Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Slip complexity in earthquake fault models.

We summarize studies of earthquake fault models that give rise to slip complexities like those in natural earthquakes. For models of smooth faults between elastically deformable continua, it is critical that the friction laws involve a characteristic distance for slip weakening or evolution of surface state. That results in a finite nucleation size, or coherent slip patch size, h*. Models of smooth faults, using numerical cell size properly small compared to h*, show periodic response or complex and apparently chaotic histories of large events but have not been found to show small event complexity like the self-similar (power law) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics. This conclusion is supported in the present paper by fully inertial elastodynamic modeling of earthquake sequences. In contrast, some models of locally heterogeneous faults with quasi-independent fault segments, represented approximately by simulations with cell size larger than h* so that the model becomes "inherently discrete," do show small event complexity of the Gutenberg-Richter type. Models based on classical friction laws without a weakening length scale or for which the numerical procedure imposes an abrupt strength drop at the onset of slip have h* = 0 and hence always fall into the inherently discrete class. We suggest that the small-event complexity that some such models show will not survive regularization of the constitutive description, by inclusion of an appropriate length scale leading to a finite h*, and a corresponding reduction of numerical grid size.

The organization of seismicity on fault networks.

Although models of homogeneous faults develop seismicity that has a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, this is only a transient state that is followed by events that are strongly influenced by the nature of the boundaries. Models with geometrical inhomogeneities of fracture thresholds can limit the sizes of earthquakes but now favor the characteristic earthquake model for large earthquakes. The character of the seismicity is extremely sensitive to distributions of inhomogeneities, suggesting that statistical rules for large earthquakes in one region may not be applicable to large earthquakes in another region. Model simulations on simple networks of faults with inhomogeneities of threshold develop episodes of lacunarity on all members of the network. There is no validity to the popular assumption that the average rate of slip on individual faults is a constant. Intermediate term precursory activity such as local quiescence and increases in intermediate-magnitude activity at long range are simulated well by the assumption that strong weakening of faults by injection of fluids and weakening of asperities on inhomogeneous models of fault networks is the dominant process; the heat flow paradox, the orientation of the stress field, and the low average stress drop in some earthquakes are understood in terms of the asperity model of inhomogeneous faulting.

Geometric incompatibility in a fault system.

Interdependence between geometry of a fault system, its kinematics, and seismicity is investigated. Quantitative measure is introduced for inconsistency between a fixed configuration of faults and the slip rates on each fault. This measure, named geometric incompatibility (G), depicts summarily the instability near the fault junctions: their divergence or convergence ("unlocking" or "locking up") and accumulation of stress and deformations. Accordingly, the changes in G are connected with dynamics of seismicity. Apart from geometric incompatibility, we consider deviation K from well-known Saint Venant condition of kinematic compatibility. This deviation depicts summarily unaccounted stress and strain accumulation in the region and/or internal inconsistencies in a reconstruction of block- and fault system (its geometry and movements). The estimates of G and K provide a useful tool for bringing together the data on different types of movement in a fault system. An analog of Stokes formula is found that allows determination of the total values of G and K in a region from the data on its boundary. The phenomenon of geometric incompatibility implies that nucleation of strong earthquakes is to large extent controlled by processes near fault junctions. The junctions that have been locked up may act as transient asperities, and unlocked junctions may act as transient weakest links. Tentative estimates of K and G are made for each end of the Big Bend of the San Andreas fault system in Southern California. Recent strong earthquakes Landers (1992, M = 7.3) and Northridge (1994, M = 6.7) both reduced K but had opposite impact on G: Landers unlocked the area, whereas Northridge locked it up again.

Fault location in power distribution networks with distributed generation.

This research presents the development and implementation of fault location algorithms in power distribution networks with distributed generation units installed along their feeders. The proposed algorithms are capable of locating the fault based on voltage and current signals recorded by intelligent electronic devices installed at the end of the feeder sections, information to compute the loads connected to these feeders and their electric characteristics, and the operating status of the network. In addition, this work presents the study of analytical models of distributed generation and load technologies that could contribute to the performance of the proposed fault location algorithms. The validation of the algorithms was based on computer simulations using network models implemented in ATP, whereas the algorithms were implemented in MATLAB.

Fault tolerant embedded systems design by multi-objective optimization

The design of fault tolerant systems is gaining importance in large domains of embedded applications where design constrains are as important as reliability. New software techniques, based on selective application of redundancy, have shown remarkable fault coverage with reduced costs and overheads. However, the large number of different solutions provided by these techniques, and the costly process to assess their reliability, make the design space exploration a very difficult and time-consuming task. This paper proposes the integration of a multi-objective optimization tool with a software hardening environment to perform an automatic design space exploration in the search for the best trade-offs between reliability, cost, and performance. The first tool is commanded by a genetic algorithm which can simultaneously fulfill many design goals thanks to the use of the NSGA-II multi-objective algorithm. The second is a compiler-based infrastructure that automatically produces selective protected (hardened) versions of the software and generates accurate overhead reports and fault coverage estimations. The advantages of our proposal are illustrated by means of a complex and detailed case study involving a typical embedded application, the AES (Advanced Encryption Standard).

3D geometry of growth strata in a fault-propagation fold: insights into space–time evolution of the Crevillente Fault (Abanilla-Alicante sector), Betic Cordillera, Spain

This work presents a 3D geometric model of growth strata cropping out in a fault-propagation fold associated with the Crevillente Fault (Abanilla-Alicante sector) from the Bajo Segura Basin (eastern Betic Cordillera, southern Spain). The analysis of this 3D model enables us to unravel the along-strike and along-section variations of the growth strata, providing constraints to assess the fold development, and hence, the fault kinematic evolution in space and time. We postulate that the observed along-strike dip variations are related to lateral variation in fault displacement. Along-section variations of the progressive unconformity opening angles indicate greater fault slip in the upper Tortonian–Messinian time span; from the Messinian on, quantitative analysis of the unconformity indicate a constant or lower tectonic activity of the Crevillente Fault (Abanilla-Alicante sector); the minor abundance of striated pebbles in the Pliocene-Quaternary units could be interpreted as a decrease in the stress magnitude and consequently in the tectonic activity of the fault. At a regional scale, comparison of the growth successions cropping out in the northern and southern limits of the Bajo Segura Basin points to a southward migration of deformation in the basin. This means that the Bajo Segura Fault became active after the Crevillente Fault (Abanilla-Alicante sector), for which activity on the latter was probably decreasing according to our data. Consequently, we propose that the seismic hazard at the northern limit of the Bajo Segura Basin should be lower than at the southern limit.

Disclosure of Leniency Materials: A Bridge between Public and Private Enforcement of Antitrust Law. Research Paper in Law 08/2013, December

The disclosure of leniency materials held by competition authorities has recently been under the spot. On the one hand, these documents could greatly help cartel victims to prove the damage and the causation link when filing damage actions against cartelists. On the other hand, future cartelists could be deterred from applying for leniency since damage actions could be brought as a result of the information submitted by themselves. Neither the current legislation nor the case law have attained yet to sufficiently clarify how to deal with this clash of interests. Our approach obviously attempts to strike a balance between both interests. But not only that. We see the current debate as a great opportunity to boost the private enforcement of antitrust law through the positive spillovers of leniency programmes. We hence propose to build a bridge between the public and the private enforcement by enabling a partial disclosure of the documents.

Brexit will deepen the fault lines within the EU over mobility. CEPS Commentary, 12 July 2016

Much has been made of the divide that opened up in 2015 between eastern and western member states as a result of acrimonious discussions on how to handle the refugee crisis and distribute asylum applicants across the EU. Against the prevailing political sentiment in certain member state capitals, Germany and France pushed through a plan devised by the European Commission to relocate 120,000 refugees, by a qualified majority vote in the Council. Rather than creating an east/west divide, however, the vote split the group of (relatively) new Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) of the EU into two factions: Romania, Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary voted against the plan, whereas several other CEECs, namely Poland, Bulgaria and the Baltic states, joined the controversial motion on the side of the other (northern, southern and western) member states. Finland abstained. Few member states have shifted their positions in the meantime. If anything, in fact, they have coalesced among the Visegrad 4, following a change of government in Poland; and they have hardened, as a result of new proposals by the Commission to fine member states that refuse to accept refugees. With Hungary’s referendum on the Commission’s relocation scheme scheduled for October 2nd, tensions are set to intensify even further.

Fault diagnosis of an automotive suspension system

With the development of the embedded application and driving assistance systems, it becomes relevant to develop parallel mechanisms in order to check and to diagnose these new systems. In this thesis we focus our research on one of this type of parallel mechanisms and analytical redundancy for fault diagnosis of an automotive suspension system. We have considered a quarter model car passive suspension model and used a parameter estimation, ARX model, method to detect the fault happening in the damper and spring of system. Moreover, afterward we have deployed a neural network classifier to isolate the faults and identifies where the fault is happening. Then in this regard, the safety measurements and redundancies can take into the effect to prevent failure in the system. It is shown that The ARX estimator could quickly detect the fault online using the vertical acceleration and displacement sensor data which are common sensors in nowadays vehicles. Hence, the clear divergence is the ARX response make it easy to deploy a threshold to give alarm to the intelligent system of vehicle and the neural classifier can quickly show the place of fault occurrence.

Fault development and interaction in distributed strike-slip shear zones: an experimental approach

Analogue model experiments using both brittle and viscous materials were performed to investigate the development and interaction of strike-slip faults in zones of distributed shear deformation. At low strain, bulk dextral shear deformation of an initial rectangular model is dominantly accommodated by left-stepping, en echelon strike-slip faults (Riedel shears, R) that form in response to the regional (bulk) stress field. Push-up zones form in the area of interaction between adjacent left-stepping Riedel shears. In cross sections, faults bounding push-up zones have an arcuate shape or merge at depth. Adjacent left-stepping R shears merge by sideways propagation or link by short synthetic shears that strike subparallel to the bulk shear direction. Coalescence of en echelon R shears results in major, through-going faults zones (master faults). Several parallel master faults develop due to the distributed nature of deformation. Spacing between master faults is related to the thickness of the brittle layers overlying the basal viscous layer. Master faults control to a large extent the subsequent fault pattern. With increasing strain, relatively short antithetic and synthetic faults develop mostly between old, but still active master faults. The orientation and evolution of the new faults indicate local modifications of the stress field. In experiments lacking lateral borders, closely spaced parallel antithetic faults (cross faults) define blocks that undergo clockwise rotation about a vertical axis with continuing deformation. Fault development and fault interaction at different stages of shear strain in our models show similarities with natural examples that have undergone distributed shear.