without borrowing for current activities, they contain no mechanism to reconcile contractual spending (most of the budget) with variable revenue flows – which is to invite an eventual breakdown. But in its attempt to fix these problems, the UK White Paper introduces three further difficulties: new grounds for quarrels between the UK and Scottish governments, a long term deflation bias, and a loss of devolution.

Subsidies as Optimal Fiscal Stimuli

In the theoretical macroeconomics literature, fiscal policy is almost uniformly taken to mean taxing and spending by a ‘benevolent government’ that exploits the potential aggregate demand externalities inherent in the imperfectly competitive nature of goods markets. Whilst shown to raise aggregate output and employment, these policies crowd-out private consumption and hence typically reduce welfare. In this paper we consider the use of ‘tax-and-subsidise’ instead of ‘taxand- spend’ policies on account of their widespread use by governments, even in the recent recession, to stimulate economic activity. Within a static general equilibrium macro-model with imperfectly competitive good markets we examine the effect of wage and output subsidies and show that, for a small open economy, positive tax and subsidy rates exist which maximise welfare, rendering no intervention as a suboptimal state. We also show that, within a two-country setting, a Nash non-cooperative symmetric equilibrium with positive tax and subsidy rates exists, and that cooperation between trading partners in setting these rates is more expansionary and leads to an improvement upon the non-cooperative solution.