936 resultados para leave one out cross validation


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A current topic in Swedish schools is the use of computer games and gaming. One reason is because computers are becoming more and more integrated into the schools, and the technology plays a large role in the everyday lives of the pupils. Since teachers should integrate pupils’ interests in the formal teaching, it is of interest to know what attitudes teachers have towards gaming. Therefore the aim of this empirical study is to gain an insight into the attitudes Swedish primary teachers have towards online and offline computer games in the EFL classroom. An additional aim is to investigate to what extent teachers use games. Five interviews were conducted with teachers in different Swedish schools in a small to medium-sized municipality. After the interviews were transcribed, the results were analyzed and discussed in relation to relevant research and the sociocultural theory. The results show that teachers are positive towards games and gaming, mostly because gaming often contains interaction with others and learning from peers is a main component in sociocultural theory. However, only one out of the five participants had at some point used games. The conclusion is that teachers are unsure about how to use games in their teaching and that training and courses in this area would be valuable. More research is needed within this area, and it would be of value to investigate what suggested courses would contain and also to investigate exactly how games can be used in teaching.

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Research objectives Poker and responsible gambling both entail the use of the executive functions (EF), which are higher-level cognitive abilities. The main objective of this work was to assess if online poker players of different ability show different performances in their EF and if so, which functions are the most discriminating ones. The secondary objective was to assess if the EF performance can predict the quality of gambling, according to the Gambling Related Cognition Scale (GRCS), the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) and the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI). Sample and methods The study design consisted of two stages: 46 Italian active players (41m, 5f; age 32±7,1ys; education 14,8±3ys) fulfilled the PGSI in a secure IT web system and uploaded their own hand history files, which were anonymized and then evaluated by two poker experts. 36 of these players (31m, 5f; age 33±7,3ys; education 15±3ys) accepted to take part in the second stage: the administration of an extensive neuropsychological test battery by a blinded trained professional. To answer the main research question we collected all final and intermediate scores of the EF tests on each player together with the scoring on the playing ability. To answer the secondary research question, we referred to GRCS, PGSI and SOGS scores.  We determined which variables that are good predictors of the playing ability score using statistical techniques able to deal with many regressors and few observations (LASSO, best subset algorithms and CART). In this context information criteria and cross-validation errors play a key role for the selection of the relevant regressors, while significance testing and goodness-of-fit measures can lead to wrong conclusions.   Preliminary findings We found significant predictors of the poker ability score in various tests. In particular, there are good predictors 1) in some Wisconsin Card Sorting Test items that measure flexibility in choosing strategy of problem-solving, strategic planning, modulating impulsive responding, goal setting and self-monitoring, 2) in those Cognitive Estimates Test variables related to deductive reasoning, problem solving, development of an appropriate strategy and self-monitoring, 3) in the Emotional Quotient Inventory Short (EQ-i:S) Stress Management score, composed by the Stress Tolerance and Impulse Control scores, and in the Interpersonal score (Empathy, Social Responsibility, Interpersonal Relationship). As for the quality of gambling, some EQ-i:S scales scores provide the best predictors: General Mood for the PGSI; Intrapersonal (Self-Regard; Emotional Self-Awareness, Assertiveness, Independence, Self-Actualization) and Adaptability  (Reality Testing, Flexibility, Problem Solving) for the SOGS, Adaptability for the GRCS. Implications for the field Through PokerMapper we gathered knowledge and evaluated the feasibility of the construction of short tasks/card games in online poker environments for profiling users’ executive functions. These card games will be part of an IT system able to dynamically profile EF and provide players with a feedback on their expected performance and ability to gamble responsibly in that particular moment. The implementation of such system in existing gambling platforms could lead to an effective proactive tool for supporting responsible gambling. 

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Jakarta is vulnerable to flooding mainly caused by prolonged and heavy rainfall and thus a robust hydrological modeling is called for. A good quality of spatial precipitation data is therefore desired so that a good hydrological model could be achieved. Two types of rainfall sources are available: satellite and gauge station observations. At-site rainfall is considered to be a reliable and accurate source of rainfall. However, the limited number of stations makes the spatial interpolation not very much appealing. On the other hand, the gridded rainfall nowadays has high spatial resolution and improved accuracy, but still, relatively less accurate than its counterpart. To achieve a better precipitation data set, the study proposes cokriging method, a blending algorithm, to yield the blended satellite-gauge gridded rainfall at approximately 10-km resolution. The Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP, 0.1⁰×0.1⁰) and daily rainfall observations from gauge stations are used. The blended product is compared with satellite data by cross-validation method. The newly-yield blended product is then utilized to re-calibrate the hydrological model. Several scenarios are simulated by the hydrological models calibrated by gauge observations alone and blended product. The performance of two calibrated hydrological models is then assessed and compared based on simulated and observed runoff.

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Collective bargaining, it is widely claimed, has been on the increase in Brazil since the late 1970s. This is seen as part of a broader change in Brazilian industrial relations towards a hybrid system of interest representation, in which elements of both the old state corporatism and pluralism now coexist. However, there is little or no systematic empirical evidence available to support this conclusion. This thesis addresses the question of the strengthening of collective bargaining as a method of job regulation in Brazil by providing a detailed empirical study. The questions of this study are: (a) how important has collective bargaining become in establishing provisions on the terms and conditions of the employment relationship which are not simply reproducing rules established via state regulation?; and (b) what factors accounted for changes in the content of these provisions? An analysis of 10,734 provisions in 287 collective agreements in manufacturing industries in the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre, the capital of the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, was carried out for the period of 1978-95. This analysis offers support for the thesis that the significance of collective bargaining has increased. It shows that: (a) most substantive provisions created rules that were not established in other forms of regulation; (b) provisions that replicate the contents of regulatory legislation accounted for one out of seven substantive provisions, but in spite of being a copy of the law, these provisions are not entirely neutral for job regulation; (c) collective agreements also laid down substantive provisions benefiting employers, and not simply employees; and (d) the pace of change in bargaining outcomes oscillated with changes in the economic, legal and judicial contexts. This pace of change was mostly affected by (i) the rate of unemployment, (ii) the degree of openness of the economy to foreign competition, (iii) the capacity of employers to pass on costs to costumers, (iv) stabilisation policies aimed at curbing inflation, (v) the Federal Constitution made in 1988, (vi) the official rate of minimum wages, and (vii) the conduct of the labour judicial system in settling collective disputes.

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Modelos para detecção de fraude são utilizados para identificar se uma transação é legítima ou fraudulenta com base em informações cadastrais e transacionais. A técnica proposta no estudo apresentado, nesta dissertação, consiste na de Redes Bayesianas (RB); seus resultados foram comparados à técnica de Regressão Logística (RL), amplamente utilizada pelo mercado. As Redes Bayesianas avaliadas foram os classificadores bayesianos, com a estrutura Naive Bayes. As estruturas das redes bayesianas foram obtidas a partir de dados reais, fornecidos por uma instituição financeira. A base de dados foi separada em amostras de desenvolvimento e validação por cross validation com dez partições. Naive Bayes foram os classificadores escolhidos devido à simplicidade e a sua eficiência. O desempenho do modelo foi avaliado levando-se em conta a matriz de confusão e a área abaixo da curva ROC. As análises dos modelos revelaram desempenho, levemente, superior da regressão logística quando comparado aos classificadores bayesianos. A regressão logística foi escolhida como modelo mais adequado por ter apresentado melhor desempenho na previsão das operações fraudulentas, em relação à matriz de confusão. Baseada na área abaixo da curva ROC, a regressão logística demonstrou maior habilidade em discriminar as operações que estão sendo classificadas corretamente, daquelas que não estão.

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Increasing levels of sedentarism and obesity, along with advances in sensor technologies have instigated a market for wearable activity trackers, electronic devices that sense users’ physical activity levels with the goals of self-monitoring and behaviour change. Nowadays, activity trackers are one of the most desirable technologies, making up for a market of over $230 million in 2013. However, despite the spike of users’ interest, activity trackers have been shown to lose their appeal over time, with a recent survey suggesting that one out of three users discard the tracker in the course of the first six months of use. The question we pose is: how can we design activity tracker so that users’ interests is sustained over the long term? Our design approach focuses on contextualising physical activity. We do this through sensing users’ locations and activities (such as being still, walking or commuting through a car, bus or other means) and thus providing innovative ways of presenting feedback on users. This thesis presents the design and evaluation of WalkNRide, a physical activity tracker for Google Android. Through a longitudinal field study of WalkNRide, we attempt to inquire into the factors that drive the adoption (or non-adoption) of the tool as well as the ways in which the use of the tool contributes towards habit formation.

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Allergic asthma represents an important public health issue, most common in the paediatric population, characterized by airway inflammation that may lead to changes in volatiles secreted via the lungs. Thus, exhaled breath has potential to be a matrix with relevant metabolomic information to characterize this disease. Progress in biochemistry, health sciences and related areas depends on instrumental advances, and a high throughput and sensitive equipment such as comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography–time of flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC–ToFMS) was considered. GC × GC–ToFMS application in the analysis of the exhaled breath of 32 children with allergic asthma, from which 10 had also allergic rhinitis, and 27 control children allowed the identification of several hundreds of compounds belonging to different chemical families. Multivariate analysis, using Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis in tandem with Monte Carlo Cross Validation was performed to assess the predictive power and to help the interpretation of recovered compounds possibly linked to oxidative stress, inflammation processes or other cellular processes that may characterize asthma. The results suggest that the model is robust, considering the high classification rate, sensitivity, and specificity. A pattern of six compounds belonging to the alkanes characterized the asthmatic population: nonane, 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethylheptane, decane, 3,6-dimethyldecane, dodecane, and tetradecane. To explore future clinical applications, and considering the future role of molecular-based methodologies, a compound set was established to rapid access of information from exhaled breath, reducing the time of data processing, and thus, becoming more expedite method for the clinical purposes.

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O Centro de Aqüicultura, Unesp, Jaboticabal, SP, Brasil, recebeu peixes para diagnose, os quais apresentavam aglomeração nas bordas dos viveiros e na entrada da água. Dos 194 casos diagnosticados, 53 apresentavam estruturas brancas circulares ou ovais, imóveis, medindo 162 mm de diâmetro, identificadas como o dinoflagelado Piscinoodinium pillulare. em 34 casos, os parasitos estavam presentes nas brânquias, em 2 casos, no corpo e em 9 casos, em ambos. Dos 53 casos observados, 31 eram o híbrido tambacu; 7, o Piaractus mesopotamicus; 6, o Colossoma macropomum; 5, o Leporinus macrocephalus; 3, o Oreochromis niloticus; e 1, o Prochilodus lineatus. Os peixes apresentaram aumento da produção de muco no corpo e nas brânquias e equimoses no pedúnculo caudal e nos opérculos. As brânquias também apresentaram palidez, congestão e petéquias. A histopatologia revelou a presença de grande número de trofontes situados entre as lamelas secundárias, fixados ou não ao epitélio. As lamelas primárias mostraram hemorragias intersticiais, severa hiperplasia do epitélio e das células caliciformes e infiltrado inflamatório. O presente trabalho é o primeiro relato de P. pillulare no Brasil e enfatiza a importância dos dinoflagelados, que causaram significativas perdas econômicas entre 1995 e 1997.

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Este trabalho foi realizado com o objetivo de avaliar o ganho de peso de bovinos mantidos em pastagens de Brachiaria brizantha cv. Marandu submetidos a três estratégias de suplementação no período das águas e da seca de 2003 e águas de 2004. Os tratamentos consistiram da suplementação diária (SD), em dias alternados (DA) e de segunda à sexta-feira (SF). Foram utilizados 24 bovinos mestiços com peso inicial de 230 kg. Os animais foram pesados individualmente sem jejum, em intervalos de 28 dias. O delineamento adotado foi o inteiramente casualizado, com três tratamentos e oito repetições. Não houve diferença no ganho de peso dos animais, sendo obtidos valores médios de 0,76; 0,71 e 0,74 kg/dia no período das águas de 2003, de 0,57; 0,51 e 0,54 kg/dia na seca do mesmo ano e de 0,61; 0,62 e 0,57 kg/dia no período das águas de 2004 nos tratamentos SD, da e SF, respectivamente. A redução na freqüência de suplementação pode representar uma opção para o produtor visando à redução dos custos do fornecimento da alimentação, pois permite maior racionalização da mão-de-obra na propriedade e não afeta o desempenho animal.

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O presente trabalho teve como objetivos avaliar os sinais clínicos, as concentrações do sulfeto de hidrogênio ruminal e as alterações anatomopatológicas associadas à intoxicação experimental por enxofre em bovinos. Foram utilizados dez bezerros mestiços leiteiros, sendo que quatro bovinos ingeriram ração sem sulfato de sódio (G1) e seis consumiram ração com sulfato de sódio (G2). Exames clínicos (temperatura retal, frequência cardíaca e respiratória e motricidade ruminal) e laboratoriais (hemograma, fibrinogênio, proteína plasmática, pH do fluido ruminal, concentração do sulfeto de hidrogênio ruminal, líquido cerebrospinal e histopatológico) foram realizados. A temperatura retal, frequência cardíaca, hemograma, fibrinogênio, proteína plasmática, pH do fluido ruminal e os valores do líquido cerebrospinal estavam dentro dos valores de referência para a espécie. Taquipnéia, hipomotricidade ruminal e elevados valores de sulfeto de hidrogênio ruminal foram observados nos bezerros do grupo G2. Um bezerro do grupo G2 apresentou sinais neurológicos e lesões histopatológicas de PEM. Dois animais de cada grupo foram eutanasiados. Lesões microscópicas foram observadas nos bezerros do G2. Histologicamente as alterações observadas foram necrose neuronal cortical e lesões hemorrágicas nos núcleos basais, tálamo, mesencéfalo, ponte e bulbo. O protocolo experimental constituído por uma dieta rica em carboidrato de alta fermentação, baixa quantidade de fibra efetiva e altos níveis de enxofre (0,52%) ocasionou alterações clinicas e histológicas e elevadas concentrações de sulfeto de hidrogênio ruminal compatíveis com quadro de intoxicação por enxofre.

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Objective: Alterations in the size of the [CAG](n) repeats of the AR gene have been described in several types tumors. The purpose of this study was to evaluate if there is an association between the AR [CAG](n) repeat alleles and the relative risk for head and neck cancer and to analyse microsatellite instability (MSI) and loss of heterozygosity (LOH) in these tumors.Design: Matched samples of blood and head and neck tumors were evaluated using two methodologies, silver-stained gels to perform the analyses of MSI and LOH, and automated analysis to confirm these results and for genotyping of the AR [CAG](n), repeat length. Sixty-nine individuals without cancer were used as a control group for both procedures. The Log-rank test was used to compare overall survival and disease-free survival curves. The Cox proportional hazards regression models were performed to determine the [CAG], repeats as an independent prognostic factor.Results: Patients with alleles <= 20 in the male group showed a correlation with lower disease-free survival (P = 0.0325) and with recurrence or metastasis (RR 2.52, CI 95%). in the female group, the allele 2 (longer allele) showed a significant lower mean of [CAG](n), repeat when compared to the control group. Microsatellite instability was detected in nine cases in both procedures. In six out of these nine cases, we observed a reduction of the AR [CAG](n) repeat length. LOH was detected in one out of 17 women informative for oral cancer in both procedures.Conclusion: These results suggest that short [CAG](n) repeat length (: 20) polymorphism is associated with poor prognosis in a subset of male patients with head and neck cancer and that AR gene microsatellite instability is uncommon in these tumors. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

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Testamos o efeito da betaína na performance de crescimento do peixe piauçu. Para tal, 21 espécimes (média ± DP: peso corpóreo: 14,9 ± 1,3 g) foram distribuídos aleatoriamente em um entre três tratamentos (n = 7 cada; 1 peixe/aquário): ração sem acréscimo de betaína (controle), 3,6 g betaína/Kg de ração, 7,1 g betaína/Kg de ração. Os peixes foram submetidos às condições experimentais por 60 dias. Os peixes apresentaram crescimento estatisticamente significativo ao longo do experimento, porém nenhuma diferença estatística foi encontrada para qualquer parâmetro analisado, exceto para o fator de condição o qual foi maior no grupo controle do que nos grupos tratados com betaína. de acordo com isso, concluímos que a betaína não melhora o crescimento do piauçu.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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A portable or field test method for simultaneous spectrophotometric determination of calcium and magnesium in water using multivariate partial least squares (PLS) calibration methods is proposed. The method is based on the reaction between the analytes and methylthymol blue at pH 11. The spectral information was used as the X-block, and the Ca(II) and Mg(II) concentrations obtained by a reference technique (ICP-AES) were used as the Y-block. Two series of analyses were performed, with a month's difference between them. The first series was used as the calibration set and the second one as the validation set. Multivariate statistical process control (MSPC) techniques, based on statistics from principal component models, were used to study the features and evolution with time of the spectral signals. Signal standardization was used to correct the deviations between series. Method validation was performed by comparing the predictions of the PLS model with the reference Ca(II) and Mg(II) concentrations determined by ICP-AES using the joint interval test for the slope and intercept of the regression line with errors in both axes. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.