Exploring Indonesian aquaculture futures

Aquaculture is the fastest-growing food production sector globally, with production projected to double within the next 15–20 years. Future growth of aquaculture is essential to providing sustainable supplies of fish in national, regional and global fish food systems; creating jobs; and maintaining fish at affordable levels for resource-poor consumers. To ensure that the anticipated growth of aquaculture remains both economically and ecologically sustainable, we need to better understand the likely patterns of growth, as well as the opportunities and challenges, that these trends present. This knowledge will enable us to better prioritize investments that will help ensure the sustainable development of the sector. In Indonesia, WorldFish and partners have applied a unique methodology to evaluate growth trajectories for aquaculture under various scenarios, as well as the opportunities and challenges these represent. Indonesia is currently the fourth largest aquaculture producer globally, and the sector needs to grow to meet future fish demand. The study overlapped economic and environmental models with quantitative and participatory approaches to understand the future of aquaculture in Indonesia. Such analyses, while not definitive, have provided new understanding of the future supply and demand for seafood in Indonesia stretching to 2030. The learning from this research provides a foundation for future interventions in Indonesian fish food systems, as well as a suite of methodologies that can be applied more widely for insightful analyses of aquaculture growth trajectories in other countries or regions.

Futures of inland aquatic agricultural systems and implications for fish agri-food systems in southern Africa

The CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) is collaborating with partners to develop and implement a foresight-based engagement with diverse stakeholders linked to aquatic agricultural systems. The program’s aim is to understand the implications of current drivers of change for fish agri-food systems, and consequently food and nutrition security, in Africa, Asia and the Pacific. Partners include the Global Forum on Agricultural Research (GFAR), the Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA) and the African Union’s New Partnership for Africa’s Development (AU-NEPAD). A key part of the program was a participatory scenario-building workshop held in July 2015 under the theme of "futures of aquatic agricultural systems and implications for fish agri-food systems in southern Africa." The objectives for the workshop were (i) to engage local stakeholders in exploring plausible futures of aquatic agricultural systems, and (ii) to broker and catalyze collaborative plans of action based on the foresight analysis. This report presents technical findings from the workshop. The CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) is collaborating with partners to develop and implement a foresight-based engagement with diverse stakeholders linked to aquatic agricultural systems. The program’s aim is to understand the implications of current drivers of change for fish agri-food systems, and consequently food and nutrition security, in Africa, Asia and the Pacific. Partners include the Global Forum on Agricultural Research (GFAR), the Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA) and the African Union’s New Partnership for Africa’s Development (AU-NEPAD). A key part of the program was a participatory scenario-building workshop held in July 2015 under the theme of "futures of aquatic agricultural systems and implications for fish agri-food systems in southern Africa." The objectives for the workshop were (i) to engage local stakeholders in exploring plausible futures of aquatic agricultural systems, and (ii) to broker and catalyze collaborative plans of action based on the foresight analysis. This report presents technical findings from the workshop.

The price of pain and the value of suffering.

Estimating the financial value of pain informs issues as diverse as the market price of analgesics, the cost-effectiveness of clinical treatments, compensation for injury, and the response to public hazards. Such valuations are assumed to reflect a stable trade-off between relief of discomfort and money. Here, using an auction-based health-market experiment, we show that the price people pay for relief of pain is strongly determined by the local context of the market, that is, by recent intensities of pain or immediately disposable income (but not overall wealth). The absence of a stable valuation metric suggests that the dynamic behavior of health markets is not predictable from the static behavior of individuals. We conclude that the results follow the dynamics of habit-formation models of economic theory, and thus, this study provides the first scientific basis for this type of preference modeling.

Designing Inclusive Futures

This book is the result of the fourth CWUAAT workshop held in Cambridge, England in April 2008.