Sparse hierarchical Bayesian models for detecting relevant antigenic sites in virus evolution

Understanding how virus strains offer protection against closely related emerging strains is vital for creating effective vaccines. For many viruses, including Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus (FMDV) and the Influenza virus where multiple serotypes often co-circulate, in vitro testing of large numbers of vaccines can be infeasible. Therefore the development of an in silico predictor of cross-protection between strains is important to help optimise vaccine choice. Vaccines will offer cross-protection against closely related strains, but not against those that are antigenically distinct. To be able to predict cross-protection we must understand the antigenic variability within a virus serotype, distinct lineages of a virus, and identify the antigenic residues and evolutionary changes that cause the variability. In this thesis we present a family of sparse hierarchical Bayesian models for detecting relevant antigenic sites in virus evolution (SABRE), as well as an extended version of the method, the extended SABRE (eSABRE) method, which better takes into account the data collection process. The SABRE methods are a family of sparse Bayesian hierarchical models that use spike and slab priors to identify sites in the viral protein which are important for the neutralisation of the virus. In this thesis we demonstrate how the SABRE methods can be used to identify antigenic residues within different serotypes and show how the SABRE method outperforms established methods, mixed-effects models based on forward variable selection or l1 regularisation, on both synthetic and viral datasets. In addition we also test a number of different versions of the SABRE method, compare conjugate and semi-conjugate prior specifications and an alternative to the spike and slab prior; the binary mask model. We also propose novel proposal mechanisms for the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, which improve mixing and convergence over that of the established component-wise Gibbs sampler. The SABRE method is then applied to datasets from FMDV and the Influenza virus in order to identify a number of known antigenic residue and to provide hypotheses of other potentially antigenic residues. We also demonstrate how the SABRE methods can be used to create accurate predictions of the important evolutionary changes of the FMDV serotypes. In this thesis we provide an extended version of the SABRE method, the eSABRE method, based on a latent variable model. The eSABRE method takes further into account the structure of the datasets for FMDV and the Influenza virus through the latent variable model and gives an improvement in the modelling of the error. We show how the eSABRE method outperforms the SABRE methods in simulation studies and propose a new information criterion for selecting the random effects factors that should be included in the eSABRE method; block integrated Widely Applicable Information Criterion (biWAIC). We demonstrate how biWAIC performs equally to two other methods for selecting the random effects factors and combine it with the eSABRE method to apply it to two large Influenza datasets. Inference in these large datasets is computationally infeasible with the SABRE methods, but as a result of the improved structure of the likelihood, we are able to show how the eSABRE method offers a computational improvement, leading it to be used on these datasets. The results of the eSABRE method show that we can use the method in a fully automatic manner to identify a large number of antigenic residues on a variety of the antigenic sites of two Influenza serotypes, as well as making predictions of a number of nearby sites that may also be antigenic and are worthy of further experiment investigation.

Bayesian Linear Regression for estimation of the Fractal Dimension of the Cerebral Cortex

The cerebral cortex presents self-similarity in a proper interval of spatial scales, a property typical of natural objects exhibiting fractal geometry. Its complexity therefore can be characterized by the value of its fractal dimension (FD). In the computation of this metric, it has usually been employed a frequentist approach to probability, with point estimator methods yielding only the optimal values of the FD. In our study, we aimed at retrieving a more complete evaluation of the FD by utilizing a Bayesian model for the linear regression analysis of the box-counting algorithm. We used T1-weighted MRI data of 86 healthy subjects (age 44.2 ± 17.1 years, mean ± standard deviation, 48% males) in order to gain insights into the confidence of our measure and investigate the relationship between mean Bayesian FD and age. Our approach yielded a stronger and significant (P < .001) correlation between mean Bayesian FD and age as compared to the previous implementation. Thus, our results make us suppose that the Bayesian FD is a more truthful estimation for the fractal dimension of the cerebral cortex compared to the frequentist FD.

Gravitational waves as dark sirens: an astrophysical and cosmological analysis

Despite the success of the ΛCDM model in describing the Universe, a possible tension between early- and late-Universe cosmological measurements is calling for new independent cosmological probes. Amongst the most promising ones, gravitational waves (GWs) can provide a self-calibrated measurement of the luminosity distance. However, to obtain cosmological constraints, additional information is needed to break the degeneracy between parameters in the gravitational waveform. In this thesis, we exploit the latest LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-3) of GW sources to constrain the background cosmological parameters together with the astrophysical properties of Binary Black Holes (BBHs), using information from their mass distribution. We expand the public code MGCosmoPop, previously used for the application of this technique, by implementing a state-of-the-art model for the mass distribution, needed to account for the presence of non-trivial features, i.e. a truncated power law with two additional Gaussian peaks, referred to as Multipeak. We then analyse GWTC-3 comparing this model with simpler and more commonly adopted ones, both in the case of fixed and varying cosmology, and assess their goodness-of-fit with different model selection criteria, and their constraining power on the cosmological and population parameters. We also start to explore different sampling methods, namely Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Nested Sampling, comparing their performances and evaluating the advantages of both. We find concurring evidence that the Multipeak model is favoured by the data, in line with previous results, and show that this conclusion is robust to the variation of the cosmological parameters. We find a constraint on the Hubble constant of H0 = 61.10+38.65−22.43 km/s/Mpc (68% C.L.), which shows the potential of this method in providing independent constraints on cosmological parameters. The results obtained in this work have been included in [1].

Spectral distortions of the cosmic microwave background and small-scale gravitational waves as new windows on the Early Universe

In this thesis, we explore constraints which can be put on the primordial power spectrum of curvature perturbations beyond the scales probed by anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background and galaxy surveys. We exploit present and future measurements of CMB spectral distortions, and their synergy with CMB anisotropies, as well existing and future upper limits on the stochastic background of gravitational waves. We derive for the first time phenomenological templates that fit small-scale bumps in the primordial power spectrum generated in multi-field models of inflation. By using such templates, we study for the first time imprints of primordial peaks on anisotropies and spectral distortions of the cosmic microwave background and we investigate their contribution to the stochastic background of gravitational waves. Through a Monte Carlo Markov Chain analysis we infer for the first time the constraints on the amplitude, the width and the location of such bumps using Planck and FIRAS data. We also forecast how a future spectrometer like PIXIE could improve FIRAS boundaries. The results derived in this thesis have implications for the possibility of primordial black holes from inflation.

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

First report on the kinetics of the uncatalyzed esterification of cellulose under homogeneous reaction conditions: a rationale for the effect of carboxylic acid anhydride chain-length on the degree of biopolymer substitution

The kinetics of the homogeneous acylation of microcrystalline cellulose, MCC, with carboxylic acid anhydrides with different acyl chain-length (Nc; ethanoic to hexanoic) in LiCl/N,N-dimethylacetamide have been studied by conductivity measurements from 65 to 85 A degrees C. We have employed cyclohexylmethanol, CHM, and trans-1,2-cyclohexanediol, CHD, as model compounds for the hydroxyl groups of the anhydroglucose unit of cellulose. The ratios of rate constants of acylation of primary (CHM; Prim-OH) and secondary (CHD; Sec-OH) groups have been employed, after correction, in order to split the overall rate constants of the reaction of MCC into contributions from the discrete OH groups. For the model compounds, we have found that k((Prim-OH))/k((Sec-OH)) > 1, akin to reactions of cellulose under heterogeneous conditions; this ratio increases as a function of increasing Nc. The overall, and partial rate constants of the acylation of MCC decrease from ethanoic- to butanoic-anhydride and then increase for pentanoic- and hexanoic anhydride, due to subtle changes in- and compensations of the enthalpy and entropy of activation.

Lp Microlocal Supercritical Markov Branching Processes with Non-Homogeneous Poisson Immigration

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80.

Synthesis of waterborne polyurethane-urea dispersions with chain extension step in homogeneous and heterogeneous media

Hypothesis: The possibility of tailoring the final properties of environmentally friendly waterborne polyurethane and polyurethane-urea dispersions and the films they produce makes them attractive for a wide range of applications. Both the reagents content and the synthesis route contribute to the observed final properties. Experiments: A series of polyurethane-urea and polyurethane aqueous dispersions were synthesized using 1,2-ethanediamine and/or 1,4-butanediol as chain extenders. The diamine content was varied from 0 to 4.5 wt%. Its addition was carried out either by the classical heterogeneous reaction medium (after phase inversion step), or else by the alternative homogeneous medium (prior to dispersion formation). Dispersions as well as films prepared from dispersions have been later extensively characterized. Findings: 1,2-Ethanediamine addition in heterogeneous medium leads to dispersions with high particle sizes and broad distributions whereas in homogeneous medium, lower particle sizes and narrow distributions were observed, thus leading to higher uniformity and cohesiveness among particles during film formation. Thereby, stress transfer is favored adding the diamine in a homogeneous medium; and thus the obtained films presented quite higher stress and modulus values. Furthermore, the higher uniformity of films tends to hinder water molecules transport through the film, resulting, in general, in a lower water absorption capacity.

Quasistationarity of continuous-time Markov chains with positive drift

We shall study continuous-time Markov chains on the nonnegative integers which are both irreducible and transient, and which exhibit discernible stationarity before drift to infinity sets in. We will show how this 'quasi' stationary behaviour can be modelled using a limiting conditional distribution: specifically, the limiting state probabilities conditional on not having left 0 for the last time. By way of a dual chain, obtained by killing the original process on last exit from 0, we invoke the theory of quasistationarity for absorbing Markov chains. We prove that the conditioned state probabilities of the original chain are equal to the state probabilities of its dual conditioned on non-absorption, thus allowing us to establish the simultaneous existence and then equivalence, of their limiting conditional distributions. Although a limiting conditional distribution for the dual chain is always a quasistationary distribution in the usual sense, a similar statement is not possible for the original chain.

Tetranuclear COPPER(II) complexes with macrocyclic and open-chain disiloxane ligands as catalyst precursors for hydrocarboxylation and oxidation of alkanes and 1-phenylethanol

Two new tetranuclear complexes [Cu-4(mu-O)(L-1)-Cl-4] and [Cu-4(mu(4)-O)(L-2)(2)Cl-4] (2), where H2L1 is a macrocyclic ligand resulting from [2+2] condensation of 2,6-diformy1-4-methylphanol (DFF) and 1,3-bis(aminopropy1)tetramethyldisiloxane, and HL2 is a 1:2 condensation product: of DFF with trimethylsilyl p-aminobenzoate, have been prepared. The structures of the products were established by Xray diffraction. The complexes have been characterised by FTIR, UV/Vis spectroscopy, ES1 mass-spectrometry and magnetic susceptibility measurements. The latter revealed that the letrftriuclear complexes can be descr bed as two ferromagnetically coupled dinuclear units, in which the two copper(II) ions interact antiferromacinetically. The ccimpi.iunds act as homogeneous catalyst precursors for a number of single-pot reactions, including (I) hydrocarbaxylation, with CO, H2O and K2S2O8, of a variety of linear and cyclic (n = 5-8) alkanes into the corresponding Cn+1 carboxylic acids, (ii) peroxidative oxidation of cyclohexane, and (iii) solvent-free microwave-assisted oxidation of 1-phenyletha.nol.

Frequency of Infection of Lutzomyia Phlebotomines with Leishmania braziliensis in a Brazilian Endemic Area as Assessed by Pinpoint Capture and Polymerase Chain Reaction

Leishmania infected of Lutzomyia spp. are rare in endemic areas. We tested the hypothesis that there is clustering of infected vectors by combining pinpoint capture with sensitive L. braziliensis kDNA minicircle specific PCR/dot blot in an endemic area in the State of Bahia. Thirty out of 335 samples (10 to 20 sand flies/sample; total of 4,027 female sand flies) were positive by PCR analysis and dot blot leading to a underestimated overall rate of 0.4% positive phlebotomines. However, 83.3% of the positive samples were contributed by a single sector out of four sectors of the whole studied area. This resulted in a rate of 1.5% Leishmania positive phlebotomines for this sector, far above rates of other sectors. Incidence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis cases for this sector was about twice that for other sectors. Our results show that there is a non-homogeneous distribution of Leishmania-infected vectors. Such a clustering may have implications in control strategies against leishmaniasis, and reinforces the necessity of understanding the ecological and geographical factors involved in leishmanial transmission.

Ground-state properties of a dilute homogeneous Bose gas of hard disks in two dimensions

The energy and structure of a dilute hard-disks Bose gas are studied in the framework of a variational many-body approach based on a Jastrow correlated ground-state wave function. The asymptotic behaviors of the radial distribution function and the one-body density matrix are analyzed after solving the Euler equation obtained by a free minimization of the hypernetted chain energy functional. Our results show important deviations from those of the available low density expansions, already at gas parameter values x~0.001 . The condensate fraction in 2D is also computed and found generally lower than the 3D one at the same x.

Homogeneous Assays for Simplified Screening of HLA-conferred Genetic Disease Risk

The increasing incidence of type 1 diabetes has led researchers on a quest to find the reason behind this phenomenon. The rate of increase is too great to be caused simply by changes in the genetic component, and many environmental factors are under investigation for their possible contribution. These studies require, however, the participation of those individuals most likely to develop the disease, and the approach chosen by many is to screen vast populations to find persons with increased genetic risk factors. The participating individuals are then followed for signs of disease development, and their exposure to suspected environmental factors is studied. The main purpose of this study was to find a suitable tool for easy and inexpensive screening of certain genetic risk markers for type 1 diabetes. The method should be applicable to using whole blood dried on sample collection cards as sample material, since the shipping and storage of samples in this format is preferred. However, the screening of vast sample libraries of extracted genomic DNA should also be possible, if such a need should arise, for example, when studying the effect of newly discovered genetic risk markers. The method developed in this study is based on homogeneous assay chemistry and an asymmetrical polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The generated singlestranded PCR product is probed by lanthanide-labelled, LNA (locked nucleic acid)-spiked, short oligonucleotides with exact complementary sequences. In the case of a perfect match, the probe is hybridised to the product. However, if even a single nucleotide difference occurs, the probe is bound instead of the PCR product to a complementary quencher-oligonucleotide labelled with a dabcyl-moiety, causing the signal of the lanthanide label to be quenched. The method was applied to the screening of the well-known type 1 diabetes risk alleles of the HLA-DQB1 gene. The method was shown to be suitable as an initial screening step including thousands of samples in the scheme used in the TEDDY (The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young) study to identify those individuals at increased genetic risk. The method was further developed into dry-reagent form to allow an even simpler approach to screening. The reagents needed in the assay were in dry format in the reaction vessel, and performing the assay required only the addition of the sample and, if necessary, water to rehydrate the reagents. This allows the assay to be successfully executed even by a person with minimal laboratory experience.