An evaluation of a Bayesian method of dose escalation based on bivariate binary responses

Recently, various approaches have been suggested for dose escalation studies based on observations of both undesirable events and evidence of therapeutic benefit. This article concerns a Bayesian approach to dose escalation that requires the user to make numerous design decisions relating to the number of doses to make available, the choice of the prior distribution, the imposition of safety constraints and stopping rules, and the criteria by which the design is to be optimized. Results are presented of a substantial simulation study conducted to investigate the influence of some of these factors on the safety and the accuracy of the procedure with a view toward providing general guidance for investigators conducting such studies. The Bayesian procedures evaluated use logistic regression to model the two responses, which are both assumed to be binary. The simulation study is based on features of a recently completed study of a compound with potential benefit to patients suffering from inflammatory diseases of the lung.

EVALUATION OF METAL TOXICITY BY A MODIFIED METHOD BASED ON THE FUNGUS GERRONEMA VIRIDILUCENS BIOLUMINESCENCE IN AGAR MEDIUM

Metal cation toxicity to basidiomycete fungi is poorly understood, despite its well-known importance in terrestrial ecosystems. Moreover, there is no reported methodology for the routine evaluation of metal toxicity to basidiomycetes. In the present study, we describe the development of a procedure to assess the acute toxicity of metal cations (Na(+), K(+), Li(+), Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Co(2+), Zn(2+), Ni(2+), Mn(2+), Cd(2+), and Cu(2+)) to the bioluminescent basidiomycete fungus Gerronema viridilucens. The method is based on the decrease in the intensity of bioluminescence resulting from injuries sustained by the fungus mycelium exposed to either essential or nonessential metal toxicants. The assay described herein enables LIS to propose a metal toxicity series to Gerronenia viridilucens based on data obtained from the bioluminescence intensity (median effective concentration [EC50] values) versus metal concentration: Cd(2+) > Cu(2+) > Mn(2+) approximate to Ni(2+) approximate to Co(2+) > Zn(2+) > Mg(2+) > Li(+) > K(+) approximate to Na(+) > Ca(2+), and to shed some li-ht on the mechanism of toxic action of metal cations to basidiomycete fungi. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2010;29:320-326. (C) 2009 SETAC

Application of fuzzy logic for the evaluation of livestock slaughtering

A lógica fuzzy admite infinitos valores lógicos intermediários entre o falso e o verdadeiro. Com esse princípio, foi elaborado neste trabalho um sistema baseado em regras fuzzy, que indicam o índice de massa corporal de animais ruminantes com objetivo de obter o melhor momento para o abate. O sistema fuzzy desenvolvido teve como entradas as variáveis massa e altura, e a saída um novo índice de massa corporal, denominado Índice de Massa Corporal Fuzzy (IMC Fuzzy), que poderá servir como um sistema de detecção do momento de abate de bovinos, comparando-os entre si através das variáveis linguísticas )Muito BaixaM, ,BaixaB, ,MédiaM, ,AltaA e Muito AltaM. Para a demonstração e aplicação da utilização deste sistema fuzzy, foi feita uma análise de 147 vacas da raça Nelore, determinando os valores do IMC Fuzzy para cada animal e indicando a situação de massa corpórea de todo o rebanho. A validação realizada do sistema foi baseado em uma análise estatística, utilizando o coeficiente de correlação de Pearson 0,923, representando alta correlação positiva e indicando que o método proposto está adequado. Desta forma, o presente método possibilita a avaliação do rebanho, comparando cada animal do rebanho com seus pares do grupo, fornecendo desta forma um método quantitativo de tomada de decisão para o pecuarista. Também é possível concluir que o presente trabalho estabeleceu um método computacional baseado na lógica fuzzy capaz de imitar parte do raciocínio humano e interpretar o índice de massa corporal de qualquer tipo de espécie bovina e em qualquer região do País.

Study of alternative schemes for the parameterization step of the continuation power flow method based on physical parameters, part II: Performance evaluation

New parameterization schemes have been proposed by the authors in Part I of this paper. In this part these new options for the parameterization of power flow equations are tested, namely, the total power losses (real and reactive), the power at the slack bus (real or reactive), the reactive power at generation buses, and the transmission line power losses (real and reactive). These different parameterization schemes can be used to obtain the maximum loading point without ill-conditioning problems, once the singularity of Jacobian matrix is avoided. The results obtained with the new approach for the IEEE test systems (14, 30, 57, and 118 buses) show that the characteristics of the conventional method are not only preserved but also improved. In addition, it is shown that the proposed method and the conventional one can be switched during the tracing of PV curves to determine, with few iterations, all points of the PV curve. Several tests were also carried out to compare the performance of the proposed parameterization schemes for the continuation power flow method with the use of both the secant and tangent predictors.

Fuzzy rule-based system for evaluation of uncertainty transaction in cassava chain

A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

Performance evaluation of low environmental impact asphalt concretes using the mechanistic empirical design method based on laboratory fatigue and permanent deformation models

The "sustainability" concept relates to the prolonging of human economic systems with as little detrimental impact on ecological systems as possible. Construction that exhibits good environmental stewardship and practices that conserve resources in a manner that allow growth and development to be sustained for the long-term without degrading the environment are indispensable in a developed society. Past, current and future advancements in asphalt as an environmentally sustainable paving material are especially important because the quantities of asphalt used annually in Europe as well as in the U.S. are large. The asphalt industry is still developing technological improvements that will reduce the environmental impact without affecting the final mechanical performance. Warm mix asphalt (WMA) is a type of asphalt mix requiring lower production temperatures compared to hot mix asphalt (HMA), while aiming to maintain the desired post construction properties of traditional HMA. Lowering the production temperature reduce the fuel usage and the production of emissions therefore and that improve conditions for workers and supports the sustainable development. Even the crumb-rubber modifier (CRM), with shredded automobile tires and used in the United States since the mid 1980s, has proven to be an environmentally friendly alternative to conventional asphalt pavement. Furthermore, the use of waste tires is not only relevant in an environmental aspect but also for the engineering properties of asphalt [Pennisi E., 1992]. This research project is aimed to demonstrate the dual value of these Asphalt Mixes in regards to the environmental and mechanical performance and to suggest a low environmental impact design procedure. In fact, the use of eco-friendly materials is the first phase towards an eco-compatible design but it cannot be the only step. The eco-compatible approach should be extended also to the design method and material characterization because only with these phases is it possible to exploit the maximum potential properties of the used materials. Appropriate asphalt concrete characterization is essential and vital for realistic performance prediction of asphalt concrete pavements. Volumetric (Mix design) and mechanical (Permanent deformation and Fatigue performance) properties are important factors to consider. Moreover, an advanced and efficient design method is necessary in order to correctly use the material. A design method such as a Mechanistic-Empirical approach, consisting of a structural model capable of predicting the state of stresses and strains within the pavement structure under the different traffic and environmental conditions, was the application of choice. In particular this study focus on the CalME and its Incremental-Recursive (I-R) procedure, based on damage models for fatigue and permanent shear strain related to the surface cracking and to the rutting respectively. It works in increments of time and, using the output from one increment, recursively, as input to the next increment, predicts the pavement conditions in terms of layer moduli, fatigue cracking, rutting and roughness. This software procedure was adopted in order to verify the mechanical properties of the study mixes and the reciprocal relationship between surface layer and pavement structure in terms of fatigue and permanent deformation with defined traffic and environmental conditions. The asphalt mixes studied were used in a pavement structure as surface layer of 60 mm thickness. The performance of the pavement was compared to the performance of the same pavement structure where different kinds of asphalt concrete were used as surface layer. In comparison to a conventional asphalt concrete, three eco-friendly materials, two warm mix asphalt and a rubberized asphalt concrete, were analyzed. The First Two Chapters summarize the necessary steps aimed to satisfy the sustainable pavement design procedure. In Chapter I the problem of asphalt pavement eco-compatible design was introduced. The low environmental impact materials such as the Warm Mix Asphalt and the Rubberized Asphalt Concrete were described in detail. In addition the value of a rational asphalt pavement design method was discussed. Chapter II underlines the importance of a deep laboratory characterization based on appropriate materials selection and performance evaluation. In Chapter III, CalME is introduced trough a specific explanation of the different equipped design approaches and specifically explaining the I-R procedure. In Chapter IV, the experimental program is presented with a explanation of test laboratory devices adopted. The Fatigue and Rutting performances of the study mixes are shown respectively in Chapter V and VI. Through these laboratory test data the CalME I-R models parameters for Master Curve, fatigue damage and permanent shear strain were evaluated. Lastly, in Chapter VII, the results of the asphalt pavement structures simulations with different surface layers were reported. For each pavement structure, the total surface cracking, the total rutting, the fatigue damage and the rutting depth in each bound layer were analyzed.

Evaluation of a solid phase microextraction method for community-based monitoring of 1,3-butadiene and benzene in Houston, Texas

The Houston region is home to arguably the largest petrochemical and refining complex anywhere. The effluent of this complex includes many potentially hazardous compounds. Study of some of these compounds has led to recognition that a number of known and probable carcinogens are at elevated levels in ambient air. Two of these, benzene and 1,3-butadiene, have been found in concentrations which may pose health risk for residents of Houston.^ Recent popular journalism and publications by local research institutions has increased the interest of the public in Houston's air quality. Much of the literature has been critical of local regulatory agencies' oversight of industrial pollution. A number of citizens in the region have begun to volunteer with air quality advocacy groups in the testing of community air. Inexpensive methods exist for monitoring of ozone, particulate matter and airborne toxic ambient concentrations. This study is an evaluation of a technique that has been successfully applied to airborne toxics.^ This technique, solid phase microextraction (SPME), has been used to measure airborne volatile organic hydrocarbons at community-level concentrations. It is has yielded accurate and rapid concentration estimates at a relatively low cost per sample. Examples of its application to measurement of airborne benzene exist in the literature. None have been found for airborne 1,3-butadiene. These compounds were selected for an evaluation of SPME as a community-deployed technique, to replicate previous application to benzene, to expand application to 1,3-butadiene and due to the salience of these compounds in this community. ^ This study demonstrates that SPME is a useful technique for quantification of 1,3-butadiene at concentrations observed in Houston. Laboratory background levels precluded recommendation of the technique for benzene. One type of SPME fiber, 85 μm Carboxen/PDMS, was found to be a sensitive sampling device for 1,3-butadiene under temperature and humidity conditions common in Houston. This study indicates that these variables affect instrument response. This suggests the necessity of calibration within specific conditions of these variables. While deployment of this technique was less expensive than other methods of quantification of 1,3-butadiene, the complexity of calibration may exclude an SPME method from broad deployment by community groups.^

Design, implementation and evaluation of an unconstrained and contactless biometric system based on hand geometry and stress detection

Esta tesis propone un sistema biométrico de geometría de mano orientado a entornos sin contacto junto con un sistema de detección de estrés capaz de decir qué grado de estrés tiene una determinada persona en base a señales fisiológicas Con respecto al sistema biométrico, esta tesis contribuye con el diseño y la implementación de un sistema biométrico de geometría de mano, donde la adquisición se realiza sin ningún tipo de contacto, y el patrón del usuario se crea considerando únicamente datos del propio individuo. Además, esta tesis propone un algoritmo de segmentación multiescala para solucionar los problemas que conlleva la adquisición de manos en entornos reales. Por otro lado, respecto a la extracción de características y su posterior comparación esta tesis tiene una contribución específica, proponiendo esquemas adecuados para llevar a cabo tales tareas con un coste computacional bajo pero con una alta precisión en el reconocimiento de personas. Por último, este sistema es evaluado acorde a la norma estándar ISO/IEC 19795 considerando seis bases de datos públicas. En relación al método de detección de estrés, esta tesis propone un sistema basado en dos señales fisiológicas, concretamente la tasa cardiaca y la conductancia de la piel, así como la creación de un innovador patrón de estrés que recoge el comportamiento de ambas señales bajo las situaciones de estrés y no-estrés. Además, este sistema está basado en lógica difusa para decidir el grado de estrés de un individuo. En general, este sistema es capaz de detectar estrés de forma precisa y en tiempo real, proporcionando una solución adecuada para sistemas biométricos actuales, donde la aplicación del sistema de detección de estrés es directa para evitar situaciónes donde los individuos sean forzados a proporcionar sus datos biométricos. Finalmente, esta tesis incluye un estudio de aceptabilidad del usuario, donde se evalúa cuál es la aceptación del usuario con respecto a la técnica biométrica propuesta por un total de 250 usuarios. Además se incluye un prototipo implementado en un dispositivo móvil y su evaluación. ABSTRACT: This thesis proposes a hand biometric system oriented to unconstrained and contactless scenarios together with a stress detection method able to elucidate to what extent an individual is under stress based on physiological signals. Concerning the biometric system, this thesis contributes with the design and implementation of a hand-based biometric system, where the acquisition is carried out without contact and the template is created only requiring information from a single individual. In addition, this thesis proposes an algorithm based on multiscale aggregation in order to tackle with the problem of segmentation in real unconstrained environments. Furthermore, feature extraction and matching are also a specific contributions of this thesis, providing adequate schemes to carry out both actions with low computational cost but with certain recognition accuracy. Finally, this system is evaluated according to international standard ISO/IEC 19795 considering six public databases. In relation to the stress detection method, this thesis proposes a system based on two physiological signals, namely heart rate and galvanic skin response, with the creation of an innovative stress detection template which gathers the behaviour of both physiological signals under both stressing and non-stressing situations. Besides, this system is based on fuzzy logic to elucidate the level of stress of an individual. As an overview, this system is able to detect stress accurately and in real-time, providing an adequate solution for current biometric systems, where the application of a stress detection system is direct to avoid situations where individuals are forced to provide the biometric data. Finally, this thesis includes a user acceptability evaluation, where the acceptance of the proposed biometric technique is assessed by a total of 250 individuals. In addition, this thesis includes a mobile implementation prototype and its evaluation.

A soft-computing-based method for the automatic discovery of fuzzy rules in databases:uses for academic research and management support in marketing

The study here highlights the potential that analytical methods based on Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) methodologies have to aid both the resolution of unstructured marketing/business problems and the process of scholarly knowledge discovery. The authors present and discuss the application of KDD in these situations prior to the presentation of an analytical method based on fuzzy logic and evolutionary algorithms, developed to analyze marketing databases and uncover relationships among variables. A detailed implementation on a pre-existing data set illustrates the method. © 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Carbon efficiency evaluation:an analytical framework using fuzzy DEA

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a powerful analytical technique for measuring the relative efficiency of alternatives based on their inputs and outputs. The alternatives can be in the form of countries who attempt to enhance their productivity and environmental efficiencies concurrently. However, when desirable outputs such as productivity increases, undesirable outputs increase as well (e.g. carbon emissions), thus making the performance evaluation questionable. In addition, traditional environmental efficiency has been typically measured by crisp input and output (desirable and undesirable). However, the input and output data, such as CO2 emissions, in real-world evaluation problems are often imprecise or ambiguous. This paper proposes a DEA-based framework where the input and output data are characterized by symmetrical and asymmetrical fuzzy numbers. The proposed method allows the environmental evaluation to be assessed at different levels of certainty. The validity of the proposed model has been tested and its usefulness is illustrated using two numerical examples. An application of energy efficiency among 23 European Union (EU) member countries is further presented to show the applicability and efficacy of the proposed approach under asymmetric fuzzy numbers.

Development and evaluation of a geographic information system based method to estimate flooding susceptibility in an area of Broward County, Florida

The objective of this study was to develop a GIS-based multi-class index overlay model to determine areas susceptible to inland flooding during extreme precipitation events in Broward County, Florida. Data layers used in the method include Airborne Laser Terrain Mapper (ALTM) elevation data, excess precipitation depth determined through performing a Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Curve Number (CN) analysis, and the slope of the terrain. The method includes a calibration procedure that uses "weights and scores" criteria obtained from Hurricane Irene (1999) records, a reported 100-year precipitation event, Doppler radar data and documented flooding locations. Results are displayed in maps of Eastern Broward County depicting types of flooding scenarios for a 100-year, 24-hour storm based on the soil saturation conditions. As expected the results of the multi-class index overlay analysis showed that an increase for the potential of inland flooding could be expected when a higher antecedent moisture condition is experienced. The proposed method proves to have some potential as a predictive tool for flooding susceptibility based on a relatively simple approach.

Application of fuzzy logic for the evaluation of livestock slaughtering

A lógica fuzzy admite infinitos valores lógicos intermediários entre o falso e o verdadeiro. Com esse princípio, foi elaborado neste trabalho um sistema baseado em regras fuzzy, que indicam o índice de massa corporal de animais ruminantes com objetivo de obter o melhor momento para o abate. O sistema fuzzy desenvolvido teve como entradas as variáveis massa e altura, e a saída um novo índice de massa corporal, denominado Índice de Massa Corporal Fuzzy (IMC Fuzzy), que poderá servir como um sistema de detecção do momento de abate de bovinos, comparando-os entre si através das variáveis linguísticas )Muito BaixaM, ,BaixaB, ,MédiaM, ,AltaA e Muito AltaM. Para a demonstração e aplicação da utilização deste sistema fuzzy, foi feita uma análise de 147 vacas da raça Nelore, determinando os valores do IMC Fuzzy para cada animal e indicando a situação de massa corpórea de todo o rebanho. A validação realizada do sistema foi baseado em uma análise estatística, utilizando o coeficiente de correlação de Pearson 0,923, representando alta correlação positiva e indicando que o método proposto está adequado. Desta forma, o presente método possibilita a avaliação do rebanho, comparando cada animal do rebanho com seus pares do grupo, fornecendo desta forma um método quantitativo de tomada de decisão para o pecuarista. Também é possível concluir que o presente trabalho estabeleceu um método computacional baseado na lógica fuzzy capaz de imitar parte do raciocínio humano e interpretar o índice de massa corporal de qualquer tipo de espécie bovina e em qualquer região do País.

Power Transformer Differential Protection Based on Clarke`s Transform and Fuzzy Systems

The power transformer is a piece of electrical equipment that needs continuous monitoring and fast protection since it is very expensive and an essential element for a power system to perform effectively. The most common protection technique used is the percentage differential logic, which provides discrimination between an internal fault and different operating conditions. Unfortunately, there are some operating conditions of power transformers that can affect the protection behavior and the power system stability. This paper proposes the development of a new algorithm to improve the differential protection performance by using fuzzy logic and Clarke`s transform. An electrical power system was modeled using Alternative Transients Program (ATP) software to obtain the operational conditions and fault situations needed to test the algorithm developed. The results were compared to a commercial relay for validation, showing the advantages of the new method.

Embedded DSP-Based Compact Fuzzy System and Its Application for Induction-Motor V/f Speed Control

This paper presents a compact embedded fuzzy system for three-phase induction-motor scalar speed control. The control strategy consists in keeping constant the voltage-frequency ratio of the induction-motor supply source. A fuzzy-control system is built on a digital signal processor, which uses speed error and speed-error variation to change both the fundamental voltage amplitude and frequency of a sinusoidal pulsewidth modulation inverter. An alternative optimized method for embedded fuzzy-system design is also proposed. The controller performance, in relation to reference and load-torque variations, is evaluated by experimental results. A comparative analysis with conventional proportional-integral controller is also achieved.