Low birthweight and the risk of developing subsequent high blood pressure and/or dyslipidemia in childhood

The association between birthweight and blood pressure (BP), and birthweight and serum lipid concentrations at age 7 through 11 years was examined in 1446 black and white children. The prevalence ratio (with 95% confidence interval) for being in the race-, sex- and age-specific upper decile of diastolic BP in children born with low birthweight (LBW, $<$2500 grams) versus children with birthweight $\geq$2500 grams was for black boys, 2.66 (1.24-5.70). In the other race-sex groups for diastolic BP, and in all race-sex groups for systolic BP this ratio did not differ from one. Among white boys with LBW, but not in the other race-sex groups, higher than expected percentages of subjects were in the highest decile group of triglyceride concentrations (0.01 $<$ p $<$ 0.05). The prevalence ratio was 2.42 (1.19-4.91). When prematures were excluded only more than expected white girls with LBW were in the highest decile group of triglyceride concentrations. The prevalence ratio was 3.23 (1.16-9.00). Prevalence ratios for triglyceride concentrations in black boys and girls, and for LDL/HDL-C ratio, cholesterol and VLDL-C concentrations in all race-sex groups were not different from one in analyses including and in those excluding prematures. Mean triglyceride concentrations stratified by tertiles of Quetelet Index, race and sex showed a strongly positive association between triglyceride concentrations and Quetelet Index, and in the upper tertile of the Quetelet Index an association between LBW and raised triglyceride concentrations. Multiple linear regression analyses showed that after adjusting for sex, race and age present Quetelet Index (p $<$ 0.001) is a much stronger predictor of systolic and diastolic BP, and also of LDL-C/HDL-C ratio and triglyceride concentrations in this age group than birthweight (p $>$ 0.05). Thus, an association between LBW and subsequent risk for elevated BP was confirmed for diastolic BP in black boys, but not for the other race-sex groups, and not for systolic BP in any group. This is the first study finding an association between LBW and elevated triglyceride concentrations in boys (white and black) and girls (white). A follow-up study to assess whether the findings can be confirmed at adult age is recommended. ^

The role of serotonin in depression and clotting in the coronary artery disease population

Background: The mechanisms underlying the relationship between depression and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remain unclear. Platelet serotonin has been associated with both depression and coronary artery disease in stable outpatients. Understanding the association between depression and platelet serotonin, during ACS, may explain some of the acute cardiovascular events seen in some individuals with depression. ^ Objectives: This study was designed to evaluate whether levels of platelet serotonin, during ACS, differ between individuals who screen positive for depression and individuals who screen negative for depression and to determine if a dose-response relationship exists between depressive symptoms and platelet serotonin levels. ^ Methods: In this cross-sectional study, data was collected on 51 patients hospitalized for ACS. Multiple linear regression models were used to determine if a relationship exists between depression and platelet serotonin levels. ^ Results: Of the 51 ACS patients, 24 screened positive for depression and 27 screened negative for depression. Platelet serotonin levels were not significantly different between the depressed group (942.10 ± 461.3) and the non-depressed group (1192.41 ± 764.3) (p= .293 and β= -4.093) and a dose-response relationship between depressive symptoms and platelet serotonin levels was not found (p= .250 and β= -.254). ^ Discussion: In this study, a relationship between depression and platelet serotonin levels was not found. Future research should focus on gaining a better understanding of the variables that may influence platelet serotonin levels in the ACS population. ^

Identification of genetic variants that influence atherosclerosis in young persons

Atherosclerosis is widely accepted as a complex genetic phenotype and is the usual cause of cardiovascular disease, the world’s leading killer. Genetic factors have been proven to be important risk contributors for atherosclerosis and much work has been done to identify promising candidates that might play a role in the development of atherosclerosis. It is well known that many independent replications are needed to unequivocally establish a valid genotype-phenotype association across different populations before the findings are extended to clinical settings and to the expensive follow-up studies designed to identify causal genetic variants. Aiming to replicate the association with atherosclerosis in the Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth (PDAY) study, we assessed the relationship of 32 atherosclerosis candidate SNPs to atherosclerosis in the PDAY cohort, consisting of AA and EA young people aged 15-34 years who died of non-medical causes. Two association studies, a whole sample study and a 1:1 matched case control study were performed by use of multiple linear regression and logistic regression analyses, respectively. For the whole sample association study, 32 SNPs among 2,650 individuals (1,369 AA and 1,281 EA) were tested for the association with six early atherosclerosis phenotypes: abdominal aorta fatty streaks, abdominal aorta raised lesions, right coronary artery fatty streaks, right coronary artery raised lesions, thoracic aorta fatty streaks, and thoracic aorta raised lesions. For the matched case-control association study, 337 case-control paired samples were included; cases were chosen with the highest total raised lesion scores from the studied population, while controls were randomly selected from individuals that had no raised lesions and matched to cases by age, gender and race. Sixteen SNPs in 13 genes were found to be significantly associated with atherosclerosis in at least one of the PDAY association studies. Among these 16 findings: eight SNPs (rs9579646, rs6053733, rs3849150, rs10499903, rs2148079, rs5073691, rs10116277, and rs17228212) successfully replicated previous results, six SNPs (rs17222814, rs10811661, rs7028570, rs7291467, rs16996148 and rs10401969) were reported as new findings exclusive to our study, the last two of the 16 SNPs, rs501120 and rs6922269, showed either intriguing or conflicting result. SNP rs17222814 in ALOX5AP and SNP rs3849150 in LRRC18 were consistently associated with atherosclerosis in both prior and the two PDAY association studies. SNP rs3849150 was also identified to be highly correlated with a non-synonymous coding SNP, rs17772611, which may damage the protein (polyphen score = 0.996), suggesting that SNP rs17772611 may be the causal functional variant.^ In conclusion, our study added more support for the association of these candidate genes with atherosclerosis. SNPs rs3849150 and rs17772611 of LRRC18, as well as SNP rs17222814 of ALOX5AP, were the most significant findings from our study, and may be ranked among the best for further study.^

A comparison of worker risk of injury while working on fully automated side loaders and other residential collection trucks at a large solid waste collection company

The study aim was to determine whether using automated side loader (ASL) trucks in higher proportions compared to other types of trucks for residential waste collection results in lower injury rates (from all causes). The primary hypothesis was that the risk of injury to workers was lower for those who work with ASL trucks than for workers who work with other types of trucks used in residential waste collection. To test this hypothesis, data were collected from one of the nation’s largest companies in the solid waste management industry. Different local operating units (i.e. facilities) in the company used different types of trucks to varying degrees, which created a special opportunity to examine refuse collection injuries and illnesses and the risk reduction potential of ASL trucks.^ The study design was ecological and analyzed end-of-year data provided by the company for calendar year 2007. During 2007, there were a total of 345 facilities which provided residential services. Each facility represented one observation.^ The dependent variable – injury and illness rate, was defined as a facility’s total case incidence rate (TCIR) recorded in accordance with federal OSHA requirements for the year 2007. The TCIR is the rate of total recordable injury and illness cases per 100 full-time workers. The independent variable, percent of ASL trucks, was calculated by dividing the number of ASL trucks by the total number of residential trucks at each facility.^ Multiple linear regression models were estimated for the impact of the percent of ASL trucks on TCIR per facility. Adjusted analyses included three covariates: median number of hours worked per week for residential workers; median number of months of work experience for residential workers; and median age of residential workers. All analyses were performed with the statistical software, Stata IC (version 11.0).^ The analyses included three approaches to classifying exposure, percent of ASL trucks. The first approach included two levels of exposure: (1) 0% and (2) >0 - <100%. The second approach included three levels of exposure: (1) 0%, (2) ≥ 1 - < 100%, and (3) 100%. The third approach included six levels of exposure to improve detection of a dose-response relationship: (1) 0%, (2) 1 to <25%, (3) 25 to <50%, (4) 50 to <75%, (5) 75 to <100%, and (6) 100%. None of the relationships between injury and illness rate and percent ASL trucks exposure levels was statistically significant (i.e., p<0.05), even after adjustment for all three covariates.^ In summary, the present study shows that there is some risk reduction impact of ASL trucks but not statistically significant. The covariates demonstrated a varied yet more modest impact on the injury and illness rate but again, none of the relationships between injury and illness rate and the covariates were statistically significant (i.e., p<0.05). However, as an ecological study, the present study also has the limitations inherent in such designs and warrants replication in an individual level cohort design. Any stronger conclusions are not suggested.^

Physical properties of sediment cores from the Labrador Sea

Sediment core logs from six sediment cores in the Labrador Sea show millennial-scale climate variability during the last glacial by recording all Heinrich events and several major Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles. The same millennial-scale climate change is documented for surface-water d18O records of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (left coiled); hence the surface-water d18O record can be derived from sediment core logging by means of multiple linear regression, providing a paleoclimate proxy record at very high temporal resolution (70 yrs). For the Labrador Sea, sediment core logs contain important information about deep-water current velocities and also reflect the variable input of IRD from different sources as inferred from grain-size analysis, benthic d18O, the relation of density and p-wave velocity, and magnetic susceptibility. For the last glacial, faster deep-water currents which correspond to highs in sediment physical properties, occurred during iceberg discharge and lasted for a several centuries to a few millennia. Those enhanced currents might have contributed to increased production of intermediate waters during times of reduced production of North Atlantic Deep Water. Hudson Strait might have acted as a major supplier of detrital carbonate only during lowered sea level (greater ice extent). During coldest atmospheric temperatures over Greenland, deep-water currents increased during iceberg discharge in the Labrador Sea, then surface water freshened shortly after, while the abrupt atmospheric temperature rise happened after a larger time lag of >=1 kyr. The correlation implies a strong link and common forcing for atmosphere, sea surface, and deep water during the last glacial at millennial time scales but decoupling at orbital time scales.

Desarrollo de estándares de calidad para uvas Vitis vinifera L. cv. Malbec y Syrah

El objetivo del trabajo fue desarrollar estándares de calidad de uva basados en atributos físicos y químicos, capaces de predecir la calidad del vino. Se instaló una red de ensayos en Mendoza (Norte, Este y Valle de Uco), San Juan (Valle de Zonda), La Rioja (Chilecito), Catamarca y Salta (Valles Calchaquíes) (Argentina). Se ensayaron niveles de carga de uva (desbrote 30 y 50%, raleo 30 y 50% y testigo) en Malbec y Syrah. En la cosecha, las uvas fueron analizadas (tamaño baya, concentración azucarina, pH, antocianos, catequinas, taninos, fenoles totales) y vinificadas. Los vinos fueron analizados (alcohol, extracto seco, intensidad colorante, matiz, antocianos, catequinas, taninos, fenoles totales, color polimérico) y evaluados por un panel de degustadores. Empleando todos las variables de los vinos, mediante un análisis de componentes principales, se generaron dos índices que resumieron los atributos con mayor peso explicativo de la variabilidad observada (80%); ellos fueron: Riqueza Fenólica (RF, asociado a antocianos, taninos, catequinas, fenoles totales y concentración) y Peligro Oxidativo (PO, asociado a pH, matiz y tonalidad percibida). No existieron diferencias en cuanto a RF entre variedades ni entre niveles de producción de uva. Los vinos con RF mayor y PO menor se consideraron de mayor calidad. Las uvas cultivadas en zonas más frías tuvieron una mayor RF. En Malbec, las zonas frías y los bajos niveles productivos generaron un PO menor. Para cada variedad se desarrollaron predictores para RF y PO del vino. Se usó la regresión múltiple lineal paso a paso, seleccionando las variables de la uva con mayor poder predictivo. Se definieron las funciones de ajuste RFpred (Malbec R2 = 80%; Syrah R2 = 62%) y POpred (Malbec R2 = 80%; Syrah R2 = 62%). Los índices se tradujeron en estándares de calidad que mostraron concordancia entre uvas y vinos. La metodología puede ser válida para otras variedades tintas, pero debe ajustarse para cada caso. Los estándares permitirían asociar un precio a cada calidad y aumentar la transparencia del mercado.

Modelos de demanda potencial de viajeros en redes de transporte público : aplicaciones en el Metro de Madrid

Este trabajo propone una metodología basada en Sistemas de Información Geográfica para estimar la demanda de viajes en estaciones de redes de transporte público, tomando como ejemplo la red de metro de Madrid. Primero se emplea una serie de datos descriptivos para caracterizar la red, clasificar las estaciones y obtener una tipología de las mismas. Luego, con el objetivo de explicar y predecir los viajes (entradas a la red) se generan dos modelos: uno sencillo a partir de las tasas de penetración de uso del metro en función de la distancia (distance decay), y otro más complejo basado en un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple (MRLM) que incorpora variables relativas a la estación y su entorno (densidad, mezcla de usos, diseño urbano, presencia de modos competidores). Su aplicación muestra resultados alentadores, y se plantea como una alternativa a los clásicos modelos de cuatro etapas, más complejos y con un mayor coste económico.

Euphausiid respiration model revamped, link to model results

Euphausiids constitute major biomass component in shelf ecosystems and play a fundamental role in the rapid vertical transport of carbon from the ocean surface to the deeper layers during their daily vertical migration (DVM). DVM depth and migration patterns depend on oceanographic conditions with respect to temperature, light and oxygen availability at depth, factors that are highly dependent on season in most marine regions. Changes in the abiotic conditions also shape Euphausiid metabolism including aerobic and anaerobic energy production. Here we introduce a global krill respiration model which includes the effect of latitude (LAT), the day of the year of interest (DoY), and the number of daylight hours on the day of interest (DLh), in addition to the basal variables that determine ectothermal oxygen consumption (temperature, body mass and depth) in the ANN model (Artificial Neural Networks). The newly implemented parameters link space and time in terms of season and photoperiod to krill respiration. The ANN model showed a better fit (r**2=0.780) when DLh and LAT were included, indicating a decrease in respiration with increasing LAT and decreasing DLh. We therefore propose DLh as a potential variable to consider when building physiological models for both hemispheres. We also tested for seasonality the standard respiration rate of the most common species that were investigated until now in a large range of DLh and DoY with Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) or General Additive model (GAM). GAM successfully integrated DLh (r**2= 0.563) and DoY (r**2= 0.572) effects on respiration rates of the Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, yielding the minimum metabolic activity in mid-June and the maximum at the end of December. Neither the MLR nor the GAM approach worked for the North Pacific krill Euphausia pacifica, and MLR for the North Atlantic krill Meganyctiphanes norvegica remained inconclusive because of insufficient seasonal data coverage. We strongly encourage comparative respiration measurements of worldwide Euphausiid key species at different seasons to improve accuracy in ecosystem modelling.

(Table T1) Calcium carbonate content of sediments from ODP Leg 172 sites

Visual-domain diffuse reflectance data collected aboard the JOIDES Resolution with the Minolta spectrometer CM-2002 during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 172 have been used to estimate successfully the carbonate content of sediments. Calibration equations were developed for each site and for each lithostratigraphic unit (or subunit at Site 1063) using multiple linear regression on raw as well as pretreated reflectance spectra (i.e., first-order derivation and squaring of raw reflectance spectra) for a total of 4141 direct carbonate measurements. The root-mean-square errors of 4% to 7% are within the range of previous estimates using diffuse reflectance data and are acceptable for the general extensive range of carbonate contents (i.e., 0-70 wt%) that characterize sedimentation at Leg 172 sites.

(Table 2) Weight percent organic carbon from ODP Site 138-847

As the length of marine cores increases and sampling intervals decrease, the need for rapid and inexpensive means of determining sediment composition has become apparent. In this study we examine one potentially useful technique for assessing compositional changes in marine cores, diffuse reflectance spectrophotometry. We examined near-ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared reflectance spectra from five data sets. Each data set consists of calibration samples and test samples. The calibration samples' spectra were related to a sediment component using multiple linear regression. The resulting regression or calibration equations were then evaluated using the test samples. Calibration equations were written relating spectra to several sediment components incduding carbonate (Atlantic and east Pacific Rise ODP Site 847), organic carbon content (Atlantic and east Pacific Rise), and opal content (east Pacific Rise). The correlation coefficients for the regression equations ranged from a high of 0.99 for carbonate and opal at ODP Site 847 to a low of 0.97 for Atlantic carbonate indicating that spectral variations are highly correlated to sediment composition. All of the equations include a substantial number of variables from shorter visible and longer near ultraviolet wavelengths suggesting that these wavelengths are especially important for devices designed specifically to scan marine cores. Although equations for estimating organic and carbonate content appear independent of other sediment components, the opal equation is strongly dependent on carbonate content indicating that opal concentration is correlated to carbonate content. Tests of the calibration equations indicated that all our equations reasonably estimate the pattern of changes, either down core or in surface sediments. Where our spectral estimates have difficulty is with absolute values, frequently over or underestimating observed values by a substantial amount. Within these limitations diffuse reflectance spectrophotometry can be a useful tool for characterizing marine cores and as our understanding of the relationship between spectra and mineralogy improves so will estimates of absolute values.

Sources and proxy potential of long chain alkyl diols in lacustrine environments

Long chain 1,13- and 1,15-alkyl diols form the base of a number of recently proposed proxies used for climate reconstruction. However, the sources of these lipids and environmental controls on their distribution are still poorly constrained. We have analyzed the long chain alkyl diol (LCD) composition of cultures of ten eustigmatophyte species, with three species from different families grown at various temperatures, to identify the effect of species composition and growth temperature on the LCD distribution. The results were compared with the LCD distribution of sixty-two lake surface sediments, and with previously reported LCD distributions from marine environments. The different families within the Eustigmatophyceae show distinct LCD patterns, with the freshwater family Eustigmataceae most closely resembling LCD distributions in both marine and lake environments. Unlike the other two eustigmatophyte families analyzed (Monodopsidaceae and Goniochloridaceae), C28 and C30 1,13-alkyl diols and C30 and C32 1,15-alkyl diols are all relatively abundant in the family Eustigmataceae, while the mono-unsaturated C32 1,15-alkyl diol was below detection limit. In contrast to the marine environment, LCD distributions in lakes did not show a clear relationship with temperature. The Long chain Diol Index (LDI), a proxy previously proposed for sea surface temperature reconstruction, showed a relatively weak correlation (R2 = 0.33) with mean annual air temperature used as an approximation for annual mean surface temperature of the lakes. A much-improved correlation (R2 = 0.74, p-value<0.001) was observed applying a multiple linear regression analysis between LCD distributions and lake temperatures reconstructed using branched tetraether lipid distributions. The obtained regression model provides good estimates of temperatures for cultures of the family Eustigmataceae, suggesting that algae belonging to this family have an important role as a source for LCDs in lacustrine environments, or, alternatively, that the main sources of LCDs are similarly affected by temperature as the Eustigmataceae. The results suggest that LCDs may have the potential to be applicable as a palaeotemperature proxy for lacustrine environments, although further calibration work is still required.

Stable isotope stacks from GRIP and GISP ice cores

Recent efforts to link the isotopic composition of snow in Greenland with meteorological and climatic parameters have indicated that relatively local information such as observed annual temperatures from coastal Greenland sites, as well as more synoptic scale features such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the temperature seesaw between Jakobshaven, Greenland, and Oslo, Norway, are significantly correlated with d18O and dD values from the past few hundred years measured in ice cores. In this study we review those efforts and then use a new record of isotope values from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Greenland Ice Core Project sites at Summit, Greenland, to compare with meteorological and climatic parameters. This new record consists of six individual annually resolved isotopic records which have been average to produce a Summit stacked isotope record. The stacked record is significantly correlated with local Greenland temperatures over the past century (r=0.471), as well as a number of other records including temperatures and pressures from specific locations as well as temperature and pressure patterns such as the temperature seesaw and the North Atlantic Oscillation. A multiple linear regression of the stacked isotope record with a number of meteorological and climatic parameters in the North Atlantic region reveals that five variables contribute significantly to the variance in the isotope record: winter NAO, solar irradiance (as recorded by sunspot numbers), average Greenland coastal temperature, sea surface temperature in the moisture source region for Summit (30°-20°N), and the annual temperature seesaw between Jakobshaven and Oslo. Combined, these variables yield a correlation coefficient of r=0.71, explaining half of the variance in the stacked isotope record.

Estimación y evolución temporal de variables forestales con tecnología LiDAR en el Valle de la Fuenfría (Cercedilla, Madrid)

Este estudio profundiza en la estimación de variables forestales a partir de información LiDAR en el Valle de la Fuenfría (Cercedilla, Madrid). Para ello se dispone de dos vuelos realizados con sensor LiDAR en los años 2002 y 2011 y en el invierno de 2013 se ha realizado un inventario de 60 parcelas de campo. En primer lugar se han estimado seis variables dasométricas (volumen, área basimétrica, biomasa total, altura dominante, densidad y diámetro medio cuadrático) para 2013, tanto a nivel de píxel como a nivel de rodal y monte. Se construyeron modelos de regresión lineal múltiple que permitieron estimar con precisión dichas variables. En segundo lugar, se probaron diferentes métodos para la estimación de la distribución diamétrica. Por un lado, el método de predicción de percentiles y, por otro lado, el método de predicción de parámetros. Este segundo método se probó para una función Weibull simple, una función Weibull doble y una combinación de ambas según la distribución que mejor se ajustaba a cada parcela. Sin embargo, ninguno de los métodos ha resultado suficientemente válido para predecir la distribución diamétrica. Por último se estimaron el crecimiento en volumen y área basimétrica a partir de la comparación de los vuelos del 2002 y 2011. A pesar de que la tecnología LiDAR era diferente y solo se disponía de un inventario completo, realizado en 2013, los modelos construidos presentan buenas bondades de ajuste. Asimismo, el crecimiento a nivel de pixel se ha mostrado estar relacionado de forma estadísticamente significativa con la pendiente, orientación y altitud media del píxel. ABSTRACT This project goes in depth on the estimation of forest attributes by means of LiDAR data in Fuenfria’s Valley (Cercedilla, Madrid). The available information was two LiDAR flights (2002 and 2011) and a forest inventory consisting of 60 plots (2013). First, six different dasometric attributes (volume, basal area, total aboveground biomass, top height, density and quadratic mean diameter) were estimated in 2013 both at a pixel, stand and forest level. The models were developed using multiple linear regression and were good enough to predict these attributes with great accuracy. Second, the measured diameter distribution at each plot was fitted to a simple and a double Weibull distribution and different methods for its estimation were tested. Neither parameter prediction method nor percentile prediction method were able to account for the diameter distribution. Finally, volume and top height growths were estimated comparing 2011 LiDAR flight with 2002 LiDAR flight. Even though the LiDAR technology was not the same and there was just one forest inventory with sample plots, the models properly explain the growth. Besides, growth at each pixel is significantly related to its average slope, orientation and altitude.

Modelo del sistema de gestión de la calidad y el desempeño organizacional en la producción de petróleo

El proceso de cambio de una sociedad industrial a una sociedad del conocimiento, que experimenta el mundo globalizado en el siglo XXI, induce a las empresas y organizaciones a desarrollar ventajas competitivas y sostenibles basadas en sus activos intangibles, entre los cuales destacan los sistemas de gestión en general y los sistemas de gestión de la calidad (SGC) en particular. Las organizaciones dedicadas a la producción de petróleo están influenciadas por dicha tendencia. El petróleo es un recurso natural con reservas limitadas, cuya producción y consumo ha crecido progresivamente, aportando la mayor cuota (35 %) del total de la energía que se consume en el mundo contemporáneo, aporte que se mantendrá hasta el año 2035, según las previsiones más conservadoras. Por tanto, se hace necesario desarrollar modelos de producción innovadores, que contribuyan a la mejora del factor de recobro de los yacimientos y de la vida útil de los mismos, al tiempo que satisfagan los requerimientos de producción y consumo diarios de los exigentes mercados globales. El objeto de esta investigación es el desarrollo de un modelo de gestión de la calidad y su efecto en el desempeño organizacional, a través del efecto mediador de los constructos satisfacción del cliente interno y gestión del conocimiento en la producción de petróleo. Esta investigación de carácter explicativo, no experimental, transeccional y ex-postfacto, se realizó en la región petrolífera del lago de Maracaibo, al occidente de Venezuela, la cual tiene más de 70 años en producción y cuenta con yacimientos maduros. La población objeto de estudio fue de 369 trabajadores petroleros, quienes participaron en las mesas técnicas de la calidad, durante los meses de mayo y julio del año 2012, los cuales en su mayoría están en proceso de formación como analistas, asesores y auditores de los SGC. La técnica de muestreo aplicada fue de tipo aleatorio simple, con una muestra de 252 individuos. A la misma se le aplicó un cuestionario diseñado ad hoc, el cual fue validado por las técnicas de juicio de expertos y prueba piloto. El procedimiento de investigación se realizó a través de una secuencia, que incluyó la elaboración de un modelo teórico, basado en la revisión del estado del arte; un modelo factorial, sobre la base del análisis factorial de los datos de la encuesta; un modelo de regresión lineal, elaborado a través del método de regresión lineal simple y múltiple; un modelo de análisis de sendero, realizado con el software Amos 20 SPSS y finalmente, un modelo informático, realizado con el simulador Vensim PLE v.6.2. Los resultados obtenidos indican que el modelo teórico se transformó en un modelo empírico, en el cual, la variable independiente fue el SGC, la variable mediadora fue la integración de las dimensiones eliminación de la no conformidad, satisfacción del cliente interno y aprendizaje organizacional (ENCSCIAO) y la variable respuesta la integración de las dimensiones desempeño organizacional y aprendizaje organizacional (DOOA). Se verificó el efecto mediador del ENSCIAO sobre la relación SGC-DOOA con una bondad del ajuste, del 42,65%. En el modelo de regresión múltiple se encontró que las variables determinantes son eliminación de la no conformidad (ENC), conocimiento adquirido (CA) y conocimiento espontáneo (CE), lo cual fue corroborado con el modelo de análisis de sendero. El modelo informático se desarrolló empleando datos aproximados de una unidad de producción tipo, generándose cuatro escenarios; siendo el más favorable, aquel en el cual se aplicaba el SGC y variables relacionadas, reduciendo la desviación de la producción, incrementando el factor de recobro y ampliando la vida útil del yacimiento. Se concluye que la aplicación del SGC y constructos relacionados favorece el desempeño y la producción de las unidades de explotación de yacimientos petrolíferos maduros. Los principales aportes de la tesis son la obtención de un modelo de gestión de la producción de petróleo en yacimientos maduros, basado en los SGC. Asimismo, el desarrollo de un concepto de gestión de la calidad asociado a la reducción de la desviación de la producción petrolífera anual, al incremento del factor de recobro y al aumento de la vida útil del yacimiento. Las futuras líneas de investigación están orientadas a la aplicación del modelo en contextos reales y específicos, para medir su impacto y realizar los ajustes pertinentes. ABSTRACT The process of change from an industrial society to a knowledge-based society, which undergoes the globalized world in the twenty-first century, induces companies and organizations to develop a sustainable and competitive advantages based on its intangible assets, among which are noteworthy the management systems in general and particularly the quality management systems (QMS). Organizations engaged in oil production are influenced by said trend. Oil is a natural resource with limited reserves, where production and consumption has grown progressively, providing the largest share (35%) of the total energy consumed in the contemporary world, a contribution that will remain until the year 2035 according to the more conservative trust estimations. Therefore, it becomes necessary to develop innovative production models which contribute with the improvement of reservoirs´ recovery factor and the lifetime thereof, while meeting the production requirements and daily consumption of demanding global markets. The aim of this research is to develop a model of quality management and its effect on organizational performance through the mediator effect of the constructs, internal customer satisfaction and knowledge management in oil production. This research of explanatory nature, not experimental, transactional and expos-facto was carried out in the oil-region of Maracaibo Lake located to the west of Venezuela, which has more than 70 years in continuous production and has mature reservoirs. The population under study was 369 oil workers who participated in the technical quality workshops, during the months of May and July of 2012, the majority of which were in the process of training as analysts, consultants and auditors of the QMS. The sampling technique applied was simple random type. To a sample of 252 individuals of the population it was applied an ad hoc designed questionnaire, which was validated by the techniques of expert judgment and pilot test. The research procedure was performed through a sequence, which included the elaboration of a theoretical model, based on the review of the state of the art; a factorial model with based on factorial analysis of the survey data; a linear regression model, developed through the method of simple and multiple linear regression; a structural equation model, made with software °Amos 20 SPSS° and finally, a computer model, performed with the simulator Vensim PLE v.6.2. The results indicate that the theoretical model was transformed into an empirical model, in which the independent variable was the QMS, the mediator variable was the integration of the dimensions: elimination of non-conformity, internal customer satisfaction and organizational learning (ENCSCIAO) and the response variable the integration of the dimensions, organizational performance and learning organizational (DOOA). ENSCIAO´s mediator effect on the relation QMS-DOOA was verified with a goodness of fit of 42,65%. In the multiple regression model was found to be the determining variables are elimination of nonconformity (ENC), knowledge acquired (CA) and spontaneous knowledge (EC), which was verified with the structural equation model. The computer model was developed based on approximate data of an oil production unit type, creating four (04) scenarios; being the most favorable, that one which it was applied the QMS and related variables, reducing the production deviation, increasing the recovery factor and extending the lifetime of the reservoir. It is concluded that QMS implementation powered with the related constructs, favors performance and production of mature oilfield of exploitation reservoirs units. The main contributions of this thesis are obtaining a management model for oil production in mature oilfields, based on QMS. In addition, development of a concept of quality associated to reduce the annual oil production deviation, increase the recovery factor and increase oilfield lifetime. Future lines of research are oriented to the implementation of this model in real and specific contexts to measure its impact and make the necessary adjustments that might take place.

Uncertainties in the modal estimation from output-only data in civil structures

Cualquier estructura vibra según unas frecuencias propias definidas por sus parámetros modales (frecuencias naturales, amortiguamientos y formas modales). A través de las mediciones de la vibración en puntos clave de la estructura, los parámetros modales pueden ser estimados. En estructuras civiles, es difícil excitar una estructura de manera controlada, por lo tanto, las técnicas que implican la estimación de los parámetros modales sólo registrando su respuesta son de vital importancia para este tipo de estructuras. Esta técnica se conoce como Análisis Modal Operacional (OMA). La técnica del OMA no necesita excitar artificialmente la estructura, atendiendo únicamente a su comportamiento en servicio. La motivación para llevar a cabo pruebas de OMA surge en el campo de la Ingeniería Civil, debido a que excitar artificialmente con éxito grandes estructuras no sólo resulta difícil y costoso, sino que puede incluso dañarse la estructura. Su importancia reside en que el comportamiento global de una estructura está directamente relacionado con sus parámetros modales, y cualquier variación de rigidez, masa o condiciones de apoyo, aunque sean locales, quedan reflejadas en los parámetros modales. Por lo tanto, esta identificación puede integrarse en un sistema de vigilancia de la integridad estructural. La principal dificultad para el uso de los parámetros modales estimados mediante OMA son las incertidumbres asociadas a este proceso de estimación. Existen incertidumbres en el valor de los parámetros modales asociadas al proceso de cálculo (internos) y también asociadas a la influencia de los factores ambientales (externas), como es la temperatura. Este Trabajo Fin de Máster analiza estas dos fuentes de incertidumbre. Es decir, en primer lugar, para una estructura de laboratorio, se estudian y cuantifican las incertidumbres asociadas al programa de OMA utilizado. En segundo lugar, para una estructura en servicio (una pasarela de banda tesa), se estudian tanto el efecto del programa OMA como la influencia del factor ambiental en la estimación de los parámetros modales. Más concretamente, se ha propuesto un método para hacer un seguimiento de las frecuencias naturales de un mismo modo. Este método incluye un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple que permite eliminar la influencia de estos agentes externos. A structure vibrates according to some of its vibration modes, defined by their modal parameters (natural frequencies, damping ratios and modal shapes). Through the measurements of the vibration at key points of the structure, the modal parameters can be estimated. In civil engineering structures, it is difficult to excite structures in a controlled manner, thus, techniques involving output-only modal estimation are of vital importance for these structure. This techniques are known as Operational Modal Analysis (OMA). The OMA technique does not need to excite artificially the structure, this considers its behavior in service only. The motivation for carrying out OMA tests arises in the area of Civil Engineering, because successfully artificially excite large structures is difficult and expensive. It also may even damage the structure. The main goal is that the global behavior of a structure is directly related to their modal parameters, and any variation of stiffness, mass or support conditions, although it is local, is also reflected in the modal parameters. Therefore, this identification may be within a Structural Health Monitoring system. The main difficulty for using the modal parameters estimated by an OMA is the uncertainties associated to this estimation process. Thus, there are uncertainties in the value of the modal parameters associated to the computing process (internal) and the influence of environmental factors (external), such as the temperature. This Master’s Thesis analyzes these two sources of uncertainties. That is, firstly, for a lab structure, the uncertainties associated to the OMA program used are studied and quantified. Secondly, for an in-service structure (a stress-ribbon footbridge), both the effect of the OMA program and the influence of environmental factor on the modal parameters estimation are studied. More concretely, a method to track natural frequencies of the same mode has been proposed. This method includes a multiple linear regression model that allows to remove the influence of these external agents.